# exchange rate predictions please



## jojo (Sep 20, 2007)

As the title suggests, and I know that our crystal balls arent working too well, but any opinions? ideas? thoughts?

I wanna know!!!!

Jo xx


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## mcginlay (Dec 10, 2008)

*Euro predictions*

The euro seems to have stabilised a little recently. Even a couple of months ago it was fluctuating between 1.14 to 1.01 which is a huge difference. Now it seems to bounce around 1.1 - 1.3. My prediction is that over the next twelve months as the economy shows slight (and I mean slight) signs of improvement in the UK particularly with the housing market the euro will climb slightly to maybe 1.16 to the pound. If the recovery continues it may climb as high as 1.22-1.23. I don't think we will see a £1 to E1.5 for a very long time again. Possibly as long as 5 years. Not great for those people selling properties in Spain and moving back to the UK I know.

We'll have to wait and see. Lots of issues at the moment about the UK being part of the EU. Who knows if we will stay there. I think we will but with the political situation the way it is at the moment anything is possible.


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## SteveHall (Oct 17, 2008)

This is the only occasion ever when I say "The Bloke in the bar has as much idea as the experts" In fact, it was the so-called "experts" who got us into this mess so perhaps we should listen to Bob the Boozer rather than Bart the Banker. 

I have taken almost every last cent out of the banks where their admin charges are almost more than the interest they were offering. I have made all my money on stock markets in the past 15 months. NOT for faint-hearts but ........


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## SteveHall (Oct 17, 2008)

I would say that this is a GREAT time to go back to the UK if you are cash rich. 

Taking 150k euros back a few years ago would only have bought you a 100k sterling house - now you can have a 140K sterling house or the same 100K house and with 30K left over. 

Trouble is that people are trying to sell high and buy low ..... which means little actvity in the market


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## Tallulah (Feb 16, 2009)

Good point Steve - I think I read that opinion on another post as well. If the property that was worth, say, 500k euros in Spain is now going at 350k euros - and the house that was worth £300k in the UK is now worth £250k, then the exchange rate will allow people selling in the UK to buy in the same as when they left, if not better, due to the exchange rate. If they can get a buyer then (I know this is a big IF), i don't see the drop in price here as relevant to that particular manoeuvre. The trick is, as you say, to make sure the price is right.

As for exchange rate prediction, I still think the eurozone has further to go down that the UK, because the UK started its downward spiral earlier. I think we will be hovering around the 1.1/1.2 for the rest of this year.

After that, it will depend on how well central banks can manage the inflationary powers effected by the injection of so much cash into the crisis. If they get it right, we'll hopefully be at 1.20/1.30 by the end of next year. I'd love to see the days of 1.47 to the pound returning, but until the UK becomes attractive to foreign cash and foreign cash is available to invest in the UK in the first place, that ain't gonna happen and that could be who knows how long, if at all. 

Tallulah.x

ps - all this theorising of course goes straight down the toilet if Obama cocks it up. Then we'll be in real trouble for a long time to come.


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## SunnySpain (Jul 30, 2008)

Well Jo, its an interesting question.

My hunch is that the pound will make further gains on the Euros during the rest of the year, but I think these gains may well make little difference.

I can see 1.17 to the pound come the end of the summer, but that will be too little too late for many hard up expats.

Unfortunately I think the Eurozone is in actual fact protecting the economies of certain countries right now, in that if Spain were still dealing in pesetas then the difference in the exchange rates would be considerable.

The fact the Euro exists is good for Spain, but not so good for the expat.


Dave :clap2:


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## jojo (Sep 20, 2007)

I think the eurozone is gonna go down further, I think its strange that none of the spanish banks seem to have been affected by the credit crunch that destroyed so many british and american banks why is that?? or are some of them about to topple????????, so yes, I think they havent hit rock bottom in Spain yet... or other eurozone countries, whereas the UK has, inspite of Mervyn, media, IMF etc. So the pound should recover quite well during the course of this year!!!!!!!!!!hmmmm????

Jo xx


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## jojo (Sep 20, 2007)

.. I also think that very soon now the UK will have to put interest rates up again and that should instill confidence causing the pound to rise?????????

Ever the optimist arent I

Jo xx


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## SunnySpain (Jul 30, 2008)

jojo said:


> .. I also think that very soon now the UK will have to put interest rates up again and that should instill confidence causing the pound to rise?????????
> 
> Ever the optimist arent I
> 
> Jo xx



Like you say Jo, the UK must put the interest rate back up a notch at some point and when it does happen then surely the pound must start to gain further on the Eurozone and quite possibly the Dollar as its over 1.5 again now

So yes, its a very interesting point you make

Dave


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## crookesey (May 22, 2008)

jojo said:


> As the title suggests, and I know that our crystal balls arent working too well, but any opinions? ideas? thoughts?
> 
> I wanna know!!!!
> 
> Jo xx


Jo,

Log into this - [email protected] - I booked my euros a couple of months before our trip last month and got 115.50, it was around 107 during our stay. Their long term prediction doesn't look too good at the moment, but their 2 months one wasn't that hot either (well not for them it wasn't).

We are firming up against both the euro and the dollar, but it is anyones guess whether it is the pound that is strengthening or the other curencies that are weakening, I still anticipate a 125 to 130 rate by the end of this year.


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## jojo (Sep 20, 2007)

is it my imagination or is it creeping up ?????? 1.15 this afternoon

Jo xxx


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## SunnySpain (Jul 30, 2008)

jojo said:


> is it my imagination or is it creeping up ?????? 1.15 this afternoon
> 
> Jo xxx



Yes, thats right, it's now nearly 1.16 and there's talk of 1.25 two months from now

Yippee, come on the pound !


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## jojo (Sep 20, 2007)

YAY!! Its nearly as excting as Barca winning the footie last night LOL

That said, I'm sure Mervyn King will be along anytime now to Pee on it!!!!

Jo xxx


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## Chica (Mar 23, 2009)

Just heard on the BBC news that it is forcasted for the £ against the € will be around €1.30 by the end of the summer. Pleeeeease let it be correct:hail::hail::clap2:


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## Seb* (Mar 22, 2009)

jojo said:


> is it my imagination or is it creeping up ?????? 1.15 this afternoon
> 
> Jo xxx


Yeah, it looks really good now. I was getting my hopes up when we got over 1.13 for the first time in a long while, but usually it just fell back down. But this looks like a really good development


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## SunnySpain (Jul 30, 2008)

Chica said:


> Just heard on the BBC news that it is forcasted for the £ against the € will be around €1.30 by the end of the summer. Pleeeeease let it be correct:hail::hail::clap2:



Well if its true then thats good for expats who plan on staying or buying a property here an also for wanna be expats - the losers will be those expats wanting to sell up and go back to old blighty.


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## crookesey (May 22, 2008)

crookesey said:


> Jo,
> 
> Log into this - [email protected] - I booked my euros a couple of months before our trip last month and got 115.50, it was around 107 during our stay. Their long term prediction doesn't look too good at the moment, but their 2 months one wasn't that hot either (well not for them it wasn't).
> 
> We are firming up against both the euro and the dollar, but it is anyones guess whether it is the pound that is strengthening or the other curencies that are weakening, I still anticipate a 125 to 130 rate by the end of this year.


Remember, you heard it here first, well I've got to be right once in a while, haven't I?


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## Chica (Mar 23, 2009)

crookesey said:


> Remember, you heard it here first, well I've got to be right once in a while, haven't I?


I hope you are crooksey coz I'm holding you to your word:boxing:


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## jojo (Sep 20, 2007)

crookesey said:


> Jo,
> 
> Log into this - [email protected] - I booked my euros a couple of months before our trip last month and got 115.50, it was around 107 during our stay. Their long term prediction doesn't look too good at the moment, but their 2 months one wasn't that hot either (well not for them it wasn't).
> 
> We are firming up against both the euro and the dollar, but it is anyones guess whether it is the pound that is strengthening or the other curencies that are weakening, I still anticipate a 125 to 130 rate by the end of this year.


I want it higher, sooner!!

Jo xx


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## mayotom (Nov 8, 2008)

jojo said:


> I think the eurozone is gonna go down further, I think its strange that none of the spanish banks seem to have been affected by the credit crunch that destroyed so many british and american banks why is that?? or are some of them about to topple????????, so yes, I think they havent hit rock bottom in Spain yet... or other eurozone countries, whereas the UK has, inspite of Mervyn, media, IMF etc. So the pound should recover quite well during the course of this year!!!!!!!!!!hmmmm????


I have to disagree jojo, first of all the American Banks crashed due to excessive greed a contagious disease that the British banks caught, and eventually became their downturn
meanwhile many other banks, Spanish, French, German, Portugues etc took a much more cautious approach and hence didn't expose themselves as much. therefore leaving themselves in a cash rich position when the Greedy banks faltered, therefore allowing them to capitalise by buying the failed banks in England, for pennies. this however may be their downfall as the banks in england were not exposing the full problems at the time. 



> Santander has emerged relatively unscathed from the financial turmoil, picking up swathes of savers searching for safety.


However now the people of this world are looking for safe and reliable investments, the banks seem the be the best place, so what do we need from the bank? Safety and security!! we need to see that that bank has a solid financial future and this is where banks like Santander are winning by getting large deposits strengtening their balance sheets and becoming the the future super bank of the Future. Santander to Scrap British Brands 


:focus:


I agree with Steve, might as well ask the guy in the bar or the dart throwing monkey. 

to many variables, to much lies, to much hidden agendas

Also I would imagine for most people here you now earn your living in EURO so is it not better for you the way it is now, for your trips to the UK. 

jojo I apriciate its different for you if your OH earns in STG



:clap2:


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## crookesey (May 22, 2008)

jojo said:


> I want it higher, sooner!!
> 
> Jo xx


Thats a coincidence Jo, the wife said the very same thing to me last night. 

I once had a moment you know, honest. :focus::focus::focus:


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## jojo (Sep 20, 2007)

crookesey said:


> Thats a coincidence Jo, the wife said the very same thing to me last night.
> 
> I once had a moment you know, honest. :focus::focus::focus:


:lol::laugh:ound:ound:


Jo xxx


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## crookesey (May 22, 2008)

So 16 members of the Euro, some had strong currencies prior to joining and some hadn't. You don't suddenly start to run a good economy by adopting the Euro when you ran a bad one before adopting it.

There has been mention about the Pound strengthening against the Euro, perhaps its more the case of the Euro weakening against the Pound. Poland are about to join, and they have a basket case economy, it will all end in tears, perhaps when Turkey is acceped into the EU and adopts the Euro.

Can you imagine what it would be like if all the North and South American countries adopted a single currency, bedlam comes to mind.

I am now going to up the anti prediction wise, I'm going for a 1.40 Euro by the end od 2010.


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## SunnySpain (Jul 30, 2008)

crookesey said:


> I am now going to up the anti prediction wise, I'm going for a 1.40 Euro by the end od 2010.


Nice thought, but highly unlikely in my opinion.

I predict 1.25 to 1.30 at a push :juggle:


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## willh (Nov 11, 2008)

SunnySpain said:


> Nice thought, but highly unlikely in my opinion.
> 
> I predict 1.25 to 1.30 at a push :juggle:


1.2 by end of November...


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## jojo (Sep 20, 2007)

the media were predicting 1.2 by the end of June??????????? however its bobbing about a bit at the mo, possibly cos of some "european car buy out plan" just announced or summat??????

Jo


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## crookesey (May 22, 2008)

SunnySpain said:


> Nice thought, but highly unlikely in my opinion.
> 
> I predict 1.25 to 1.30 at a push :juggle:


You will see your 1.30 prediction by the end of this year.


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## SunnySpain (Jul 30, 2008)

It seems the pound is doing better this week, 1 pound = 1.16 euros

More of the same please, keep it coming baby...


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## jeremyaskew (Feb 25, 2009)

A very current question, it's one of the first expats I meet want to discuss with me. My answer? Expect more of the same - continued fluctuations. If you're transferring money then smooth out these fluctuations by setting up an account with someone like Moneycorp who offer much lower fees and spreads. In the end no-one can know for sure day to day or month to month where the rate will go there are simply too many factors to consider. One thing is for sure and that is over the longer term (10 years+) Sterling has been dropping in value. I expect that to continue.
Regards
Jeremy


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## mayotom (Nov 8, 2008)

jeremyaskew said:


> A very current question, it's one of the first expats I meet want to discuss with me. My answer? Expect more of the same - continued fluctuations. If you're transferring money then smooth out these fluctuations by setting up an account with someone like Moneycorp who offer much lower fees and spreads. In the end no-one can know for sure day to day or month to month where the rate will go there are simply too many factors to consider. One thing is for sure and that is over the longer term (10 years+) Sterling has been dropping in value. I expect that to continue.
> Regards
> Jeremy



have also used HIFX for this, service they will set the rate for long periods of time



.


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## chrisnation (Mar 2, 2009)

Predictions/schmictions. 

I had a double-degree Sorbonne economics graduate living in my house working for GE Capital and now reading the runes at BNP Paribas in Gay Paree. When I asked him why I had been getting Euros 1.76 for a quid in 2000 and now it is down to about parity he said he didn't know and nobody else does either. And neither he nor anyone else has any idea which way it will all go. An honest economist: this is the man to listen to.

The result of this is clear. Forget trying to second guess ForEx. Do what you gotta do when you need to do it. The devil take the hindmost.

Though I will say that when the £ was all the way up in the mid 1.70's back-along, I told a mate that I was going to swap all my dosh into Euros [I had about £120k in the bank then and was living as sofa-bed man] because I thought that the rate was unsustainable. He told me not to mess with stuff I knew nothing about. Being a stupid person, I listened to him. Now that I'm ready to get a little somewhere in Valencia, my £150k house is worth, well, about Euros 150k by the time the extra few % has gone in fees.


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## jojo (Sep 20, 2007)

well the pounds been bobbing about a bit thie last week or so cos of the elections and the "gordon the moron" business. But it seems to be picking up everso slightly??? 1.16 this morning????



Jo xx


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## SunnySpain (Jul 30, 2008)

jojo said:


> well the pounds been bobbing about a bit thie last week or so cos of the elections and the "gordon the moron" business. But it seems to be picking up everso slightly??? 1.16 this morning????
> 
> Jo xx



Hurrah - Today the pound was equal to 1.18 euros

Thats better, keep going just a little bit more please...and then some..


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## jojo (Sep 20, 2007)

SunnySpain said:


> Hurrah - Today the pound was equal to 1.18 euros
> 
> Thats better, keep going just a little bit more please...and then some..


It´s sad how excited I am about all this. I'm hoping it might actually hit 1.20+€ by the end of the month??? 

Jo xxx


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## SunnySpain (Jul 30, 2008)

jojo said:


> It´s sad how excited I am about all this. I'm hoping it might actually hit 1.20+€ by the end of the month???
> 
> Jo xxx


Nah, it'll be more like 1.22 :juggle:by that time


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## jojo (Sep 20, 2007)

SunnySpain said:


> Nah, it'll be more like 1.22 :juggle:by that time


oooh, what a wonderful thought!!! And when the Balti nations join the EU, what on earth will that do to the euro?? then of course you have the UK ecconomy apparently picking up and with that maybe a raise in the interest rates over there and...... woosh!!!!!?? Well you never know??????

Jo xxx


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## SunnySpain (Jul 30, 2008)

jojo said:


> oooh, what a wonderful thought!!! And when the Balti nations join the EU, what on earth will that do to the euro??
> 
> Jo xxx


Cor blimey missus, the "Balti nations" are joining the Eurozone, what will that do to the price of the average vindaloo


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## jojo (Sep 20, 2007)

SunnySpain said:


> Cor blimey missus, the "Balti nations" are joining the Eurozone, what will that do to the price of the average vindaloo


Hey, thats if I've got my facts right... !!????????

Jo xxx


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## SunnySpain (Jul 30, 2008)

jojo said:


> Hey, thats if I've got my facts right... !!????????
> 
> Jo xxx


lane: yep straight your head

:focus:


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## mayotom (Nov 8, 2008)

SunnySpain said:


> Cor blimey missus, the "Balti nations" are joining the Eurozone, what will that do to the price of the average vindaloo


That't not looking likely for a few years, their economies are nowhere near been able to meet the criteria for entry. and they have a long way to go before recovery. look at lituania as an example GDP has dropped by over 30% already this year.


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## crookesey (May 22, 2008)

Crown Currency Exchange are offering 1.19 for delivery on 21st September, me thinks that I will wait until the end of July and see if it's closing in on 1.30, hopeful I know, but its only 11 cents off now.


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