# Bottom of the Market



## maxd (Mar 22, 2009)

So when is the bottom coming in the housing market?

Opinions please. I think this year will accelerate and bottom out 14/15.


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## gus-lopez (Jan 4, 2010)

I'd like to think so but looking around who is going to buy them? What with, as unless you are buying a repo off the bank they won't even consider offering a mortgage , so that only leaves cash. There's at least a million new & unsold. If they managed to sell all of them that only leaves the million in various statges of cionstruction ! Then we haven't taken into account all those who would actually like to sell but can't/won't/ because they can see that it isn't even worth the effort. 
No I think the first thing that has got to happen as Acuña pointed out is demolition of the hundreds of thousands of skeletons/half-built, fully-built & of a no standard whatsoever; in areas where no one is evergoing to buy them. They'll have to follow Ireland & get the bulldozers in! 

Been Off-topic slightly but as much as I'd like to see a miraculous upturn , & that's what it would be, I can't even see it for 5 years time !!


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## jojo (Sep 20, 2007)

It seems to me that the Chinese and Russians are making their mark in Spain, its possible that if enough come over and buy, then it may kick start something, but not for several years I wouldnt think. Sadly as gus says, there is a huge problem now with half built, sub standard shells littering the countryside - will they bother to bulldoze them??? They already have plenty of old run down buildings around?!

Jo xxx


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## 90199 (Mar 21, 2010)

I think it will depend on the area. There are places in the Canaries that are giving a very positive sign of a significant upturn in the local economy. This in turn will eventually filter out to the housing market. 

Mind you compared with northern Spain, properties here are substantially more expensive, and prices remain static, sale or no sale.


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## Sirtravelot (Jul 20, 2011)

I read somewhere that it may take 10-15 years according to some professionals.


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## jimenato (Nov 21, 2009)

10s of thousands of unsellable shells. It ain't going to happen any time soon...


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## mrypg9 (Apr 26, 2008)

The minute we arrived in Prague with what by Czech standards was an enormous amount of money we were bombarded with 'Why rent? You are wasting your money! You could buy a lovely villa in Dejvice -what passes for a 'posh' part of Prague' - and so on.
We didn't buy, we rented a large house with inground heated pool, large gardens etc.
It didn't take us long to learn that, long term, Prague was not for us. So we simply didn't renew our rental contract and phoned Pickfords etc.
Had we heeded this advice, we would in all likelihood still be stuck there.
The same when we arrived in Spain....'Why rent? You can afford to buy a lovely house'..and so on yet again. Tbh I wasn't sure whether I was in it for the long-term so that was one major consideration. Our plan at that time was to move on after a few years, to France most likely.
True, we have since we left the UK spent on rent enough to have bought a substantial property. But as we were unsure of our intentions we considered the best course was to rent.
This obsession with property value -and for some people it is an obsession.....there was a time when you couldn't attend a middle-class dinner party in the UK without a discussion of property values - is like any obsession with material things. I often wonder if property ownership is for some people like a comfort blanket. Of couse in the UK owning your house has in the past been a source of saving as well as security for many people...'safe as houses', as the saying goes. Or used to go. The fluctuations in house prices over the past three decades have shown how hollow that adage has become.
Not all countries share in this view of the importance of home ownership. In Canada, to name one country I know of and have owned property in, renting is an option as valid as ownership. And after all, as most people buy via mortgages, what is that but a kind of 'rent-to-buy scheme?
After decades of owning properties some of which I rented out to tenants I can only say that the freedom I now experience is very refreshing. No worries about repairs, if our neighbours were unpleasant I can up sticks and off, if I'm bored with my environment it's easy to change it..
True, our invested money from selling all the bricks and mortar we owned in the UK and elsewhere isn't giving us the yield we'd hoped. But compared to the drop in property prices, it's insignificant and in any case hasn't affected how we live. True again that I have no plans to leave an inheritance. My son and family don't need it. They own a home in Spain which is at our disposal should we need it. But that doesn't alter my view.
Anyone thinking of moving to Spain from the UK would, imo, do well to carefully consider before selling any property they may have there. Currently it's a renters' market here...we have negotiated our rent down by 1000 euros a month from the asking price when we first viewed the property over four years ago. Another important factor is that you just don't know how you will find life in a new country. I honestly thought we would spend years, perhaps the rest of our lives, in Prague, but I soon discovered that decades of regular visiting had in no way prepared me for daily life in what in many respects is still a developing country.
If we had stayed in the piso we moved into when we first arrived here, green as grass, I would have never settled and we would have moved perhaps to France, perhaps to Berlin...
So for any prospective immigrant my advice woud be watch and wait before you buy and above all rent for at least a couple of years. You can't judge by your first year whether you will be in it for the long term. Our first year in Prague was magical...but I now think that had more to do with moving away from a stressful business and social environment than our 'new' life in a different country.
Another factor for younger people is of course the availability of work. Renting gives you so much more mobility and options.
If I were starting out again and didn't have cash to buy I really think I would choose to rent and invest what money I had in other ways than tieing myself to a mortgage.
But that's just how I see it..


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## baldilocks (Mar 7, 2010)

It's all a case of "horses for courses". We had and have no intention of moving on or back or sideways - we came, we saw, we bought because this house answered all our needs - location, village, nice people, accommodation (or with very little alteration), etc. We could have waited and bought something else, possibly cheaper (possibly not) but would it have ticked all the other boxes? We were committed to our move, we knew what we wanted because we had done all the research. It was then all down to selling our flat in UK, packing and moving.


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## neilmac (Sep 10, 2008)

Saw an article in which someone only this week said it has bottomed out. Not sure if they had their own agenda think it was an real estate manager!


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## ninjabinger (Dec 13, 2012)

Excellent post mrypg, especially for people like myself who are not in Spain but thinking about a move there! I guess we shouldn't underestimate the scale of the bubble.

I was also thinking, if the typical fees alone for buying a very average house or apartment (maybe for 200k) are 10-12% (is this correct?), then that would work out 20k+ euro. Ignoring the vicissitudes of the housing market, you will thus definitely be 20k down to start with, money for which you could rent for 500 euro apartment for 4 years, or some kind of villa for 1000 euro for two years.


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## Lolito (Aug 25, 2012)

I do remember very well when people could buy houses with no problems, it has always been reasonable cheap to buy a property in Spain, not sure which year it all started to change but I think it was around 2005 or 2006, they went up far too much, I am sure 100% they will go down to the levels they should actually be. 

I still think, no matter what, you should never pay more than 200,000 for a house with gardens, anything over that, it is just no worth it.

Most of my family, we are all Spanish, bought villas with pools and gardens between 2000 and 2005 and no-one paid more than 150,000 for it. Eight years later these were selling for 350,000 minimum, which is pretty ridiculous. 

They will go down and down and down, the good thing is that it will never go up to the same prices they were 1, 2, 3 or 4 years ago. Never. 

My next door neighbor bought his house 4 years ago for 280,000 and the value today is 160,000 (I still think it is too expensive) and he thinks maybe they will go up again and make a profit, I don't see his house being worth over 270,000 ever again. Sad but true.


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## jp1 (Jun 11, 2011)

Bottoming out and recovery are very too different things.

IMO I think we are close to the bottom, I will clarify this statement to mean that there are a lot of privately marketed properties that I think will turn out to be the bottom or very close to the bottom when all the dust settles. Of course there are huge number of properties, mainly bank and mortgaged properties that don't reflect reality, in fact the majority of properties on the market. These will of course fall to meet the others that have seen the light earlier.

The crash is no different to the boom, when booming people think it will never stop, when crashing the same is true. Spanish property will not fall to worthless values, as a lot of people seem to think.

Recovery, well you need a crystal ball, my guess is as least 5 years until prices slowly start to increase from that bottom.


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## mrypg9 (Apr 26, 2008)

ninjabinger said:


> Excellent post mrypg, especially for people like myself who are not in Spain but thinking about a move there! I guess we shouldn't underestimate the scale of the bubble.
> 
> I was also thinking, if the typical fees alone for buying a very average house or apartment (maybe for 200k) are 10-12% (is this correct?), then that would work out 20k+ euro. Ignoring the vicissitudes of the housing market, you will thus definitely be 20k down to start with, money for which you could rent for 500 euro apartment for 4 years, or some kind of villa for 1000 euro for two years.


But as our wise old owl Baldy points out, it really is 'Horses for courses'. 
My way of looking at things isn't for everyone. At one time we owned several properties, commercial as well as residential, so I was into that ownership thing too,although not obsessively so.

We now live in a house, villa whatever you like to call it, which currently suits us perfectly. We have large gardens and a pool....but being realistic, in a few years time we, dog included, will be past rattling around this big house and will be looking for an equally nice but smaller place to live. This will be good in more than one way as we shall probably be paying more than 1000 euros a month less in rent at a time when we may need money for medical and other care. If we owned this house, we could still have the 'Se Vende' board outside when we are six feet under! The 'problem' with this house is that it isn't in the multi-million euro price bracket, so it's doubtful that a Russian or Chinese tycoon would want it...but it's beyond the price of the average merely 'well-off' buyer. Houses with original asking prices of well over a million euros are now priced at around 750k to 600k euros...and have been empty for years.

But the best thing for us about renting -unfurnished, we brought all our furniture and household effects with us -is the freedom....


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## Lolito (Aug 25, 2012)

I am Spanish myself and I am renting, the 'freedom' I have right now, it is most important. I am trying new areas around Spain, we were in the north of Valencia for a year, it was nice but we didn't like it, so we moved further south, we were paying only 340 euros per month for a lovely 2 bed brand new ground floor flat next to the beach. 

Now we pay 450 for a brand new villa with private pool, 4 beds and 3 baths, gardens, patios, terraces, garage... and we've been here for 1 year (at the end of the month), we are happy enough to stay for another year so we have renewed the contract.

Maybe next year we'll move to another area as there is a village nearby which we both love and we'll spend time researching the area and see what we could find. 

Not sure we'll buy, at the end of the day, it is so cheap to rent now in Spain that I think it is not worth buying, and why you rent, property values go down! 

I would not recommend anyone to come to Spain and buy something straight away, no matter how good or lovely it seems, as you'll get a shock coming from the UK and as soon as you arrive you see how cheap everything seems to be in Spain.

It all seems cheap while you come for a short while or a holiday, but when you move here definitely, I don't know why but it does not seem cheap anymore??? lol! 

Renting can give you the advantage of moving around Spain until you find the right place to settle and buy.


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## jp1 (Jun 11, 2011)

ninjabinger said:


> Excellent post mrypg, especially for people like myself who are not in Spain but thinking about a move there! I guess we shouldn't underestimate the scale of the bubble.
> 
> I was also thinking, if the typical fees alone for buying a very average house or apartment (maybe for 200k) are 10-12% (is this correct?), then that would work out 20k+ euro. Ignoring the vicissitudes of the housing market, you will thus definitely be 20k down to start with, money for which you could rent for 500 euro apartment for 4 years, or some kind of villa for 1000 euro for two years.



And that is the exact reason why Spanish property will never be a viable investment opportunity for a very very long time. Buyers of property will be buyers for personal needs only.


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## jp1 (Jun 11, 2011)

Lolito said:


> Now we pay 450 for a brand new villa with private pool, 4 beds and 3 baths, gardens, patios, terraces, garage... and we've been here for 1 year (at the end of the month), we are happy enough to stay for another year so we have renewed the contract.


My friend rents a 1 bedroom flat in Richmond, London, 3 minute walk from the river and town centre. An old Victorian property converted into small flats, living area and kitchen are one room. Overall the entire building is very dilapidated, in another part of the country it's the sort of accommodation that would be given to the homeless as emergency accommodation, (he won't like me saying that).

rent pcm £1200 !!

Your posts puts into context how cheap Spain at the moment has become for rental property.


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## 90199 (Mar 21, 2010)

Here my friend is trying to rent his fully furnished, 1 bedroom, apartment, including electricity, water and all other charges for €300 monthly. The apartment has garage space and is 3 minutes walk to the Ocean. No takers yet!


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## Lolito (Aug 25, 2012)

My friend rents a one bed flat ex local for 1200 quid in London


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## mrypg9 (Apr 26, 2008)

Lolito said:


> I am Spanish myself and I am renting, the 'freedom' I have right now, it is most important. I am trying new areas around Spain, we were in the north of Valencia for a year, it was nice but we didn't like it, so we moved further south, we were paying only 340 euros per month for a lovely 2 bed brand new ground floor flat next to the beach.
> 
> *Now we pay 450 for a brand new villa with private pool, 4 beds and 3 baths, gardens, patios, terraces, garage... *and we've been here for 1 year (at the end of the month), we are happy enough to stay for another year so we have renewed the contract.
> 
> ...


Round here you won't find a one-bedroom piso for 450 euros a month!! Tell me more aboiut where you live!!!


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## Lolito (Aug 25, 2012)

We live near gandia. near us there. is a house with four beds pool patio furnished and with air con. for 450 month


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## xabiaxica (Jun 23, 2009)

Lolito said:


> We live near gandia. near us there. is a house with four beds pool patio furnished and with air con. for 450 month


If I could persuade all my students to move to that area I'd take it!!


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## Megsmum (Sep 9, 2012)

jp1 said:


> And that is the exact reason why Spanish property will never be a viable investment opportunity for a very very long time. Buyers of property will be buyers for personal needs only.


For me and my husband moving later this year this is from a property purchase point of view and great opportunity as cash buyers etc etc. 

We will buy but not until we have rented for a while and are happy with the location, unless of course THE house that suits our needs comes along. However we are not looking for an investment, we are looking for a home. So if the house end up worth 1.5 millon great the Kids will be happy if its worth 10.50£ they wont be!


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## mrypg9 (Apr 26, 2008)

xabiachica said:


> If I could persuade all my students to move to that area I'd take it!!


Me too! Except I really like where we are.
But I've seen garages round here advertised at 450 euros a month. So a villa like that for 450 euros.....
Maybe it's near a glue factory, a cemetery and a slaughterhouse?
Come on, Lolito....we need to know more...


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## Lolito (Aug 25, 2012)

It is Miramar we live in, on the beach. 

You can google it. You can buy 1 bed flat for as little as 40,000 with sea views or houses with 3/4 beds for less than 500 rent a month. 

Just have a look here... Casa adosada en alquiler en Miramar, de 180 m² 4 habitaciones por 450 ? - u547435_3857791 | yaencontre.com

Although one of my favourites is this one... Casas y Cia. we went to see it twice... impressive and near wild deserted beaches. It has gone down a lot since we saw it last.


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## baldilocks (Mar 7, 2010)

ninjabinger said:


> Excellent post mrypg, especially for people like myself who are not in Spain but thinking about a move there! I guess we shouldn't underestimate the scale of the bubble.
> 
> I was also thinking, if the typical fees alone for buying a very average house or apartment (maybe for 200k) are 10-12% (is this correct?), then that would work out 20k+ euro. Ignoring the vicissitudes of the housing market, you will thus definitely be 20k down to start with, money for which you could rent for 500 euro apartment for 4 years, or some kind of villa for 1000 euro for two years.


I think you may be confused - the €500 apartment and €1000 villa are per MONTH not per annum and may or may not include local taxes and/or utilities.

As far as prices much also depends on location, location, location. Price-wise you can buy a half decent house (needs some -not a lot - of work) for upwards of €20k or rent a three-bedroomed apartment here for €350 p.m. The advantage of buying an inexpensive house and reforming it, is you get the house you want not somebody else's idea of what they wanted the house to be like which, if you are to make it what YOU want, can cost quite a lot.

So far our house 5 bedrooms, 2 bath, large attic 7m x 6m (suitable for another 2 bedrooms and another bath), five floors including a patio/workshop, lounge/diner 7m x 4m has cost us €85,000 + €7,000 costs plus we have spent about €5,000 on various changes (remodelling + partial aircon, etc)


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## jp1 (Jun 11, 2011)

baldilocks said:


> I think you may be confused - the €500 apartment and €1000 villa are per MONTH not per annum and may or may not include local taxes and/or utilities.


Umm I don't think he was confused, 20k Euros in costs to buy a house equates to renting a property at 500 Euros per month for 4 years.

500 * 12 * 4 = 24000 Euros (Ok a little more than 20k, but he was rounding figures up)


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## xabiaxica (Jun 23, 2009)

mrypg9 said:


> Me too! Except I really like where we are.
> But I've seen garages round here advertised at 450 euros a month. So a villa like that for 450 euros.....
> Maybe it's near a glue factory, a cemetery and a slaughterhouse?
> Come on, Lolito....we need to know more...


yes, I really like where we are, too


maybe when the girls leave school/me - then I'll be looking for something smaller & might consider moving to a little Spanish (as opposed to multi-cultural ) village


I'll probably turn into a mad cat lady in the campo


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## mrypg9 (Apr 26, 2008)

xabiachica said:


> yes, I really like where we are, too
> 
> 
> maybe when the girls leave school/me - then I'll be looking for something smaller & might consider moving to a little Spanish (as opposed to multi-cultural ) village
> ...


I've just had one of those on the phone...


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## mrypg9 (Apr 26, 2008)

Lolito said:


> It is Miramar we live in, on the beach.
> 
> You can google it. You can buy 1 bed flat for as little as 40,000 with sea views or houses with 3/4 beds for less than 500 rent a month.
> 
> ...



But that's an adosado for 450 euros, although very nice.
We have a detached house on a large double plot. How much per month for that type of villa, in a 'good' area?

Mind you, there are disadvantages in living in an area where everyone else is fairly well-off, namely that every house in this neighbourhood has been burgled.
The b******s who broke into our house must have been disappointed...their haul was only 170 euros in cash, an IPod Nano that was too small in GB for me anyway and a couple of pairs of ear-rings I bought from Sainsburys when in the UK , three on a card for £2.99....


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## Twain (May 24, 2009)

maxd said:


> So when is the bottom coming in the housing market?
> 
> Opinions please. I think this year will accelerate and bottom out 14/15.



Well, this is my opinion.

In 2010 I hoped that 2015 would be close to the bottom.
Today, I'm not sure if the bottom would be reached before 2020.

Why?
It's going too slow and noone wants to do what's needed to change it fast enough.
What is going too slow? Everything!
Unemployment is still rising. That's the wrong way to solve anything.
The local/regional/national economy is nowhere near a solution.

Also the market doesn't want or know how to fix itself.
First you have to get rid of all the many years old building skeletons.
As long as someone thinks they'll be able to sell them at a high price (or at all), the bottom is not even close.

Next, the marked is flooded with apartments both for short and long term let.
Before you see enough buyers/renters for these, you'll never see the bottom.
And today, the ratio between vacant apartments and the market wanting to rent them is very high in the "wrong" way (for the bottom to be seen).
The good thing about the apartments is that this part of the market knows that it's bad times and the prices seems right at the time. (some/most of the places).

Then you have all the sub standard houses. And I think that this is were the main problem lies.
The marked is flooded with sub standard houses that is OK for short term let in the summer, but not anyone would want to invest in for living there long term.
And I'm not only talking about location, but quality of everything related to those houses. And, the asking price is way too high.
Many luxury villa that would be ok to buy today, is as low in price as many of these sub standard houses. That's crazy (meaning the sub standard houses is way overpriced).
That has to change before you can talk about a bottom in the market too.

So, Spain has to sort out the economy and unemployment.
And the market has to sort out the rotten part of the building mass (first a big drop in prices then a removal from the market, yes someone has to lose their investment).
And both these things are going to take time.
So to talk about a bottom this year is not where I would've put my money.

It's tough times, but you can't just sit and wait for a miracle. That's not going to happen.

So what's my plan?
I'll sit on the fence and wait. (By that, doing my part to not see the bottom anytime soon, I know).
I do have the money but I'm not stupid enough to throw it away when I know I got better deals in the future and I'm able to wait that long.
So my plan was to build something in 2015, this is now postponed to at least 2020 (or as soon as sensible).
And yes, my plan (stupid or not) is to build something new. Because I don't want any of the skeletons, or the sub standard houses or the (still) too expensive luxury villas.
So you could say that I could just build it today, the building costs wont go down someone will tell you.
Well, I'm not so sure about that. And I'm willing to take the risk and wait.
Also, in these times the risk of moving to Spain is higher because of all the bureaucracy and regulatory changes related to the economy crisis.

In short, no I don't think we'll see the bottom shortly.
2020 may sound harsh, and I would be glad to be proven wrong. (since that means I'll be moving to Spain sooner).


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## maxd (Mar 22, 2009)

I am pretty much with the guy that says the bottom of the market is different increasing sales volume. People think things will keep going on down forever but you get to a point where it really makes no sense to sell unless you have to. We are probably a year or 2 from that point now.


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## Overandout (Nov 10, 2012)

The bottoming out of the market will happen when the investor begins to notice a shortage of cheap investment properties available.

Spain's problem however is that the cheap properties are not yet on the market. When the banking regulations changed to force the banks which had reposessed houses from defaulting mortgagees to value the assets in their books at market value instead of at the value of the debt, some thought that this would force the banks to release stock to the market. But it didn't really work.

The banks knew that they weren't really forced to do so because they would be artificially propped up by EU funds despite holding millions in over-valued real estate assets.

Now the "Banco Malo" is the second attempt at spurring the banks into an "obligatory" housing outlet style sell off.
If it works (which is still in doubt) by June we could see prices falling rapidly as the market is slowly filled with defaulted properties. If the investors come and start buying, it could, eventually, mean that the demand rises enough to stop the fall in sales prices when the cream has been skimmed off the top.

I reckon, based on my reasoning, that the earliest that it will bottom out is 2-3 years (the time taken for the forced sell off to have any real effect on supply). Then the "recovery" will be very very slow, maybe 20 years to reach 2006 prices (not accounting for inflation).

I am on the look out for a bargain, but as yet I still feel that Spain is clinging on to it's age old "if I don't sell it I don't care" attitude of old, for now at least.


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## Twain (May 24, 2009)

EDIT:
This was sort of a reply to maxd, but Overandout posted while I wrote it, so it's not a comment on what Overandout wrote (but I mostly agree with him, just not on the 2 year horizon)
---


So, redefining what the "bottom" is is a way to turn it around?
Or at least agree to what the bottom really is.

What defines the bottom of this market if not by sales?
The building boom has stopped and will not restart in a long time too.

You could argue that the bottom is hit when the price to buy is cheaper then to build. That's today in many/most regions. But that's just one side of the market. In itself not enough to say that the total bottom is reached.

You could argue that the bottom is hit when there is no more buyers (or tenants).
We're very close to that situation, but I agree that we'll most likely not see it at 100% stand still. And we're probably near the peak but it's not possible to say we're past it before we can confirm the numbers a year after (meaning that we'll have to compare this summers market with what happens next summer). 
I think we'll stay at the "peak" for a while. Just take a look at all the vacant holliday homes that the owners wants to rent out this summer for 1500 € pr week. And take a look at the booking calendar. Empty empty empty. Try to negotiate the price and most will tell you they can't or won't. And there you have it. Stand still. 
If the price would drop to the regular monthly price the marked would be much healthier.

But if the bottom is hit when there's no sense to sell your property, the bottom has already been reached for much of the market.
Already today it makes no sense to sell your property in Spain as it sure will be at a loss and not profit unless you're really in the very very small and lucky part of the market.

One of the few reasons to sell today would be if your income can't pay for the mortgage.
Then what? There is none/few willing to buy today meaning you're stuck with it - or take the loss. Too few are willing to take that loss today, therefor the bottom is not reached yet.

And yes, at some point you can't take the loss because you have nowhere else to go.
But we're not there yet.

Because there are too many properties on the market at a too high price today and the owners don't realise that the only way out (if they must get out) is to take the loss, we'll just see a postponed date of when this "bottom" is reached.
Why? Because as long as there are more properties available on the market then there's (sensible) buyers the prices will keep dropping (as long as there is someone that desperatly needs to get out of this market).

No, it can't keep going on forever. Someday there's no more owners that needs to get out or the buyers starts to take the risk on whatever the prices are at that time.
But that day is still far into the future and not by a couple of years I'm afraid.
For one thing, who's gona buy it? Where is the rich new home owners from? Norway? I don't think so (we're not that many norwegians hehe). I see that someone mentioned Russia and Kina. I don't think they will go for the rural parts of Spain.

The main reason for this long delay of when the market reaches the bottom is that the owners are in very high debt and the economy is going downwards at least a few more years. In this period you'll see price drops. Or fewer properties on the market (as the bank take them and don't rent them out or are able to sell them again as they don't want to take the loss either).
Then when the day comes that the economy is going better, you'll have the lag in the market for at least another year or two.

Harsh, yes, but I'm still with 2020 and would like to be proven wrong.
And every year we pass 2015 I probably end up in another country then Spain.

So what bottom do the market hit in one-two years time?
What do you see in the two years time that will change todays market that much?
I'm just trying to understand and see if there's things in the market that I'm not aware of or don't understand. But I need something more then "I think" from others to change my mind.

Keep in mind we're now in 2013, and this went bad in 2008 and still we're on the way down. It's a long time and two years to end/change it is a short time for many things to go the right way.


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## maxd (Mar 22, 2009)

Obviously it depends where but in Barcelona now funds are buying buildings in the centre at 1800 euros/m2. That was 5000 a few years back. Given the cost of building and land cost in Barcelona that is a deal in my book. We rent many apartments in Madrid and BCN for our business, buying is now definitelty cheaper than renting.

The CDS/Valencia is another story. Apartments everywhere and it will be depressed for years to come.


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## Twain (May 24, 2009)

So when you talk about the bottom you're talking about the bottom in the part of the market that you're in and not the market as a whole. Sorry I missed that, I thought you were talking about the whole market.

I can agree that this part of the market is very close to the bottom now but I still think it can go further down or at least stay at this level for some time.
Barcelona and Madrid will see a much faster rise of the prices when the market gets better.

Still, I think most of us are looking at other parts of the market (the larger part of it).
Not only at the costas but also inland.
And I don't see a change in that market for years to come.


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## baldilocks (Mar 7, 2010)

> Overandout: but as yet I still feel that Spain is clinging on to it's age old "if I don't sell it I don't care" attitude of old, for now at least.


Of course it is, because the majority of Spaniards who don't have mortgages don't need to sell and would rather hang on than sell at what *they* think is less than what a property is worth. 

There is also the problem of what we perceive are just empty properties, "why aren't they selling them?" when the simple answer is they can't. Frequently when a person dies intestate or sometimes even if there is a will, the n umber of heirs to the property may run to tens or even hundreds. Before they can sell, they all have to agree a) to sell, and b) for how much, and this is assuming that all the interested parties can be, or are willing to be, contacted. Then, of course, many of the old political rivalries resurface, in which case, forget that property and look for something else.


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## Deb1234 (Feb 13, 2013)

But surely a long term purchase will eventually be profitably won't it?


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## Dunpleecin (Dec 20, 2012)

Deb1234 said:


> But surely a long term purchase will eventually be profitably won't it?


I'd like to think so. I think too much is made of the financial situation. At the end of the day, if you want to buy a place in Spain (or wherever for that matter) then there will be lots of reasons for your decision. For me, being able to afford it, being in a decent location, having a nice climate and the actual property being to your expectations and standards is the most important. If you also consider what the equivalent living space would cost in the UK (if that's where you're coming from) then a resale Spanish property is a good buy at this time. 

For me, I'm not taking a gamble on my home, I'm buying somewhere I want to stay and I'm not buying with the intention of making a profit anytime soon. I might live to regret it if things don't work out, but I believe I've done enough research to know that I'll be happy there so don't expect to regret anything.

Leave the speculators to speculate. If you see somewhere you like, that you can afford and where you know you will be staying, buy it! It's certainly a better option than renting unless you want to throw money away. Even if you do rent, Spain is a big country and once you rent somewhere, if it's not where you want, you've wasted your money.


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## SteveScot (Feb 11, 2013)

Interesting post this...
Something I have mulled over on many a night recently.

I've been both lucky and unlucky with house buying over the years. I owned a house in Ireland when the market was booming and got out right at the top of the market, making a nice bit of a profit from it (and feel bad for the new owners as that property appears now to be worth half of what they paid for it) and similarly, when I moved back to the UK and needed somewhere to live, I bought a flat (which personally I thought was overpriced but there were so few properties available at the time) which turned out to be at the top of the UK market. So.... swings and roundabouts. Fortunately, I have no need to sell the UK property any time soon and could rent it out if need be. The annoying part is that if I did want to move it on, currently I'd lose what I had put into it as a deposit.

On to Spain....
I had always wanted to own a small house in Spain, but had felt a number of years ago that the dream was beyond reach. Prices, as everyone knows, had rocketed.
2 and a half years ago however, I realised that with the drop in prices, I could afford to buy a small place in Costa Blanca and did so. I made a daft offer to the vendor and it was accepted. I've been really happy with my purchase and have spent numerous holidays there since.
However, since then I think the value has dropped a bit more.... not by much, but around 5%. Again, I'm not concerned overly though. As I have no intention of selling it and the repayments are affordable. My long term plan is to retire there....

I think that until both a) the Spanish economy turns around and b) places like the UK also turn around, the market may well slip lower still, then slowly recover. This is all crystal ball gazing though, so the time frame is anyone's guess. I'm going for 2016-18 ish haha...


Obviously different people have different reasons for buying. Personally, it wasn't as an investment as such, but more to tie in the profit I had made from the Irish house into something tangible that I can use in the future rather than just fritter it away on a new car etc. I feel that in 10 years time, my Spanish property will at least have held its value, but if not, then c'est la vie... I came into the world with nothing, so anything is a bonus....


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## Megsmum (Sep 9, 2012)

Dunpleecin said:


> I'd like to think so. I think too much is made of the financial situation. At the end of the day, if you want to buy a place in Spain (or wherever for that matter) then there will be lots of reasons for your decision. For me, being able to afford it, being in a decent location, having a nice climate and the actual property being to your expectations and standards is the most important. If you also consider what the equivalent living space would cost in the UK (if that's where you're coming from) then a resale Spanish property is a good buy at this time.
> 
> For me, I'm not taking a gamble on my home, I'm buying somewhere I want to stay and I'm not buying with the intention of making a profit anytime soon. I might live to regret it if things don't work out, but I believe I've done enough research to know that I'll be happy there so don't expect to regret anything.
> 
> Leave the speculators to speculate. If you see somewhere you like, that you can afford and where you know you will be staying, buy it! It's certainly a better option than renting unless you want to throw money away. Even if you do rent, Spain is a big country and once you rent somewhere, if it's not where you want, you've wasted your money.


I could not agree more. we are visiting next week to look at different locations and houses on offer. We are looking to buy a home not an investment. 

We are looking forward to finding our new home and location in which to live our new life


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## Guest (Feb 14, 2013)

maxd said:


> So when is the bottom coming in the housing market?
> 
> Opinions please. I think this year will accelerate and bottom out 14/15.


I read an article in the Observer last weekend saying that some EU Countries were showing signs of recovery and that the house prices were "bottoming out" but they reckoned that Spain is not and still has a further 20% to fall (property prices) before people will start buying again.


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## Overandout (Nov 10, 2012)

Danny&Claire said:


> I read an article in the Observer last weekend saying that some EU Countries were showing signs of recovery and that the house prices were "bottoming out" but they reckoned that Spain is not and still has a further 20% to fall (property prices) before people will start buying again.



That makes sense really. The banks are now being forced to release their propoerty portfolios onto the market, which, although not in a tsunami style, will icrease supply way beyond current demand.

Pretty soon you'll be able to buy a two bed flat flat in the suburbs of Madrid for the price of a new BMW 3 series... that's got to be attractive to investors.


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## NickZ (Jun 26, 2009)

maxd said:


> So when is the bottom coming in the housing market?
> 
> .


When people stop asking when the market will bottom.


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## Dunpleecin (Dec 20, 2012)

Just as a supplementary to my previous post.

I think one thing that some people on here are assuming is that there is lots of stock available at cheap prices and there are no buyers. I'm not so sure that's true, although it might depend on which way you are looking at it. From an investers point of view, for a cash purchase, there appears to be lots of stock available but they are frightened of investing in case their asset loses money. This is a fair point. But then again, this is also true in the UK. In the UK houses are much more expensive and yet what do you get for your money? Not a lot. Unless you want to buy a property in auction and renovate it, which takes time and even more investment. Property buying has always surely been a long term investment, so what are investors waiting for? Perhaps prices will go down before they go up, but as a long term investment, surely any small loss in the short term is worth taking for the long term benefits?

From the point of view of someone who wants to live in their house, I don't think there is an overstock at all. Or maybe it just depends what area you are looking at? I spent two weeks recently looking at properties both "New" and resales and the vast majority of them I wouldn't live in if you paid me. Indeed one place was like opening the mummy's tomb, such was the mustiness and my partner has had a bad chest since looking at that one. We did settle on one which ticks all the boxes for us and hopefully we will get the smallish loan we need to complete the purchase.

What I would say to investors is invest. If you're looking long term you can't go wrong. If you're out to make a quick buck, forget it. But that's always been the case.

What I would say to buyers buying a home is don't worry about the market "Bottoming out" unless your position is so tight that you face serious negative equity and your income is at risk. If you can afford to buy, do it and whilst other people are saying should I or shouldn't I, you can be living the dream getting a property at a good price.


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