# escalation of tensions with Turkey over hydrocarbon rights



## MartynKSA (Aug 7, 2011)

Hi Everone,

it's often said that the watcher sees most of the game, but having only very recently paid any attention to the unresolved issues of Cyprus, I'm having difficulty in cutting ghrough all the rhetoric. I wonder what the views are of you residents as to where this is all going? 

I'm relying on on-line news reports, but it appears that the EU are conspicuous by their silence over this. I realise Turkey are looking for EU membership (or are they still?), but hasn't there been a threat of military action against an EU state by Turkey over the legitimate hydrocarbon exploration within their legitamate EEZ by Cyprus, which is also recognised by the rest of the world? Shouldn't the EU be standing very visibly behind a legitimate EU state in all this? Can't imagine that if Russia threatened miliatry action against Germany over a similair issue there would be so much deafening silence!

Or am I just being naive?


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## MartynKSA (Aug 7, 2011)

This just popped up on my news feed:

(Reuters) - Cyprus said on Thursday it was willing to share the benefits of any gas find with Turkish Cypriots before reaching a peace deal on the ethnically split island, in an apparent attempt to calm tensions with Turkey over Mediterranean energy reserves

Cyprus promises to share gas proceeds with north | Reuters


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## kimonas (Jul 19, 2008)

MartynKSA said:


> This just popped up on my news feed:
> 
> (Reuters) - Cyprus said on Thursday it was willing to share the benefits of any gas find with Turkish Cypriots before reaching a peace deal on the ethnically split island, in an apparent attempt to calm tensions with Turkey over Mediterranean energy reserves
> 
> Cyprus promises to share gas proceeds with north | Reuters


As far as I understand it, the RoC government have never denied that benefits of the hydrocarbon finds in the Cypriot EEZ would benefit the citizens of the whole island. Nor have the Turks threatened military intervention - they have made it known that they are upset that the issue could potentially upset the ongoing settlement negotiations, yesterday they signed a territorial waters agreement with the TRNC (recognised only by Turkey) and have said that they will if necessary send military protection to any exploration attempts in the northern waters. They also dispute the EEZ claims of the RoC (which they do not recognise as the legitimate government of the island). I suspect both sides are trying to make political capital from the whole situation and tensions are likely to increase. The projected amounts of hydrocarbons available are actually very modest and I doubt this situation will do anything to recsue the Cyprus issue either economically or politically.


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## MartynKSA (Aug 7, 2011)

Hi Kimonas,

Thanks for this. 

I am looking to retire to Cyprus in the immediate future, so I'm trying to fully understand this problem. It would be naive of me to look upon Cyprus as some kind of Shangrila if it's only going to end up as another theatre of strife.

I don't want to re-ignite any debate about the rights or wrongs of the current problems between RoC & TRNC, but I do question how an Internationally recognised state (& member of the EU) can be pevented from exploiting it's internationally recognised EEZ.

With this in mind, my original question asked what residents thought of the lack of any apparent response from the EU to what (from an outsiders perspective) appears to be a serious threat to an EU member & how you perceived this affecting things in RoC.

I would welcome any thoughts on the practical issues from you all.


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## Guest (Sep 23, 2011)

MartynKSA said:


> Hi Kimonas,
> 
> Thanks for this.
> 
> ...



Not living on Cyprus yet but still very interested in the issue I must agree with Kimonas. I cant imagine that this issue will end up as a military conflict from any side. And there is many reasons

One is that Turkey still tries to be a member of EU. The Turkish prime-minister even said the other day that it is a full membership that is interesting, not some half mesure. And he is ofc fully aware of the fact that this is not possible if Turkey does not solve the Cyprus issue as EU want or in any way take military action.


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## kimonas (Jul 19, 2008)

Vegaanders said:


> Not living on Cyprus yet but still very interested in the issue I must agree with Kimonas. I cant imagine that this issue will end up as a military conflict from any side. And there is many reasons
> 
> One is that Turkey still tries to be a member of EU. The Turkish prime-minister even said the other day that it is a full membership that is interesting, not some half mesure. And he is ofc fully aware of the fact that this is not possible if Turkey does not solve the Cyprus issue as EU want or in any way take military action.


The EU, in my view, made a fatal error in allowing the accession of Cyprus as a divided island – we have the reality now of an EU member state (and NATO country) being occupied by force of arms of a candidate state and NATO member. So far the EU has done little to resolve the issue other than close accession chapters in negotiations with Turkey and has in fact done much to pump EU money into the occupied areas. Despite the rhetoric and propagandised accounts of the Cyprus problem, the democratisation of information enabled by blogs, fora, archives and the www has eroded the traditional nationalistic accounts of the complex issues at hand and slowly but surely Turkey is winning the game as far as international brinkmanship is concerned. Today for example Turkey revealed it had impounded arms shipments bound for the Syrian regime which is busy butchering its own people whilst the Cypriot Government has shown its incompetence by doing everything in its power to placate the Syrian regime (which led to a previous arms shipment which Cyprus reluctantly impounded on the island exploding a couple of months back killing 13 people, destroying its main naval base and wiping out a major Cypriot power station). We also face a looming economic crisis in that Cyprus is bound in so many ways to the problems of Greece (a huge factor in the Cyprus issue is the failure for Cyprus to carve out its own national identity). Turkey has massive economic, political and military clout. Cyprus does not. I suspect whatever the solution (peaceful or not) the upshot will be a very different Cyprus than that of today. I think that the cultural fracture lines run so deep and the animosities between the two communities are irresolvable in the near to middle future. I just hope that the Republic of Cyprus can emerge with an identity that is not inevitably swallowed up by the seemingly impossible demographics of the unfolding situation around what has always been a contested island.


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## Guest (Sep 24, 2011)

As I see it the only hope for Cyprus problems to be solved( problems with Turkey is that Turkey want the EU membership more then the northern Cyprus) Then it will be solved, but it can take time. Also Cyprus being a Schengen state will not happen until the Turkish issue is solved

Anders


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## MartynKSA (Aug 7, 2011)

kimonas said:


> The EU, in my view, made a fatal error in allowing the accession of Cyprus as a divided island – we have the reality now of an EU member state (and NATO country) being occupied by force of arms of a candidate state and NATO member. So far the EU has done little to resolve the issue other than close accession chapters in negotiations with Turkey and has in fact done much to pump EU money into the occupied areas. Despite the rhetoric and propagandised accounts of the Cyprus problem, the democratisation of information enabled by blogs, fora, archives and the www has eroded the traditional nationalistic accounts of the complex issues at hand and slowly but surely Turkey is winning the game as far as international brinkmanship is concerned. Today for example Turkey revealed it had impounded arms shipments bound for the Syrian regime which is busy butchering its own people whilst the Cypriot Government has shown its incompetence by doing everything in its power to placate the Syrian regime (which led to a previous arms shipment which Cyprus reluctantly impounded on the island exploding a couple of months back killing 13 people, destroying its main naval base and wiping out a major Cypriot power station). We also face a looming economic crisis in that Cyprus is bound in so many ways to the problems of Greece (a huge factor in the Cyprus issue is the failure for Cyprus to carve out its own national identity). Turkey has massive economic, political and military clout. Cyprus does not. I suspect whatever the solution (peaceful or not) the upshot will be a very different Cyprus than that of today. I think that the cultural fracture lines run so deep and the animosities between the two communities are irresolvable in the near to middle future. I just hope that the Republic of Cyprus can emerge with an identity that is not inevitably swallowed up by the seemingly impossible demographics of the unfolding situation around what has always been a contested island.


Hi Kimonas,

a really useful viewpoint for anyone thinking of moving to Cyprus. It may well not have been very palatable for you to say what you have, but it was clearly considered and heartfelt & I found it very informative. Thanks

Has anyone a view on how the RoC Nationals (I'm not sure if they are correcty called Greek Cypriots, BTW, so this was my way of being PC!) are seeing this? And let's not forget Greece which, despite it's domestic financial problems, presumably still has an interest in the island. It was, after all, the coup d'état in Greece which was the trigger for Turkey to invade. Who's to say that there won't be another Greek coup in the near future, if things go badly on the economic front?

I don't want to appear alarmist, but really want to understand what MIGHT happen in the future


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## Veronica (Apr 5, 2008)

The Cypriots we have spoken to (including our accountant) say that it is highly unlikely that there will be any major escalation of tensions as Turkey are desperate to be welcomed into the EU so any threats they make are just postulating.
Also as the Cyprus government has said that Turkish Cypriots will also benefit from any income from oil/gas finds Turkey has no legitimate reason to take any sort of action against the South.


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## MartynKSA (Aug 7, 2011)

Thanks Veronica


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## zin (Oct 28, 2010)

kimonas what makes you think Cyprus has failed to carve its own national identity? 

Those who think they are Greek and not Cypriot are mostly the minority (and a big part of right-wing politics). Sure we share the same language, national anthem, religion and similar culture but we are descendants of the Mycenaean Greeks and were ruled by the Byzantine Empire for a number of centuries so we can't be expected to shake off a few hundred years of history in a few decades surely? At any rate, as far as I'm concerned, the idiots who like to wave around the Greek flag instead of the Cypriot flag don't represent me and the current government in any case considers its people first and foremost Cypriot.

I think the misunderstanding is when people say "Greek Cypriot" the full term should be Greek-speaking Cypriot. It's like calling a Welsh person English just because they speak English. 

Yes our relationship with Greece is good but that's more to do with speaking the same language in my opinion - thus you find Cypriots living and studying in Greece and Greeks living and studying in Cyprus as it's convenient knowing the same language. The same way Austria, Switzerland, Germany and Liechtenstein have a good relationship I imagine. 

If anything I find most Cypriots don't like to relate to Greece. Perhaps where you are is more prevailant (usually in the capital).


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## kimonas (Jul 19, 2008)

zin said:


> kimonas what makes you think Cyprus has failed to carve its own national identity?
> 
> Those who think they are Greek and not Cypriot are mostly the minority (and a big part of right-wing politics). Sure we share the same language, national anthem, religion and similar culture but we are descendants of the Mycenaean Greeks and were ruled by the Byzantine Empire for a number of centuries so we can't be expected to shake off a few hundred years of history in a few decades surely? At any rate, as far as I'm concerned, the idiots who like to wave around the Greek flag instead of the Cypriot flag don't represent me and the current government in any case considers its people first and foremost Cypriot.
> 
> ...


Actually, Zin, I wasn’t making the point that Cyprus had failed to carve out a national identity, but rather was expressing a concern that it might not be able to maintain an identity in most of the probable scenarios for resolution. But you have raised an important issue that perhaps Greek nationalism, although in a minority has influenced key events and institutions, to an extent that has pretty much strangled conciliation, compromise and progression in reaching a resolution to the Cyprus Problem, and indeed carving out a national identity. I’m not trying to be provocative or controversial here and understand that the intransigence of Turkey’s influence over the so called TRNC’s negotiators have also played an equal part in the lack of progress. To be honest, I hadn’t really thought of the Cyprus Problem as a failure to carve out a strong national identity until you mentioned it. The Greek nationalist, pro-enosis movement, albeit in a minority managed through its agitation/heroism to force an early withdrawal of Britain, but failed in its goals of reaching union with Greece. The short lived holistic RoC that resulted from the struggle for enosis only half functioned (because of the impossible constitution foisted on it by Cold War Power Politics) from 1960-1963 and descended into intercommunal violence thereafter from 1964 when the UN peace keeping force was first posted here. The tragedy of the Junta’s coup d’etat and the resulting intervention/invasion of Turkey in 1974 has resulted in today’s reality of a divided island. Looking to the future (which will probably be a federated, bicommunal set up – the de jure recognition of the de facto reality of the past 37 years), we can also perhaps envision a scenario where Turkey is admitted to the EU and the various EU treaties and directives render the demarcation of the two federated states a fully permeable membrane. The consequences of that, because of the inevitable demographics could mean that anyone visiting or living here, say 30 years from now, would feel that the island is more ‘Turkish’ than ‘Greek’ or ‘Cypriot’.


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## zin (Oct 28, 2010)

I think the time for finding a solution was missed when the Annan plan was rejected. I'm of the belief that we will never have a better opportunity in the near future again to resolve the Cyprus problem. 

Unfortunately the biggest failing of the plan was putting forward the plan itself, thousands and thousands of pages long and then asking people to go over it to form an opinion within a short period of time and vote yes or no. I was in Cyprus at the time and found the whole thing quite surreal, especially when the president went on live television and made everyone's decision for them to say no by crying on TV.

I don't believe Turkey will be allowed into the EU until the Cyprus problem is resolved, it's a big caveat for their entry and I would be quite surprised if the case was otherwise. I also don't believe the problem will be solved for a couple more generations, when the people affected directly by 1974 become less and less and the new generation has less affiliation with the north.


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