# What's happened to sterling-euro !!!



## keiths (Jul 27, 2009)

Yesterday sterling was on the back foot against both the USD and the EUR. 

In particular the move lower against the euro is what concerns us on this forum  although the drop was not significant in size, the fact that we have now breached key levels could open the door for a further move lower. 

The pound needs to find some resilience quickly or we could see further drops towards 1.11. 

The move lower in the pound was not related to economic data but more to the difference in attitudes between the ECB and the Bank Of England. The ECB yesterday hinted at an exit strategy for stimulus and quantitative easing, whereas the Bank of England could in fact add more to the QE programme before the end of the year. 

This week is going to be important for the pound against the euro as psychologically we are now in a lower trading range.

Fingers crossed folks!

Keith


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## jojo (Sep 20, 2007)

keiths said:


> Yesterday sterling was on the back foot against both the USD and the EUR.
> 
> In particular the move lower against the euro is what concerns us on this forum  although the drop was not significant in size, the fact that we have now breached key levels could open the door for a further move lower.
> 
> ...



Its not so much that the pound is dropping, but the euro is strengthening. Germany and France have announced that they are no longer in recession and thats given the euro a boost. Its high against the US dollar too!

I also think that the UK government like the pound to be lower to encourage exports amongst other things

Jo xx


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## keiths (Jul 27, 2009)

jojo said:


> Its not so much that the pound is dropping, but the euro is strengthening. Germany and France have announced that they are no longer in recession and thats given the euro a boost. Its high against the US dollar too!
> 
> I also think that the UK government like the pound to be lower to encourage exports amongst other things
> 
> Jo xx


There's alot of divided opinion at the moment amongst eurozone economies as to who is recovering the quickest. 

Many feel this is a potentailly explosive situation that could hurt the investment potential of the euro, and if this is correct, the added pressure could benefit sterling in the medium term.

In case you havent noticed I try to keep my cup always half-full!


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## jojo (Sep 20, 2007)

well my prediction on the sterling/euro is that its unpredictable!


Jo xxx


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## keiths (Jul 27, 2009)

jojo said:


> well my prediction on the sterling/euro is that its unpredictable!
> 
> 
> Jo xxx


Spot on! Any idea of the lottery numbers?


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## jojo (Sep 20, 2007)

keiths said:


> Spot on! Any idea of the lottery numbers?



I'm working on it!! But as you can probably tell, I'm not too good at it 

Jo xxx


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## owdoggy (Jul 23, 2008)

With a house purchase on the way I'm going to be changing a sizeable wodge of spondoolicks so you can bet your bottom dollar (pun intended) that the rate will be low when I do. 
Every time I so much as think about buying a euro the rate drops faster than a rat goes up a drainpipe so basically, I think you can blame the whole thing on me



Doggy


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## jojo (Sep 20, 2007)

owdoggy said:


> I think you can blame the whole thing on me
> 
> 
> 
> Doggy


Will do hun!!!!!!!!

Jo xxx


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## XTreme (May 17, 2008)

It was 1.50 when we switched in 2005! 

Now it can drop as low as it likes as I earn in euros and spend in euros! 

And on the odd occasion I buy something on the Net in pounds....I get a hell of a price!


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## Buenosdiaspet (Feb 13, 2009)

yeah i have to move a regular chunk over each month, coming up next week so don't worry folks, the rate always climbs the day after I initiate that transfer!


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## jojo (Sep 20, 2007)

Buenosdiaspet said:


> yeah i have to move a regular chunk over each month, coming up next week so don't worry folks, the rate always climbs the day after I initiate that transfer!



I must have been really lucky, I kinda sneaked up on it and moved a fairly sizable chunk at just the right time a few weeks ago!!! :clap2::clap2::clap2:

Jo xxxx


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## mrypg9 (Apr 26, 2008)

Why the panic? In December there was almost parity.
I think the £ will recover to around the 1.25 level and hover there.
The European Central Bank has yet to come to grips with the weak economies of the PIGS. France and Germany are out of recession, true, but Germany still has mighty problems as it is almost totally dependent on exports -still the world's leading exporter -and other countries need to come out of recession to buy.Spanish banks are offering 3.75% on some investment accounts, peanuts I know compared to five years ago but munificent when compared to the 0.5% of our UK Central Bank.
It ain't over yet, folks


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## jojo (Sep 20, 2007)

mrypg9 said:


> Why the panic? In December there was almost parity.
> I think the £ will recover to around the 1.25 level and hover there.
> The European Central Bank has yet to come to grips with the weak economies of the PIGS. France and Germany are out of recession, true, but Germany still has mighty problems as it is almost totally dependent on exports -still the world's leading exporter -and other countries need to come out of recession to buy.Spanish banks are offering 3.75% on some investment accounts, peanuts I know compared to five years ago but munificent when compared to the 0.5% of our UK Central Bank.
> It ain't over yet, folks


....... not until the fat lady sings!!!! 


Jo xxxx


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## Chica (Mar 23, 2009)

OMG. It's falling even more!!!!!! €1.138 to the £!!!! It better pick up before pension payout


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## crookesey (May 22, 2008)

I forward ordered my Euros 2 weeks ago at 1.1675, the last M&S rate that I noticed was last Friday at 1.0825. Everything pointed to a stronger pound, but it's dropping faster than a whores knickers.

OK Germany and France have come out of recession, but that hardly helps the PIGS economies that are still knee deep in the brown stuff. It appears that it's more of Germany and France setting a value for the Pound, and countries such as Spain just tagging on for the ride. Me thinks that we are in for a rough ride during the next few months.


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## Chica (Mar 23, 2009)

crookesey said:


> I forward ordered my Euros 2 weeks ago at 1.1675, the last M&S rate that I noticed was last Friday at 1.0825. Everything pointed to a stronger pound, but it's dropping faster than a whores knickers.
> 
> OK Germany and France have come out of recession, but that hardly helps the PIGS economies that are still knee deep in the brown stuff. It appears that it's more of Germany and France setting a value for the Pound, and countries such as Spain just tagging on for the ride. Me thinks that we are in for a rough ride during the next few months.


Oh no!!!! Say it's not true!!!:baby:


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## JBODEN (Jul 10, 2009)

crookesey said:


> I forward ordered my Euros 2 weeks ago at 1.1675, the last M&S rate that I noticed was last Friday at 1.0825. Everything pointed to a stronger pound, but it's dropping faster than a whores knickers.
> 
> OK Germany and France have come out of recession, but that hardly helps the PIGS economies that are still knee deep in the brown stuff. It appears that it's more of Germany and France setting a value for the Pound, and countries such as Spain just tagging on for the ride. Me thinks that we are in for a rough ride during the next few months.


France & Germany are still producing a negative GDP so how come they are out of the recession???


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## mrypg9 (Apr 26, 2008)

JBODEN said:


> France & Germany are still producing a negative GDP so how come they are out of the recession???


Do you mean by 'negative GDP' that the growth rate hasn't returned to, say, pre-2007 figures? There's no such thing as 'negative Gross Domestic Product'.
France and Germany have both moved towards very slightly improved output figures over the past quarter. But although it's good news especially for Germany which has seen low or no growth for longer than most Eurozone states it is still only the faintest of green shoots. Germany's economy is 99% dependent on exports and until the rest of the world's economies pick up significantly it will still be on shaky foundations,especially with large economies such as the U.S. and now Japan veering dangerously towards protectionism.
France was far vless exposed to Credit Swap Derivatives and all the other toxic junk which has played a major role in bringing down the U.K. and U.S. economies, likewise Germany, which has always been institutionally- and personally- credit adverse.


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## JBODEN (Jul 10, 2009)

mrypg9 said:


> Do you mean by 'negative GDP' that the growth rate hasn't returned to, say, pre-2007 figures? There's no such thing as 'negative Gross Domestic Product'.
> France and Germany have both moved towards very slightly improved output figures over the past quarter. But although it's good news especially for Germany which has seen low or no growth for longer than most Eurozone states it is still only the faintest of green shoots. Germany's economy is 99% dependent on exports and until the rest of the world's economies pick up significantly it will still be on shaky foundations,especially with large economies such as the U.S. and now Japan veering dangerously towards protectionism.
> France was far vless exposed to Credit Swap Derivatives and all the other toxic junk which has played a major role in bringing down the U.K. and U.S. economies, likewise Germany, which has always been institutionally- and personally- credit adverse.


Measured YOY (year on year) GDP has reduced which means that production has contracted, hence 'negative GDP'.
Re Germany see:
Record fall in GDP sees Germany take over as the ‘sick man of Europe’ - Times Online 

... also... "German gross domestic product (GDP) rose *unexpectedly *by 0.3% (lol!) in the second quarter.

So GDP dropped 3.8% in Q1 2009 and rose 0.3% in Q2 2009and everyone is shouting that the recession is over. My maths tells me that they are still down 3.5% this year (YOY) How much were they down in 2008 vs 2007?


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## mrypg9 (Apr 26, 2008)

JBODEN said:


> Measured YOY (year on year) GDP has reduced which means that production has contracted, hence 'negative GDP'.
> Re Germany see:
> Record fall in GDP sees Germany take over as the ‘sick man of Europe’ - Times Online
> 
> ...


I prefer the term negative growth' but we mean the same thing.
I think part of the reason for the 0.3% growth in German GDP was due to the fact that for the last couple of years the 'Mittelstand' firms were running down stocks and not ordering and now that has come to an end so orders are picking up. But not necessarily exports. 
I agree with you in that I don't think the recession is even half-way over in the U.K. It won't be until banks start lending to business, for one thing. I can't understand why the Government isn't leaning more heavily on whatever the quango set up to oversee our 'natiuonalised ' banks is called - UKFSA or something?
It's the duty of the Government -any Government -to support illiquid banks -not insolvent banks -and our major banks are currently illiquid. But with strings......
Incidentally, the old Co-op Bank seems to have risen above the current turmoil.
Maybe there was something to this 'ethical investment' credo??


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## keiths (Jul 27, 2009)

mrypg9 said:


> I prefer the term negative growth' but we mean the same thing.
> I think part of the reason for the 0.3% growth in German GDP was due to the fact that for the last couple of years the 'Mittelstand' firms were running down stocks and not ordering and now that has come to an end so orders are picking up. But not necessarily exports.
> I agree with you in that I don't think the recession is even half-way over in the U.K. It won't be until banks start lending to business, for one thing. I can't understand why the Government isn't leaning more heavily on whatever the quango set up to oversee our 'natiuonalised ' banks is called - UKFSA or something?
> It's the duty of the Government -any Government -to support illiquid banks -not insolvent banks -and our major banks are currently illiquid. But with strings......
> ...


This morning first thing we were actually advancing against the USD and the EURO; but early negative UK data at 9:30 soon put pay to that.
In other data released the Eurozone came out smelling of roses with German unemployment better than expected and Italian business confidence also improving. We'll see what happens this week with the focus on the ECB meeting to shed more light on the ECB’s plans going forward.


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## JBODEN (Jul 10, 2009)

There is an arguement that German GDP benefited from the 'New for Old' car subsidy deal. This has virtually finished so we will have to wait and see what the Q3 GDP figures show.


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## jojo (Sep 20, 2007)

keiths said:


> This morning first thing we were actually advancing against the USD and the EURO; but early negative UK data at 9:30 soon put pay to that.
> In other data released the Eurozone came out smelling of roses with German unemployment better than expected and Italian business confidence also improving. We'll see what happens this week with the focus on the ECB meeting to shed more light on the ECB’s plans going forward.



I dunno why any of us bother to even try to work out where the pound/euro is heading. Anyone who could predict the market correctly would be a squillionaire and I dont think any of here are!! sadly!  

Even so called experts would be better off gambling on the geegees!


Jo xx


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## mrypg9 (Apr 26, 2008)

JBODEN said:


> There is an arguement that German GDP benefited from the 'New for Old' car subsidy deal. This has virtually finished so we will have to wait and see what the Q3 GDP figures show.


Yes, I'm sure it did but I wonder how many cars bought under the German scrappage scheme were manufactured outside of Germany - Skodas manufactured in the state-of-the-art VW/Audi/Skoda plant in theCzech Republic....Still, it gave money to the dealers/wider economy.
I stopped worrying about the £ when it plunged from 42.5 Czech crowns/£1 to 28 crowns /£!.
I was a millionaire once, though.....but in Czech crowns, alas...


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