# Spanish property a "one-way bet"



## webmarcos (Dec 25, 2012)

Surely this is a little over-optimistic? Or is he correct - we've had the ten difficult years, so things can only go up now?

Spanish property a one-way bet for next five years? - Spanish Property Insight



> So it all looks very rosy, as far as Bernardos is concerned. “After the dangerous decade (2006 – 2015) will come five marvellous years (2016-2020),” he claims. Investor interest, and strong economic growth in Spain (around 3%) will “finish off the hangover and carry the real estate market to a new period of growth.”
> 
> Bernardos is bullish despite concern about the global economy, arguing that the international situation will be “compensated for by an increase in Spanish household spending and company investment, especially in construction.”


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## Rabbitcat (Aug 31, 2014)

For those of you who have Spanish property I hope it is correct. You have had tough times and good luck to you if you now get a rise in your prices

Obviously for buyers who's currency is sterling there's the downside but hey that's life


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## Alcalaina (Aug 6, 2010)

Three percent growth is all very well but if it is achieved by reducing wages and job security I can't see how the property market can recover. If you don't have a secure well-paid job you are unlikely to be buying a house. They can't all go to foreigners.


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## Dedaneen (Jul 6, 2013)

Im assuming Bernados isnt the same there as here?


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## Alcalaina (Aug 6, 2010)

Dedaneen said:


> Im assuming Bernados isnt the same there as here?


No, he's an economics professor at Barcelona university.


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## Dedaneen (Jul 6, 2013)

Alcalaina said:


> No, he's an economics professor at Barcelona university.


Not homeless then?

:rofl::rofl::rofl:


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## webmarcos (Dec 25, 2012)

Alcalaina said:


> Three percent growth is all very well but if it is achieved by reducing wages and job security I can't see how the property market can recover. If you don't have a secure well-paid job you are unlikely to be buying a house. They can't all go to foreigners.


If things like consumer spending, travel using high speed rail, and car purchases are going up (which I understand they are) then obviously a certain segment of society are benefiting.

It's never the people at the bottom who buy houses - the folk in the uk using food banks and soup kitchens and forced to do zero-hour contracts are hardly going to be able to get a mortgage, but that didn't stop prices rising and rising


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## Alcalaina (Aug 6, 2010)

webmarcos said:


> If things like consumer spending, travel using high speed rail, and car purchases are going up (which I understand they are) then obviously a certain segment of society are benefiting.
> 
> It's never the people at the bottom who buy houses - the folk in the uk using food banks and soup kitchens and forced to do zero-hour contracts are hardly going to be able to get a mortgage, but that didn't stop prices rising and rising


But there are many differences between the UK and Spanish markets.

Isn't the percentage of low-paid / temporary / unemployed workers much higher in Spain?

A lot of the pressure on the UK housing market is from buy-to-let and overseas investers. Not so common here, at least at the bottom end.

Didn't the UK recently offer some tax incentive for first time buyers? Again, that doesn't happen in Spain and mortgage defaulters can't just hand back the keys or go bankrupt like they can in the UK.

I really hope things are picking up but I'll believe it when I see it. And because the "recovery" is based on low-paid jobs there isn't enough tax being paid so the government just raided the pension pot again.

Elecciones Generales 2016: Podemos, Ciudadanos y sindicatos se unen al PSOE contra el hachazo a las pensiones. Noticias de Elecciones Generales


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## webmarcos (Dec 25, 2012)

> I really hope things are picking up but I'll believe it when I see it.


Not only are house prices rising now in Spain, but there are reports rents are now increasing. Of course not all of us will think that is a good thing...

Rental prices start on upward trend, suggests agency - Spanish Property Insight

Incidentally house sales were up 23.6% in May compared to the previous year (36,425 properties).


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## Pesky Wesky (May 10, 2009)

"Things are picking up" is a phrase that has always focused on what is being sold and bought in general and there will always be segments of the population that don't benefit from this. I think house prices _*are*_ increasing and as I've said on other threads, construction is slowly making a comeback in some areas. However, those houses are still not needed, so are we just going towards another crisis in a few years time? Personally I think we are and I think the people in power don't see it's their job to do anything about it.
One of the most worrying aspects of the present situation in Spain is the gap in inequality which just keeps on growing. 
Inequality between rich and poor has hit record highs, OECD warns | In English | EL PAÍS


> Across all OECD countries, the population below the poverty line grew from 1% to 9.4%. In Spain, that figure is an alarming 18%, nearly twice as much as before the crisis. And it is often youngsters, not the elderly, who are more likely to fall into poverty.


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## webmarcos (Dec 25, 2012)

> One of the most worrying aspects of the present situation in Spain is the gap in inequality which just keeps on growing.


Isn't that the case in most western countries? Certainly in the UK and US the gap has become enormous. Is there a western country where this is not happening, and what are they doing right?


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## 95995 (May 16, 2010)

There are lots of non-Brits moving to Spain, particularly Russians. I just hope that if it's correct it doesn't (a) price the ordinary Spanish citizen out of the market and (b) create yet another property bubble.


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## Pesky Wesky (May 10, 2009)

webmarcos said:


> Isn't that the case in most western countries? Certainly in the UK and US the gap has become enormous. Is there a western country where this is not happening, and what are they doing right?


Yes, but 



> Across all OECD countries, the population below the poverty line grew from 1% to *9.4%*. In _*Spain*_, that figure is an alarming *18%*


Your question could be rephrased to ask "What is Spain doing so much worse than other countries?", couldn't it?


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## webmarcos (Dec 25, 2012)

Pesky Wesky said:


> Yes, but
> 
> 
> Your question could be rephrased to ask "What is Spain doing so much worse than other countries?", couldn't it?



Goes back to the construction slump imho.
Now things are picking up you'll see a steady decrease in unemployment year on year as construction sets on labour.
I agree, not ideal, but we are where we are.


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## bob_bob (Jan 5, 2011)

Lets be honest, if, and its a big if, prices to improve, property in Spain will still be very cheap in Spain for some years to come compared to many parts of the UK and not just London.

If you want real value for money housing the USA is truly dirt cheap compared to Europe. I've recently returned from Minnesota and you get a lot of floor space for your bucks.


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## mrypg9 (Apr 26, 2008)

bob_bob said:


> Lets be honest, if, and its a big if, prices to improve, property in Spain will still be very cheap in Spain for some years to come compared to many parts of the UK and not just London.
> 
> If you want real value for money housing the USA is truly dirt cheap compared to Europe. I've recently returned from Minnesota and you get a lot of floor space for your bucks.


But you have to live in Minnesota.


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## bob_bob (Jan 5, 2011)

mrypg9 said:


> But you have to live in Minnesota.


Not just Minnesota Mary, the USA in general. A retired couple from the UK with good pensions can buy a lovely home in many parts of the States, especially Florida and live well.


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## Isobella (Oct 16, 2014)

bob_bob said:


> Not just Minnesota Mary, the USA in general. A retired couple from the UK with good pensions can buy a lovely home in many parts of the States, especially Florida and live well.


Very true but we can't just move there legally. My Sister in law has a fantastic life there but she is married to am American.


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## davids0865 (Apr 12, 2016)

bob_bob said:


> Not just Minnesota Mary, the USA in general. A retired couple from the UK with good pensions can buy a lovely home in many parts of the States, especially Florida and live well.


But could they afford the health insurance??


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## Rabbitcat (Aug 31, 2014)

Also you are very limited as to how often you can use it as per visa restrictions


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## bob_bob (Jan 5, 2011)

Like a lot of brits who have homes in Spain, you can spend 90 days a year in the States, an attractive option for many.


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## snikpoh (Nov 19, 2007)

bob_bob said:


> Like a lot of brits who have homes in Spain, you can spend 90 days a year in the States, an attractive option for many.




?? but you can spend a lot longer than that in Spain - up to 183 days without causing any issues regarding tax etc.


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## Rabbitcat (Aug 31, 2014)

bob_bob said:


> Like a lot of brits who have homes in Spain, you can spend 90 days a year in the States, an attractive option for many.



Would you really wanna buy a house somewhere you could only spend 90 days a year?

Some might, many wouldn't


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## Dedaneen (Jul 6, 2013)

Rabbitcat said:


> Would you really wanna buy a house somewhere you could only spend 90 days a year?
> 
> Some might, many wouldn't



Good idea if its in a tourist trap where it would make you a decent income :idunno:


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## Rabbitcat (Aug 31, 2014)

You seen the pound v dollar recently........


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## tahoma72 (Jun 5, 2016)

I would love to say that the Spanish market would be a safe bet but I really can not see it. There are two completely different markets going on. The average Spaniard does not look for the type of property that expats do. Making money on the Spanish property market from an expat point of view is just not going to happen. Even if prices go up the amount you have to pay in capital gains tax in Spain makes the excitement of property increases evaporate. Instead I think it would be great to just have a stable market but there is far too much uncertainty flying around. Brexit has, sadly, caused chaos. At the moment this is focussed on how it will affect the UK but the effects on the EU will be huge. If the Italian banks fail the situation is too big for the rest to bail out. The effects on Spain will be huge. My prediction is that a new currency will be introduced for the southern EU countries but whatever happens it will have huge affects on Spain. Uncertainty is the worst thing for any markets.


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## mrypg9 (Apr 26, 2008)

I had a beautiful retirement home in Canada, Allheart knows the little town. It was spacious, wood flooring and fittings throughout. Situated in the rural Ottawa Valley, a fifty minute drive from the capital, a couple of hours from Montreal. The property was in a Heritage building, a converted mill, and had riverside frontage withna 60 foot drop waterfall that froze in winter.
We intended to settle there but after a few lengthy visits changed our minds.
Extremely hot in summer, unspeakably cold in winter, only allowed six months stay in a year, long and expensive flights to the UK, expensive health insurance...
And ultimately boring for Europeans used to variety and cultural stimuli.
We sold. Cheap isn't everything.


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## bob_bob (Jan 5, 2011)

Spain has two things going for it, hot summers and very cheap housing, they are the pull for many... so cheap is all to many.


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## Dedaneen (Jul 6, 2013)

Rabbitcat said:


> You seen the pound v dollar recently........


TBH no, Ive been keeping a close eye on the Euro as I watched the pound take a nose dive and still falling albeit a little slower atm


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## VFR (Dec 23, 2009)

Interesting report & from my experience of late its the Spanish who are buying in most of the areas we know about, in fact three have sold in the last 6 months in our small area so things are changing.


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## bob_bob (Jan 5, 2011)

The dollar and the euro are down but have yet to hit the lows of a few years ago, in fact the euro was floating around the 1.2 (ish) mark for a long time and only really hit 1.4 comparatively recently.

Mary talked about financial planning before any move overseas and I'd say work you budget based on a 1:1 £/€ so anything else above that is a bonus.


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## Alcalaina (Aug 6, 2010)

bob_bob said:


> Not just Minnesota Mary, the USA in general. A retired couple from the UK with good pensions can buy a lovely home in many parts of the States, especially Florida and live well.


And pay how much for health insurance?


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## bob_bob (Jan 5, 2011)

Alcalaina said:


> And pay how much for health insurance?


I guess if you have the dosh and the balls to buy a place in the States the cost of health insurance is not that important. Same as if you retire early to Spain, you'll need to pay for health care.


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## VFR (Dec 23, 2009)

bob_bob said:


> I guess if you have the dosh and the balls to buy a place in the States the cost of health insurance is not that important. Same as if you retire early to Spain, you'll need to pay for health care.


From the Americans I have spoken to their excess is far more than you would ever pay here for insurance and that is without the cost of the policy.


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## Lynn R (Feb 21, 2014)

A few former work colleagues of mine bought property in Florida as holiday homes, and suffered from falls in property prices as least as big as those in Spain when their property market crashed. They didn't seem to make nearly as much use of them as we and others we knew who had holiday homes in Spain or other European countries did, because of the distance involved - it isn't really worth taking a transatlantic flight just for a long weekend, not to mention the extra time at airports due to US security requiremets.

From everything I read, I believe the local property taxes are much higher on US properties (although they vary a lot according to area) than what we pay in IBI.


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## Lynn R (Feb 21, 2014)

VFR said:


> From the Americans I have spoken to their excess is far more than you would ever pay here for insurance and that is without the cost of the policy.


A couple from Florida own a holiday home almost opposite my house. They always have dental treatment and check-ups during one of their visits to Spain (one of them has had a full set of dental implants) because it is so much cheaper, and in their opinion the treatment is of good quality, here in Spain.


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## bob_bob (Jan 5, 2011)

Right, its peeing down in Wales but the campervan is loaded and Snowdonia is calling


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## Alcalaina (Aug 6, 2010)

bob_bob said:


> Right, its peeing down in Wales but the campervan is loaded and Snowdonia is calling


I was in a campervan in Snowdonia in the rain when England won the World Cup. I remember me and my dad waving the tranny in the air trying to get a signal. Perhaps it's a good omen for Andy Murray? Have fun anyway!


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## Rabbitcat (Aug 31, 2014)

Waving a tranny in the air whilst in a CAMPer van- now there's a fun weekend!!!


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## Alcalaina (Aug 6, 2010)

Rabbitcat said:


> Waving a tranny in the air whilst in a CAMPer van- now there's a fun weekend!!!


Worse than that, we were there for a WHOLE WEEK and it rained very day; my dad had toothache and mum wouldn't go to the shower block because there were spiders. It was the last time I ever went camping with my parents!


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## Rabbitcat (Aug 31, 2014)

Did the tranny object to being hoisted in the air or was he/she game for this entertainment


Ps feel sorry for your poor mum re the spiders


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## Pesky Wesky (May 10, 2009)

:focus:
Meanwhile, bang on topic, at least the OPs topic, is this article from 8th July 2016
La compraventa de vivienda no para: sube un 23,6% en mayo | Vivienda | EL PAÃ�S


> La compraventa de casas suma y sigue en España. Durante el mes de mayo el número de viviendas que cambiaron de manos aumentó un 23,6% en relación al mismo periodo de 2015. En el quinto mes se cerraron 36.425 operaciones, su mayor cifra desde enero de 2013 (39.920 transacciones), según el Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE). No obstante, el repunte -el cuarto consecutivo- es algo menos intenso que el registrado en abril, cuando los valores se dispararon un 29% en tasa interanual. Además, se trata del menor repunte mensual (3,5%) en los últimos cinco años.


House sales in Spain carry on growing. In the month of May the number of properties that changed hands grew by 23,6% compared to the same period in 2015. 36.425 transactions were made in the 5th month, the biggest number since January 2013 when there were 39.920 transactions according to the National Insitute of Statistics. However, this upturn, the fourth consecutive, is a little weaker than that registered in April when growth rocketed to 29% of the interannual rate. It is also the smallest monthly rise (3,5%) of the last 5 years


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## Alcalaina (Aug 6, 2010)

Rabbitcat said:


> Did the tranny object to being hoisted in the air or was he/she game for this entertainment
> 
> 
> Ps feel sorry for your poor mum re the spiders


Oh I get it. You're too young to remember transistor radios.


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## Dedaneen (Jul 6, 2013)

Alcalaina said:


> I was in a campervan in Snowdonia in the rain when England won the World Cup. I remember me and my dad waving the tranny in the air trying to get a signal. Perhaps it's a good omen for Andy Murray? Have fun anyway!


Did you just give her a lift or were you extremely proud of her?:noidea:


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## VFR (Dec 23, 2009)

Pesky Wesky said:


> :focus:
> Meanwhile, bang on topic, at least the OPs topic, is this article from 8th July 2016
> La compraventa de vivienda no para: sube un 23,6% en mayo | Vivienda | EL PAÍS
> House sales in Spain carry on growing. In the month of May the number of properties that changed hands grew by 23,6% compared to the same period in 2015. 36.425 transactions were made in the 5th month, the biggest number since January 2013 when there were 39.920 transactions according to the National Insitute of Statistics. However, this upturn, the fourth consecutive, is a little weaker than that registered in April when growth rocketed to 29% of the interannual rate. It is also the smallest monthly rise (3,5%) of the last 5 years


Bears out what I have been seeing then.


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## Gfplux (Jun 27, 2016)

Pesky Wesky said:


> :focus:
> Meanwhile, bang on topic, at least the OPs topic, is this article from 8th July 2016
> La compraventa de vivienda no para: sube un 23,6% en mayo | Vivienda | EL PAÍS
> House sales in Spain carry on growing. In the month of May the number of properties that changed hands grew by 23,6% compared to the same period in 2015. 36.425 transactions were made in the 5th month, the biggest number since January 2013 when there were 39.920 transactions according to the National Insitute of Statistics. However, this upturn, the fourth consecutive, is a little weaker than that registered in April when growth rocketed to 29% of the interannual rate. It is also the smallest monthly rise (3,5%) of the last 5 years


Just my thoughts.
First I don't have any skin in the game but with a very, very small holiday property on the coast in the South of France (83) I am always envious of the price per square meter available on the coast in Spain.

Making money out of property is for property developers.
In my opinion it is all about liquidity. If I want to move can I sell.
While the market has so many property's for sale how will I sell my property?
Again in my opinion you need the pipeline to empty a little and then prices will move upwards.
From a distance I worry that many property's built during the crazy years were of poor quality, corners were cut. Therefore would I be better off buying brand new off plan.
Just my thoughts.


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## Pesky Wesky (May 10, 2009)

Gfplux said:


> Just my thoughts.
> First I don't have any skin in the game but with a very, very small holiday property on the coast in the South of France (83) I am always envious of the price per square meter available on the coast in Spain.
> 
> Making money out of property is for property developers.
> ...


I agree!
PS Why 83 after_ in the South of France _??


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## Gfplux (Jun 27, 2016)

Pesky Wesky said:


> I agree!
> PS Why 83 after_ in the South of France _??


It is the French Department number. So shows the general area. It is the first two numbers in a French postcode.


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## Dedaneen (Jul 6, 2013)

Gfplux said:


> It is the French Department number. So shows the general area. It is the first two numbers in a French postcode.


Thought you were boasting how young you were


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## labob (Dec 2, 2014)

Some friends bought a holiday home in Florida as they're golf mad. The cost of flights put them off using it that much but the worst thing was the lack of pavements. They like an evening stroll which is hard to do when you're basically just wandering over people's driveways and front gardens.

I bought in Spain on the presumption I wouldn't be able to sell. This is my home and I'm hoping to be here until retirement, buy it's been interesting to read that a couple of hundred homes have been sold to foreigners in the seaside part of Valencia. It's been making the locals take a second look.


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## Isobella (Oct 16, 2014)

labobwithpasswordtrouble said:


> Some friends bought a holiday home in Florida as they're golf mad. The cost of flights put them off using it that much but the worst thing was the lack of pavements. They like an evening stroll which is hard to do when you're basically just wandering over people's driveways and front gardens.
> 
> I bought in Spain on the presumption I wouldn't be able to sell. This is my home and I'm hoping to be here until retirement, buy it's been interesting to read that a couple of hundred homes have been sold to foreigners in the seaside part of Valencia. It's been making the locals take a second look.


I wouldn't buy any property on the presumption I wouldn't be able to sell. You never know what life will turn up!

Suppose it depends where you buy in Florida, lots of places where you can stroll...and jog.


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## labob (Dec 2, 2014)

Isobella said:


> I wouldn't buy any property on the presumption I wouldn't be able to sell. You never know what life will turn up!
> 
> Suppose it depends where you buy in Florida, lots of places where you can stroll...and jog.


I know but thanks to too many years suffering through the British rental market I'm not moving for the next 30 years no matter what's thrown at me.

There were places for them to stroll but they had to drive to them. Defeats the object somewhat.


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