# will australia stop permanent migration ?



## nani0517 (Feb 19, 2018)

Few senators are Proposing to stop permanent migration to Australia . I have been watching news for the past few weeks


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## nani0517 (Feb 19, 2018)

any one heard such news ?


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## mjke1337 (Aug 26, 2017)

Never. Skilled migration is the key for many 1st world nations which see a negative population trend. This helps the nation with positive economy and negative inflation. Only downside is that the number of places may decrease drastically. So, only the best of the best can migrate. Which I think is what is in the interest of the host nations. They want to balance the rising population and standard of living.


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## nani0517 (Feb 19, 2018)

I thought the same  - but i Read this from a blog 

http://migrate2melbourne.com/australia-cant-take-any-more-migrants-jim-molan/


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## Beldyev (Aug 23, 2015)

They will. Duck and cover.


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## nani0517 (Feb 19, 2018)

od1n said:


> They will. Duck and cover.


sure


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## Beldyev (Aug 23, 2015)

nani0517 said:


> sure


Not joking. It is expected that starting July 2018 they will cease PR in favour of 2 year long provisional visas. And only after that PR is an option.


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## nani0517 (Feb 19, 2018)

od1n said:


> Not joking. It is expected that starting July 2018 they will cease PR in favour of 2 year long provisional visas. And only after that PR is an option.


I heard about it too .but is it possible without passing the bill in parliament


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## Beldyev (Aug 23, 2015)

Neither I could recall anything about dropping 457 and introduction of TSS, but it will happen next month.


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## nani0517 (Feb 19, 2018)

nani0517 said:


> I thought the same  - but i Read this from a blog
> 
> Australia can't take any more migrants - Jim Molan - Migrate2Melbourne


so this news is not fake


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## Beldyev (Aug 23, 2015)

The right-hand rule here is - if it sounds bad enough, it will happen shortly.


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## nani0517 (Feb 19, 2018)

od1n said:


> The right-hand rule here is - if it sounds bad enough, it will happen shortly.


ok bro - lets prepare for the worse


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## nani0517 (Feb 19, 2018)

But I read Even tony abbott expressed the same view on Australian day


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## nani0517 (Feb 19, 2018)

mjke1337 said:


> Never. Skilled migration is the key for many 1st world nations which see a negative population trend. This helps the nation with positive economy and negative inflation. Only downside is that the number of places may decrease drastically. So, only the best of the best can migrate. Which I think is what is in the interest of the host nations. They want to balance the rising population and standard of living.


But it looks like Australia can not handle too much population . this is the main concern raised by the senators


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## JG (Mar 22, 2017)

nani0517 said:


> so this news is not fake


This is not fake but it is just an opinion from a retired person and it is never going to happen.
ofcourse the number will reduce and the best of best will go through the process and find the gold mine.


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## MirandaLi (Jan 7, 2018)

Putting the numbers back into the immigration debate | Inside Story

Read this, he is a senator in place.

I visited Tony Abbot's FB today, he is saying to reduce the immigrants to 110,000. In the comment, I would say opposition and supporters are half-half. 
The supporters are saying the current gov is not really cutting the immigration as they claimed. I think it is quite reasonable. As a gov, they need the immigrants to fuel the economy, pay more tax, consume goods, surprising aging and inflation. 
They would love to solve the over populated problem, but they cannot give up on their cash cows too. So the best choice is just to say but not to do, no matter it's Liberal or Labour.


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## nani0517 (Feb 19, 2018)

MirandaLi said:


> Putting the numbers back into the immigration debate | Inside Story
> 
> Read this, he is a senator in place.
> 
> ...


Truly said - immigration is always a political agenda


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## nani0517 (Feb 19, 2018)

MirandaLi said:


> Putting the numbers back into the immigration debate | Inside Story
> 
> Read this, he is a senator in place.
> 
> ...


Here is the latest from tony abbott

Immigration cut will improve quality of life - Tony Abbott - Migrate2Melbourne


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## yuwee92 (Nov 29, 2017)

Hi guys,

I have lodged my application for 189 since September 2017 and updated to 70 points in November. My nominated occupation is chemical engineering ANZCO 233111. Looking at the current trend where they invite 75 pointers and above, Will I expect an invitation soon in a March or April ?


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## yuwee92 (Nov 29, 2017)

yuwee92 said:


> Hi guys,
> 
> I have lodged my application for 189 since September 2017 and updated to 70 points in November. My nominated occupation is chemical engineering ANZCO 233111. Looking at the current trend where they invite 75 pointers and above, Will I expect an invitation soon in a March or April ?


sorry posted in the wrong topic


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## MirandaLi (Jan 7, 2018)

nani0517 said:


> Here is the latest from tony abbott
> 
> Immigration cut will improve quality of life - Tony Abbott - Migrate2Melbourne


Tony Abbott posted 2 more FB this morning to clarify his point. He said he has no problem with immigrants, but just the rate of the immigrants needs to slow down.
It's all about the votes, nothing more.

But the bad news for us is, next FY's trend is going to be really tough! 300 per round is going to be the new norm, refugees will be banned completely. They might tighten 190 as well as 186/188/TSS. Maybe after 2-5 years, the economy will start suffering, and the immigration will reopen. 

Well the education industry is going to be the bleeding one first, but I guess the gov is willing to sacrifice a little to win the election.


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## kaju (Oct 31, 2011)

MirandaLi said:


> Tony Abbott posted 2 more FB this morning to clarify his point. He said he has no problem with immigrants, but just the rate of the immigrants needs to slow down.
> It's all about the votes, nothing more.
> 
> But the bad news for us is, next FY's trend is going to be really tough! 300 per round is going to be the new norm, refugees will be banned completely. They might tighten 190 as well as 186/188/TSS. Maybe after 2-5 years, the economy will start suffering, and the immigration will reopen.
> ...


The very last thing the Government will ever do is ban refugees and the refugee intake, while very generous by international standards, is a very low proportion of the numbers of people coming to Australia. 

There has been no talk by anyone of banning refugees, and Australia has international legal obligations in that regard anyway.


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## Abubakr (May 10, 2016)

I don't think there will be a total stoppage for the immigration, i just read that they will change the rules to make the immigrants apply for provisional temporary visa first, and after staying in Australia for specific time, the immigrant could apply for the PR.


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## MirandaLi (Jan 7, 2018)

kaju said:


> The very last thing the Government will ever do is ban refugees and the refugee intake, while very generous by international standards, is a very low proportion of the numbers of people coming to Australia.
> 
> There has been no talk by anyone of banning refugees, and Australia has international legal obligations in that regard anyway.


The thing is, if they have to implement the 110,000, they don't have any choices but to ban refugees. They can't let go the education industry and raise economic crisis immediately by cut international students. Skilled immigration is already at historical low level (with 300 per round), no much space for that. They will also need to ban the investors (180). And reduce the working visas to a new low level which will squeeze out many businesses. 

Some senator from financial dept suggests this schema is going to cost 5 billions per year and lasts for 4-5 years.


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## mutapha (May 21, 2017)

I totally agree with the idea that immigration rate will be slowed down (significantly). It may be very disadvantageous for all migrants like us, but it is the only tactics Australia is doing now.

This could hurt the economy as well as education system of Australia, but in the short run (2-3 years) the impacts would be minimized. Because there is a response time for economy and international students and their parents reacting to this.

Best wish for those going to have the last tickets in this FY. I think that next FY the invitation will be capped at 500-1000 per month for 189.


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## Beldyev (Aug 23, 2015)

Why everyone is so bloody sure that cutting down immigration will destroy the economy? What is your source of information?


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## yousufkhan (Jul 11, 2016)

*On the topic...*

I am not an expert but my input is that the whole goal of skilled immigration is to meet the lack of qualified and skill resource otherwise not available in the country. Australia or any other country has to consider this factor and they are not giving immigration to us on humanitarian grounds(nor ever expats are empathetic to them). So as long as Australia(or any immigration providing country) needs human skilled personnel they will keep giving immigration and once they are done, they put embargo. And what some politicians are doing in parliament are just for the sake of politics and nothing else.


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## kaju (Oct 31, 2011)

MirandaLi said:


> The thing is, if they have to implement the 110,000, they don't have any choices but to ban refugees. They can't let go the education industry and raise economic crisis immediately by cut international students. Skilled immigration is already at historical low level (with 300 per round), no much space for that. They will also need to ban the investors (180). And reduce the working visas to a new low level which will squeeze out many businesses.
> 
> Some senator from financial dept suggests this schema is going to cost 5 billions per year and lasts for 4-5 years.


No, there are generally 10-12,000 refugee places filled a year in Australia - it's been higher recently due to additional places for Syrian refugees, but this was only applicable for a single year. This is the "Humanitarian Program" which is entirely separate from the general "Migration Program". There has been no suggestion - by anyone - that these numbers will be substantially changed. Nobody has suggested any change to the Humanitarian Program at all. 

The Migration Program is set for this year at 186,515 places, with 128,550 of those for skilled migration, and 57,400 for family migration. There are 3,485 child places outside the Migration Program, so (incorrectly) adding this to the Migration Program gives the 190,000 places that Tony Abbot uses.

It's wrong to assume that the current 300 places per round means a drop in migration right now, or that migration is at historically low levels - it's not. The same numbers of people will get visas this financial year as last financial year - in the case of skilled migrants, 128,550. This is not changeable, it is already law. So the low level of invitations right now does not reflect what numbers of visas will be granted this financial year.

Similarly with Investor Visas - not many of these are granted each year anyway, so I doubt they will be touched. 

Next financial year, yes, that may be different. Then again, the Government holds the slimmest of majorities in the House of Representatives, and any Bill to change the Migration Program would have to pass in the Senate too, of course. 

But nobody, not even Tony Abbott, is suggesting that the Migration Program should be cut by 110,000 - he suggested a cut of 80,000 from the Migration Program (NOT any from the Humanitarian Program), which would come from the skilled intake, and his views do not necessarily even reflect those of the Government! 

The Treasurer (with more authority as a senior Cabinet Minister) sees it differently:
Treasurer Scott Morrison rubbishes Tony Abbott's call for immigration cut

There's a lot of discussion so we won't know the answer for some time yet. If there is a cut, I suspect it will be much less than Tony Abbott's suggestion.


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## MirandaLi (Jan 7, 2018)

kaju said:


> No, there are generally 10-12,000 refugee places filled a year in Australia - it's been higher recently due to additional places for Syrian refugees, but this was only applicable for a single year. This is the "Humanitarian Program" which is entirely separate from the general "Migration Program". There has been no suggestion - by anyone - that these numbers will be substantially changed. Nobody has suggested any change to the Humanitarian Program at all.
> 
> The Migration Program is set for this year at 186,515 places, with 128,550 of those for skilled migration, and 57,400 for family migration. There are 3,485 child places outside the Migration Program, so (incorrectly) adding this to the Migration Program gives the 190,000 places that Tony Abbot uses.
> 
> ...


That article is telling the truth! It uses a lot of data to explain the problem. Tony Abbott looks like a clown just to entertain his voters compared to this.

Yes, you are right, even with 300 per round, the skilled immigrants are not getting any lower. We still have NZ stream, working visas etc.

I am just saying, if in the near future, they cut the immigration cap to 110,000, then we might still got 300 for 189. I don't think they are going to make it smaller, it's already tiny after all.


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## MirandaLi (Jan 7, 2018)

kaju said:


> No, there are generally 10-12,000 refugee places filled a year in Australia - it's been higher recently due to additional places for Syrian refugees, but this was only applicable for a single year. This is the "Humanitarian Program" which is entirely separate from the general "Migration Program". There has been no suggestion - by anyone - that these numbers will be substantially changed. Nobody has suggested any change to the Humanitarian Program at all.
> 
> The Migration Program is set for this year at 186,515 places, with 128,550 of those for skilled migration, and 57,400 for family migration. There are 3,485 child places outside the Migration Program, so (incorrectly) adding this to the Migration Program gives the 190,000 places that Tony Abbot uses.
> 
> ...


I see how Tony Abbott respond to Treasurer's talk, he simply says: "he is wrong", nothing more.

This proves a lot, he is unable to give any statistical evidence to defend his view. I do see many racist shouting in the comment to shut down immigration like tomorrow.


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## nani0517 (Feb 19, 2018)

mutapha said:


> I totally agree with the idea that immigration rate will be slowed down (significantly). It may be very disadvantageous for all migrants like us, but it is the only tactics Australia is doing now.
> 
> This could hurt the economy as well as education system of Australia, but in the short run (2-3 years) the impacts would be minimized. Because there is a response time for economy and international students and their parents reacting to this.
> 
> Best wish for those going to have the last tickets in this FY. I think that next FY the invitation will be capped at 500-1000 per month for 189.


Truly said - they are going to audit taxes of all visa holders including students and make provisional PR mandatory before applying for a PR

Australian Tax Office will audit overseas visa holders including Students - Migrate2Melbourne


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## jayptl (Dec 13, 2012)

yes probably provisonal PR given before actuall PR, and 8 yr waiting period before applying citizenship...soon apply..


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## nani0517 (Feb 19, 2018)

jayptl said:


> yes probably provisonal PR given before actuall PR, and 8 yr waiting period before applying citizenship...soon apply..


8 years waiting period for citizenship - I think this bill failed in the senate


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## Beldyev (Aug 23, 2015)

nani0517 said:


> 8 years waiting period for citizenship - I think this bill failed in the senate


Someone will try to do it again in some way, no doubt.


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## MirandaLi (Jan 7, 2018)

Just saw Tony Abbott's post this morning, he said he decided to "put the figures back". OMG, does this guy has any credit? So he is supporting to maintain the immigration cap now? Over night? so ridiculous!


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## Abubakr (May 10, 2016)

jayptl said:


> yes probably provisonal PR given before actuall PR, and 8 yr waiting period before applying citizenship...soon apply..


Guys please, from where did you get this 8 years waiting period, nobody mentioned it except Pauline Hanson and everybody knows she isn't that much popular in the parliament to make this change.

They wanted to make an English test and a waiting period of 4 years with PR instead of only 1 year with PR; however, it was refused in the parliament and now you are saying they will make it 8 ?

it will not happen because most of the people there believe that making the people stay in Australia for a long time without citizenship will cause segregation due to having lots of Non Australians there


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## Abubakr (May 10, 2016)

kaju said:


> No, there are generally 10-12,000 refugee places filled a year in Australia - it's been higher recently due to additional places for Syrian refugees, but this was only applicable for a single year. This is the "Humanitarian Program" which is entirely separate from the general "Migration Program". There has been no suggestion - by anyone - that these numbers will be substantially changed. Nobody has suggested any change to the Humanitarian Program at all.
> 
> The Migration Program is set for this year at 186,515 places, with 128,550 of those for skilled migration, and 57,400 for family migration. There are 3,485 child places outside the Migration Program, so (incorrectly) adding this to the Migration Program gives the 190,000 places that Tony Abbot uses.
> 
> ...


there is something i cant understand, how could they maintain the same number of visa issued same as last year with this low invitations since the beginning of the financial year ?? how would they issue visas without people applying ?


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## Peanutbutter (Jan 19, 2018)

Abubakr said:


> there is something i cant understand, how could they maintain the same number of visa issued same as last year with this low invitations since the beginning of the financial year ?? how would they issue visas without people applying ?


By clean all the backlogs(not EOIs but the ones who are waiting for visa grant).


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## Peanutbutter (Jan 19, 2018)

kaju said:


> No, there are generally 10-12,000 refugee places filled a year in Australia - it's been higher recently due to additional places for Syrian refugees, but this was only applicable for a single year. This is the "Humanitarian Program" which is entirely separate from the general "Migration Program". There has been no suggestion - by anyone - that these numbers will be substantially changed. Nobody has suggested any change to the Humanitarian Program at all.
> 
> The Migration Program is set for this year at 186,515 places, with 128,550 of those for skilled migration, and 57,400 for family migration. There are 3,485 child places outside the Migration Program, so (incorrectly) adding this to the Migration Program gives the 190,000 places that Tony Abbot uses.
> 
> ...


Very ture! Just read this comment above if you still confuse.


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## nani0517 (Feb 19, 2018)

Beldyev said:


> Someone will try to do it again in some way, no doubt.


truly said


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## Kannan.Balasubramanian (Jul 12, 2016)

I don’t think they will stop, but again my friend who migrated in 2016 says that he can see more Indians this year compared to last year. He also witnessed an increase in home rentals.

From the current pace of invites I guess they should just change the 189 eligibility criteria from 60 to 70 so that people will not get duped by agents or have false expectations.

With all these he says that I still can hope to get invited with my 65 points within next financial year.


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## nani0517 (Feb 19, 2018)

Kannan.Balasubramanian said:


> I don’t think they will stop, but again my friend who migrated in 2016 says that he can see more Indians this year compared to last year. He also witnessed an increase in home rentals.
> 
> From the current pace of invites I guess they should just change the 189 eligibility criteria from 60 to 70 so that people will not get duped by agents or have false expectations.
> 
> With all these he says that I still can hope to get invited with my 65 points within next financial year.


yea hopefully - lets see


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## Beldyev (Aug 23, 2015)

Abubakr said:


> it will not happen because most of the people there believe that making the people stay in Australia for a long time without citizenship will cause segregation due to having lots of Non Australians there


Is it a joke? Segregation by passport in a country based on immigration? 

Also, 4 years is really not that much. In many developed countries, it is more than 6 years.


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