# Euro rate



## andyviola (Aug 11, 2018)

The key MRP method YouGov poll to predict continuency results will be published around 8 to 9 pm tonight Spain time.
Euro exchange rate market is likely to react significantly to this poll as it was the best predictor of 2017 result. Biggest move likely is if it predicts Hung parliament as markets currently have Boris majority and Brexit certainty factored in.
Hope that helps!


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## andyviola (Aug 11, 2018)

Deleted. Carry on.....


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## Alcalaina (Aug 6, 2010)

Results:
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...g-parliament-a-real-possibly-polling-suggests


> YouGov’s second and much-hyped constituency-by-constituency poll puts the Conservatives unchanged on 43% and Labour on 34%, up two points on its previous effort a fortnight before.
> 
> The result is that Boris Johnson’s notional majority has been cut from 68 to 28 as his party’s seat count falls by 20 to 339 and Labour’s improves by the same amount to 231. The SNP takes 41 and the Liberal Democrats 15.


This morning's exchange rate unchanged at £1 - €1.19.


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## andyviola (Aug 11, 2018)

Indeed as con majority still predicted as per factored into market predictions 🙂


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## nigele2 (Dec 25, 2009)

andyviola said:


> Indeed as con majority still predicted as per factored into market predictions 🙂


I thought of doing a bit of business but I think breaking 1,20 is on the cards. Possibly as much to do with EU instability as Boris. As you say a Tory win I think is factored in give or take a cent. 

Interesting the WTO issues, and the US breaking the rules, has come along at this time. That could strengthen Boris's hand. He seems to be on a roll at the moment - not that he has had much opposition to write home about.

And obviously a 'bye bye' Trump might increase the turbulence. Exciting times for sure. 

But which wine with turkey, and what to serve the vegans takes priority. Plus where to get the parsnips????


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## andyviola (Aug 11, 2018)

Haha yes good analysis ...i chucked 10k across as I really felt there would be a shock for Boris. Think markets say max of 1.25 if deal progresses well.


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## Alcalaina (Aug 6, 2010)

nigele2 said:


> Plus where to get the parsnips????


Doesn't anyone in your area do a Gibraltar run? We take turns to go to Morrisons and fulfill each other's requirements for teabags, vintage cheddar, parsnips etc.


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## nigele2 (Dec 25, 2009)

Alcalaina said:


> Doesn't anyone in your area do a Gibraltar run? We take turns to go to Morrisons and fulfill each other's requirements for teabags, vintage cheddar, parsnips etc.


Alcalaina I live entirely with Spaniards and only know one brit who I wouldn't get that close to. And I'm not doing a 4 hour round trip for a few parsnips 

Seriously I think El Corte in Cadiz will have some. And maybe some swede. I can do everything else. Seven plus two dogs this year 

Hope you have a good one down in our southwest corner


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## andyviola (Aug 11, 2018)

I miss gold old fashioned uk high calorie chicken pies. I will have to take up baking as a hobby.


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## Lynn R (Feb 21, 2014)

As the sterling/euro exchange rate is now down to €1.1789, is this indication that the markets DON'T think Boris Johnson is in line to get a workable majority?


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## andyviola (Aug 11, 2018)

They hedging bets a bit ... yes i would say 1 in 4 chance he won't... if you look at poll trend and his last-minute idiocy.

Fascinating to read that markets also dont like a small majority less than 10 as the really hard brexit tories number about that much and may hold him to ransom to hard brexit which markets hate!


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## nigele2 (Dec 25, 2009)

Lynn R said:


> As the sterling/euro exchange rate is now down to €1.1789, is this indication that the markets DON'T think Boris Johnson is in line to get a workable majority?


Jejeje I guess speculators could have some access to the exit poll data but that would be difficult to interpret. So what would make them change their minds? And the markets look strong and upbeat. So I'd guess the sterling movement is just traders balancing the books and tightening their positions. 

I'm guessing Boris gets a majority but only 10 to 12. That close. But it is tough and great fun this time. Haven't seen one like this in my life time - well not that I remember - memory being a different problem 

Anyway enjoy one and all because this is history in the making, which ever way it goes


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## andyviola (Aug 11, 2018)

Haha yes it's gonna be a helluva entertaining night and i will be dead for my 0930 Spanish class!
As I said a majority of 10 could damage the pound as there could be trouble passing the bill....


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## nigele2 (Dec 25, 2009)

andyviola said:


> As I said a majority of 10 could damage the pound as there could be trouble passing the bill....


One thing I'm looking forward to is some over confident politicians that don't survive. Could be 2 or 3 big names go tonight. 

Be amazing if Boris went down but got his majority - well it would be someone else's majority  And the Lib leader is not in a great place either.

Anyway Cava on ice so all set. Although I have a flamenco guitar lesson at 10  At least I have 30 minutes on you AndyViola


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## andyviola (Aug 11, 2018)

Haha nigela. At least i will only appear slightly more dumb than usual. Yea I adore politics so heaven for me. All exit polls correct (enough) since 1997 so if you hate it watch at 11pm only...


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## Megsmum (Sep 9, 2012)

nigele2 said:


> Alcalaina I live entirely with Spaniards and only know one brit who I wouldn't get that close to. And I'm not doing a 4 hour round trip for a few parsnips
> 
> Seriously I think El Corte in Cadiz will have some. And maybe some swede. I can do everything else. Seven plus two dogs this year
> 
> Hope you have a good one down in our southwest corner


Le Clerc sell them here in Extremadura, do you have one nearby (parsnips)


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## nigele2 (Dec 25, 2009)

andyviola said:


> Haha nigela. At least i will only appear slightly more dumb than usual. Yea I adore politics so heaven for me. All exit polls correct (enough) since 1997 so if you hate it watch at 11pm only...


Tx Megsmum but never seen one - the shop not the parsnips 

But I do love a roast parsnip. Mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm


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## nigele2 (Dec 25, 2009)

Pound back over 1:18. Oooooooooooooo I ll go and fill my glass.


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## andyviola (Aug 11, 2018)

how we moved from euro to parsnips...this is almost Chinese whispers lol


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## andyviola (Aug 11, 2018)

Hahahaha amazing why do i ever listen to opinion polls! Should have deferred my 10k move.... euro has already shot up to 1.20!


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## Isobella (Oct 16, 2014)

Lynn R said:


> As the sterling/euro exchange rate is now down to €1.1789, is this indication that the markets DON'T think Boris Johnson is in line to get a workable majority?


Now 1.21, may slip back after the champagne.


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## andyviola (Aug 11, 2018)

Isobella said:


> Lynn R said:
> 
> 
> > As the sterling/euro exchange rate is now down to €1.1789, is this indication that the markets DON'T think Boris Johnson is in line to get a workable majority?
> ...



Haha indeed and now 1.20. wonder if will stabilise or creep up a little when they sobered up...


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## baldilocks (Mar 7, 2010)

nigele2 said:


> Alcalaina I live entirely with Spaniards and only know one brit who I wouldn't get that close to. And I'm not doing a 4 hour round trip for a few parsnips
> 
> Seriously I think El Corte in Cadiz will have some. And maybe some swede. I can do everything else. Seven plus two dogs this year
> 
> Hope you have a good one down in our southwest corner


We have friends who have a daughter down on the costa del sol - they pop into Iceland for any Brit stuff we want and they have our order for parsnips. SWMBO likes them, I don't.


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## andyviola (Aug 11, 2018)

And a parsnip on a pear tree ( from Iceland and Morrisons)...


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## andyviola (Aug 11, 2018)

It's "way" back down to 1.17 now so I guess I happy ish at moving my money at 1.185


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## Alcalaina (Aug 6, 2010)

andyviola said:


> It's "way" back down to 1.17 now so I guess I happy ish at moving my money at 1.185


Me too.  And we won €120 on El Gordo. Off out now for the traditional Christmas Eve pub crawl round the village ... felices fiestas everybody!


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## andyviola (Aug 11, 2018)

Alcalaina said:


> andyviola said:
> 
> 
> > It's "way" back down to 1.17 now so I guess I happy ish at moving my money at 1.185
> ...


Lol. The most popular present at xmas in Spain is lottery tickets. OPTIMISTIC lot!


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