# China Gearing Up For War



## Asian Spirit (Mar 1, 2010)

Former [US] National Security Adviser Roilo Golez has warned about the dangers posed to Philippine security and ASEAN regional stability should China establish a military installation capable of holding warships and...

Read More Here
{Inq News}


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## jon1 (Mar 18, 2012)

Some sobering analysis...


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## JM101 (Jan 6, 2015)

In reading that article, I picked a H&%@ of a time to move to PI.....

JM101


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## northwoods (Nov 14, 2013)

im still in usa .
planning to move to phil , in apx 5 years .
NOT HAPPY TO READ THIS ... NEWS .


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## simonsays (Feb 11, 2009)

JM101 said:


> In reading that article, I picked a H&%@ of a time to move to PI.....
> 
> JM101


They been doing the building of infra in Spratleys for more than 10 years ... anyway fear not .. half or so of PH wealth/business/economy is owned or controlled by Taipans..


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## cvgtpc1 (Jul 28, 2012)

northwoods said:


> im still in usa .
> planning to move to phil , in apx 5 years .
> NOT HAPPY TO READ THIS ... NEWS .


I might move there in 10 and already expected it might not be an option by then which I'm not happy with.


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## fmartin_gila (May 15, 2011)

The article gives one a lot to think about. For those of us living here may at some future date have to make some serious, hard & painful decisions. About all we can do at this point in time is to try to be attentive to what is going on.

Fred


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## Palawenio (Mar 4, 2014)

I came to awareness of this thread in response to norwood's concern about this matter.

Please allow me to write here briefly just to lend calm to this topic. I don't want potential neighbors and friends from other countries to give up on their dreams of living in the Philippines just because of this very old China vs. Philippines land-grab.

There are physical wars, like where 2 or more sides are actually killing each other. 

Then there are forms of psych wars, wherein it's like a chess game, but the rewards are tactically and economically beneficial to the winner. Nobody dies in this war. 
In this particular case, the players are the U.S., China, and the Philippines.

Heck, up north of Canada, there are territorial disputes involving several countries, the main prize being fishing rights to the area. This issue is not uncommon.

My own personal assessment of this issue : I'm not worried. We are all going to die eventually anyhow, no one exempted. So I am not letting something of this trivia prevent me from claiming my dreams.

Long live expats in the Philippines ! MABUHAY !


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## colemanlee (Nov 17, 2014)

In the end its more a political war than anything else....maybe it would get the American bases back which might be good for the military retirees here...beyond that its no big deal...


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## simonsays (Feb 11, 2009)

colemanlee said:


> In the end its more a political war than anything else....maybe it would get the American bases back which might be good for the military retirees here...beyond that its no big deal...


i still am convinced China may go to war, just to distract the growing local discords, whatever that is

years ago they did it to India, and Vietnam, and why would they think much against a much much weaker PH, a PH where the natives celebrated when they threw the Americans out and a strong anti-US lobby keeps the people believing Americans are evil .. 

And I wonder how much blood would US spill, if China engages in small scale conflicts, like how they laid siege to Sierra Madre, preventing even re-supply missions.

And see how mercilessly they sunk a vietnam Fishing vessel recently under the pretext of protecting an oil rig !!


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## UltraFJ40 (May 20, 2014)

My opinion is very similar to ecureilx's, I truly believe that the only way a bankrupt China can maintain it's death grip on it's people & money is to possibly create a conflict requiring the gov't to draw down in the name of Nationalism and security. Obviously this could lead to severe financial implications.

The upper echelon is walking a fine line between being broke, being thrown out or being punched right in the bank account. Not an easy problem to maneuver around.

This is obviously just my opinion and I could be wrong but that's the vibe I'm getting.

It is very real but serious enough that the pressure will continue to build as they search for an easier way to stay in power for the next decade or so before it hits the fan. Two decades? Probably not (IMHO).


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## cvgtpc1 (Jul 28, 2012)

colemanlee said:


> which might be good for the military retirees here....


Even then it wasn't that big a deal. I think they had a $50/month ration they could only use at the shopette, but suppose they were able to use the hospitals? Not sure.

They didn't have full BX/PX/Commissary access like they do in the US due to ration controls.

My retiree buddies used to have me buy them stuff lol.


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## jon1 (Mar 18, 2012)

And with the way they are going with Tricare, I doubt that they would be able to use any base hospitals.

At this stage of the game, any new overseas bases will not happen. It will be expeditionary types of bases for unaccompanied tours that can be quickly folded up when their mission is complete without the long term commitments of base support (infrastructure, leases, etc.).


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## colemanlee (Nov 17, 2014)

jon1 said:


> And with the way they are going with Tricare, I doubt that they would be able to use any base hospitals.
> 
> At this stage of the game, any new overseas bases will not happen. It will be expeditionary types of bases for unaccompanied tours that can be quickly folded up when their mission is complete without the long term commitments of base support (infrastructure, leases, etc.).


I certainly tend to agree, I remember one of our Flight Engineers who was married to a Filipina but stationed in Okinawa, right before he retired he got the CO to transfer him to one of the Marine Contingents here in the Philippines..He took advantage of that to buy stuff in the ExChange for his house and some other stuff he could only get if stationed in the Phils...that was about 79 or 80

With the way the US has taken most of our (retirees) benefits unless we got somebody that actually supported the Military in 2016 we are permanently sc***ed. Hurts me to say that but it seems to be the truth..


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## fmartin_gila (May 15, 2011)

Quite a few differing thoughts here. Irregardless of what we think or want, they are going to do as they want and and feel they can get by with. They probably won't even bother to ask what we think. LOL. It may amount to next to nothing or we may sometime in the future have to deal with the fallout. Next couple years should prove interesting.

Fred


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## simonsays (Feb 11, 2009)

fmartin_gila said:


> *Quite a few differing thoughts here. Irregardless of what we think or want, they are going to do as they want and and feel they can get by with. They probably won't even bother to ask what we think.* LOL. It may amount to next to nothing or we may sometime in the future have to deal with the fallout. Next couple years should prove interesting.
> 
> Fred


+1 

:decision::flock::crutch:


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## Asian Spirit (Mar 1, 2010)

*Stronger US Intrest Showing*

The US Navy along with the Philippine government is openly showing more interest in keeping China in check in the islands West of Luzon.


Read More Here
{Inq News}


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## lefties43332 (Oct 21, 2012)

Jet Lag said:


> The US Navy along with the Philippine government is openly showing more interest in keeping China in check in the islands West of Luzon.
> 
> Read More Here
> {Inq News}


And 2 subs this week which is no secret
Its normal here along with choppers


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## galactic (Dec 2, 2014)

Jet Lag said:


> The US Navy along with the Philippine government is openly showing more interest in keeping China in check in the islands West of Luzon.
> 
> 
> Read More Here
> {Inq News}


Chinese are building whatever they want on the disputed areas.
Ramming local small boat fisherfolk off the coast of Masinloc which is very near the former Subic Naval base.
IMO this defensive posturing of the USN and PN is not working.


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## Asian Spirit (Mar 1, 2010)

galactic said:


> Chinese are building whatever they want on the disputed areas.
> Ramming local small boat fisherfolk off the coast of Masinloc which is very near the former Subic Naval base.
> IMO this defensive posturing of the USN and PN is not working.


Oh it's working and has worked for decades. If that were not true, China and or Russia would have over-run and taken over the Philippines long ago. The "interest" of this country by the US is the only thing that has prevented this.

One needs to remember that although the islands and islets are "disputed", they still are beyond the 12 mile limit recognized as a countries border (more or less) and thus are in international water.

Now if China were to try to take over say Grande Island inside Subic Bay, The United States and other alliad countries would within days teach China a lesson they would never forget.

I do think though that China will push things to the limit until they get their figuitive hands slapped and put back in their box.


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## galactic (Dec 2, 2014)

Geo Politics gives me a headache.

The Philippines is one of the pawns in the chess game of the superpowers.
And everybody knows what happens to pawns.


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## jon1 (Mar 18, 2012)

Jet Lag said:


> The US Navy along with the Philippine government is openly showing more interest in keeping China in check in the islands West of Luzon.
> 
> 
> Read More Here
> {Inq News}


Here is some good reading. The P8A also has a loiter time in excess of 12 hours (I am sure it has to be in flight refueled). Exclusive: P-8 Poseidon Flies With Shadowy Radar System Attached

Also some stuff from last year As China Deploys Nuclear Submarines, U.S. P-8 Poseidon Jets Snoop on Them - WSJ


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## simonsays (Feb 11, 2009)

jon1 said:


> Here is some good reading. The P8A also has a loiter time in excess of 12 hours (I am sure it has to be in flight refueled). Exclusive: P-8 Poseidon Flies With Shadowy Radar System Attached
> 
> Also some stuff from last year As China Deploys Nuclear Submarines, U.S. P-8 Poseidon Jets Snoop on Them - WSJ


The P8 has long loiter time without refuelling I recall 

Btw what will happen If China calls on the US debts ?

I am still convinced US will not stop China taking over most of Spratleys .. and China is also careful in that ..


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## colemanlee (Nov 17, 2014)

I guess China could call in the US debt...but remember, China now manufactures much of the US needs...(and everybody else) so if the US was broke and could not pay them to manufacture stuff it would put a serious kink in their GNP....seems like its a catch 22


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## Asian Spirit (Mar 1, 2010)

galactic said:


> Geo Politics gives me a headache.
> 
> The Philippines is one of the pawns in the chess game of the superpowers.
> And everybody knows what happens to pawns.


Cuba, the Falklands, and several other places could be considered a political pawn but not the Philippines. There is a standing mutual defense treaty in place with the US that would undoubtedly be honored. Again, that is the main reason the US is here and actually should be and remain here. This country (the Philippines) is both unable of effective self government and self defense.
China knows this and would capitalize on those two facts if the US was outa here.


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## simonsays (Feb 11, 2009)

colemanlee said:


> I guess China could call in the US debt...but remember, China now manufactures much of the US needs...(and everybody else) so if the US was broke and could not pay them to manufacture stuff it would put a serious kink in their GNP....seems like its a catch 22


But if China stops shipping IPhones I guess the largest private economy may be in big trouble . As would every other grown man in the western world ... 

Just kidding .. I get your point 

It is catch 22 but I am sure the US will tacitly allow China to do what they like unless and until China knocks on Philippines door .. but by that time it may be too late ..

China btw, has been quietly taking majority ownership in some Filipino business bypassing the 60/40 rule - apparently with the blessing of the Palace and that's other than what it may control via the Taipans (taipans who have been parking most of their investments Outside PH .. i.e China , till less than half their money is in Philippines as of now, someone estimated).


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## Gary D (Oct 28, 2013)

The way China is growing its domestic economy it soon won't need the likes of the US.


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## Nickleback99 (Aug 6, 2011)

Gary D said:


> The way China is growing its domestic economy it soon won't need the likes of the US.


The Chinese economy is very much a shell game of cranking out cheap goods for rest of world to buy , especially the U.S., while creating other "false" jobs and building of ghost cities, etc in order to appease and keep a Gigantic population at bay with employment. Just a different version of what has always e,sited in Chinese history...keeping the still Huge Poor populace at bay and appeased, until a massive beat down is needed to suppress any uprising. My intell transition team in Iraq had a phrase "food water/sewer, electricity, security and jobs" as what is required for a population to feel some level of human dignity. China will not surpass the U.S. in our lifetime....the relationship now is absolutely symbiotic.


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## simonsays (Feb 11, 2009)

unggoy said:


> Silly expats. China will never try to take over the Philippines. They already own it!


Lol


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## EuroBob (Feb 23, 2015)

This Intelligence officer gave specific mention of China in his recent retirement speech and has a history of voicing concerns regarding what he sees as China's "modus operandi".
Navy Intel Officer Warns of Future China Conflict | Washington Free Beacon


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## colemanlee (Nov 17, 2014)

If I had to guess, based on the 15 years I worked in DOD, I would guess Fanell just angered the liberals....there are lots of people working for the DOD that only care about smoothing things over, telling the bosses what they want to hear (yes men) and protecting their rice bowl, Fanell might be a little to the right on some of his predictions but I would rather be prepared than minimizing the threat to appease the liberals...


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## EuroBob (Feb 23, 2015)

colemanlee said:


> If I had to guess, based on the 15 years I worked in DOD, I would guess Fanell just angered the liberals....there are lots of people working for the DOD that only care about smoothing things over, telling the bosses what they want to hear (yes men) and protecting their rice bowl, Fanell might be a little to the right on some of his predictions but I would rather be prepared than minimizing the threat to appease the liberals...


His retirement speech makes me fear you are correct.
I am glad he had such a prestigious retirement ceremony with people who he respects singing his praises.

He served 29 years, so hopefully, based on when his service began, he will get his full retirement benefits.


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## EuroBob (Feb 23, 2015)

ecureilx said:


> i still am convinced China may go to war, just to distract the growing local discords, whatever that is
> 
> years ago they did it to India, and Vietnam, and why would they think much against a much much weaker PH, a PH where the natives celebrated when they threw the Americans out and a strong anti-US lobby keeps the people believing Americans are evil ..
> 
> ...


I am not an expert on the matter, but I presume China is mainly motivated by their oil-security policy and then the fish and shipping rights are just secondary bonuses. I believe it serves China’s interests to always try to deal with countries on a one-to-one basis and avoid dealing with blocks of countries or groups of countries, like ASEAN. 
It might be clever for China to increase the number of citizens that they have in the area, so they can use them as a “casus belli”, a reason to go to war. Do you remember China’s actions in Tibet? What is to stop China? 
I presume that China will increase its control in the region over the years. At some point, China will then more strongly enforce their claim to the area by demanding that ships or planes seek their permission to enter the area. They have already done this in the past, but in the future they will send up jets to threaten airlines and use their navy to impound ships. 
When this starts happening the world will start to unite and before conflict erupts, China will strike a free passage agreement, which includes acknowledgements that the territory is China’s. This will diffuse the tension and strengthen China’s claim to the area.
Russia recently manipulated events which resulted in their control of Crimea. The world may protest. The world may go so far as sanctions, but the world does not see the benefit of a war with big powers.


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## 888dino (Apr 22, 2014)

Spratlys is just another segment and fire starter for when brics eventually claim to be the official super power. With isis, israel vs christianity its all inevitable regardless of our location. I think greenland is a relatively safe haven for all.


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