# Violence Prognosis?



## YaVengo (Jul 7, 2009)

Any thoughts on when/if the Mx. government will ever get control back from the narcos? How long can this growing violence continue? At least from here (NOB) it sounds like the narcos are in control and the govn't is playing catch-up and bandaids. I would think that if the govn't was serious they would take serious (extreme) measures. It sounds worse than the crime we have here but maybe that's the media. I live near and work in Chicago. I know there is crime but I (knock on wood) have been able to avoid it by knowing where/when to avoid.
Rich


----------



## circle110 (Jul 20, 2009)

YaVengo said:


> I live near and work in Chicago. I know there is crime but I (knock on wood) have been able to avoid it by knowing where/when to avoid.
> Rich


First of all, the media exaggerates this quite a bit. I don't spend any time in fear of violence here in Guanajuato. When I travel in Mexico, I do the same here as you in Chicago (where I lived until a year and a half ago) and avoid the known trouble spots and keep my wits about me. When I return to the US, I can't believe the BS that is being feed to the unsuspecting public there via the media. However, there IS indeed violence in many parts of Mexico -- it is not a complete fabrication by any stretch.

(Political comments snipped)

(Snipped) I think things will reach a tipping point at some time in the coming years because the problem is slowly coming home to roost in the US -- it emanates from there in the first place. 

As Americans, we need to look in the mirror on this one.

RVGRINGO, if I got too close to politics on this one, delete it if necessary but it felt good to write in any case. (It did; I did)


----------



## f3drivr (Nov 18, 2008)

In Mazatlan the shootings are happening almost daily. The police are driving around heavily armed in convoys of about 6 trucks which creates the illusion that there is good security but they never seem to be around when the shootings happen and always arrive after the assailants have left the area. Most people I have spoken to believe that the government will never get control but they do believe that the violence will stop after Calderon's term is up in 2012 and a new president is elected (Dangerous political comment removed. The poster is cautioned).


----------



## tepetapan (Sep 30, 2010)

If you take North Ave. east about 20 or 30 minutes from Wheaton the gang bangers have as much control there as the cartels do of Mexico. I worked in Wheaton and all the Chicago area, you may be able to walk the streets at night there ( in Wheaton) but I doubt you do. Mexico is nothing like the (Midwest & US) media shows on TV. In fact, stating the Mexican government does not have control is quite an insult to the Mexican people. When the world¨s largest consumer of illegal drugs demand more, someone is ready and willing to supply them. As it is, the US government has no control over the drug additcs in their country. They have done little to stop the demand for tons of cocaine every month. I guess at this point you have to wonder if they really want to stop the flow. It is a business there as it is here. 
In Vancouver BC I am told by people (Snipped) who are in my RV park at this moment, that gang killings are everyday occurances, sometimes mass killings of 5 or 6 people at one time. What makes those killings so much different than ones in Mexico? Why does not the US media start pointing the finger at them? Exporting home grown pot from Canada and field grown pot from Mexico seems pretty much the same thing, except the pot from Canada is much stronger and in higher demand ( and cost). The meth labs in canada, exporting to the USA is another matter.
Never mind, it´s just easier to blame Mexico.


----------



## RVGRINGO (May 16, 2007)

Posters are cautioned to avoid direct political comment. Statement of facts is OK, but be sure you can support them. There is a lot of exaggeration and misinformation floating around.


----------



## pappabee (Jun 22, 2010)

One of the things that we need to remember is that visits from NOB are down about 20% and much of that is caused by the rabid NOB Press trying to increase their numbers by reporting over and over the drug violence down here. 

Yes there is a lot of violence here and there is a lot of it NOB also. But according to the Guadulope Reporter there were only 31 break-ins in Jalisco in 2010. Even if there were an additional 31 that were not reported that makes only 62 in the entire year. Many NOB cities have that many in a month. 

In my talking to business men and women here in lakeside I have found that most of them say that their business is down from last year and that they are hurting. To a one they blame the NOB press and the NOB governments for the reduction in traffic. One told me that it only made good sense to try to keep the people at home so that they would spend their money there where the governments could get their share. (he didn’t put it quite that way but I’ve cleaned it up for this post). 

Is it safer to live here? Is it safer to live anywhere else? In life we are told that we must take the good with the bad. Yes there is bad here (just like everywhere else) but the good far outshines the bad.

We choose to live here because of all the beauty and joy we find here (both in the area and in the people). For those of you who were around for the hippy years there was a question that was asked many times. “where else would you rather live”. We have answered that very loudly. HERE!!!!!!!!!!


----------



## ReefHound (Aug 9, 2010)

Nonsense. First, the NOB press only reports a miniscule fraction of the violence that occurs in Mexico. That's why sites like Borderland Beat have developed a following, because the NOB press isn't interested unless there is something dramatic about an incident, i.e. involves a politician, involves mass casualties, is particularly cruel and heinous, etc. If it is dramatic the NOB press will report it whether it happens in Mexico, Iraq, or even the U.S.

Second, it's mostly Mexicans who have cut back not Americans. Except for tourist destinations, tourists account for a tiny percentage of sales for most businesses. I'm not saying anything specifically about Ajijic or Chapal - maybe I just didn't realize what hot tourist destinations they were - but across Mexico in cities like Monterrey and SLP (not to mention border towns) the streets empty after dark. Night life, clubs, and restaurants close early if open at all. It's primarily Mexicans that are not spending and investing, and you can't blame that on the NOB press.

Everyone needs a scape goat, an easy target to blame, so go on blaming the evil NOB media if you must but for most Americans it's a trivial issue, a flip decision to go to Bahamas instead of Mexico, worth a few minutes of chat around the coffee bar to go along with chat about the SuperBowl or World Series. It's the Mexicans on the ground, who get their news word of mouth "en la calle" not the NOB press, who are most in fear and most withdrawn.


----------



## conorkilleen (Apr 28, 2010)

Its my personal belief that the only time Americans should be nervous about living/working/vacationing in Mexico is if the US send in troops to combat the violence. I doubt that will ever happen. The Mexican people are a hardy bunch and I doubt that this violence will last for ever. I was in the Monterrey's Mexican History Museum a few weeks ago on a visit and took a guided tour....believe me, whats happening now will also be in that museum soon enough....it will be history just like the rest.

I am moving to MTY next month with my fiance (Mexican) and our 2 children. Its a calculated risk, but its all for the good.

Like I have said before, keep your nose clean, don't hangout with or close to the wrong crowd, don't buy/sell drugs, don't act like a privileged American jerk, keep your head down and eyes up....and for God sakes, respect the people. You are not under the "Blanket of Freedom" that Uncle Sam provides anymore.


----------



## sputnik (Jan 10, 2011)

circle110 said:


> First of all, the media exaggerates this quite a bit. I don't spend any time in fear of violence here in Guanajuato. When I travel in Mexico, I do the same here as you in Chicago (where I lived until a year and a half ago) and avoid the known trouble spots and keep my wits about me. When I return to the US, I can't believe the BS that is being feed to the unsuspecting public there via the media. However, there IS indeed violence in many parts of Mexico -- it is not a complete fabrication by any stretch.
> 
> (Political comments snipped)
> 
> ...


Dear Circle110 I noticed that you live in Guanajuato. You gave me great info about banking as we are coming there this summer for 3 weeks to go to school, then in a few years plan to "retire" there. Anyway, I just thought I would ask you if you knew a couple that use to live there. Since they are "gringos" I thought you might know them and if they are still there. When we were there last (2yrs) ago we met them and had lunch, but we lost touch. I thought I could e-mail you privately and mention their names as I did not know if I should openly mention their names here in public......? Thank you so very much....


----------



## circle110 (Jul 20, 2009)

Sure, you can send me a PM if you'd like (just click on my name at the top of any one of my posts and it will offer you that option). 

I must say that I know very few of the gringos here in Guanajuato, most of my friends and acquaintances are Mexican. However, I'm slowing getting to know some of the foreign contingent.


----------



## chicois8 (Aug 8, 2009)

*Simple*

When the Americans and Canadians stop buying drugs the border land cartels will have no one to sell too----supply and demand...........




YaVengo said:


> Any thoughts on when/if the Mx. government will ever get control back from the narcos? How long can this growing violence continue? At least from here (NOB) it sounds like the narcos are in control and the govn't is playing catch-up and bandaids. I would think that if the govn't was serious they would take serious (extreme) measures. It sounds worse than the crime we have here but maybe that's the media. I live near and work in Chicago. I know there is crime but I (knock on wood) have been able to avoid it by knowing where/when to avoid.
> Rich


----------



## circle110 (Jul 20, 2009)

chicois8 said:


> When the Americans and Canadians stop buying drugs the border land cartels will have no one to sell too----supply and demand...........


Agreed...
or if/when the US and Canada legalize said substances.


----------



## ReefHound (Aug 9, 2010)

If that is what you are hoping for, take a deep deep breath...


----------



## TundraGreen (Jul 15, 2010)

ReefHound said:


> If that is what you are hoping for, take a deep deep breath...


Have you been following the medical marijuana laws? It might not be as long as it seemed a few years ago. The problem is that the cartels are now pretty entrenched and into other activities, protection, kidnapping. So, just like the mafia did not disappear when alcohol was legalized after prohibition, the cartels probably won't go away even if drug smuggling became less profitable.


----------



## tepetapan (Sep 30, 2010)

I think Reefhound works for ICE.


----------



## circle110 (Jul 20, 2009)

Well, hoping no. My first post explained my thoughts on the subject but it got heavily edited and no longer represents my point of view.

Let's just say I hold more hope for that possibility than I do that folks will just magically cease to want to purchase substances or that the cartels will get bored making billions of dollars a year off the drug trade.


----------



## ReefHound (Aug 9, 2010)

TundraGreen said:


> Have you been following the medical marijuana laws?


Have you? The California prop got handily defeated and the medical mj laws haven't made a dent in either the street price or the amount imported. If anything the clock is ticking back as people see that the med mj laws haven't delivered on the promise that got them passed and are mostly just being used as a loophole by people to get high.

Anyway, I guess you guys are saying that Mexico is doomed to extreme cartel violence for the next few generations since your "solutions" have no chance of being implemented anytime soon.


----------



## circle110 (Jul 20, 2009)

ReefHound said:


> medical mj laws haven't made a dent in either the street price or the amount imported.


I don't think medical mj laws are a wise idea anyway. It would be more effective to make processed tetrahydrocannabinol allowable as a prescription med for those who need it, much like the opiate morphine, which is also heavily controlled. Making the plant legal in some situations and illegal in others clouds the issue quite a bit.

I wouldn't have expected that those med mj laws would have any impact on importation. That was never - and should never be - their purpose. 
People are getting the med laws confused with legalization, which should be a different issue altogether.




ReefHound said:


> Anyway, I guess you guys are saying that Mexico is doomed to extreme cartel violence for the next few generations since your "solutions" have no chance of being implemented anytime soon.


It's rather looking that way for the time being. Attitudes NOB will surely change once the cartels have entrenched their operations within the US, a process that already appears to have started. Eventually, I think it will reach a decision point - legalize or use force. We'll see what happens. For now, folks NOB can blissfully ignore the situation here in Mexico. 

In the mean time I am eager to hear other possible "solutions".


----------

