# Is dubai emptying?



## desertdweller (Feb 12, 2009)

Is Dubai emptying. The springs seems like there are 20% of villas empty. whats peoples views on this and when do you think a recovery will start if there is going to be one?


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## Andy Capp (Oct 5, 2008)

desertdweller, have you ever lived in Hong Kong?


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## bigdave (Oct 22, 2008)

andy, have you ever lived in Texas?


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## Andy Capp (Oct 5, 2008)

There's a reason for my question, that certain people here will understand....


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## desertdweller (Feb 12, 2009)

have I ever lived in Hong Kong. No. Been there and its ok. Whats that gotta do with the price of fish?


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## Andy Capp (Oct 5, 2008)

It's all in a name....


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## desertdweller (Feb 12, 2009)

Andy, 
I don't have a clue what you're on about? I want to have a constructive discussion on what peoples opinions are on the current regional slowdown and when they feel a recovery will take place. Imyself are still seeing businesses growing and recruiting but see empty villas. Dubai Gov state more visas are given than cancelled and the regional growth is 3% (dubai 1% I think)....whats your view? 
PS. Have you ever lived in Swansea?


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## flossie (Jun 9, 2008)

Firstly, take everything the government states with a bucket of salt. 

Yes, I think it's getting quieter. Dubai's population is meant to shrink around 8% this year. Villas are empty, rents are dropping and schools are meant to be losing students. That said, neither of my kids have lost any students in their classes. Personally, I don't know anyone who has left after being made redundant. But then, my husband isn't in construction or real estate, so maybe that's why?


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## flossie (Jun 9, 2008)

Oh, I think Andy is implying that Dubai might be heading the way Hong Kong went years ago?


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## desertdweller (Feb 12, 2009)

Thats the sort of info I'm looking for .....No kids left from the school etc.. Hong Kong? Same as Singapore I guess you mean..? But if there aren't kids leaving school..property sector ....needed to cool down ..Dubai still has so much to grow as far as new industries/business. Is an 8% reduction in population really an appropriate estimation. And is that low end labour force that makes up that figure or ABC1 social class...? Are you aware of any new businesses still opening here and investing in the region?


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## dash567 (Nov 5, 2008)

desertdweller said:


> Thats the sort of info I'm looking for .....No kids left from the school etc.. Hong Kong? Same as Singapore I guess you mean..? But if there aren't kids leaving school..property sector ....needed to cool down ..Dubai still has so much to grow as far as new industries/business. Is an 8% reduction in population really an appropriate estimation. And is that low end labour force that makes up that figure or ABC1 social class...? Are you aware of any new businesses still opening here and investing in the region?


According to a number of taxi drivers and chauffeurs, dubai has emptied (since ze klemme) to the extent that it is allegedly noticeable in the level of traffic around town!?


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## DXB-NY (Oct 6, 2008)

seems like the Laborers are not counted in the number of "humans" leaving Dubai. Just the Mid level managers and CEO's


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## flossie (Jun 9, 2008)

I didn't say there were not kids leaving the school. I said no children from my kids' classes have left. Apparently, 100 kids have left. But that could be a Dubai rumour.

I was just trying to tell you what I have experienced, personally. I am an active member on another board made up mainly of women. Quite a few of the husbands of these women have lost their jobs, but I don't know them personally. As I said, I guess it depends on the industry. Because my husband works in Oil, we tend to socialise more with people who are in the same field. None of the people we know have lost their jobs. 

As an aside, I have heard people say the oil and gas industry is still booming. Trust me, it's not!!!


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## flossie (Jun 9, 2008)

The amount of taxis parked at Spinneys in the Meadows is amazing. It used to be that way about 2 years ago, then we never saw them, now they're back. The 8% figure, I believe is made up of all people. Labourers still need residency visas.

Wanted to add, there are alot less tourists around, too. Especially considering the DSF is on. This would also explain the abundance of taxis.


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## Andrew Farrant (Feb 9, 2009)

desertdweller said:


> Are you aware of any new businesses still opening here and investing in the region?


The world's biggest computer company has relocated it's head office for one of it's geographies (emerging markets) to Dubai and are investing very heavily in the region...... that (I believe) has entailed recruiting a couple of hundred people, so yes, companies are investing.


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## inlimbo (Sep 11, 2008)

There is an article in todays NY Times thats actually touching on this subject

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/12/world/middleeast/12dubai.html?_r=1&em 

"Ghost town", might be a bit overkill....


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## webjunky (Feb 11, 2009)

i am not sure if it is emptying...but population is certainly reducing. why does one migrate to a place? the biggest reason is for employment. when employment picks up, so will the population. unless the locals procreate at a rapid rate like china and india to make it a self sustaining emirate rather than relying on the expatriate community


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## desertdweller (Feb 12, 2009)

From my view Dubai is now more of a manageable number. You can actually get out of the springs in a morning, get a taxi, get to thye bar in barasti and not que all day if you choose to go to the other side of the creek after 5pm. 
So...Who are goig to fill all the new villas in the Jumeirah Park/Village and how much are villa rent prices going to drop too? I was searching for a 2 bed yesterday and you can now getthem for 130! How much further will they drop?


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## Andrew Farrant (Feb 9, 2009)

Desertdweller - I am not there yet - I am hoping to be for 1st March so I am very interested in your comments about prices - 

Can you be a little clearer about where you looked please, whether it was villa or apartment and what the current rental prices are - I will have a fixed housing allowance so am interested in what I can get for my money and where.

Thanks


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## desertdweller (Feb 12, 2009)

Hi Andrew,

If you are single I'd look at aprtments. If a family villas are good in Mirdif, Springs, Meadows ..dependant on your budget. I currently reside in the Springs which is a good area. 2 beds are 140K (prob wll get for 130K on offer) 3 beds 180kish.


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## desertdweller (Feb 12, 2009)

ps. Keep an eye over the next three months though cos they will dop more. Offer 12 cheques as well as oppose to 1 cheque. Its a tennants market now here. The landlords have had it far to good for far to long.
Good luck.


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## Andrew Farrant (Feb 9, 2009)

Thanks, my allowance will be 170K AED so I should be OK. How do those three areas compare with Al Barsha which seems to be a decent choice for people working in Internet City ????


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## qwert97 (Jun 2, 2008)

I work in the property sector and the predictions are that the worst is yet to come. There will be a gradual decline in property prices and the worst is expected to be in Q3 or Q4 2009. The next 10 month will be worst in terms of redundancies and the job market. The rumors are that the month of April will see a lot of people leave Dubai since there are a lot of people who are just hanging to see the school year end. The next biggest month will probably be July when the next batch of school year ends.

The recovery will probably take a year from now and the job market will start to improve in Q1/Q2-2010. It also depends on how far US is able to recover as a nation since many economies are dependent on them.

These are just expectations based on now based on my readings on the internet and I might be wrong.


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## desertdweller (Feb 12, 2009)

All good information. This is what I like. Individual forecasts and guesstimations on when things will get better. Everyone generally does think the end of 2009 start of 2010. I agree with this unless Abu Dhabi helps out its little sister emirate. 
Al Basha if nice. A bit of construction ging on. 170k accom allowance is a good allowance. Sounds like you'll be covered. 
I'm still optimistc for this region. Its surely better off than western Europe at present. I hope it turns bak round as quickly as it dropped.


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## cadas (Sep 18, 2008)

It has become a bit of a ghost town. I work out of jebal ali and the trip home shows this. In november it took over an hour just to get to the exit gate, then half to one hour to get home, now 15-20mins. Food court is also half empty at lunch time. 

Times are tough in construction and will get worse. A lot of developers (mine included) are living on last years budgets and loans agreed before the crunch. You want to see the terror in our cfo's eyes now he can't get a new loan to service the borrowings of last couple of years. 

But, on top of that, and this bit is good for the industry. There is a lot of clearing of deadwood. As a developement director I see a succession of 'consultants' on 80-90k a month who came here 3-4 years ago and either were crap when they came or became lazy. My first three months here resulted in the sacking of every consultant who I inherited. The clearout can only benefit the industry. 

Things will turn around, we are confident, but there is a strong rumour of something significant happening at the end of Q2. I suspect there is a big 'deal' pending for then. Cfo's of the 'big' developers here are asking everyone to hold till then.


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## StublueKPL (Dec 21, 2008)

Andrew Farrant said:


> Thanks, my allowance will be 170K AED so I should be OK. How do those three areas compare with Al Barsha which seems to be a decent choice for people working in Internet City ????


I have been looking for an apartment lately and I have decided to do a short term deal until June when the schools end. I think its going to drop even more when that happens as many people may upsticks and leave for home. But of course no-one really knows but i think its entirely feasible.

With 170k you should have no problems whatsoever getting a decent place (even now and especially then)


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## sgilli3 (Mar 23, 2008)

cadas said:


> It has become a bit of a ghost town. I work out of jebal ali and the trip home shows this. In november it took over an hour just to get to the exit gate, then half to one hour to get home, now 15-20mins. Food court is also half empty at lunch time.
> 
> Times are tough in construction and will get worse. A lot of developers (mine included) are living on last years budgets and loans agreed before the crunch. You want to see the terror in our cfo's eyes now he can't get a new loan to service the borrowings of last couple of years.
> 
> ...


I really agree with what you have said about clearing the deadwood.
I feel for everyone who has been made redundant- but- a lot of the construction companies we deal with were way overstaffed.
In some cases, there were 3 or 4 people doing the job that 1 person could do.

We know many, who abused their "positions' within companies, hiring more people ( as it looked better for them to have lots of people working for them), living on huge salaries( and not really earning them), and becoming very lazy ......obviously not everyone was like this.

We have a construction company, and thankfully business is still the same for us ( though we have encountered a few slow payers- though nothing legal action wont solve).
None of the projects we are working on/planning on have been shelved or cancelled.

I think it also will pick up again, probably within the next 12 months- probably not back to the same degree as it was- but I think at more reasonable pace- which is more realistic.


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## desertdweller (Feb 12, 2009)

Cadas,
Any more inside info on the Q2 deal?? I've heard myself all saying that Q3 will be the turn around point. I dont believe it to be a ghost town. A lot more quiet but yesterday I went skiing to MOE and it was packed. You couldnt get a table anywhere. 
The ones who have ******ed off are def the crappy rec companies and the dodgy real estate pin stripe wearers! Good ridence. 

And Sublu....170K will get you a v nice 2 bed in the Marina or JBR now. You can haggle now and prob get a lot cheaper than 170K.


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## DXB-NY (Oct 6, 2008)

why would anyone offer 12 cheques with the current state of affairs? am i missing something here?


desertdweller said:


> ps. Keep an eye over the next three months though cos they will dop more. Offer 12 cheques as well as oppose to 1 cheque. Its a tennants market now here. The landlords have had it far to good for far to long.
> Good luck.


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## HelenG (Oct 21, 2008)

Why not? Why should we be forced to pay all of the rent up front? If your employer doesn't pay the rent for you then you have to get a loan to pay your rent. There are plenty of places in Discovery Gardens being advertised with payment in 12 cheques. If its not advertised for 12 cheques, then ask. Shy bairns get nowt!


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## alli (Mar 6, 2008)

helen, can you link me to these properties in Disc. Gardens for 12 cheques?


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## HelenG (Oct 21, 2008)

These are just a few from Dubizzle that have been posted up today. But given the number of places being advertised its worth haggling. There are loads more advertised for 6 cheques and 4 cheques. You wouldn't have seen this 4-5 months ago.

Dubizzle.com - Dubai Property for Rent - Apartment/Flat - SPACIOUS 1 BEDROOM APARTMENTS @ 85,000 12 CHEQUES!!!!

Dubizzle.com - Dubai Property for Rent - Apartment/Flat - ***1BR, PAY IN 12 CHEQUES 85K[email protected] GARDENS

Dubizzle.com - Dubai Property for Rent - Apartment/Flat - 1 BR in discovery gardens 70,000 ( 4 chqs) and 80,000 (12 chqs) call now 0508034511

Dubizzle.com - Dubai Property for Rent - Apartment/Flat - 60K with 12 chqs STUDIO IN DISCOVERY GARDENS.


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## Lenochka (Apr 19, 2008)

I agree that 4 or 12 cheques would be much nicer than 1 cheque....however, it only solves the cash flow issue if one is still forced to sign a rent for a full year. What would make a much bigger difference if one could rent an apartment with unlimited contract, with a termination period of 3 months or so from both sides. This is the case in most of Europe and the rest of the world......and would make live much for easier if you need to move, lost your job etc etc. 

as said, it;s a cash flow issue....the rental term needs to change to make it really easier !


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## mayotom (Nov 8, 2008)

Its definately getting quieter, traffic is down, footfall in the malls is down, hotels are empty, 

I've just taken a studio in Int City for AED4000 per month on a monthly contract. things are changing for the better


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## Pasanada (Feb 5, 2008)

Good to see prices are coming down in International City; my employer was paying AED3500 p/m a year ago for a studio....then prices rocketed to to AED5000 a couple of months after I moved in!!

I was in Greece Cluster, nice apts but the snag list should have been done on completion!!


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## alli (Mar 6, 2008)

thanks so much helen!!


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## ghandi2485 (Nov 18, 2008)

Lenochka said:


> I agree that 4 or 12 cheques would be much nicer than 1 cheque....however, it only solves the cash flow issue if one is still forced to sign a rent for a full year. What would make a much bigger difference if one could rent an apartment with unlimited contract, with a termination period of 3 months or so from both sides. This is the case in most of Europe and the rest of the world......and would make live much for easier if you need to move, lost your job etc etc.
> 
> as said, it;s a cash flow issue....the rental term needs to change to make it really easier !


Lenochka - I agree with your point. Having multiple cheques doesn't solve the problem - the contract is still 1 year and if you cancel halfway and leave or a cheque bounces, youre in trouble and probably wouldnt want to come back to the UAE. Multiple cheques only help people who don't/can't get housing allowance from their company up front, but you are still bound to a contract and the cheques are still given post dated to the landlord to bank.

Answer = Either get a place on a rolling contract (monthly, 3 monthly are avail now commonly) or do what I did - negotiate for less cheques to bring the cost down but get your legal team in your company to write an enforcing break clause and put that in the contract for the landlord to sign up to. If you quit out you just break the contract with 2-3 months notice (dependant on what you negotiate) and monies have to be paid back etc


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