# Will The Price Of Property Continue To Fall?



## paul44 (May 19, 2009)

Just wondered what folks nearer to the ground think? do you think the correction has finish or would you think there is a another 10-20% reduction on the cards
buy now or wait that's the big question

Cheers

ps its boiling hot in Ireland wow just woke up it was a dream!!!!!!!!!


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## jojo (Sep 20, 2007)

paul44 said:


> Just wondered what folks nearer to the ground think? do you think the correction has finish or would you think there is a another 10-20% reduction on the cards
> buy now or wait that's the big question
> 
> Cheers
> ...


Inspite of what the estate agents are saying, further falls are predicted!? Altho I tend to think that that some of the more desirable properties out there may have stablised???? Statistics and official predictions are so easily manipulated and corrupted that they're not worth the bother of reading IMO

The only way to know for sure is to look into your crystal ball!!!! ....and be at the ready for when it hits the bottom!!

Jo xxx


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## Suenneil (Feb 17, 2009)

paul44 said:


> Just wondered what folks nearer to the ground think? do you think the correction has finish or would you think there is a another 10-20% reduction on the cards
> buy now or wait that's the big question
> 
> Cheers
> ...


Hi Paul

We may be on the ground but Im not sure if that gives us the "expertise" to predict the final % outcome of property price falls ! 

My individual opinion is that they will still fall - by how much I cant honestly say - but with the oversupply of new housing (unsold by developers and many of whom are no longer in existence!), the continued rise in unemployment here, and the difficulty in obtaining finance / mortgages its a market that has a way to go before it start to improve .... 

One of the problems is that there are still a lot of owners out there advertising properties way above what they are worth or can be sold for, and then others have them realistically priced ... so its hard to get a real true picture of average prices at the moment .... also it will be area dependent. Down here on the Coast in the South prices are lower than I have ever seen them - but even there some areas still appear high!

Sue


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## xabiaxica (Jun 23, 2009)

jojo said:


> Inspite of what the estate agents are saying, further falls are predicted!? Altho I tend to think that that some of the more desirable properties out there may have stablised???? Statistics and official predictions are so easily manipulated and corrupted that they're not worth the bother of reading IMO
> 
> The only way to know for sure is to look into your crystal ball!!!! ....and be at the ready for when it hits the bottom!!
> 
> Jo xxx


estate agents are, of course, saying that they won't fall any further


they want to sell NOW & at today's price!


I would be surprised though, if they didn't continue to fall for a little while longer, at least - not least because nothing much is selling right now


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## jojo (Sep 20, 2007)

xabiachica said:


> estate agents are, of course, saying that they won't fall any further
> 
> 
> they want to sell NOW & at today's price!
> ...


Half the problem is that banks are very reluctant to lend to anyone they consider risky, especially to expats unless they've lived and worked here forever. But who knows???? I've given up trying to predict anything related to this recession, far too many variables!!!! I blame Bill Clinton!!!!!

Jo xx


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## xabiaxica (Jun 23, 2009)

jojo said:


> Half the problem is that banks are very reluctant to lend to anyone they consider risky, especially to expats unless they've lived and worked here forever. But who knows???? I've given up trying to predict anything related to this recession, far too many variables!!!! I blame Bill Clinton!!!!!
> 
> Jo xx


yes, that is part of the problem at the moment


why:rofl:


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## MarkM (Aug 5, 2009)

Some added comments on the posts today.

1) Mortgages. It isn't strictly true that lending is restricted only to those that live and work in Spain. This may well be the view of most Spanish banks but those with a more open mind and, of course, the specialist international banks are totally focused on folks buying here who do not already live or work in Spain. Lending is much tighter though, that is for sure!

2) Prices. I think we are all in agreement that there is still some way to go yet, but that does not mean that now is not a good time to buy if a) the price is right (and probably discounted) and b) you are not buying to 'flip' but for the long term. Yes, agents will tell you now is the time, but generally you just need to be sure that the value (price) is real. many properties are being sold under a degree of stress, so the discount against the real value is there. The trick is to find the property that you want and then be sure that you are getting a deal. Long term, this is not so much of any issue as the market (and values) will come back; it's just a matter of when!


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## Zimtony (Jun 28, 2008)

Paul, 

IMHO iy all depends on what type of property, what your budget is and where you want to be. For instance, there is a huge glut of empty, available 2/3 beds apartments on the Costa del Sol. I have heard of some people (investors with no need for mortgages) buying at very, very low prices direct from the developers/banks. Factor in the huge amount of distress sales/ repos and the available glut gets even higher! There are still going to be deperate people over the next year or 2 and cash is king, so you could clean up right now.
I know someone who has just bought a nice 3 bed townhouse at Alhaurin Golf. Original price was 330 and he got it for 170K.


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## grahunt (Jan 22, 2009)

*Prices?*

IMHO about another 8-10% more to go down before base but loads of available distressed props below that. Then flatlining for a couple of years.
And I am an estate agent! Tell it as it is.



Zimtony said:


> Paul,
> 
> IMHO iy all depends on what type of property, what your budget is and where you want to be. For instance, there is a huge glut of empty, available 2/3 beds apartments on the Costa del Sol. I have heard of some people (investors with no need for mortgages) buying at very, very low prices direct from the developers/banks. Factor in the huge amount of distress sales/ repos and the available glut gets even higher! There are still going to be deperate people over the next year or 2 and cash is king, so you could clean up right now.
> I know someone who has just bought a nice 3 bed townhouse at Alhaurin Golf. Original price was 330 and he got it for 170K.


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## jojo (Sep 20, 2007)

grahunt said:


> And I am an estate agent! Tell it as it is.



You're a brave man to admit that Graham!!! I know, I know, you're not all bad 

Jo xx


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## jojo (Sep 20, 2007)

grahunt said:


> IMHO about another 8-10% more to go down before base but loads of available distressed props below that. Then flatlining for a couple of years.



I've been thinking about this overnight. If everyone keeps saying that prices are gonna drop further and advising folk to wait before they buy, then people will wait before they buy, this will make vendors drop their prices even further, hense, prices will drop. Altho this is a good thing if you're a potential purchaser, its not so good for the vendor, or the economy????? Maybe I should stop this "thinking" mullarky LOL

Jo xxx


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## Suenneil (Feb 17, 2009)

jojo said:


> I've been thinking about this overnight. If everyone keeps saying that prices are gonna drop further and advising folk to wait before they buy, then people will wait before they buy, this will make vendors drop their prices even further, hense, prices will drop. Altho this is a good thing if you're a potential purchaser, its not so good for the vendor, or the economy????? Maybe I should stop this "thinking" mullarky LOL
> 
> Jo xxx


No! its a good point. But also there seems to be an assumption that no one is buying - when actually they are (albeit in smaller numbers!) ... in our apartments for example which were only completed last year there is a mixture of rental tenants (direct from the developer) and owners .... and we are pretty friends with the developer and some of the new owners .... and they are seeing 2 or 3 new buyers each month (there are only 70 odd apartments in total), so 2 or 3 new sales each month aint too bad I dont think at the moment. Also these new buyers are all youngsters ..... ready and wanting to leave the nest ..... so I think there will always be those who will buy whatever - because its the right time for them rather than waiting for prices to continue to fall.

Sue  keep thinking Jo its good for ya!


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## crookesey (May 22, 2008)

I keep up to speed with prices on the Benissa coast and hardly anything is selling. 399,000 euro apartments on at 225,000, 3 bed, 2 bath detached villas with pools on 800m2 plots can be had for under 300,000.

My guess is, as and when the UK property market picks up it will filter through into the Spanish market. Folk want the double whammy of selling high and buying low, human nature I expect.


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## Suenneil (Feb 17, 2009)

crookesey said:


> I keep up to speed with prices on the Benissa coast and hardly anything is selling. 399,000 euro apartments on at 225,000, 3 bed, 2 bath detached villas with pools on 800m2 plots can be had for under 300,000.
> 
> My guess is, as and when the UK property market picks up it will filter through into the Spanish market. Folk want the double whammy of selling high and buying low, human nature I expect.


I know what you are saying Crooksey - but I was referring to Spanish buyers buying in Spain - there are still some of the around.


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## crookesey (May 22, 2008)

Suenneil said:


> I know what you are saying Crooksey - but I was referring to Spanish buyers buying in Spain - there are still some of the around.


You will need more than Spanish buyers to mop up the one million unsold new properties, not to mention the huge amount of re-sales that are just sitting there unloved and unwanted.

You need the property owning world champions back in the market Sue, but my guess is that if and when they come they will be looking for bargains. I remember being shot down in flames when the pound went to parity with the euro. I said then that Spain would find itself in a worse state than that of the UK. We have had to wash our dirty linen in full view of the rest of the world, Spain just pretended that they didn't have any.

Quite strangely, what I have noticed is that building plots have held their value. I have spoken to a guy who's company can supply and build state of the art Eco Friendly houses for as little as 135,000 euros from start to finish in 90 days, complete with pool. But with nicely situated 800m2 plots costing uwards of 200,000 euros he's not selling very many.


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## RichnMich (Aug 5, 2009)

crookesey said:


> I keep up to speed with prices on the Benissa coast and hardly anything is selling. 399,000 euro apartments on at 225,000, 3 bed, 2 bath detached villas with pools on 800m2 plots can be had for under 300,000.
> 
> My guess is, as and when the UK property market picks up it will filter through into the Spanish market. Folk want the double whammy of selling high and buying low, human nature I expect.


Uk house prices are supposedly on the up again now, so things could be on the way to recovery

BBC


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## jojo (Sep 20, 2007)

crookesey said:


> You will need more than Spanish buyers to mop up the one million unsold new properties, not to mention the huge amount of re-sales that are just sitting there unloved and unwanted.
> 
> You need the property owning world champions back in the market Sue, but my guess is that if and when they come they will be looking for bargains. I remember being shot down in flames when the pound went to parity with the euro. I said then that Spain would find itself in a worse state than that of the UK. We have had to wash our dirty linen in full view of the rest of the world, Spain just pretended that they didn't have any.
> 
> Quite strangely, what I have noticed is that building plots have held their value. I have spoken to a guy who's company can supply and build state of the art Eco Friendly houses for as little as 135,000 euros from start to finish in 90 days, complete with pool. But with nicely situated 800m2 plots costing uwards of 200,000 euros he's not selling very many.



This is a generalisation, but I've noticed with Spanish property owners that, both with rental and sales, they would sooner not sell or rent than drop their price. They really dont tend to negotiate or barter much here. Even their shops and car sales, the Spanish dont seem to go in for bargains and special offers as much as the UK

Jo xxx


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## Guest (Aug 8, 2009)

I was talking to a friend of our who just happens to be a bank manager with Caja Murcia. He is saying that the proices are still going to fall. The reason he gives is that there are lots of repossed properties around. Not just from people who could not pay their mortgages but from builders who have gone bust. The banks sell money, they do not want to own property, hence they will sell repossed or properties in default for far less than the market value to clear the debts. Until this glut of property is sold prices will drop. They will also offer favorable mortgage deals on properties they have repossed. 
We have just been asked to quote to furnish and air condition 212 appartments that have been taken over by the bank after the builder went bust. Perhaps I should justify that as we have a pest control company not a furniture company. My wife also sells furniture for a UK importer at very competative prices hence being asked to quote. Also a good friend of ours is a HVAC (heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning) engineer whos is fully corgi registered and trained. Hope this helps


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## Xose (Dec 10, 2008)

BUGS said:


> I was talking to a friend of our who just happens to be a bank manager with Caja Murcia. He is saying that the proices are still going to fall. The reason he gives is that there are lots of repossed properties around. Not just from people who could not pay their mortgages but from builders who have gone bust. The banks sell money, they do not want to own property, hence they will sell repossed or properties in default for far less than the market value to clear the debts. Until this glut of property is sold prices will drop. They will also offer favorable mortgage deals on properties they have repossed.
> We have just been asked to quote to furnish and air condition 212 appartments that have been taken over by the bank after the builder went bust. Perhaps I should justify that as we have a pest control company not a furniture company. My wife also sells furniture for a UK importer at very competative prices hence being asked to quote. Also a good friend of ours is a HVAC (heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning) engineer whos is fully corgi registered and trained. Hope this helps


Hi Chris,
So, this Bank has asked you, to arrange via your UK Corgi registered friend, to have their 200+ appartments fitted with aircon?!

Will your friend cover the M&E guarantees and registrations at Industria - or will it be a "just do it" jobbie?

I have to admit, this from a Bank seems really strange as they have internal audit to contend with. Perhaps I'm being a little simplistic here and your Corgi registered friend is also Homologado in Spain?

Xose


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## Guest (Aug 8, 2009)

Xose said:


> Hi Chris,
> So, this Bank has asked you, to arrange via your UK Corgi registered friend, to have their 200+ appartments fitted with aircon?!
> 
> Will your friend cover the M&E guarantees and registrations at Industria - or will it be a "just do it" jobbie?
> ...


They bank is selling them as an investment oppertunity. They were originally available from the builder for 184K but are now being offered at 114K. They are being sold fully furnished and air conditioned. My only involvement has been to introduce them to the guy we know. The furniture was what we were asked to quote for but then while we were there we were asked if we knew of a good air con company. He will have to cover all M&E and registrations etc. 
I just catch bugs lol


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## grahunt (Jan 22, 2009)

*The intelligent investor*

Lets the bottom dwellers get the last five per cent of the fall while snapping up the bargains while they are there. Lots of people looking for the bargains at the moment and as stated above many of the best bargains are from banks as they want to clear stock and will finance 100% on _their own stock_

I still stick with the reductions i said above as many people are now noticing the foreign buyer coming back. As the pound rises (Assuming the Uk pulls out of recession first) the trickle of people from the Uk will pick up slowly. Spanish buyers can only buy the bank repos (Broad generalisation) because they generally don't have savings to put down. Ma and pa used to help out but are currently in negative equity themselves.

I went to see a couple of really keenly priced places yesterday and expect them to move relatively quickly because they have current mortgages on which can be taken up by the buyers. 

If banks start lending the market will stabilise and the figures of earnings for the banks are standing up quite well, not so the Cajas but just look at how much the Santander made last quarter (4.5 billion)


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