# You Can't Fix $*****



## Asian Spirit (Mar 1, 2010)

*Duterte policy to erode US influence in South China Sea*



The Duterte administration’s “independent” foreign policy should not be belittled or underestimated, as it could “substantially” undermine the influence of the United States, a long-time ally and... Read More 

(source: INQ News)


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## fmartin_gila (May 15, 2011)

Yep Keeping an eye on it and wondering where this is leading and what the consequences will be.

Fred


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## Ram1957 (Oct 14, 2014)

Duterte would face obstacles in cutting US arms reliance: analysts | ABS-CBN News

I don't think it will be as easy as some think.


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## EuroBob (Feb 23, 2015)

I wonder if this current tactic could be used in a careful balance which allowed the Philippines to have more positive discussions with China without losing the benefit of the Mutual Defence Treaty with the U.S. .


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## M.C.A. (Feb 24, 2013)

The exchange rate seems to improve with every off the cuff word against the US ... but I had a dream years ago that I might need to exit through the US Embassy and it looked like a very bad event was happening, my dream seemed to show huge unrest. 

There couldn't be two more opposites when it comes to politics between the US Administration and the Philippine and so much time to make things worse before a new US Administration change in January.


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## esv1226 (Mar 13, 2014)

I think Duterte simply wants to appear tough. He wants to save face with locals and does not know how to respond to US criticism. I think the White House response - down play it - is spot on.


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## Asian Spirit (Mar 1, 2010)

EuroBob said:


> I wonder if this current tactic could be used in a careful balance which allowed the Philippines to have more positive discussions with China without losing the benefit of the Mutual Defense Treaty with the U.S. .


China probably thinks it will be easy to get the best deal out of whatever happens dealing with this president. At the same time, I think China will cooperate and play along but only as long as they think they are getting the upper hand.
If nothing else, we are getting a front row seat watching real world politics work and how it plays out.


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## EuroBob (Feb 23, 2015)

Jet Lag said:


> China probably thinks it will be easy to get the best deal out of whatever happens dealing with this president. At the same time, I think China will cooperate and play along but only as long as they think they are getting the upper hand.
> If nothing else, we are getting a front row seat watching real world politics work and how it plays out.


Agreed.
I see the huge resource benefit which China is able to claim if they occupy the locations of dispute.
The only way China would relinquish the locations would be to either be denied the benefit 
or if the benefits became outweighed by costs.

The benefits include fish and petroleum, so one would have to figure out a way to limit China's ability to fish and drill/produce.

Sabers will rattle, but the military option is off the table because it is not worth the cost.

Perhaps blockades and other impediments could be utilized to block oil production, but that would get very tense and bring us close to physical conflict.

The only possible way to pursue this issue, without increasing the chance for conflict to an unacceptable risk level is probably through international pressure. Perhaps if China can be made to feel that their reputation is being unacceptably impacted in a negative way they would decide to change their course of action.
I doubt it because their desire for additional sources of petroleum and fish is incredibly large.

(All of the above is just an opinion of some layman on a keyboard. op2: )


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## Asian Spirit (Mar 1, 2010)

EuroBob said:


> Agreed.
> I see the huge resource benefit which China is able to claim if they occupy the locations of dispute.
> The only way China would relinquish the locations would be to either be denied the benefit
> or if the benefits became outweighed by costs.
> ...


To keep China out there is one more option. If a half dozen first world countries were to run a complete blockade of the Spratlys so as to keep China out it would work as China would not take on most of the world for the islands. Then during the blockade these islands could be dismantled and destroyed. Problem is that the countries of the world can't seem to organize themselves well enough to do something like that.


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## fmartin_gila (May 15, 2011)

EuroBob said:


> I wonder if this current tactic could be used in a careful balance which allowed the Philippines to have more positive discussions with China without losing the benefit of the Mutual Defence Treaty with the U.S. .


He can only play both sides of the fence for so long, then has to jump one way or the other. Things of this nature have been known to backfire in the past and there is the distinct possibility that he could lose it all, then again he could come out smelling like a rose. As individuals, all we can do is play the waiting game and see how it shakes out.

Fred


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## UltraFJ40 (May 20, 2014)

With his dumb a*s rhetoric, I have zero inclination to participate. He won't be seeing my dollars anytime soon.

I know it's minuscule in the big picture but I have changed plans and am not going to assist in any way. Good luck to him and his crappy uninhibited mouth. Go ahead and kiss the Big Red Dragon....

Our next trip is booked and it's not the PI.  Pura Vida my friends, pura vida. We'll be leaving in a week...Costa Rica will end up with a few more thousand dollars in their coffers and not the Phils, sorry.


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## Asian Spirit (Mar 1, 2010)

UltraFJ40 said:


> With his dumb a*s rhetoric, I have zero inclination to participate. He won't be seeing my dollars anytime soon.
> 
> I know it's minuscule in the big picture but I have changed plans and am not going to assist in any way. Good luck to him and his crappy uninhibited mouth. Go ahead and kiss the Big Red Dragon....
> 
> Our next trip is booked and it's not the PI.  Pura Vida my friends, pura vida. We'll be leaving in a week...Costa Rica will end up with a few more thousand dollars in their coffers and not the Phils, sorry.


There are a lot of people starting to feel the same way you are. Those that are still living in their home countries are canceling trips/vacations here and I would imagine a lot of others are deciding to retire somewhere safer and more stable-at least until things settle down or change here.

It is already effecting the economy with travel and hotels as well as restaurants and stores in the large malls. We went up to SM Mall in Clark/Angeles with our kids a few days ago. Lots of people but very, very few foreigners to be seen and that's extremely unusual for Angeles - Balibago area. Wonder where it will all end..


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## EuroBob (Feb 23, 2015)

Jet Lag said:


> There are a lot of people starting to feel the same way you are. Those that are still living in their home countries are canceling trips/vacations here and I would imagine a lot of others are deciding to retire somewhere safer and more stable-at least until things settle down or change here.
> 
> It is already effecting the economy with travel and hotels as well as restaurants and stores in the large malls. We went up to SM Mall in Clark/Angeles with our kids a few days ago. Lots of people but very, very few foreigners to be seen and that's extremely unusual for Angeles - Balibago area. Wonder where it will all end..


Yes. Money is being pulled out of the stock market and businesses and now tourism is being reduced. Hence, the Philippine Peso is dropping in value. 

Even though the Philippines has conflict with China, I do expect investments from Chinese to increase, at some point. 
Some of this depends on which new laws are passed regarding opening up of business opportunities to foreigners. 
This will be a two edged sword for the Philippines.


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## Gary D (Oct 28, 2013)

The time to worry is when there is a lot of Chinese moving into the Philippines, after a couple of years they will start kicking up that they are being persecuted and are fearfull of their lives, then the Red army moves in to protect their citizens. Tibet and Ukrane being a couple of recent examples.


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## EuroBob (Feb 23, 2015)

Gary D said:


> The time to worry is when there is a lot of Chinese moving into the Philippines, after a couple of years they will start kicking up that they are being persecuted and are fearfull of their lives, then the Red army moves in to protect their citizens. Tibet and Ukrane being a couple of recent examples.


Tibet and The Ukraine are certainly examples worth noting.
However, also look to Cambodia, Laos, and now Thailand for more recent examples of how China extends its influence into established countries in Asia.


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