# Incoming typhoon



## KatanaDV20 (Mar 27, 2020)

I see that an angry looking tropical depression is well on its way to turning into a typhoon and its forecast track is right down the middle of the Philippine island chain. They are looking at forecast winds in the region of 130-150km/h.

All of you there, hunker down and be safe..










Himawari satellite:









JTWC


https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html


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## Lunkan (Aug 28, 2020)

Anyone knowing why prediction say that direction when passing Samar, when the normal is turning northwest towards Manila ="The North Typhon Belt".


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## M.C.A. (Feb 24, 2013)

These Typhoons always seem to move more Northwards then their predictions.


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## Gary D (Oct 28, 2013)

Hopefully it will stay on track because our rice has just come into flower.


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## KatanaDV20 (Mar 27, 2020)

Follow Robert Speta on FB*, he is really excellent. Very deep analysis of storm systems. Hes providing constant updates on Rai ("Odette" in the Philippines).

Meteorologist Robert Speta

*_you dont need a FB account to see his weather page_


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## art1946 (Nov 30, 2017)

they don't seem to tell what the width of the storm is there. it shows the cone of path but not how wide it is there. It looks to have slower wind speeds. Less then 94 mph. Hope everyone will be safe. We have had an historic disaster with the tornadoes. some stayed on the ground for over 200 miles and crossed 4 states. Killed a lot of people in it's path. Destruction is unbelievable.

Art


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## art1946 (Nov 30, 2017)

has Rai hit land yet? Hope all will be okay there.

art


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## KatanaDV20 (Mar 27, 2020)

It is now classified as a Super Typhoon by the JTWC. Due to arrive Thursday evening on the Philippines east coast. Stay safe all.

The latest data:

*Forecast track*









*Wind Signal*









*Himawari satellite









Video




*


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## lefties43332 (Oct 21, 2012)

Turned out not to be so bad. Im on a site where filipinos are saying what a joke


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## KatanaDV20 (Mar 27, 2020)

Some pics of the damage, Maasin City:




__ https://www.facebook.com/Westpacwx/posts/5010051682362550



Approaching Palawan and then the forecast track says it will arc northward towards the Chinese south coast. 

Its on record as one of the most powerful to hit the Philippines. On arrival wind gusts were at 270km/h. 

Current position at this time (02:58 UTC):


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## lefties43332 (Oct 21, 2012)

Could have been worse.....but,,all typhoons are bad.


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## fmartin_gila (May 15, 2011)

Not bad at all where I am in Mandurriao, Iloilo, bit of wind & rain, power was out overnite & most of today.

Fred


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## lefties43332 (Oct 21, 2012)

fmartin_gila said:


> Not bad at all where I am in Mandurriao, Iloilo, bit of wind & rain, power was out overnite & most of today.
> 
> Fred


Good to hear you are ok Fred....miss your post.


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## DonAndAbby (Jan 7, 2013)

Mactan and Cebu City got hit hard. We were supposed to go to Mactan on Christmas day. Doubtful now.
This first video is at Tambuli, near JPark, where we were supposed to stay for 2 nights.




This one is at Newtown, where we were supposed to stay for 3 nights.


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## lefties43332 (Oct 21, 2012)

To me thats not that bad but then I experienced yolanda in leyte in 2013 where concrete buildings were knocked down and 6000 dead in our community. Happy it wasnt worse.


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## Gwapo Kano (Dec 17, 2021)

Anybody have any actual information on Dinagat Island? I live by Cagdianao but flew back to US November 5 for some med stuff at the VA.
All communication seems to be down. My wife and family are there. They did get to the evacuation shelter on Wed (Philippine Time) but no word since then. 
I have lived in the Philippines for over 13 years and know how it goes.
Sadly this was a cat 5 typhoon and hit dead on our island.
Any information that is relevant and not bulabula is appreciated


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## Gwapo Kano (Dec 17, 2021)

Those pictures of Cebu ,I guarantee is nothing compared to current situation in Siargao/Dinagat Island area. 
Have to agree with lefties43332 , I was in Surigao when Yolanda hit in 2013 and Pablo in 2012. My house was flooded and the devastation even in Surigao was worse then the clips above by far.
Not trying to down the situation anywhere. Just know what the power and devastation of Mother Nature can be like.
I'm still in the dark of the true impact to Dinagat. No Cellphone or internet yet. Sure power is out. 
Absolutely sick being unable to contact asawa or anyone there.
Thinking of taking a flight to Manila, but will be stuck in quarantine for 5 day before trying to get to Surigao and then Dinagat Island.


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## Gary D (Oct 28, 2013)

Gwapo Kano said:


> Those pictures of Cebu ,I guarantee is nothing compared to current situation in Siargao/Dinagat Island area.
> Have to agree with lefties43332 , I was in Surigao when Yolanda hit in 2013 and Pablo in 2012. My house was flooded and the devastation even in Surigao was worse then the clips above by far.
> Not trying to down the situation anywhere. Just know what the power and devastation of Mother Nature can be like.
> I'm still in the dark of the true impact to Dinagat. No Cellphone or internet yet. Sure power is out.
> ...


There are lots of flight disruption to the islands so may not even be able to get there. I hope everything turns out ok and your problems are only due to the wide scale power outages. Looking at the videos popping up on youtube some places are going to be without power for some time, even weeks.


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## Gwapo Kano (Dec 17, 2021)

Sadly, I have seen the you tube posts.It does look bad , indeed.
A stupid question. with no internet or cellphone service, how did they upload their videos?


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## Hey_Joe (Sep 13, 2016)

Gwapo Kano said:


> Anybody have any actual information on Dinagat Island?
> Any information that is relevant and not bulabula is appreciated


Wife has relatives who live on Gibusong Island (Dinagat Islands). Wife was just in contact with people from Surigao City who rented a boat and are on the way directly to Gibusong Island to assist. Wife said as of now, no one she is in touch with has heard from anyone from Dinagat, Loreto area.

Dinagat Islands 'leveled to the ground' by Odette —Gov. Bag-ao
December 18, 2021 9:27am
Atricle: Dinagat Islands 'leveled to the ground' by Odette —Gov. Bag-ao

Smart deployed emergency communication gear in Dinagat Islands, 
Article: Power, telco services down in 22 provinces


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## DonAndAbby (Jan 7, 2013)

Gwapo Kano said:


> Those pictures of Cebu ,I guarantee is nothing compared to current situation in Siargao/Dinagat Island area.
> Have to agree with lefties43332 , I was in Surigao when Yolanda hit in 2013 and Pablo in 2012. My house was flooded and the devastation even in Surigao was worse then the clips above by far.
> Not trying to down the situation anywhere. Just know what the power and devastation of Mother Nature can be like.
> I'm still in the dark of the true impact to Dinagat. No Cellphone or internet yet. Sure power is out.
> ...


Praying for your family to be safe!


lefties43332 said:


> To me thats not that bad but then I experienced yolanda in leyte in 2013 where concrete buildings were knocked down and 6000 dead in our community. Happy it wasnt worse.


My selfish interest in Mactan is because we were expecting to go there next week. No need to compare typhoons or devastation by area. Everyone in the path is going to have a tough time of it. I'm sure many areas are much, much worse than Mactan.


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## KatanaDV20 (Mar 27, 2020)

fmartin_gila said:


> Not bad at all where I am in Mandurriao, Iloilo, bit of wind & rain, power was out overnite & most of today.
> 
> Fred


Glad to hear you are okay and your home wasn't damaged. Relieved to know it was not too bad there. The girlfriend lives in Pavia, she messaged during the peak, said the wind was roaring outside. I mentally prepared myself for her house to be destroyed but amazingly its in one piece. A neighbors roof got blown off she said and the small shop on the roadside had one wall blown down. 



Gwapo Kano said:


> Anybody have any actual information on Dinagat Island? I live by Cagdianao but flew back to US November 5 for some med stuff at the VA.
> All communication seems to be down. My wife and family are there. They did get to the evacuation shelter on Wed (Philippine Time) but no word since then.
> I have lived in the Philippines for over 13 years and know how it goes.
> Sadly this was a cat 5 typhoon and hit dead on our island.
> Any information that is relevant and not bulabula is appreciated


I really hope you get some info soon. I highly recommend using Facebook, this is one instance when social media can really assist. Just search for posts of your wifes town and also groups that are being set up.


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## Gwapo Kano (Dec 17, 2021)

Daghan Salamat Tanan, Have seen Gov. Bag Ao post on facebook , unfortunately there is no cell service (internet pod) to contact anyone. Finally made contact with friends in Surigao, heavy damage there also..
Communication is key, of course.


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## M.C.A. (Feb 24, 2013)

Gwapo Kano said:


> Anybody have any actual information on Dinagat Island? I live by Cagdianao but flew back to US November 5 for some med stuff at the VA.
> All communication seems to be down. My wife and family are there. They did get to the evacuation shelter on Wed (Philippine Time) but no word since then.
> I have lived in the Philippines for over 13 years and know how it goes.
> Sadly this was a cat 5 typhoon and hit dead on our island.
> Any information that is relevant and not bulabula is appreciated


Here's some news articles from local news agencies 

Dinagat Island calls for help news article

PNA news agency Dingat leveled

GMA link


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## M.C.A. (Feb 24, 2013)

Gwapo Kano said:


> Sadly, I have seen the you tube posts.It does look bad , indeed.
> A stupid question. with no internet or cellphone service, how did they upload their videos?


There could be cell towers standing or repaired and the family would need a SIM card for the Internet provider like Globe, Smart etc.. so more than one SIM card.

But the shelters usually provide some internet service so if your family has a Smart Phone they should be able to contact you soon.


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## Gwapo Kano (Dec 17, 2021)

Thank you for the links. It will be a waiting game right now. . Hopefully some sort of comms will be established. 
My asawa is pretty smart lady, She has multiple phones and sims for globe and smart. If anything is left and she can find , we have extra solar panels , batteries and inverters at the bahay (house) and at mamas who is on the other side of the island. We had. a repeater router with solar panel 60 meters in the dagat. but that's history for sure. We live close to Cagdainao on the west coast ...
I left the Island November 5th to go to the US for some medical checkup at the VA here in Texas. The VA in Manila doesnt have the MRI and CATscan equipment needed. Feeling terrible for leaving now. Should have stayed. It is hard not to know and communicate we her. We usually talk twice a day when im here in the States. After 6 years together, she is the Boss (of course!) and not to see her right now is incredibly hard.


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## Lunkan (Aug 28, 2020)

Gwapo Kano said:


> Thank you for the links. It will be a waiting game right now. . Hopefully some sort of comms will be established.
> My asawa is pretty smart lady, She has multiple phones and sims for globe and smart. If anything is left and she can find , we have extra solar panels , batteries and inverters at the bahay (house) and at mamas who is on the other side of the island. We had. a repeater router with solar panel 60 meters in the dagat. but that's history for sure. We live close to Cagdainao on the west coast ...
> I left the Island November 5th to go to the US for some medical checkup at the VA here in Texas. The VA in Manila doesnt have the MRI and CATscan equipment needed. Feeling terrible for leaving now. Should have stayed. It is hard not to know and communicate we her. We usually talk twice a day when im here in the States. After 6 years together, she is the Boss (of course!) and not to see her right now is incredibly hard.


 That add chance to get coomunication,
but it dont help as long as there arent any mobile posts up with power. (Except if having mobile/internet by SATELITE, which I suppouse no one have when "normal" are available, because satelite cost much more and often less good functioning.)


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## Gwapo Kano (Dec 17, 2021)

Sat phones are great to have if you have the money. Had an iridium phone some years ago in a different life. Expensive as heck (cheaper now) . But considering both Matugas in Siargao and Kaka Bag Ao in Dinagat had to have someone fly one in to them. they are still a rarity.
I have decided to fly out in a couple days from Texas if I ever get off of hold on PAL's customer line. Might just buy on line but have couple good sized credits that would pay for the ticket. Just dont have the big bucks anymore being retired. Hour and 20 minutes so far.....Worst customer service ... Really prefer JAL or Korea Air. great service and friendly attitude, but like i said , having some credits i need to use.... tick tock....hour and 30 minutes grrrrr.


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## Gary D (Oct 28, 2013)

Have you managed to sort your visa in time.


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## Gwapo Kano (Dec 17, 2021)

I have a SRRV visa. , it works very well for me. If you had been in the US military it is only a $1500 deposit. And some application fee, etc. A great deal because you dont deal with BI at all, no ACR card either. Only a pre-departure and arrival letter that is emailed to you. no problem at all , now
Got booked on JAL flying out DFW Monday night. Then 5 days in Manila.
Wish me luck
Prayers always appreciated


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## fmartin_gila (May 15, 2011)

KatanaDV20 said:


> Glad to hear you are okay and your home wasn't damaged. Relieved to know it was not too bad there. The girlfriend lives in Pavia, she messaged during the peak, said the wind was roaring outside. I mentally prepared myself for her house to be destroyed but amazingly its in one piece. A neighbors roof got blown off she said and the small shop on the roadside had one wall blown down.


Couple places nearby lost their roofs too, I spose kinda depends on the construction of the building.

Fred


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## DonAndAbby (Jan 7, 2013)

fmartin_gila said:


> Couple places nearby lost their roofs too, I spose kinda depends on the construction of the building.
> 
> Fred


I don't know what the building codes are, but nobody would follow them anyway. After Andrew hit Florida in 19??, they changed the codes so that all roofs have to be tied down to the walls.

Here is a blogger whose house was wrecked. In the video, you can see that the roof construction was inadequate. If you look at her older videos, it was a nice house, but the roof construction will never hold up to a strong typhoon.


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## fmartin_gila (May 15, 2011)

DonAndAbby said:


> I don't know what the building codes are, but nobody would follow them anyway. After Andrew hit Florida in 19??, they changed the codes so that all roofs have to be tied down to the walls.
> 
> 
> Here is a blogger whose house was wrecked. In the video, you can see that the roof construction was inadequate. If you look at her older videos, it was a nice house, but the roof construction will never hold up to a strong typhoon.


I prefer to "pay it upfront" rather than over & over. At my house, all the vertical rebars from each pilar is wrapped completely around the metal roof trusses & purlins(no wood) and welded solidly. My roofing is interlocked flat panels rather than those corregated sheets. Cost more initially, but will not have to be done again. Did the same type construction on the carport and there is no damage.

Fred


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## art1946 (Nov 30, 2017)

Don and Abby

I am a class "C" residential contractor in the state of Florida. I been building since 1984. Maybe in some counties in Florida they never required truss tie downs back then, It has always been required in Seminole, Penellas and Polk counties to have truss straps on block and wood framed walls. block walls had a wood plate on top and we had to have trusses strapped to the wood plate. Simpson is the # 1 brand strap in Florida.

Andrew made landfall in 1992 at a category 5 hurricane. Had sustained winds at 165 MPH. this storm was one of the worst to hit Florida. With gust at 200 mph it didn't make any difference how the trusses were anchored to the wood frame homes. this storm blew the complete house down. the codes were changed do the the windows and door installations. I am not sure but i believe on the coast line all trusses had to be strapped to the top plates and on the block and wood frame walls back then any ways. What happened was the windows and doors failed under the pressure of the wind. then it was a hurricane alley going through the house. the codes changed and the windows and doors had to be hurricane rated on the coast line.

art


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## Gary D (Oct 28, 2013)

I guess you could save a lot of time and expense by writing your name and address on the underside of each sheet. Most of the yero around here they roll up to bring home on the tricycle. Wouldn't matter how strong the roof the nails would tear through.


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## DonAndAbby (Jan 7, 2013)

art1946 said:


> I been building since 1984.


I hope you finish soon! 

Yes, I don't think they built any more wood frame residential in that area after Andrew. I remember seeing the aerial photos of Homestead (I think?) and it looked like piles of matchsticks!

My former house in West Broward was built in 99 and I bought in in 03. At that time, all the new houses were concrete block. I think builders also had to include hurricane shutters. I remember my realtor telling me and I had the inspector check a few things. Doors, windows, (shutters), trusses, etc.

The first year I lived there, three good sized storms came through, and I thought, why the heck did I move here! (It was a transfer for work).

This is Wilma right when the eye came through. I had a sheltered entrance door (another safety feature, so I was able to peek out for a quick video. I had a few broken roof tiles and my little tree went sideways.









New video by Don Leathers







photos.app.goo.gl


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## Gwapo Kano (Dec 17, 2021)

Just got in contact with my asawa. They are flying out to the mainland by helicopter. total destruction. This is what is left of our concrete bahay with concrete roof also. lost absolutely everything. Even cabinets were ripped off of the walls, the refrigerator, freeezer .....everything By the Grace of God my asawa and family are alright. Except almost died when evacuation center started to collapse around them. All we have left in the world there is our old car and two motorcycles she moved. ...
B


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## DonAndAbby (Jan 7, 2013)

@Gwapo Kano , great to hear that they are safe! Sorry for your material losses!


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## art1946 (Nov 30, 2017)

DonAndAbby said:


> I hope you finish soon!
> 
> Yes, I don't think they built any more wood frame residential in that area after Andrew. I remember seeing the aerial photos of Homestead (I think?) and it looked like piles of matchsticks!
> 
> ...


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## art1946 (Nov 30, 2017)

donandabby

You are right about the hurricane shutters on the coastline. If the homeowner had proof that they had hurricane rated windows and doors they did not need the shutters. Most of the homes on the coast did not have hurricanes windows when the house was built. The only way they would have hurricane windows if they upgraded them while living there. I installed a lot of hurricane shutters through the years here.

I don't build anymore. I only do small jobs and service work.

art


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## KatanaDV20 (Mar 27, 2020)

@Gwapo Kano relived to hear your family are well. 

Sorry to hear about your home. Even the concrete roof was taken off? Scary, the power of these typhoons.


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## Lunkan (Aug 28, 2020)

After Yolanda a foreign construction company offered to build a lot of small dome houses at one of the hard hited places, but I believe they gave up because of problem to get coinstruction permits!
As they built, the houses can stand both hurricanes and earthquakes. 

((Probably not by I dont like the problem to furnish houses with such rounded and bent walls, but I have thought some about building a 2 store 2 x 100 sqmeter such plus a big balcony/carport connected.))


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## KatanaDV20 (Mar 27, 2020)

Lunkan said:


> After Yolanda a foreign construction company offered to build a lot of small dome houses


Interesting. I guess in a way it comes down to aerodynamics. Flat faced homes present this large flat area to the oncoming winds. A rounded one will withstand such forces better while allowing the wind to flow around them. Kind of like the bulbous bow on the big freighter ships.


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## Lunkan (Aug 28, 2020)

KatanaDV20 said:


> Interesting. I guess in a way it comes down to aerodynamics. Flat faced homes present this large flat area to the oncoming winds. A rounded one will withstand such forces better while allowing the wind to flow around them.


 And the roof cant blow off such dome houses by whole house is one same concreete unit as a half ball.


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## art1946 (Nov 30, 2017)

What most people don't realize is the need for strong windows and doors. I am a contractor in the USA and most houses will tear a part if the windows and doors fail. It is normal for the air going through the house to rise against the ceiling and roof. If the pressure is to great the roof trusses will fail. This will tear a house a part. Even here with concrete houses the failure of windows will lead to the destruction of the roof.

art


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## Lunkan (Aug 28, 2020)

These have producer from Inda, but there are more similar.


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## art1946 (Nov 30, 2017)

I wonder what they look like inside?

art


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## Zep (Jun 8, 2017)

art1946 said:


> I wonder what they look like inside?
> 
> art


Nightmare to furnish as your furniture is square, Also the floor around the edges has no use as the ceiling height is nonexistent.


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## DonAndAbby (Jan 7, 2013)

art1946 said:


> If the homeowner had proof that they had hurricane rated windows and doors they did not need the shutters. Most of the homes on the coast did not have hurricanes windows when the house was built. The only way they would have hurricane windows if they upgraded them while living there. I installed a lot of hurricane shutters through the years here.


My dream was to get the electric shutters installed but I moved after 3 years. Those are good for the zombie apocalypse too. That first year I got the manual corrugated steel plate shutter install down to a science! I think I had 14 windows to cover and got it down to less than 3 hours. Or 2 hours? Long time ago!


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## M.C.A. (Feb 24, 2013)

When I was stationed on Guam our Military housing was second to none, we had concrete roofs, typhoon shutters and I went through typhoon Omar, which was a super typhoon, and the eye passed right on top of us, the wind went to zero and the sun came out and then after that the eye was moving on and the wind changed direction, we were without power for one month and power rationing for 6 months, it was HELL!

There are plans on the internet that show how to build these typhoon-proof houses.


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## Gwapo Kano (Dec 17, 2021)

KatanaDV20 said:


> @Gwapo Kano relived to hear your family are well.
> 
> Sorry to hear about your home. Even the concrete roof was taken off? Scary, the power of these typhoons.


Now here in Manila with 5 day quarantine. Typical long flight. Took JAL since calling PAL to use credits and rebooking with them was impossible..JAL and Korean Airlines I think are the best to fly with.

Regarding the roof. It is still in one piece.As the whole house is hollow block and rebar with cement poured in the cavities. The front of the house facing the dagat (ocean) is broken as is an interior wall. Everything inside was washed out to sea or buried in the sands.
The reality of the living in the provinces of the Philippines is construction materials,methods and quality of workmanship is always a challenge. It is always wonderful to have the foresight and MONEY to be able to do some of the survivalbilityconstruction methods Being on a facing exposure to the direct impact of 250km/hr winds and tidal flow exposes you to the fullfury and force of Mother Natures.
You have to realize that the ocean coming into your house with 3-7 meter tidal flows is like a truck slamming into your house at great velocity. Esoteric discussion is fine and good. Reality and Mother Nature are harsh mistresses.
Hurricane shutters of just boarding up ALL openings is great if you have the time and material. No Home Depot on the corner out here. mostly mom and pop supply chain. If the wind or water finds an opening, you will be screwed to a variable degree. You might noticealso that the water and waves got under the veranda cement and twisted it up.
We do have a seawall built almost 3 meters deep and about 3 meters front to back. all large bolders ,cement and ,rebar. That is what really saved the shell of the house from totally being lifted up and destroyed. you have to understand that you are building on essentially sand . We also have an underground water tank (10,000 liters) inside the house that essentially goes down to the ground rock there.
Since I haven't been there yet and cant get there until day after Christmas ,I cant really say the true extent of the structural damage. 
I just thank God or the powers that be, My asawa and family are safe and OK now. 
They were picked up on the island and dropped off in Surigao city, then had to take trike to Butuan (about 100km ) to get money i sent and food.
The situation is still very dire.


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