# South China Sea



## fmartin_gila (May 15, 2011)

An interesting read as to the South China Sea situation.
http://www.policyforum.net/south-china-seas-judgement-day/

Fred


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## 197649 (Jan 1, 2013)

Maybe this is the first step before going to the international courts. But even then unless the others step up it certainly will be a mute point. I wonder if behind the scenes if PI is talking to the others. They should be. What if the international court rules against China who will enforce it. Will the Asian countries rely on Russia or the U.S. to help. If the U.S. is called upon will our current government even respond?


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## fmartin_gila (May 15, 2011)

The Pentagon is constantly doing "what if" studies, so I would imagine there may be quite a bit of behind the scene positioning or at least some discussion. With all the cutbacks, it's just anybody's wild guess as to what will transpire. Having the US on your side does not have the clout that it used to have so I kind of wonder about quite a bit of it.

Fred


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## 197649 (Jan 1, 2013)

PH fishermen remove Chinese buoys near disputed shoal | mb.com.ph | Philippine News


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## fmartin_gila (May 15, 2011)

c_acton98 said:


> PH fishermen remove Chinese buoys near disputed shoal | mb.com.ph | Philippine News


Even simple things such as this could have totally unplanned consequences under the present state of affairs. All it would take is for some hot-head to go off half-cocked to turn into something major that could have some serious regrets later. This is multiplied by the number of different Countries involved overall.

And just think of it, We will have front row seats ! ! ! LOL


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## JM101 (Jan 6, 2015)

c_acton98 said:


> PH fishermen remove Chinese buoys near disputed shoal | mb.com.ph | Philippine News


Yes, this is exactly the type of incident that could trigger a real big mess.

First a buoy, then a net, then a boat, then a ship.....etc.

Gunna be interesting.

JM101


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## simonsays (Feb 11, 2009)

c_acton98 said:


> PH fishermen remove Chinese buoys near disputed shoal | mb.com.ph | Philippine News


Those buoys look like those used by the hopper dredgers.. a few thousand $ worth and I am sure somebody is looking for it ... unless the Chinese don't watch Philippines news ...  

They are NOT boundary markers.


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## JimnNila143 (Jul 23, 2013)

The thing is, China is so big and powerful with the largest military in the world, per man, if they wanted to, they could walk all over Asia and devastate a lot of Asian nations. Who else but the USA, the UK, and a few other countries would join together and fight them. China could treat N Korea like a red headed step child, step on their neck and tell them to shut up or else. The bottom line here is that everything within the Philippine area of responsibility belongs to the Philippines, not to China, This is where the problem lies when countries have different claims with ocean land and island territory. The Philippines is too weak, militarily, to face China alone, it needs the help from other nations in order to insure these fishing areas are not taken away.


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## fmartin_gila (May 15, 2011)

Ran across another news blurb yesterday afternoon that said that pictures show that the building activity appears to be Military. While I was reading the article, the internet went down here, after the internet came back up I haven't been able to find it again.

Fred


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## JimnNila143 (Jul 23, 2013)

Report: China building 'airstrip capable' island - CNN.com

Why Is China Building Islands in the South China Sea? | The Diplomat

China building massive island big enough for airstrip, report says | Fox News


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## simonsays (Feb 11, 2009)

fmartin_gila said:


> Ran across another news blurb yesterday afternoon that said that pictures show that the building activity appears to be Military. While I was reading the article, the internet went down here, after the internet came back up I haven't been able to find it again.
> 
> Fred


When you build an air strip, how does it get different from a civilian one or military one ? 

Its the media playing to the gallery 

Of course even the air strip in Philippines occupied islands see paf birds Landing ...

As for Philippines being militarily weak, the downfall started with Marcos leaving the country dry having taken out 20 + billion apart from passing all state ventures to his friends, and when he was kicked out, the followers, starting from Cory (who has Chinese blood ... and was proud of it.. ) and the Chinese oligarchs had no interest to beef up the forces, end the internal civil strifes - NPA, MILF, BIFF, ASG, and what nots - and the Chinese oligarchs have managed to influence the policy makers from not spending too much on military and offers China, as, most of the Chinese oligarchs major investments are in China 

And beyond comprehension, China has of late taken direct or indirect control over some of the major infrastructures and such in Philippines, including a major cargo operation, through their known proxies (and that's not an imaginary story ..)

And the way the post Edsa constitution was formed guarantees that a vast portion of national income goes to pork barrel, so why would the senators and congressman stop their non stop flow of billions of peso of free cash with next to no accounting required, by asked to divert it to military spending ?

And while people loudly claim Marcos had a strong air force, in reality, late 1970s the military was in shambles. And the non stop spending of the missus only bled the country more.

I hope the long timers here know even the armed forces were running their own corruption scheme, skimming a lot of money, purportedly to their own private retirement fund, and statistics say nearly every armed force officer knew about it but kept quite about the nearly half skimmed.money, money allocated for purchase and upgrades, because nobody wanted to lose out the common retirement fund 

Rumour has it the illegal retirement fund was never dismantled and even now part of armed forces budget supposedly gets skimmed. Hence the purchase of used Uh1, used armoured cars, used IFVs, or polish helicopters - for the army, while the president flies on brand new Bell 412s.

Anything more I need say ?

In short the past rulers of Philippines have spun a complicated messy web of lies and stuff, and have got no way out of it.

Most smart Filipino knows about it, but dare not talk about it loudly because talking against any powerful man or family always finds a person's life span reduced promptly. 

So nothing's gonna happen, people pretend to be scared of China, and China will pretend to be annoyed but at the same time very benevolent to Philippines and life will go on as normal.


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## Asian Spirit (Mar 1, 2010)

*Chinese Assertiveness In The South China Sea Harbinger Of Things To Come*



simonsays said:


> When you build an air strip, how does it get different from a civilian one or military one ?
> 
> Its the media playing to the gallery
> 
> ...


I think that is part of the situation but it goes much farther and deeper than that. 
Here is a lengthy video that was just aired today from the US Pacific Command.

It's a real eye opener and fodder for speculation on what war planners are finding and thinking..


Jet Lag


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## EuroBob (Feb 23, 2015)

Jet Lag said:


> I think that is part of the situation but it goes much farther and deeper than that.
> Here is a lengthy video that was just aired today from the US Pacific Command.
> 
> It's a real eye opener and fodder for speculation on what war planners are finding and thinking..
> ...


I appreciate the discussion on the link you provided. Below are some excerpts from the video which caught my attention.

US$ 5 trillion in world trade passes thru South China Sea in a year.
US$ 1.2 trillion in US trade passes thru South China Sea in a year.
50% of the world's oil passes thru the South China Sea in a year.
U.S. interests are for Freedom of Navigation.
China’s island building has caused a rapid and extensive loss of living coral, approximately 3000 acres in 18 months.
China has robust Anti-Access Area of Denial systems which are under development and whose development seems to be motivated by issues surrounding South China Sea.
7 small reefs/rocks in Spratly islands occupied (?) by China, most of them submerged(?).
In 1974 China used force to take Paracel islands from Vietnam.
In 1988 China used force against Vietnam to seize a couple of land features (Paracel land features?) from Vietnam.
India and Japan are also interested in Freedom of Navigation in the South China Sea.
In East China Sea, China has placed an Air Defence Identification Zone system in 2014, which the U.S. ignores and continues to fly thru the region.
The U.S. has seven treaties, Rio Treaty, Nato Treaty, and five bilateral treaties of which are with Asia Pacific countries; Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Australia, and the Philippines. 
The Taiwan Relations Act governs the U.S. relationship with Taiwan.
ASEAN is weak and not cohesive, but ASEAN is slightly increasing how vocal it is regarding China.
By 2009-2010 China’s capabilities have increased to a certain point which may have given them enough confidence to decide to push some more on territories.
In 2012 the U.S. did not do much when China took over Scarborough Shoal.


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## jon1 (Mar 18, 2012)

You also forgot to add that India is stepping into the mix. They are now assisting Vietnam in funding their military as they see the "Freedom of Navigation" as a National Interest also. 

So now we have India in the west and Japan in the east with strong economies funding military assistance in this matter. 

You also forgot to mention that even though Japan has no direct treaties for the South China Sea countries, they are actively engaged in the defense of the Freedom of Navigation rights as it is in their interest too.


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## simonsays (Feb 11, 2009)

jon1 said:


> You also forgot to add that India is stepping into the mix. They are now assisting Vietnam in funding their military as they see the "Freedom of Navigation" as a National Interest also..


I think India was negotiating for the lease of Cam Ranh Bay base ....


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## 197649 (Jan 1, 2013)

http://thediplomat.com/2015/07/south-china-sea-satellite-imagery-shows-intensive-chinese-building/


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## 197649 (Jan 1, 2013)

c_acton98 said:


> South China Sea: Satellite Imagery Shows Intensive Chinese Building | The Diplomat


I apologize for not giving The Diplomat their credit and a brief description!

Satellite imagery of Subi Reef in the Spratly Islands taken July 18, 2015 shows intensive preparation of terrain for a likely airstrip. 
Things have been mentioned before but more eyes are starting to wonder and speculate just what is going on there


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## JM101 (Jan 6, 2015)

Looking at that runway and its length, I wonder if the Chinese are building their version of Area 51. 

Maybe they are now holding "ET" captive.

JM101


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