# Another question about the September elections



## skip o (Aug 1, 2011)

I have read articles stating that if Junts pel Si "wins" in Cataluña, that they will begin the secession process. My question is, what is "winning?" Simply getting the most votes compared to the other parties? Or does "winning" mean a majority, as in over 50%? 

Catalan independence: Catalan secessionists threaten immediate independence after election | In English | EL PAÃ�S


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## mickbcn (Feb 4, 2013)

In democracy win the 50%+1.


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## alborino (Dec 13, 2014)

mickbcn said:


> In democracy win the 50%+1.


But that tells only a very small part of the story.

If there is an elected pro independence grouping, it doesn't need be one party, then that group will set the agenda - and setting the agenda is important. Then they will need to ensure that a referendum now independence could be a reality and not a pipe dream can be assured (something the Scot Nats failed to do - from the polls many Scots said yes when asked but voted No). Then they would have to decide on a strategy based on a legal battle against the constitution or to declare independence unilaterally.

And there would be again great debate on EU membership and share of national debt.

So while an election win would put the cat among the pigeons (a good analogy I think ) it would be a step on a long road.


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## mickbcn (Feb 4, 2013)

alborino said:


> But that tells only a very small part of the story.
> 
> If there is an elected pro independence grouping, it doesn't need be one party, then that group will set the agenda - and setting the agenda is important. Then they will need to ensure that a referendum now independence could be a reality and not a pipe dream can be assured (something the Scot Nats failed to do - from the polls many Scots said yes when asked but voted No). Then they would have to decide on a strategy based on a legal battle against the constitution or to declare independence unilaterally.
> 
> ...


Well .we must wait until the 27th september and then see what happend if we (the independentist )are majority then we will be unestopable, the everfescence and ilusion here is incredible,because is the most important oportunity in the 300 years.and is not only for the money as the spanish media say,is for the continuous attacks against our language,our structures and our economy, and now we say, enough is enough, we are not against the spaniards we are against the governments descendents of Franco and the aristocratic familys who are in the power of Spain for hundreds of years.


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## alborino (Dec 13, 2014)

mickbcn said:


> Well .we must wait until the 27th september and then see what happend if we (the independentist )are majority then we will be unestopable, the everfescence and ilusion here is incredible,because is the most important oportunity in the 300 years.and is not only for the money as the spanish media say,is for the continuous attacks against our language,our structures and our economy, and now we say, enough is enough, we are not against the spaniards we are against the governments descendents of Franco and the aristocratic familys who are in the power of Spain for hundreds of years.


Yes the build up, enthusiasm and drive among supporters is there. And if I was catalan I'd want out. But that is not enough.

As we saw in Scotland many will drink Whisky/Cava and wave flags but then in the cold light of day vote with their brain in gear. And the question they will ask is (sadly) "what is in it for me?"

So a good story needs to be woven that addresses the EU and the debt questions among several others. And Catalunya has a mixed population. Many Adaluz live and work in Catalunya. It isn't those born in Catalunya that matter, it is those resident in Catalunya. 

And a question I have. Have they addressed how those not resident but born in Catalunya would be treated? And simply saying they can apply is not good enough. The financial implications need to be considered.

But I wish you the very best on what will be a very long and difficult road :fingerscrossed:


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## mickbcn (Feb 4, 2013)

If we get the independence our economy will improve because now Spain drain us aproximate 16,000,milions each year,43 milions every day + 7 milions (per day )of interest of the 65.000 milions of our debt Spain after steal our wallet borrow us money with interest,this mean 50 milions per day..the GDP of Catalonia is aproximate 200,000 milions,similar to Greece or Portugal,our debt 65.000 milions represent aproximate the 30% of our GDP,a lot of countries would like to have our debt, Spain have the debt of100X100 of their GDP,remain in Spain is a suicide for us,they have dilapidate thousand of milions in stupid airports with no plains,hight velocity trains with no passengers,but they dont build very important structures for the economy like the mediterranean corridor,very important for the regions of Andalucia,Murcia,and Valencia,their stupidity is incredible,even they dont want connect the port of Barcelona to the lines of train,after they promise do it to the chinese company Hutchinson after they build one platform of 100 Ha. in the port of Barcelona, Spanish government have panic if Catalonia (and Valencia) grow.
Why we have to give bad treatment to the spaniards who are living in Catalonia,many of they are marrieds with catalan people they are part of us now as I told before we don't have nothing against the spaniards, even we make president de la Generalitat one andalucian!!!despite the spanish media and the intoxication services from Spain here no are problems between the spaniards and the catalan,may be only few of they who are against the independence will be a problem, but they have the option of return to Spain, the others we offer they the catalan nationality ...if they want, and they don't loose the spanish nationality (because as the spanish constitution say, nobody will loose the spanish nationality except the people who refuse it. (me... hehe.)
Pity my english is not enough good for explain a lot of things more.


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## alborino (Dec 13, 2014)

Mick no one can doubt your passion but when you talk about Spanish debt and Catalan debt you make it sound simple. However it isn't. Catalunya is an integral part of Spain and therefore the Spanish debt is in part Catalan debt. You can't simply default on it because in your opinion it was some other idiot that agreed it.

You also talk about what is bad about Spain but ignore Catalan corruption,

And you say


mickbcn said:


> but they have the option of return to Spain, the others we offer they the catalan nationality


That assumes a dictatorial stance. If an Andaluz family are living and working in Catalunya they have as much right to their bit of Catalunya as you do to yours, and as much right to their nationality as you. Just the same as a Catalan family living in Andalusia.

I know you want to make it sound simple but you are going to have to address the EU situation in a detailed coherent manner and not talk about Spanish debt although it has nothing to do with you. And another issue is how much debt are Catalan banks hiding? I believe it is substantial. If you can answer these issues I think you may have a good chance. But the rest of Spain will not give you an easy ride nor will the EU. They have too much to lose.

Sadly I'm Asturias/Madrid/Cadiz or would love to meet up in a bar and you could give me a better idea of the complex political make up that will likely exists after the elections. At least the nietos of fascists looked doomed to a bad result


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## mickbcn (Feb 4, 2013)

The debt is from the Reino de España,not Catalonia,if Spain block us to remain in Eu. then we dont pay their debt,very simply,however if Spain want negociate with us then we will asume our part of the debt,no problem.(if we are the 16% of the population of Spain then we pay the 16% of the spanish debt,(but we take too the 16% of the pictures of the Museo del Prado and 16% of the f16 and thanks of the army, hehe.since 1985 the drain of Catalonia for Spain has been 283.000 milions,the help of the European Union in the same time has been 100.000 milions, this mean that Catalonia have "paid" to Spain almost 3 times more than the help of the european union,(this information don't appear never in the spanish media, hehe.pitty than in the debates in spanish tv never appear catalan independentist,or if appear is a person with low level and one versus 5 unionist.
We know that will be not easy but now we are decided to jump and if we get the majority nobody will stop us,(well except if they decide send the army here.)despite their amenaces like we will be isolate out of the european union,poorest,or something stupid like with who will play the Barça,etc etc no problem even if we are out of the solar system ,of there are one rain of meteorites here, we prefer this than remain in Spain.
Of course if one andalucian family live and work here have the same rights than me I agree with you,but they must respect the democracy if we win and they must accept the will of the catalan like we have accepted (forced by the army) 300 years the spanish laws, but as I told you we don't have problems but the person of other regions of Spain who are living here, despite the spanish media intoxication.have you ever been here? you must come and see.


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## alborino (Dec 13, 2014)

Mick been to and done business in Barca many times. And remember happy times in Vic and up into the mountains with my parents. It is a great city and region 

But while even hundreds of thousands may wave flags in the streets there are far greater numbers just getting on with their lives. And they will all have rights to a say and by default most vote for no change as the unknown is a very scary place to go.

I'd recommend you read up on the Scottish referendum. I remember all the arguments you present being offered up to 6 months before. But they were all largely destroyed when the detailed reality of life was debated.

The truth is that the debts of Spain can be jointly and separately pursued by creditors. Imagine if Catalunya goes quickly followed by Pais Basque - and then Spain defaults. 

Not only are you going to have to satisfy yourself that that is a risk worth taking but you are also going to have to persuade the majority of people in Catalunya who simply want security for their families. And yes you can get these people to agree with you in the street or bars but history says words are cheap.

As I said I understand the frustrations and the thought of the promised land but please do not waste your opportunity by assuming this is straight-forward. It certainly isn't 

But good luck and please keep exporting the Cava


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## mickbcn (Feb 4, 2013)

Well, the next 27th September we will see who win,I will cross my fingers,but if not I am democrat I will wait for a better times but we don't stop with the wish of have a new country.
It seems that the scotish now not are very happy for their decission,I hope here will be different than in Scotland,because we dont have nothing to loose,is impossible to be in worst condition than now.
The production of cava las year was 240 milions of bottles aproximate, and I think that only 12 % was sell in Spain (without Catalonia.)thanks to the boycott of Spain the producers grown their exportations around the world,(sometimes the boycotts is good for estimulate the people).

Saludos!!


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## skip o (Aug 1, 2011)

The latest poll shows:
JS 35.8
C's 19.1
CSP 12.8
PSC 12.0
PPC 8.2
UDC 4.6
CUP 4.2

So if the results are like this, Mas and Junqueras would say that most voters did not vote for independence, correct? I am mostly trying to understand what the goals of this plebiscite are. I still don't know the differences between all the parties.

Details of the poll are here:
http://www.larazon.es/documents/10165/0/video_content_3416315_20150727023335.pdf


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## mickbcn (Feb 4, 2013)

If the sum of the pro- independence party wins , we won, JPS CDC,ERC,and CUP. la Razón ,el Mundo and el Pais,are the most anticatalan newspapers in Spain,take care with their information.


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## mickbcn (Feb 4, 2013)




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