# Bangkok's Simmering demonstations..will it be safe ?



## karinasf

One other thing i would like to ask...the red shirt demonstrations in Bangkok are still going on and DH and i are getting a bit worried that it might drag on...we leave for Bangkok the first week of may.

Is there anyone currently living in Bangkok that can respond to this ? I have been following up the news on Al Jazeera and it seems that the demonstrations have effectivley forced all or most of the big shopping centers to close...and that almost all the Hotels are empty...would this be due to the normal low season for travellers to Bangkok or could this be due to the demonstrations ?

Anyone shed some light i would greatly appreciate it.

Cheers
Karina..
PS if the hotels are infact "almost all empty" would the hotels be willing to reduce there rates because of it ? We were thinking of staying at a decent hotel but now are thinking we may upgrade if the hotels are willing to discount there standard prices.


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## KhwaamLap

OK, the media has dramatised this quite a bit. I'm not aware of there being any empty hotels due to the Red Shirts pe say, other than from people watching international news programs and cancelling holidays. The Red Shirts are not, as has been misreported by some, targeting tourists, quite the contrary, they are targeting the authorities here. 

Songkran begins on Tuesday, so this is not the low season, but the start of the summer high season. 

Thai economics are somewhat confusing. The usual case is that if there are fewer guests the price goes UP to cover the costs (as well as services being cut - earlier kitchen closure, later breakfasts, less maids, pool closed etc). Therefore, I wouldn't expect to catch a bargain.


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## Guest

Throughout this sorry saga, that has dragged on for years now, at no point have tourists been targeted. At the height of the yellow shirt demonstrations a couple of years back the foreign media would have had us believe that there was significant risk for tourists, but for those of us on the streets, this was obviously untrue. Unless you walked through the middle of the yellow shirts wearing an _"I love Thaksin"_, T-shirt, of course...

The same applies today. Of course things can change, but the gatherings are in small, restricted areas, and have been largely peaceful so far, with the exception of the confrontation at a TV transmission station. I'm in France at the moment, but I wouldn't hesitate for one second to get on that plane tomorrow.


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## blue eyes

My neice did work in the Shangri-la Bangkok.Her and around another 100 people were let go because of the red shirts.She was told that if and when the red shirts go away and when the tourists come back we will begin to rehire.She has come back to the family home because she was told the same thing at all hotels and tour operaters that she has tried to get a job with.I would say that is a good indication that the hotels are fairly empty.Would you not also?Oh she has an AA and the TOT certification.


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## gino

*The situation seems to be heating up*

According to an article on CNN.com today, fifteen people were killed, including a news cameraman for Thomson Reuters. 

15 killed in Bangkok protests - CNN.com


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## KhwaamLap

*Latests from the papers...*

News report



> *Tourists shaken as bloodshed erupts in Bangkok*
> 
> by Rachel O'Brien
> 
> BANGKOK (AFP) -- "People started running and screaming. We were being shot at," says 19-year-old Briton Sarah Colvin, one of the many foreign tourists caught up in the political violence sweeping Bangkok.
> 
> "It shook us up a lot. We needed valium to sleep," she says, surveying the aftermath of Saturday's bloody battles just by Khaosan Road, Bangkok's iconic backpacker strip. "A lot of people we've spoken to are getting out of here."
> 
> Clashes between anti-government "Red Shirts" and security forces, which left 20 people dead and over 800 injured in the Thai capital, have delivered another severe blow to the country's vital tourism industry.
> 
> "I won't be coming back to Bangkok. Maybe the islands, but not Bangkok. I'm going to leave tonight. Yesterday was really scary," said Flavia Kupka, 32, a waitress from New Zealand on her first visit to the "Land of Smiles".
> 
> The Southeast Asian nation has been beset by repeated demonstrations by rival red- and yellow-clad protest groups, hitting an economy that sank into recession last year for the first time since 2000 amid a severe global economic crisis.
> 
> One of the most economically damaging protests in late 2008 saw the pro-establishment Yellow Shirts blockade Bangkok's two airports for nine days, stranding hordes of angry travellers.
> 
> But Saturday's violence, which followed almost a month of rallies by the Reds, was the country's worst for 18 years and shook visitors as it spread into normally tourist-friendly Khaosan Road.
> 
> "There were bullets coming all over us. Bombs as well, petrol bombs within about 10 feet of us," said factory worker Tony Doohan from Ireland, standing by debris and pools of blood covered with Thai flags and red roses.
> 
> "I saw Red Shirts with a gun they must have stolen off the cops. They all had sticks and were throwing glass bottles... anything they could find really," the 25-year-old said. "It's a bad time to be here."
> 
> Retail and tourism sectors have taken a battering by the Reds' weeks of protests -- especially since they took over Bangkok's main commercial hub on April 3, disrupting traffic and causing major shopping centres to close.
> 
> The Thai Retailers Association said Thursday -- a day after a state of emergency was declared -- that the protesters' occupation of that district had caused more than one billion baht (about 31 million dollars) in losses.
> 
> Further west at the Dang Derm Hotel on Khaosan Road, receptionist Jaringa Jaiya said Sunday that fearful guests had begun checking out after the violence intensified.
> 
> "Sure it will be bad for business. I think visitors will be shocked that this happened in Thailand. People want to get out of Bangkok," she said.
> 
> April is the month of Songkran, a water festival for the Thai new year, and usually attracts thousands of tourists. Bookings were already down this year, and now the celebrations are reported to have been cancelled in Khaosan.
> 
> Hong Kong was one of the countries to step up warnings over the city late Saturday, raising its travel alert for Bangkok to the highest level of "black" meaning that travellers' safety would be under "severe threat".
> 
> But not all visitors were deterred from a return trip to the kingdom, famous for its paradise beaches, fiery cuisine and glittering temples.
> 
> "We were told they didn't want to hurt tourists because they live off tourism. It was scary but it wouldn't put us off coming again," said Danish backpacker Charlotte Stage, 19.
> 
> "Both the Reds and the army were really nice to us," added French tourist Eva Minassian. "They were actually protecting us -- both sides -- so I don't think we're very much in danger".
> 
> 
> -- (c)Copyright AFP 2010-04-11
> Published with written approval from AFP.


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## KhwaamLap

Looks like its all taken a turn for the worse - now we know why Thaksin has missed 5 daily phone ins - plausible deniability! Is it going to be another 1992????


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## Guest

i suppose it was bound to be worse that the yellow-shirts airport and parliament occupations. As 'elitist' supporters, implicitly backed by the army top brass, business community, and other privileged elements of Thai society, the 'Yellows' were instrumental in bringing down a government that had the backing of the poor north and north-east, and the elite were hardly complaining. Few injuries over that period.

Now of course the boot is on the other foot - and the army is using it. About the only thing holding them back is the terrible reputation violent suppression of demos does to Thailand and the tourist industry, plus the fact that the army is full of conscripts from the red-shirt areas who basically would be shooting at the equivalent of mum and dad.

Hard to tell where this is all going to go. Will the Thai preference for compromise win out in the end?


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## KhwaamLap

Compromise does seem to be in the offing - the Reds keep to their demands which will not be met by the government.

Doing a bit of further reading, it seems though the military/police do have live rounds, they are at present not being used, but water canon, rubber bullets and tear gas are. The Red however have been using (captured?) guns, Molotovs, firework bombs, grenades spears (made from sharpened bamboo) and the like.

At some point the military.police are going to snap and then there will be much more red on the street of Bangkok I fear!


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## Guest

KhwaamLap said:


> Compromise does seem to be in the offing - the Reds keep to their demands which will not be met by the government.
> 
> Doing a bit of further reading, it seems though the military/police do have live rounds, they are at present not being used, but water canon, rubber bullets and tear gas are. The Red however have been using (captured?) guns, Molotovs, firework bombs, grenades spears (made from sharpened bamboo) and the like.
> 
> At some point the military.police are going to snap and then there will be much more red on the street of Bangkok I fear!


But there are reports in today's international press, including eye witness accounts by tourists, suggesting that the army is using live rounds. One Brit described watching a guy on top of a lorry, just waving a red flag, taking a bullet to the chest.

Plus there have been what, 4 army deaths and 16 red-shirts? That seems to suggest that the bullets are flying considerably more in the direction of the demonstrators. So far, at any rate.


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## KhwaamLap

I think if the army was opening up then there would be considerably more than 16 dead. A lot of reports about people being shot - like that dumb foreigner who told the army guys to F off and was shot twice in the chest. He went to hospital. All the news said was he was shot twice in the chest. If he was shot with live bullets in the chest, then it would be very unlikely that he would survive it - much more likely to be rubber bullets. Rubber bullets can, and have, killed (in Northern Ireland for example), they break ribs, crack skulls and blind too. 

I would suggest that any military unit anywhere in the world is given the ability to return live fire if fired upon - police and army in Thailand are armed in their daily life. All police sre still carrying their service pistols. That is different from an order allowing the use of live ammo on the streets.

Many of the reports of gun sightings on the streets seems to be the Reds carrying them.


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## Guest

Has the occupation of government buildings in Chiang Mai ended? The red shirts took over a couple of places after the army shut down their TV station.

(Again, that shows the difference between the government approach to yellow- and red-shirts. When the yellow antics were in full flow, ASTV and NBT, ASTV in particular, were free to broadcast non-stop bias throughout, without the slightest hint of intervention from the authorities despite it being blatant propaganda)...


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## KhwaamLap

Last I heard the UDD TV channel was back off-line after the Reds vacated following a deal. Hard to say who broke the deal, but with 3,500 extra troops moving in, the government have secured it. My guess is they will now remove some vital components to stop broadcasting should the Reds move back in again.

I'm not sure if the yellow taking of the airport and the "allowance" of the sympathetic companies to continue was by design or incompetence. One must also remember Thaksin at that point had just sole Shin Corp abroad, so may have had his hands tied from playing with satellite TV channels by contractual agreement (just ba thought there-?).


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## Guest

A couple of uncut videos from the same 'amateur' blogger with no axe to grind, showing how quickly a peaceful situation can transform into utter chaos and confusion. Taken in succession Saturday evening April 10th, the night the estimated 20 people died and 800 or so were injured...


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## KhwaamLap

Lots of shell casings being carried around and a few live bullets. Reds say the were picked up and one even shows a spent bullet that he claimed hit his golf club *though it looked a large callibre round to me, I would have thought it would have cut his club in two and dragged shrapnel with it as it tore through his leg, rather than just dropping to the floor. I'm always a bit dubious about such claims especially after last year's fest of lies that turned out to be all myth and no substance. It really sounded like firecrackers at first - I wonder if both sides were actually tricked by fireworks into thinking the were being fired upon. 

With so many people blatantly carrying around Molotov cocktails, and throwing chairs and spears, its surprising some soldier didn't let rip. As the guy in the clips said several times, if they were firing into the crowd, then there would be many dead. 

I was hoping the clips might show army firing, so we could see if they were armed, arm-banded like last year, or firing up.

I fear things are going to escalate as casualties anger both sides and there will be some serious blood letting in the next day or so.


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## Guest

It's an almighty mess at the moment. There's an interesting analysis of the narrowing options for the authorities in this BBC piece...

One point about rubber bullets. I well remember their use during the 'Troubles', but don't recall anything like the number of deaths over a lengthy period of time, set against 17 civilians in a single night's violence in Bangkok. Plus hospital sources speak of 800 injured to the point of needing treatment.

Hopefully some facts as to the nature of the injuries, and the causes of death, will emerge soon.


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## KhwaamLap

I believe there were more than one type used in NI. One type was like a bean bag, that knocked you over and/or winded you. Another fired rubber balls that could do some damage. The former were used in crowd control mostly (alongside water cannon etc) - the latter were used more a s a second to last resort. Here they only use the rubber ball kind I hear. Thus more likely injury or even death coming about. There is also a lot of throwing objects like bottles, rocks, furniture and spears, and also beatings with sticks/clubs this will likely kill many more people than rubber bullets will.


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## KhwaamLap

Just read FB's BBC link. Not sure I agree with some of the thinking there - especially from professors in the USA whom only have divergent news and rhetoric to go on. I find it hard to conceive what Abhisit could have done better. He was always going to be caught between the devil and the deep blue (red?) sea. If he comes out aggressive, he would be slaughtered on the world stage and may trigger terrorist type attacks (well more of and more serious) and even civil war. If he sits back and lets it continue he will be slaughtered for allowing lawlessness, ignoring civil unrest and indecisiveness - it would also be watching the slow death of the economy. So, he does all he can - he reigns in the military. Keeps as best a lid on the boiling pot as he can. Lets the reds blow off steam - including allowing the [email protected] with the blood. Allows Red TV to keep broadcasting and tries to accommodate red leaders with talks. 

Lets face it, in most of our own countries, such civil lawlessness (bombings, beatings, violence, vandalism, armed and weaponised individuals on the streets, Molotov cocktails and so on) would be hit head on with specialist armed police or even military response. Not just guarding and protecting government buildings, but armed assault. Yet, we are appauled to hear that a dozen (out of hundred's of thousands we are lead to believe) of these armed people have lost their lives.

We have a former long term PM who knows where and how to hurt the government, several ex high ranking military men - senior generals - who know the military tactics and how far you have to push to get a response. Nothing that is happening here is unplanned. If there is further bloodshed it is not hard to workout who's hands will be the bloodiest - even from thousands of miles away.


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## Guest

After all the political shenanigans, Abhisit virtually taking over by default, it's hardly surprising that a large chunk of the population - who won a majority the last time there was a national vote - should be suspicious and angry with the current status quo. 

If there were to be an election, then that would or should go a long way to meeting the demands of the red-shirts, but more importantly, settle the issue of where the popular momentum lies. Isn't that what democracy is supposed to be about?

Trouble is the situation hasn't changed much in Thailand after decades of elitist control - and right now they aren't about to let power slip through their fingers again. And the often expressed views of the yellow-shirts are the unspoken views of many of the power-brokers behind the scenes. That the rural poor, numerous as they are, are just a bunch of uneducated idiots who shouldn't be allowed anywhere near a ballot box. That elected representatives should only have a minority role in government, with appointees holding 70% of decision-making powers.

None of this is surprising - the more the workers lack education and the means to improve their lot, the easier it is for the powerful to enrich themselves.


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## KhwaamLap

True, but every political party that ever there was in Thailand is brimming over with Thai (Sino-Thai) elite. That includes the UDD. Thaksin himself for starters; and just about all the leaders thereof. Thaksin was not the PM when he was ousted. He did not win the last election he stood in - as the election was constitutionally voided. He was caretaker PM. He tried to call illegal snap elections, which fell foul on the constitution and was voided. His Government at that time was unelected. It was also not TRT majority, it was a coalition government. 

There is in actual fact very little difference between the current Gov and the last two - the pro Thaksin that was dissolved in 2008 and Thaksin's caretakership. It is the typical misinformation and slight of hand that has put Thailand in this position. Propaganda from certain disaffected ex-politicos. The anger from educated Thais is understandable when they know that most of the electorate vote how the village leader tells them, and the village leader is bought by whichever political party has the most money - this is not current news, it a staple here in banana republic Thailand. 

Its all a vicious circle. How to stop mass vote buying? Education and wealth. Fine words, but impossible as that would involve the elite to risk their position, power and money - especially in forthcoming generations. And so it goes around. 

Dr Thaksin was very clever in that he used his control of the media to continually put out propaganda sound bites about how the country was going to be a first world country by so and so, the hub of this that and the other - he made the Thais feel proud - at the same time he promised real investment in the poor. However, he actually delivered very little of real lasting worth. Loans that put farmers in debt. Farms and land lost for a new mobile or a new Honda Wave. 30 Baht medical which practically bankrupted clinics across the country, and lead to inferior health care (as the clinic could not cover these costs and the Government were not forthcoming in paying for it). And so on. He was, and is, a very clever man - his megalomania should not cloud are appreciation of his cunning - the poor now truly believe they are fighting for the sole person who tried to make their lives better. When all that got better was his bank balance.

Pre Thaksin was little better of course, corruption also rife. It will continue until someone stands up and can make a difference. With the military so large, powerful and self controlling, it is unlikely. It requires a chess player, a tactician, who can move change slowly and decisively with an agenda for the people rather than his pockets. Abhisit could have been that man, and the likes of Thaksin and the old guard knew it. Limited already by a coalition government and faux love for an ousted PM, it was always going to be a Sisyphus challenge, but it has been made impossible because Thaksin and his cronies would not him or the government have a chance to make any changes. 

Thailand will be worse for it; it may never recover from this sort sighted stupidity. Neighbours bite at her heels. Foreign investments will start to wain and tourism will shy away to safer, more hospitable lands. Thaksins greed and megalomania and the blind fools taking up arms may well seal the coffin at the worst possible point in modern history when friends with money are few and competitors are plenty.


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## blue eyes

Something that I find interesting is that the media and the redshirt media is always saying about how it is the poor issan and poor northern people that are supporting them,to-wit the red shirts.I have not meet one person from those locations that in private will say that they support what the redshirts are doing,What they will say is that THIS NOT GOOD FOR THAILAND!!!!Go to just about any moo ban in Issan and talk to someone alone and they will tell you that they will NEVER support the redshirts or [deleted] ever again.The ones that do, only do until the money is not getting paid to them to support anymore.They will also tell you that [deleted] said that if he can not have Thailand then he will do what ever he can to make sure that no one will have Thailand.Out side of the media and in the real world of Thailand most Thais do not approve of the redshirt crap!!!


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## KhwaamLap

blue eyes said:


> Something that I find interesting is that the media and the redshirt media is always saying about how it is the poor issan and poor northern people that are supporting them,to-wit the red shirts.I have not meet one person from those locations that in private will say that they support what the redshirts are doing,What they will say is that THIS NOT GOOD FOR THAILAND!!!!Go to just about any moo ban in Issan and talk to someone alone and they will tell you that they will NEVER support the redshirts or [deleted] ever again.The ones that do, only do until the money is not getting paid to them to support anymore.They will also tell you that [deleted] said that if he can not have Thailand then he will do what ever he can to make sure that no one will have Thailand.Out side of the media and in the real world of Thailand most Thais do not approve of the redshirt crap!!!


Yes I believe this is true also. In fact most of the red shirts I see are working class city folk - tuktuk drivers, bus drivers, songtaew drivers, petrol/gas station attendants, etc. I have yet to see any farmers or beggars taking up the "struggle". The danger is, of course, that the government does collapse or surrender to silly demands on this basis - with a small minority dictating to the majority that just want to get on with their lives and don't give a [email protected] who runs the government as long as rice prices stay good.


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## Guest

I went on quite a few of the rallies in the north, taking photos, using a university student to act as interpreter. The demonstrators were from a wide variety of backgrounds. Other than the basic 'working class', I met guest house owners, shopkeepers, students, you name it. Most were keen to point out that Thaksin wasn't the main reason for their presence - far from it. A fair proportion were perfectly aware of his shortcomings - but felt that true democracy was the only way to achieve genuine change, and those in power wish to prevent progress of any sort in this respect. They're not as naive or stupid as their opponents would like to have us believe. On the contrary, I was surprised by their articulate explanations of Thai politics and the future they hoped to see for their country.

I'm not sure what the point is in polling moo ban residents for their opinions, to be frank. 

The major part of my wife's extensive family lives in the Yasothon region of Isaan. They are not badly off at all for the most part, owning their own homes, some with small businesses, some farmers. All without exception will readily confirm in private, if not in public, that they are pro-UDD. My wife's sister and aunt in Bangkok on the other hand favour the current administration. All will tell you how sad they are about events in Thailand, but that does not mean they do not have political leanings, or that they are not prepared to confirm them to those that they trust.

On this forum we have rules about respect for others, and that includes non-members. To the best of my knowledge there is no such individual as named in blue eyes' post, therefore the nickname in question has been deleted.


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## KhwaamLap

> On this forum we have rules about respect for others, and that includes non-members. To the best of my knowledge there is no such individual as named in blue eyes' post, therefore the nickname in question has been deleted.


FB, if there is no such person, then how can they be disrespected ? Just kidding. Can we just correct the spelling instead, it would then make more sense


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## Guest

KhwaamLap said:


> Yes I believe this is true also. In fact most of the red shirts I see are working class city folk - tuktuk drivers, bus drivers, songtaew drivers, petrol/gas station attendants, etc. I have yet to see any farmers or beggars taking up the "struggle". The danger is, of course, that the government does collapse or surrender to silly demands on this basis - with a small minority dictating to the majority that just want to get on with their lives and don't give a [email protected] who runs the government as long as rice prices stay good.


There is a perfectly obvious reason why many farmers don't attend the rallies. We're not talking about landed gentry European-style farmers here. Some of these are virtually subsistence farmers, who simply can't afford to swan off to Bangkok for days or weeks on end, not if they want to have crops to attend to and a working farm on their return. That's how my father-in-law explained it to me, anyway.

The demand is for early elections. I see nothing silly in that - indeed, the government is already talking about the possibility of bringing elections forward to October. The country is split. Conjecture about whether those in Isaan are in favour of UDD demands, suggestions that they don't care either way, make little sense when you look at the strong backing the areas in question gave to popular political movements in the past after military control was relinquished. This of course took those in power by surprise, hence the thinly disguised reluctance to go to the people again today.

Who knows which way it will go when the elections take place, but there is a clear split, and no amount of talk from farangs about whether the Isaan region is or is not pro-UDD is going to change the reality of the north-south, poor-elite divisions that are emerging. This is just par for the course in a country whose people are just discovering political awareness, typical birthing pains before a new status quo develops. It may take some time though, depending on the strength of will of those in power.


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## KhwaamLap

There are more demands than just early elections. However, even that demand has been made impossible by demanding immediate dissolution and elections in very short order. Reasonable demands would be elections in 9 months. It takes time to organise campaigns, and there is just too much cleaning up and sorting out that the government needs to do in the meantime. The economy for starters, and of course now international reputation is at an all time low, so tourism, foreign investment and exports have been damaged.

The call for Abhisit to step down "because he is unelected" (like Thaksin was at the time of the coup) makes no sense as the only thing that can happen is that another un-elected person fills the gap until the elections. So, where is the gain - other than the possibility of manipulating who that person is.

Do you really believe Thaksin and his old guard would be investing so much time and money just to see a new round of fair elections? He wants "his" money back and they all want power back. Does anyone really believe that things will get better for the man-in-the-paddy if this does happen?

Abhisit should declare that the 46Billkuion confiscated from Thaksin will be used for projects to improve the lot of country folk - improving schools, care and subsidies. Then the worm may turn.


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## Guest

KhwaamLap said:


> There are more demands than just early elections. However, even that demand has been made impossible by demanding immediate dissolution and elections in very short order. Reasonable demands would be elections in 9 months. It takes time to organise campaigns, and there is just too much cleaning up and sorting out that the government needs to do in the meantime. The economy for starters, and of course now international reputation is at an all time low, so tourism, foreign investment and exports have been damaged.
> 
> The call for Abhisit to step down "because he is unelected" (like Thaksin was at the time of the coup) makes no sense as the only thing that can happen is that another un-elected person fills the gap until the elections. So, where is the gain - other than the possibility of manipulating who that person is.
> 
> Do you really believe Thaksin and his old guard would be investing so much time and money just to see a new round of fair elections? He wants "his" money back and they all want power back. Does anyone really believe that things will get better for the man-in-the-paddy if this does happen?
> 
> Abhisit should declare that the 46Billkuion confiscated from Thaksin will be used for projects to improve the lot of country folk - improving schools, care and subsidies. Then the worm may turn.


Thaksin is a red herring in this whole business. The government camp brandishes his name about deliberately, as if he is the sole reason the UDD is on the streets. Obviously there is political capital to be made from associating a discredited politician with the demonstrators. But talk to them yourself - they are angry at this manipulation of their position, and many try to distance themselves from someone who cannot return to power in Thailand, as they are well aware.

Thaksin may have a number of objectives. Not least to clear his name, to have the right to return to his country without being made an example of while countless others get away with equal sins, revenge on those who sidelined him. Returning to political office? Highly unlikely. 

Some still hold Thaksin in affection, rightly or wrongly - he was the first to see the untapped power in the rural regions, and played to that gallery. Many benefited - the police and army too got substantial raises. But give the demonstrators some credit! They don't see Thaksin as unblemished, far from it. They're also not so stupid as not to realise that most of the upper echelons of Thai society are tarnished, corruption and cronyism are rampant. Thaksin was singled out because powerful as he was, he upset too many of the wrong equally powerful people. So the whole 'corruption' picture painted of Thaksin, as if he alone is the demon to be made an example of, is a joke - and they know it.

The 'step down now' demand is a negotiation ploy of course. It will be defused, assuming the government go down the conciliation path, by earlier elections, possibly in October. That way neither side loses face. The other demands are just posturing in the heat of the moment. PAD gave them some good lessons in that respect a couple of years ago.

Frankly I don't see what the problem is. There are those that want to hang on to power in what is, in some respects, still almost a feudal system. There are those who want a larger share of the cake. Somewhere inbetween all the corruption and cronyism that directly stems from a society where too much power is in the hands of an elite will have to be sorted out. So either more steps are taken towards a viable form of social democracy (Americans in particular please take note - social democracy does not equate to communism), or Thai society continues to head for disaster and more violent confrontations.

As a farang I would benefit from the status quo being maintained. Low wages, a powerless working class, both would be good for my wallet. But I'm not inclined to sit within the walls of a moo ban and pretend that the problems don't exist, so I have some sympathy for the UDD objectives. Democracy isn't perfect, but it's the best we've got.


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## KhwaamLap

mmm we may have to agree to disagree on some points here Pete. My MIL and just about every other red that I meet - and as my MIL runs my cafe, and the red Shirt TV is on all day, I meet a lot - all seem to herald the former PM as some kind of hero or martyr. EVery Thai politician seems to be somewhat corrupt, its probably the only way of reaching such a position, and every leader as far back as I can work out was corrupt and employed crony-ism - there is a Thai saying "gin meung" that elates to politicians - it simply means that they eat from the country. They are expected to be corrupt to some degree, but are also expected to put back. Thaksin was so much more blatant than any other PM, and he would not let go of power - he stayed on after promising to step down several times. He continued to play the system so he could continue to be caretaker PM. The fear was that he would end up with so much amassed power, through propoganda, vote buying and key appointments that he would become a dictator. He was really a victim of his unprecedented success.

The country could well do a lot to makesociety fairer and more democratic, I just don't think there is a political party - reds included - that have a non-elite leadership that would not keep the status quo in real terms regardless of their promises. Sure, many reds have been sold the ideology, but that doesn't mean that it is the real policy of the party.

And for certain, violence, intimidation, kidnap (like the CEO of CAT who was just kidnapped), bombings and the like sre not the best means either. If they really do have the support they claim country wide, then mass strikes would shut the country down and hurt both the government and the elite - yet that was not even attempted - I wonder why.


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## Guest

The Thais are their own worst enemies in one sense. They have a disproportionate respect for those in power, vaguely stemming from a mix of cultural and religious beliefs and habits that assume today's influential and rich people must have done much good in past lives to store up merit for the future. Drive poorly and selfishly down a street in Chiang Mai in a massive flashy 4x4, and watch 'smaller' people - even if they have right of way - fall over themselves to get out of your path, and with a big subservient smile on their faces too.

But times are changing. On the aforementioned rallies, I was amazed by the demonstrators' readiness to discuss - with a complete stranger - a certain 'unmentionable' topic, and with such venom!

Even if you are correct with respect to elitist manipulation of the UDD, such leaders would be playing a dangerous game. The disaffected are getting a taste for politics that they never had before, along with an increasing degree of understanding of the issues. Those attempting to use their supporters to support selfish ends may well find they have an angry snake by the tail. 

Why don't people go on mass strikes? Because there isn't the unionisation, because they can and would be sacked on the spot, because they have learned not only respect but also a degree of fear of those in power, because they don't have bank accounts that they can draw on to see them through tough times, because they're working to supply the next meal or go hungry, because the habits of generations and a culture that values subservience have ill-prepared them for mass resistance, because they've become so accustomed to manipulation and exploitation that few really believe it will ever change... yet.

It's different for their opponents. Their partisans implicitly accept the status quo, and that the benefits of an elitist system filter down to the middle classes, so long as a certain sector of society remains poor, uneducated, and without influence. They don't particularly care who skims off the top, so long as they're alright, Jack. 

To give a concrete example, I've watched the system in action. The well-off middle-class family building a small condo building next to my place in Chiang Mai, peremptorily sacked a Surin family on the spot for no other reason than another bunch of workers having turned up offering to work cheaper. The Surin family submissively accepted their fate, and off they walked, baby under their arm. No middle-class person is going to vote for an end to a system that allows this sort of thing to happen. And so far the subjugated just take it on the chin and wander off to find their next meal.

Sure the current opposition isn't a viable alternative - there's just too much anger. But they'll eventually give way to others with less personal involvement in the current mess. The challenge is to change people's attitudes towards authority, otherwise the exploitation and corruption will just go on, under a new guise.


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## KhwaamLap

Just two things really. As to mass strikes - if the reds can organise hundreds of thousands of people to load up in trucks and head to the capital for weeks, and even maintain a rotation as people go home, then it would have been no harder to organise local peaceful rallies where people stayed off work and joined a picket line instead. Just as much chance of being fired if you are in BKK for 4 weeks than if you are at a local rally. Enough people do it and the companies can't fire people. No company ever wanted unions, people made them by clubbing to together in the first place.

Second point: Your last paragraph is what I was taking about. There will be no change. Indeed, it is very unlikely the reds will will a true majority anyway, so another hung parliament - another coalition. The same noses at the same troughs. It will just go on, because as people go, they are replaced by members of the same families, the same elites. The only way to truly change things would be to ban every current party and politician and and start over - maybe under a provisional military government while new parties form. Maybe a large committee made up from civil servants, lawyers and random people from the public. Whatever, but just continual juxtapositioning of the same elite families (or new wealthy people like both Abhisit and Thaksin when they entered politics) - just changes nada.


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## Guest

Persuading people that they aren't going to lose their jobs for good if they officially go on strike - more easily said than done. It takes a great deal more than the few tens of thousands, peaking at 150 thousand or so, to have any effect across a nation of 62 million. The tactics used by a determined minority are more likely to work. 'Enough people' won't go on strike - TIT. The workers are still excessively respectful of their 'betters' 

No change? Maybe. But that's hardly a reason for the disaffected to stop trying, is it? As for an appointed committee, that's exactly what PAD wanted. The question is who appoints the appointees... and we know who that would be.

Interesting discussion, by the way.


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## pinoy_expat

Generally speaking, indeed, it is safe in Thailand. Just stay away from where the red shirts are doing their demonstration.


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