# Spain and currently falling global markets



## nimtree (Sep 29, 2015)

Just a little bit concerned about the weak state of Spain and the current state of global economic markets, falling prices of steel and oil. 

It may make Spain's recovery slower and tougher...

Any thoughts?


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## olivefarmer (Oct 16, 2012)

I have a pessimistic view of Spain from a recovery point of view. Might be another five possibly ten years before things get good again in terms of jobs and the building industry. My Spanish neighbours thought I was mad when I said it would take ten years to recover from this crash. They thought two years.

The world scenario is actually quite worrying. Whole economies are based on profligate consumerism. e.g. Replacing your lounge suite not because it is worn out but the colour is wrong for the six monthly redecorate which also didn't need doing.

Long term we don't benefit from low oil prices. Income for countries virtually wholly dependent on oil revenues like Russia is drying up. This upsets inflation, exchange rates. Iran is now going to be flooding an already saturated market with a further million barrels a day until they break the nuclear rules and have sanctions imposed again. Pension funds rely on the performance of stock market commodities. 

Having said that life goes on. What specifically concerns you about the weak state of Spain?


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## Chopera (Apr 22, 2013)

nimtree said:


> Just a little bit concerned about the weak state of Spain and the current state of global economic markets, falling prices of steel and oil.
> 
> It may make Spain's recovery slower and tougher...
> 
> Any thoughts?


Spain is a net importer of oil so falling prices should help. Of course a global crash won't help, but these things always play out in unpredictable ways.


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## Desiato (Jun 1, 2015)

Reading a few articles yesterday, the sub €30 a barrel could set of another worldwide financial crash that would make 2008 look like the warm up act. The US Fracking away to their hearts content has had a big part to play in this latest financial doom and gloom and the Iranians about to flood the market just pushes it closer to the edge. Interesting times ahead...to put it mildly.


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## Elyles (Aug 30, 2012)

Desiato said:


> Reading a few articles yesterday, the sub €30 a barrel could set of another worldwide financial crash that would make 2008 look like the warm up act. The US Fracking away to their hearts content has had a big part to play in this latest financial doom and gloom and the Iranians about to flood the market just pushes it closer to the edge. Interesting times ahead...to put it mildly.


 To say the least to someone who obviously doesn't understand the US economy-- The US has long relied on oil imports and been held hostage by Middle Eastern producers. The fluctuation in oil prices has caused nothing in regards to any financial crisis, especially in the US. What caused the global financial crisis spiraling was the lack of controls on Wall Street. If the Iranians flood the market it will raise prices.


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## Elyles (Aug 30, 2012)

Since my dollars are going into my Spanish bank, I am fine with it. The Euro and dollar keep creeping towards parity. It just makes my dollar go further here in retirement.


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## Pesky Wesky (May 10, 2009)

nimtree said:


> Just a little bit concerned about the weak state of Spain and the current state of global economic markets, falling prices of steel and oil.
> 
> It may make Spain's recovery slower and tougher...
> 
> Any thoughts?


In 2010/ 11 experts in papers like Cinco Días and Expansión were predicting that it would take 10 years for Spain to recover... There were references on the forum, but I can't find them.


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## mrypg9 (Apr 26, 2008)

I'm not sure why we should worry any more about Spain at this point in time than at any time in the last twenty years. And anyway, what can we do about it...
Spain's problems are largely structural. Few lessons seem to have been learned from the spectacular property crash of a few years back as it seems as if the build/bust scenario is repeating itself again.
The much- touted decrease in unemployment is hollow as most of the new 'jobs ' are unskilled and temporary, indeed of very short duration, some lasting days....unbelievable.
The current political instability has pushed up yields on Treasury bonds and there seems little chance of avoiding fresh elections.
The UK isn't in a much better situation. The amount of household debt is truly staggering. Any increase in the number of people finding work is as hollow as in Spain with a large percentage being temporary or zero hour contract jobs.
Until we get a set of politicians in Spain and the UK who reject the neo- liberal laissez- faire casino economy we shall continue to stagger along from boomto bust to boom again.
Well, boom for some, that is. The top one percent whose wealth has grown exponentially while the rest of us have seen incomes stagnate and savings eroded by low interest rates and quantitive easing aka printing money.


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## Desiato (Jun 1, 2015)

Elyles said:


> To say the least to someone who obviously doesn't understand the US economy-- The US has long relied on oil imports and been held hostage by Middle Eastern producers. The fluctuation in oil prices has caused nothing in regards to any financial crisis, especially in the US. What caused the global financial crisis spiraling was the lack of controls on Wall Street. If the Iranians flood the market it will raise prices.


This article on the BBC Global stock markets fall amid oil rout - BBC News says:

_The downwards move came after oil prices continued to slide, with the price Brent Crude at one point down 5.2% to $27.28 a barrel, before easing back to stand at 3% down. The price is around a 12-year low.

Meanwhile, US crude plunged to its lowest since May 2003, sinking 6.6% to $26.59, but later edging back to about 4% lower.

*The oil price has plummeted 75% since mid-2014 as oversupply, mainly due to US shale oil flooding the market, has driven down the cost of the commodity.*

At the same time, demand has fallen because of a slowdown in economic growth in China and Europe.

The world's energy watchdog warned on Tuesday that the market could "drown in oversupply"._

This article Falling oil prices: Who are the winners and losers? - BBC News also on the beeb mentions "_weak demand in many countries due to insipid economic growth, coupled with surging US production_." 

This article A Complex Story: Global Impact of Low Oil Prices | Investopedia mentions the two sides of the US coin, _Though the US is the second largest importer of oil, it is also the second largest producer of oil and there has been a significant increase in US oil production over the past 5 years, mainly due to the use of newer technologies such as fracking._

Sorry but the US can't wash it's hands of the upcoming crisis.


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## Elyles (Aug 30, 2012)

Desiato said:


> This article on the BBC Global stock markets fall amid oil rout - BBC News says: The downwards move came after oil prices continued to slide, with the price Brent Crude at one point down 5.2% to $27.28 a barrel, before easing back to stand at 3% down. The price is around a 12-year low. Meanwhile, US crude plunged to its lowest since May 2003, sinking 6.6% to $26.59, but later edging back to about 4% lower. The oil price has plummeted 75% since mid-2014 as oversupply, mainly due to US shale oil flooding the market, has driven down the cost of the commodity. At the same time, demand has fallen because of a slowdown in economic growth in China and Europe. The world's energy watchdog warned on Tuesday that the market could "drown in oversupply". This article Falling oil prices: Who are the winners and losers? - BBC News also on the beeb mentions "weak demand in many countries due to insipid economic growth, coupled with surging US production." This article A Complex Story: Global Impact of Low Oil Prices | Investopedia mentions the two sides of the US coin, Though the US is the second largest importer of oil, it is also the second largest producer of oil and there has been a significant increase in US oil production over the past 5 years, mainly due to the use of newer technologies such as fracking. Sorry but the US can't wash it's hands of the upcoming crisis.


 the public likes the low oil prices and the low prices won't affect it's economy since it produces a lot. I grew up around a grandfather in the oil business in Texas. In reality, the US needs gas prices like the EU but that will never happen. It is about time that the US stood on it's own, freer from foreign oil. It can do nothing but support the US economic growth.


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## olivefarmer (Oct 16, 2012)

Elyles said:


> To say the least to someone who obviously doesn't understand the US economy-- The US has long relied on oil imports and been held hostage by Middle Eastern producers. The fluctuation in oil prices has caused nothing in regards to any financial crisis, especially in the US. What caused the global financial crisis spiraling was the lack of controls on Wall Street. If the Iranians flood the market it will raise prices.


Interesting viewpoint. . I can't see how you think yet more oil (Iranian) on the market will cause the price to go up! It is currently so low because no oil producing country is prepared to blink and stop producing. As I said earlier a number of producers have economies in a bad way.


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## Desiato (Jun 1, 2015)

Elyles said:


> the public likes the low oil prices and the low prices won't affect it's economy since it produces a lot. I grew up around a grandfather in the oil business in Texas. In reality, the US needs gas prices like the EU but that will never happen. It is about time that the US stood on it's own, freer from foreign oil. It can do nothing but support the US economic growth.


The public are the only winners, for now. The loses are the countries who are going bankrupt due to heavy losses caused by the low oil prices and that will have a knock on effect triggering a new worldwide financial crisis. US economic growth at everybody else's expense does seem to ring a bell. Not sure you have a full grasp of what is going on here Elyles but then again you presumed that I obviously don't understand the US economy.


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## Elyles (Aug 30, 2012)

Desiato said:


> The public are the only winners, for now. The loses are the countries who are going bankrupt due to heavy losses caused by the low oil prices and that will have a knock on effect triggering a new worldwide financial crisis. US economic growth at everybody else's expense does seem to ring a bell. Not sure you have a full grasp of what is going on here Elyles but then again you presumed that I obviously don't understand the US economy.


 Oil is not sufficient enough to cause a Global financial crisis. The last one was caused by financial corruption. There are always winners and losers who change shoes every so often. I am married to an economist who managed a large energy firm in the US for many years and my brother in law is an international economist who teaches at Indiana State university. I hear more than I Am comfortable with. The US may be fracking and this can last many years with all the Christmas trees ( a phrase for the apparatus over a capped well that no longer produces) True, it may cause some ripples but energy is cyclical. I was a psychologist, managing mental health programs for many years and generally could have cared less about the economy unless it took the roof from over my head, and it never has. I quit betting on oil in the 90's when I lost $50,000 in one week when the market crashed. I was also in Texas and saw firsthand the financial devistation. But today, Houston is booming again. Thus, the cyclical nature of energy trading. I am more interested in watching the idiot circus dealing with the US presidential election.


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## Chopera (Apr 22, 2013)

Desiato said:


> This article on the BBC Global stock markets fall amid oil rout - BBC News says:
> 
> _The downwards move came after oil prices continued to slide, with the price Brent Crude at one point down 5.2% to $27.28 a barrel, before easing back to stand at 3% down. The price is around a 12-year low.
> 
> ...


Sorry but are you really saying that low oil prices are going to cause a global economic crisis? How does that work?

And even if they somehow did cause a global slump, US shale production is not responsible. The Saudis turned the taps on to try to drive the shale producers out of business.


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## Desiato (Jun 1, 2015)

Chopera said:


> Sorry but are you really saying that low oil prices are going to cause a global economic crisis? How does that work?
> 
> And even if they somehow did cause a global slump, US shale production is not responsible. The Saudis turned the taps on to try to drive the shale producers out of business.


I'm not saying it, the economists are. Read the articles, they explain how low oil prices are causes financial strain on countries heavily indebted to oil. You can keep saying "US shale production is not responsible" all you like but if the experts say it is one of the main reasons, I'm inclined to agree with them.


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## mrypg9 (Apr 26, 2008)

Desiato said:


> I'm not saying it, the economists are. Read the articles, they explain how low oil prices are causes financial strain on countries heavily indebted to oil. You can keep saying "US shale production is not responsible" all you like but if the experts say it is one of the main reasons, I'm inclined to agree with them.


If countries are 'heavily indebted' to oil, low prices will significantly cut their import costs.


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## Pazcat (Mar 24, 2010)

Like every other crisis, recession, crash and whatever else you can think of I have no reason to suspect my life will be effected by any of this. 
Life went on then as it will now and as then I fully expect to see no real change in anything as is the norm. 

I just read this article...
Market turmoil: How does it affect me? - BBC News

And I know there is more to it but basically only goes to reinforce my point, nothing in there troubles me in the slightest and if it is something that may trouble you then good luck to you as you are already better off than I would guess as a minimum than two thirds of the world population.

Chep fuel at least, and to be honest that isn't important to me either.


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## Desiato (Jun 1, 2015)

Elyles said:


> Oil is not sufficient enough to cause a Global financial crisis. The last one was caused by financial corruption.


A little too simplistic for me I'm afraid. If stupid Americans buying houses with sub prime mortgages that they could not afford, sold to them by commission hungry real estate agents who did not give a damn about their clients losing their homes when they defaulted and the debts wrapped up into worthless packages for corrupt Wall Street traders to flog to unsuspecting buyers can trigger a 7 year financial crisis, the massive fall in the price of the black gold that greases the wheels of all the powerful nations on Earth is more than capable of starting the next one. As much as I'd like to save your post and come back to you and say "HA! Told ya so!" I think I'll pass as I cannot for the life of me find the posts from people saying "humans have no effect on the planet and there is no such thing as global warming" so I know I'd only lose it anyway. 

Knowing lots of people who should know what they are talking about is all well and good but denying the evidence of what is actually happening doesn't help your cause I'm afraid but as long as you're alright Elyles and the exchange rate suits you I guess that's the main thing, for you anyway.


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## Chopera (Apr 22, 2013)

Desiato said:


> I'm not saying it, the economists are. Read the articles, they explain how low oil prices are causes financial strain on countries heavily indebted to oil. You can keep saying "US shale production is not responsible" all you like but if the experts say it is one of the main reasons, I'm inclined to agree with them.


I haven't read any so called experts saying this at all. Even in the links you posted above. The only countries to be affected by falling oil prices are big net exporters, whose economies are entirely reliant on oil production such as Russia, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. All of which are complete basket cases whose economies have no affect on the global economy at all. If they go down they'll take absolutely nobody with them apart from Ferrari dealers and Mayfair estate agents. Bring it on.


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## Desiato (Jun 1, 2015)

mrypg9 said:


> If countries are 'heavily indebted' to oil, low prices will significantly cut their import costs.


Did you read this one Mary? A Complex Story: Global Impact of Low Oil Prices | Investopedia It does cover the consequences of how low oil prices affects those selling it.


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## Pesky Wesky (May 10, 2009)

Pazcat said:


> Like every other crisis, recession, crash and whatever else you can think of I have no reason to suspect my life will be effected by any of this.
> Life went on then as it will now and as then I fully expect to see no real change in anything as is the norm.
> 
> I just read this article...
> ...


Maybe your life won't be affected - mine was, not drastically, but yes I was affected directly. My husband's salary was lowered twice I think it was and "extra" payments (he is paid his salary in 14 payments, not 12 but the two "extra" are not really extra as it's just that the annual salary is divided into 14, not 12) were not paid for 2 or 3 years. They are now being paid back. I had to charge clients less and two companies where I worked went out of business. University fees for my daughter however went up. Normal bods have very much been affected by the crisis starting in 2008 in Spain


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## Desiato (Jun 1, 2015)

Chopera said:


> I haven't read any so called experts saying this at all. Even in the links you posted above. The only countries to be affected by falling oil prices are big net exporters, whose economies are entirely reliant on oil production such as Russia, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. All of which are complete basket cases whose economies have no affect on the global economy at all. If they go down they'll take absolutely nobody with them apart from Ferrari dealers and Mayfair estate agents. Bring it on.


I only posted the first three links that specifically mentioned US Fracking and how it was driving the price down by flooding the market. I read a number of other articles that painted a gloomy picture and are easily searchable. Interestingly I was chatting to my wife the other day about how safe we (as a people) feel in our little corner of civilisation but in reality, we are in the minority. As you say, many countries are basket cases and the list of places not to visit (due to civil unrest/police corruption etc) outside of Europe is growing daily. I'm not a doom monger hoping for the end of the world, I'm doing my best to enjoy every day as it comes but when you read about germ warfare, how antibiotics are failing, religious fanatics spreading their hate, how corporations have a stranglehold over the world, chemtrails (what are they really?), the plight of the bees, climate change....to name just a few, you start to think it's only a matter of time before one of them rocks us from our lethargic complacency but like you, I'm enjoying the spoils of our western society and (fingers crossed) long may it continue.


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## Desiato (Jun 1, 2015)

Chopera said:


> I haven't read any so called experts saying this at all. Even in the links you posted above. The only countries to be affected by falling oil prices are big net exporters, whose economies are entirely reliant on oil production such as Russia, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. All of which are complete basket cases whose economies have no affect on the global economy at all. If they go down they'll take absolutely nobody with them apart from Ferrari dealers and Mayfair estate agents. Bring it on.


I don't know much about Venezuela but I'm pretty sure if Russia and Saudi Arabia fail we'll know all about it. Russia will have no qualms about walking into neighbouring countries and taking their oil (well, if it works for the US?) and Saudi Arabia, the US's paid up peace keepers in the middle east, will trigger all manner of hell if they can no longer keep Iran and the other gulf states in check. If you look at history in century chunks rather than decades, things are changing so fast for the human race that it could get very ugly for a lot of us much sooner than we think.


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## Sirtravelot (Jul 20, 2011)

Folks, please.

Crack open a nice, cold beer, and enjoy the decline.


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## Isobella (Oct 16, 2014)

Desiato said:


> I only posted the first three links that specifically mentioned US Fracking and how it was driving the price down by flooding the market. I read a number of other articles that painted a gloomy picture and are easily searchable. Interestingly I was chatting to my wife the other day about how safe we (as a people) feel in our little corner of civilisation but in reality, we are in the minority. As you say, many countries are basket cases and the list of places not to visit (due to civil unrest/police corruption etc) outside of Europe is growing daily. I'm not a doom monger hoping for the end of the world, I'm doing my best to enjoy every day as it comes but when you read about germ warfare, how antibiotics are failing, religious fanatics spreading their hate, how corporations have a stranglehold over the world, chemtrails (what are they really?), the plight of the bees, climate change....to name just a few, you start to think it's only a matter of time before one of them rocks us from our lethargic complacency but like you, I'm enjoying the spoils of our western society and (fingers crossed) long may it continue.


You don't have to believe everything you read you know Economists are like weather forecasters, mostly wrong but revered on the odd occasions they get it right. Not many predicted the last crash.


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## mrypg9 (Apr 26, 2008)

Desiato said:


> Did you read this one Mary? A Complex Story: Global Impact of Low Oil Prices | Investopedia It does cover the consequences of how low oil prices affects those selling it.


Not clear what you meant by 'heavily indebted'.......obviously low prices will impact adversely on producers and sellers but I assumed you meant importers.
Any fall in Russian oil revenues will be bad news for Germany.


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## mrypg9 (Apr 26, 2008)

Pesky Wesky said:


> Normal bods have very much been affected by the crisis starting in 2008 in Spain


Unemployment went from around 7% to almost 27% so I'd say yes, quite a few people were affected.
Badly.


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## Desiato (Jun 1, 2015)

mrypg9 said:


> Not clear what you meant by 'heavily indebted'.......obviously low prices will impact adversely on producers and sellers but I assumed you meant importers.
> Any fall in Russian oil revenues will be bad news for Germany.


Yeah I can see where the confusion came from. I had been reading about how certain countries invested heavily in oil production and having borrowed the money, couldn't afford to pay is back. The falling oil prices are reducing the revenue of the producers so in my mind I was thinking about the oil producers.


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## The Skipper (Nov 26, 2014)

mrypg9 said:


> I'm not sure why we should worry any more about Spain at this point in time than at any time in the last twenty years. And anyway, what can we do about it...
> Spain's problems are largely structural. Few lessons seem to have been learned from the spectacular property crash of a few years back as it seems as if the build/bust scenario is repeating itself again.
> The much- touted decrease in unemployment is hollow as most of the new 'jobs ' are unskilled and temporary, indeed of very short duration, some lasting days....unbelievable.
> The current political instability has pushed up yields on Treasury bonds and there seems little chance of avoiding fresh elections.
> ...


Spain needs to offer a job to Gordon Brown ... he is famous for putting an end to boom and bust and saving the world. A good dose of Socialism is what the country needs (ok, only joking!).


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## Elyles (Aug 30, 2012)

Desiato said:


> A little too simplistic for me I'm afraid. If stupid Americans buying houses with sub prime mortgages that they could not afford, sold to them by commission hungry real estate agents who did not give a damn about their clients losing their homes when they defaulted and the debts wrapped up into worthless packages for corrupt Wall Street traders to flog to unsuspecting buyers can trigger a 7 year financial crisis, the massive fall in the price of the black gold that greases the wheels of all the powerful nations on Earth is more than capable of starting the next one. As much as I'd like to save your post and come back to you and say "HA! Told ya so!" I think I'll pass as I cannot for the life of me find the posts from people saying "humans have no effect on the planet and there is no such thing as global warming" so I know I'd only lose it anyway. Knowing lots of people who should know what they are talking about is all well and good but denying the evidence of what is actually happening doesn't help your cause I'm afraid but as long as you're alright Elyles and the exchange rate suits you I guess that's the main thing, for you anyway.


 Not my post! I just dislike you blaming it on Americans. Like you, I am an expat living in Spain and the exchange rate directly affects me more than it does you. It took me a while to get over the effect of fracking on our environment.


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## Elyles (Aug 30, 2012)

Elyles said:


> Not my post! I just dislike you blaming it on Americans. Like you, I am an expat living in Spain and the exchange rate directly affects me more than it does you. It took me a while to get over the effect of fracking on our environment. Like you, I have opinions and you Brits probably aren't familiar with the analogy about them. And if you are: If the shoe fits, wear it. You truly simplified the effect of the American financial crisis causing an international financial crisis. Perhaps you should start investing in oil, because the value will rise significantly. Just get off your bandwagon and quit blaming America. The one link you provided is not sufficient to back it up. True, fracking is a problem, but only one of many. Not only do you not understand American economics, you don't understand the energy business internationally. I have no cause except to live here in peace.


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## Chopera (Apr 22, 2013)

Desiato said:


> I only posted the first three links that specifically mentioned US Fracking and how it was driving the price down by flooding the market. I read a number of other articles that painted a gloomy picture and are easily searchable. Interestingly I was chatting to my wife the other day about how safe we (as a people) feel in our little corner of civilisation but in reality, we are in the minority. As you say, many countries are basket cases and the list of places not to visit (due to civil unrest/police corruption etc) outside of Europe is growing daily. I'm not a doom monger hoping for the end of the world, I'm doing my best to enjoy every day as it comes but when you read about germ warfare, how antibiotics are failing, religious fanatics spreading their hate, how corporations have a stranglehold over the world, chemtrails (what are they really?), the plight of the bees, climate change....to name just a few, you start to think it's only a matter of time before one of them rocks us from our lethargic complacency but like you, I'm enjoying the spoils of our western society and (fingers crossed) long may it continue.


You wrote that low oil prices (which you blamed on the US) were going to cause the upcoming crisis.

I'm still waiting for you to explain how this works. How low energy prices are meant to be bad for the global economy. Because if that's true then why the hell are we bothering trying to find cheaper energy, and to make more efficient use of it? Because according to your logic what we really need is higher energy prices to rescue the global economy!

It's no use telling me to google articles because I know for a fact that nobody will support what you're saying. Yes of course there are other issues related to the environment and possibly geopolitical outcomes that may result from lower oil prices as well, but you specifically said that low oil prices are going to cause the upcoming economic crisis, and that is just plain ridiculous.


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## gus-lopez (Jan 4, 2010)

Desiato said:


> A little too simplistic for me I'm afraid. If stupid Americans buying houses with sub prime mortgages that they could not afford, sold to them by commission hungry real estate agents who did not give a damn about their clients losing their homes when they defaulted and the debts wrapped up into worthless packages for corrupt Wall Street traders to flog to unsuspecting buyers can trigger a 7 year financial crisis, the massive fall in the price of the black gold that greases the wheels of all the powerful nations on Earth is more than capable of starting the next one. As much as I'd like to save your post and come back to you and say "HA! Told ya so!" I think I'll pass as I cannot for the life of me find the posts from people saying "humans have no effect on the planet and there is no such thing as global warming" so I know I'd only lose it anyway.
> 
> Knowing lots of people who should know what they are talking about is all well and good but denying the evidence of what is actually happening doesn't help your cause I'm afraid but as long as you're alright Elyles and the exchange rate suits you I guess that's the main thing, for you anyway.


By all accounts the "month on month " booming car sales are on the back of non-recourse car loans. You can't make the stuff up. :lol:


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## gus-lopez (Jan 4, 2010)

Chopera said:


> You wrote that low oil prices (which you blamed on the US) were going to cause the upcoming crisis.
> 
> I'm still waiting for you to explain how this works. How low energy prices are meant to be bad for the global economy. Because if that's true then why the hell are we bothering trying to find cheaper energy, and to make more efficient use of it? Because according to your logic what we really need is higher energy prices to rescue the global economy!
> 
> It's no use telling me to google articles because I know for a fact that nobody will support what you're saying. Yes of course there are other issues related to the environment and possibly geopolitical outcomes that may result from lower oil prices as well, but you specifically said that low oil prices are going to cause the upcoming economic crisis, and that is just plain ridiculous.


I think you will find that it is the oil being sold at these low barrel prices which is in effect uneconomic for many countries & being sold at less than cost & is basically could bankrupt many countries. Russia needs a barrel price of around $100 to make their stuff profitable to get out the ground. I see the bottom fell out the rouble once again today.


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## Desiato (Jun 1, 2015)

Elyles said:


> Elyles said:
> 
> 
> > Not my post! I just dislike you blaming it on Americans. Like you, I am an expat living in Spain and the exchange rate directly affects me more than it does you. It took me a while to get over the effect of fracking on our environment. Like you, I have opinions and you Brits probably aren't familiar with the analogy about them. And if you are: If the shoe fits, wear it. You truly simplified the effect of the American financial crisis causing an international financial crisis. Perhaps you should start investing in oil, because the value will rise significantly. Just get off your bandwagon and quit blaming America. The one link you provided is not sufficient to back it up. True, fracking is a problem, but only one of many. Not only do you not understand American economics, you don't understand the energy business internationally. I have no cause except to live here in peace.
> ...


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## Desiato (Jun 1, 2015)

Chopera said:


> You wrote that low oil prices (which you blamed on the US) were going to cause the upcoming crisis.
> 
> I'm still waiting for you to explain how this works. How low energy prices are meant to be bad for the global economy. Because if that's true then why the hell are we bothering trying to find cheaper energy, and to make more efficient use of it? Because according to your logic what we really need is higher energy prices to rescue the global economy!
> 
> It's no use telling me to google articles because I know for a fact that nobody will support what you're saying. Yes of course there are other issues related to the environment and possibly geopolitical outcomes that may result from lower oil prices as well, but you specifically said that low oil prices are going to cause the upcoming economic crisis, and that is just plain ridiculous.


Who said low energy prices? I said low oil prices, you've gone off down a different track there. And "By my logic we need higher energy prices to rescue the global economy?" No, you've done it again, I've suggested nothing of the sort.

You know for a fact that nobody will support my claim that low oil prices can trigger an economic crisis? Please could you post the link to this fact as I'd be very interested in reading it. I did a quick google for you, here are a few links I found at random. There's plenty more but these are quite detailed so cover most of the issues causing the low price of oil and how they effect global economies and not in a good way. 

Whoâ€™s afraid of cheap oil? | The Economist and The Recession Caused by Low Oil Prices - WSJ and http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/the-oil-crash-of-2016-has-the-big-banks-running-scared


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## Williams2 (Sep 15, 2013)

Desiato said:


> I only posted the first three links that specifically mentioned US Fracking and how it was driving the price down by flooding the market. I read a number of other articles that painted a gloomy picture and are easily searchable. Interestingly I was chatting to my wife the other day about how safe we (as a people) feel in our little corner of civilisation but in reality, we are in the minority. As you say, many countries are basket cases and the list of places not to visit (due to civil unrest/police corruption etc) outside of Europe is growing daily. I'm not a doom monger hoping for the end of the world, I'm doing my best to enjoy every day as it comes but when you read about germ warfare, how antibiotics are failing, religious fanatics spreading their hate, how corporations have a stranglehold over the world, chemtrails (what are they really?), the plight of the bees, climate change....to name just a few, you start to think it's only a matter of time before one of them rocks us from our lethargic complacency but like you, I'm enjoying the spoils of our western society and (fingers crossed) long may it continue.


Tell me were we safe before before the Credit crunch and the sub prime crisis of 2008 and the present Economic crisis brought on by the over supply of oil and decline in commodity prices - that some Analysts say has brought us to
the brink of a spiraling Financial & Economic Armageddon.
What does a Financial and Economic Armageddon look like - is it Greece ?
As for the threat from global warming climate change and religious fanatics, I ask you !!!

*This is nothing compared to what the baby boomer generation of the late
1950's 60's & 1970's had to put up with - namely Mutually Assured Destruction
during the Superpower standoff of the Cold War.* 

No doubt the Americans growing up during this period will remember the Duck and Cover films, just as much as the British were alarmed by the Protect & Survive Civil Defense films.

I really do think that when measuring whats scary in the world today against the grim dark days of the Cuban Missile Crisis. 
The Cuban Missile crisis of 1962 along with the Able Archer crisis of 1983 comes out tops.

For those who would like a reminder of the Able Archer scare of 1983, tune into the excellent 
Channel 4 Spy Series on Sunday night called, Deutschland 83. 

Deutschland 83 - Cold War Spy series, with English subtitles


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## Dionysus (Jan 4, 2016)

*Agree..*



Elyles said:


> To say the least to someone who obviously doesn't understand the US economy-- The US has long relied on oil imports and been held hostage by Middle Eastern producers. The fluctuation in oil prices has caused nothing in regards to any financial crisis, especially in the US. What caused the global financial crisis spiraling was the lack of controls on Wall Street. If the Iranians flood the market it will raise prices.





Chopera said:


> Sorry but are you really saying that low oil prices are going to cause a global economic crisis? How does that work?
> 
> And even if they somehow did cause a global slump, US shale production is not responsible. *The Saudis turned the taps on to try to drive the shale producers out of business.*


The price of oil is controlled by the speculative market, not by the amount of oil available, or glut. Because of what Saudi Arabia has attempted to do, and has had some severe consequences, speculators have put a price on what they think the oil is worth. When this happens, you have countries with tankers of oil just waiting it out, anchored, for the price to improve before they offload it for refining. So you end up where we are at. That is a simplified answer of course, but in a nutshell, they are holding out for a better price. Additionally, the main refiner of sour heavy crude is the US, many countries from Latin America ship their crude to be processed in the US (Texas). It is not cheap to build, operate and maintain an oil refinery, so there are not many to keep up with the supply, another reason why there is more product available at this time.

One thing Saudi Arabia did not consider, nor could have known at the time they decided to try to shutdown the fracking competition, is that the US would one day resume selling oil to the global market. Many don't know this, but the US has not been able to sell like other OPEC countries for about 50 years after the oil embargo of the 70s. That was ended last year, so the effects will begin to unfold in 2016. The US is not an OPEC member, BTW.

Saudi Arabia is now borrowing to meet its current obligations, other Emirate countries are imposing taxes where none existed a year ago. Change is in the air. Instead of sending their billions of dollars to the Middle East, many of those dollars will now stay home in the US. We shall see.

For the record, I currently am employed, and celebrated my 35th year of employment with an oil company in Houston last October. I've only been to one interview my entire adult life.


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## Elyles (Aug 30, 2012)

Dionysus said:


> The price of oil is controlled by the speculative market, not by the amount of oil available, or glut. Because of what Saudi Arabia has attempted to do, and has had some severe consequences, speculators have put a price on what they think the oil is worth. When this happens, you have countries with tankers of oil just waiting it out, anchored, for the price to improve before they offload it for refining. So you end up where we are at. That is a simplified answer of course, but in a nutshell, they are holding out for a better price. Additionally, the main refiner of sour heavy crude is the US, many countries from Latin America ship their crude to be processed in the US (Texas). It is not cheap to build, operate and maintain an oil refinery, so there are not many to keep up with the supply, another reason why there is more product available at this time. One thing Saudi Arabia did not consider, nor could have known at the time they decided to try to shutdown the fracking competition, is that the US would one day resume selling oil to the global market. Many don't know this, but the US has not been able to sell like other OPEC countries for about 50 years after the oil embargo of the 70s. That was ended last year, so the effects will begin to unfold in 2016. The US is not an OPEC member, BTW. Saudi Arabia is now borrowing to meet its current obligations, other Emirate countries are imposing taxes where none existed a year ago. Change is in the air. Instead of sending their billions of dollars to the Middle East, many of those dollars will now stay home in the US. We shall see. For the record, I currently am employed, and celebrated my 35th year of employment with an oil company in Houston last October. I've only been to one interview my entire adult life.


 Good points! 35 years with the same firm is amazing. Thanks for sharing correct info on here. On this post I have been called Anti-Brit and a Texan. I am neither but now just an expat in Spain. Two of my alma maters are around Houston but I finished my career in the mountains of Wyoming.


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## Elyles (Aug 30, 2012)

Elyles said:


> Good points! 35 years with the same firm is amazing. Thanks for sharing correct info on here. On this post I have been called Anti-Brit and a Texan. I am neither but now just an expat in Spain. Two of my alma maters are around Houston but I finished my career in the mountains of Wyoming. My family built Oak Ridge North across from the Woodlands in the 70's when George Mitchell was just spreading his wings. We deer hunted in the Woodlands before any houses were there. This was when 5000 people a week were coming there to work with oil companies. My wife got there in the early 90's and became a VP of El Paso Energy then later took a sweet package and bailed. Can't really say I miss Houston much now but it is truly an international city.


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## Horlics (Sep 27, 2011)

Elyles said:


> Elyles said:
> 
> 
> > ....Just get off your bandwagon and quit blaming America. /QUOTE]
> ...


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## Desiato (Jun 1, 2015)

Elyles said:


> ....Just get off your bandwagon and quit blaming America. /QUOTE]
> 
> I didn't realise he was on a bandwagon as being so would suggest he has company, and I think he was alone in blaming America so far.


My words were "_had a big part to play_" which is not the same as blaming America. I then quoted a piece from the BBC which included*The oil price has plummeted 75% since mid-2014 as oversupply, mainly due to US shale oil flooding the market, has driven down the cost of the commodity.*". I try to stay away from making unsubstantiated claims and prefer link to where I have gleaned the info so whilst I'd like to take the credit, I'm afraid I'm just the messenger. 

On a side note, Saudi Arabia over producing may have inadvertently caused problems for the US Frackers but their sights may have been closer to home? 

https://www.firstthings.com/blogs/f...oil-its-not-about-south-dakota-its-about-isis

And just to clarify, I'm just putting this link here to add to the debate, it does not necessarily represent my view so to anyone tempted to say "he said the Saudi's...", again, I'm just the messenger.


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## skip o (Aug 1, 2011)

I feel like Spain could do a lot more to help itself. Compared to other countries, it is much more expensive to try to start a small business here. And for an economy that is relying more an more on tourism, I'd say the siesta, lack of posted business hours, lack of adherence to posted business hours... This all makes it harder for people to spend their money here. This problem is unique to my region, but it makes no sense for tourist info to be posted exclusively in Catalan (which is often the case). If people here are happy with 20%+ unemployment, then they can do keep on practicing whatever business practices they want. But if they want to want to improve their situation, maybe they should change their business practices.


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## Elyles (Aug 30, 2012)

skip o said:


> I feel like Spain could do a lot more to help itself. Compared to other countries, it is much more expensive to try to start a small business here. And for an economy that is relying more an more on tourism, I'd say the siesta, lack of posted business hours, lack of adherence to posted business hours... This all makes it harder for people to spend their money here. This problem is unique to my region, but it makes no sense for tourist info to be posted exclusively in Catalan (which is often the case). If people here are happy with 20%+ unemployment, then they can do keep on practicing whatever business practices they want. But if they want to want to improve their situation, maybe they should change their business practices.


 Maybe so Skip, no tiene sentido.


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## Chopera (Apr 22, 2013)

Desiato said:


> Who said low energy prices? I said low oil prices, you've gone off down a different track there. And "By my logic we need higher energy prices to rescue the global economy?" No, you've done it again, I've suggested nothing of the sort.
> 
> You know for a fact that nobody will support my claim that low oil prices can trigger an economic crisis? Please could you post the link to this fact as I'd be very interested in reading it. I did a quick google for you, here are a few links I found at random. There's plenty more but these are quite detailed so cover most of the issues causing the low price of oil and how they effect global economies and not in a good way.
> 
> Whoâ€™s afraid of cheap oil? | The Economist and The Recession Caused by Low Oil Prices - WSJ and The Oil Crash Of 2016 Has The Big Banks Running Scared


From your articles:

Whoâ€™s afraid of cheap oil? | The Economist 

This one at no point claims that cheap oil is bad for the global economy. It mentions that there will be losers. Of course there will, as I already mentioned as well. And it mentions that the abrupt fall in markets might cause a shock in the short term, maybe defaults as a result of the fragile economy after the last crash, but for that you can blame the last crash rather than cheap oil. But the article does not say that the overall effect of cheap oil will be worse for the global economy.

The Recession Caused by Low Oil Prices - WSJ

I can't tread that one as I don't subscribe to wsj

The Oil Crash Of 2016 Has The Big Banks Running Scared

Again this article talks about the problems for big banks as a result of cheap oil, and that may have a knock-on effect, but it does not say that the overall effect of cheap oil will be bad for the global economy. Last time we had to bail out the banks because they were too big to fail, this time round we've been told that problem has been resolved. Let's see - but if the financial system is still so screwed up that banks need to be bailed out then there's your problem right there. Nothing to do with cheap oil.


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## Chopera (Apr 22, 2013)

gus-lopez said:


> I think you will find that it is the oil being sold at these low barrel prices which is in effect uneconomic for many countries & being sold at less than cost & is basically could bankrupt many countries. Russia needs a barrel price of around $100 to make their stuff profitable to get out the ground. I see the bottom fell out the rouble once again today.


Yes but my point is that the winners outweigh the losers.


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## Dionysus (Jan 4, 2016)

Elyles said:


> Good points! 35 years with the same firm is amazing. Thanks for sharing correct info on here. On this post I have been called Anti-Brit and a Texan. I am neither but now just an expat in Spain. Two of my alma maters are around Houston but I finished my career in the mountains of Wyoming. My family built Oak Ridge North across from the Woodlands in the 70's when George Mitchell was just spreading his wings. We deer hunted in the Woodlands before any houses were there. This was when 5000 people a week were coming there to work with oil companies. My wife got there in the early 90's and became a VP of El Paso Energy then later took a sweet package and bailed. Can't really say I miss Houston much now but it is truly an international city.


Thanks Elyles, I do realize that 35 years with one company is a rarity. Many of the people who work for me weren't even born when I started my career, so I feel older by the minute each time I see their faces. 

You can still shoot deer in the Woodlands, but probably not a good idea now that the Woodlands has grown so much. Well, shooting a firearm in a city is not legal either.  Exxon Mobile recently consolidated all of their Houston offices into one campus just north of the Woodlands.


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## nimtree (Sep 29, 2015)

olivefarmer said:


> What specifically concerns you about the weak state of Spain?


Well the concern is about my business. I have a wildlife photography business , which relies on Western European customers I take with me to India to photograph Tigers and Native wildlife.

If the economy goes down, people cut back on holidays and stay put where they are, not good for any business really.


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## Horlics (Sep 27, 2011)

skip o said:


> I feel like Spain could do a lot more to help itself. Compared to other countries, it is much more expensive to try to start a small business here. And for an economy that is relying more an more on tourism, I'd say the siesta, lack of posted business hours, lack of adherence to posted business hours... This all makes it harder for people to spend their money here. This problem is unique to my region, but it makes no sense for tourist info to be posted exclusively in Catalan (which is often the case). If people here are happy with 20%+ unemployment, then they can do keep on practicing whatever business practices they want. But if they want to want to improve their situation, maybe they should change their business practices.


I was in Barcelona last year and found everything to be open all of the time and had no trouble whatsoever spending money there at any time of day. I can only assume you are talking about other parts of Spain, in which case I hope that it doesn't abolish the siesta and extend, publish and stick to longer/reliable business hours, because then it won't be Spain any more.

I was horribly disappointed with Barcelona last year and couldn't care less if I never see it again. I suppose it has suffered from progress.

Re the Catalan issue, don't start me off!


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## Elyles (Aug 30, 2012)

Dionysus said:


> Thanks Elyles, I do realize that 35 years with one company is a rarity. Many of the people who work for me weren't even born when I started my career, so I feel older by the minute each time I see their faces. You can still shoot deer in the Woodlands, but probably not a good idea now that the Woodlands has grown so much. Well, shooting a firearm in a city is not legal either.  Exxon Mobile recently consolidated all of their Houston offices into one campus just north of the Woodlands.


 Yeah, Exxon Mobil had built and moved in some personnel a couple of years ago when my mother moved out of the area after 40+ years. It was really starting to be a madhouse then. I remember my father telling the developer of the now defunct Greenspoint Mall that it was too far out of the city to be successful. Now the development is almost in Huntsville.


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## baldilocks (Mar 7, 2010)

Dionysus said:


> One thing Saudi Arabia did not consider, nor could have known at the time they decided to try to shutdown the fracking competition, is that the US would one day resume selling oil to the global market. Many don't know this, but the US has not been able to sell like other OPEC countries for about 50 years after the oil embargo of the 70s. That was ended last year, so the effects will begin to unfold in 2016. The US is not an OPEC member, BTW.


The US has been quite able to sell its oil. I chose not to, because it was thought that the Middle East oil would dry up eventually leaving the US with a monopoly in oil and riches galore. "Eventually" has not yet arrived.


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## baldilocks (Mar 7, 2010)

Dionysus said:


> *You can still shoot deer in the Woodlands*, but probably not a good idea now that the Woodlands has grown so much. Well, shooting a firearm in a city is not legal either.  Exxon Mobile recently consolidated all of their Houston offices into one campus just north of the Woodlands.


Why would anyone want to? there are plenty of retail outlets selling meat so there is no need to kill for food.


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## Horlics (Sep 27, 2011)

baldilocks said:


> The US has been quite able to sell its oil. I chose not to, because it was thought that the Middle East oil would dry up eventually leaving the US with a monopoly in oil and riches galore. "Eventually" has not yet arrived.


And there I was thinking democracies only worry about and plan for the current term!

One Mid East country I know well won't run out for 140 years, and i think Saudi has more than they do. 

I doubt very much that anybody today whether in government or the oil business is saying, "just close it off a while and in 140 years they'll thank us". Or, "we know the share price could be better but just hang in for 140 years and you'll be pleased you did".


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## baldilocks (Mar 7, 2010)

Horlics said:


> And there I was thinking democracies only worry about and plan for the current term!
> 
> One Mid East country I know well won't run out for 140 years, and i think Saudi has more than they do.
> 
> I doubt very much that anybody* today* whether in government or the oil business is saying, "just close it off a while and in 140 years they'll thank us". Or, "we know the share price could be better but just hang in for 140 years and you'll be pleased you did".


We are talking about over 40 years ago when you were probably still in nappies.


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## Isobella (Oct 16, 2014)

Could the falling oil price be deliberately manipulated in order to destroy Russia/Putin :noidea:


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## baldilocks (Mar 7, 2010)

Isobella said:


> Could the falling oil price be deliberately manipulated in order to destroy Russia/Putin :noidea:


Not an unlikely possibility.


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## Elyles (Aug 30, 2012)

OPEC has the largest oil reserves followed by Venezuela and the US is around 11th in reserves.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_proven_oil_reserves

Check out the list. OPEC itself consists of many countries listed here.


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## Dionysus (Jan 4, 2016)

*True...*



baldilocks said:


> The US has been quite able to sell its oil. I chose not to, because it was thought that the Middle East oil would dry up eventually leaving the US with a monopoly in oil and riches galore. "Eventually" has not yet arrived.


What you say is true, but let's be clear. The US, because of the oil embargo of the '70s, decided that they needed to have a strategic oil reserve for the country, and so the US Congress passed a law banning the export of crude. The result was the 'US Energy Policy and Conservation Act'. The US still exports distilled products, even gasoline which is too volatile, so not much is exported.

So the US did stop exporting crude, not for nefarious reasons, not because they wanted a monopoly; the US government is not in the oil business, it is all private companies. During the time before the embargo, and still today, it was just cheaper to buy a barrel of oil in the market than it cost to produce locally. The US was very dependent on the cheap foreign oil from Saudi Arabia.

Now the US is a top producer of crude, and has actually a larger resource of crude than does Saudi Arabia. However, Saudi Arabia has far greater reserves. In the long run, the US will have more oil to produce, not just because it has been hording it the past 40+ years, but the technology that exists, and the resources in unconventional wells.

It is a balancing act, OPEC wants to control the price of oil, they need it to be at $80/barrel, or so. US companies can turn a profit at anywhere around ~$40/barrel (some even at $20-30). If OPEC closes the spigot, then oil will go up in cost and benefit OPEC countries. However, US producers can profit after ~$40.00, so they will start to produce the unconventionals again. Saudi Arabia's plan may, in the end, backfire. Throw the Sunni/Shia politics into the mix, and it can get ugly quick, OPEC will dissolve, and it will be every country on its own.


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## Sirtravelot (Jul 20, 2011)

You guys are worrying about a campfire when there's a whole forest on fire a few miles away.

The refugee crisis will be Europe's real test if Germany doesn't topple its current dictator. And Spain will suffer just the same.


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## Elyles (Aug 30, 2012)

Dionysus said:


> What you say is true, but let's be clear. The US, because of the oil embargo of the '70s, decided that they needed to have a strategic oil reserve for the country, and so the US Congress passed a law banning the export of crude. The result was the 'US Energy Policy and Conservation Act'. The US still exports distilled products, even gasoline which is too volatile, so not much is exported. So the US did stop exporting crude, not for nefarious reasons, not because they wanted a monopoly; the US government is not in the oil business, it is all private companies. During the time before the embargo, and still today, it was just cheaper to buy a barrel of oil in the market than it cost to produce locally. The US was very dependent on the cheap foreign oil from Saudi Arabia. Now the US is a top producer of crude, and has actually a larger resource of crude than does Saudi Arabia. However, Saudi Arabia has far greater reserves. In the long run, the US will have more oil to produce, not just because it has been hording it the past 40+ years, but the technology that exists, and the resources in unconventional wells. It is a balancing act, OPEC wants to control the price of oil, they need it to be at $80/barrel, or so. US companies can turn a profit at anywhere around ~$40/barrel (some even at $20-30). If OPEC closes the spigot, then oil will go up in cost and benefit OPEC countries. However, US producers can profit after ~$40.00, so they will start to produce the unconventionals again. Saudi Arabia's plan may, in the end, backfire. Throw the Sunni/Shia politics into the mix, and it can get ugly quick, OPEC will dissolve, and it will be every country on its own.


Well put! Realistic info instead of the drivel that started this post.


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## mrypg9 (Apr 26, 2008)

Sirtravelot said:


> You guys are worrying about a campfire when there's a whole forest on fire a few miles away.
> 
> The refugee crisis will be Europe's real test if Germany doesn't topple its current dictator. And Spain will suffer just the same.


Germany has a 'dictator', does it......Now I seem to recall that Germany is a parliamentary democracy with freely elected politicians.....
If Germany is dissatisfied with its current Chancellor it has the mechanism for electing another. Just as in Spain and the UK.
I think you need to wake up, it's 2016 not 1936.


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## Horlics (Sep 27, 2011)

baldilocks said:


> We are talking about over 40 years ago when you were probably still in nappies.


Ah right, so 40 years ago they decided to hold-out for 180 years until the Mid East ran out.

I think in your rush to be condescending to a young whipper snapper you missed the point.

And 40 years ago nobody knew how much oil the was in the Mid East.


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## Sirtravelot (Jul 20, 2011)

mrypg9 said:


> Germany has a 'dictator', does it......Now I seem to recall that Germany is a parliamentary democracy with freely elected politicians.....
> If Germany is dissatisfied with its current Chancellor it has the mechanism for electing another. Just as in Spain and the UK.
> I think you need to wake up, it's 2016 not 1936.


As a German, I'm fully aware of the "democracy" in Germany.

I'm aware and the CDU is trying to stop Merkel's refugee policy to no avail, even with the support of the CSU. 

I'm also aware of Germany's censorship that would give George Orwell a scare.

I'll be voting for the German equivalent of the UKIP party. Manifest destiny!


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## The Skipper (Nov 26, 2014)

mrypg9 said:


> Germany has a 'dictator', does it......Now I seem to recall that Germany is a parliamentary democracy with freely elected politicians.....
> If Germany is dissatisfied with its current Chancellor it has the mechanism for electing another. Just as in Spain and the UK.
> I think you need to wake up, it's 2016 not 1936.


She may not be a dictator in her own country but in Europe she seems to rule the roost! All the elected leaders of European countries appear to obey her every wish and the ECB is the puppet of Germany. If that's democracy I'm a banana!


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## Sirtravelot (Jul 20, 2011)

The Skipper said:


> *She may not be a dictator in her own country* but in Europe she seems to rule the roost! All the elected leaders of European countries appear to obey her every wish and the ECB is the puppet of Germany. If that's democracy I'm a banana!


She is now. When you censor the rape of your country's women by non-Germans, I would say that's pretty good dictatorship.


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## baldilocks (Mar 7, 2010)

Horlics said:


> Ah right, so 40 years ago they decided to hold-out for 180 years until the Mid East ran out.
> 
> I think in your rush to be condescending to a young whipper snapper you missed the point.
> 
> And 40 years ago nobody knew how much oil the was in the Mid East.


You prove the point by shooting yourself in the foot


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## Williams2 (Sep 15, 2013)

Williams2 said:


> For those who would like a reminder of the Able Archer scare of 1983, tune into the excellent
> Channel 4 Spy Series on Sunday night called, Deutschland 83.
> 
> Deutschland 83 - Cold War Spy series, with English subtitles
> ...


Just a reminder for those into 80's pop music and a great Spy series, laced with Cold War confrontation -
that Episode 4 of Deutschland 83 is on again tonight on UK's Channel 4 at 9pm GMT or 10pm CET.

Deutschland 83 - Channel 4 Episode guide


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## mrypg9 (Apr 26, 2008)

Sirtravelot said:


> She is now. When you censor the rape of your country's women by non-Germans, I would say that's pretty good dictatorship.


Please show me solid proof that Merkel ordered the suppression of what happened in Cologne.. 
Do German women prefer to be raped by Germans, then? Fear of Rassenschande, perhaps?
Is it worse to be raped by a foreigner?
That is the kind of remark a previous German ruler, a real dictator, might have made.


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## mrypg9 (Apr 26, 2008)

The Skipper said:


> She may not be a dictator in her own country but in Europe she seems to rule the roost! All the elected leaders of European countries appear to obey her every wish and the ECB is the puppet of Germany. If that's democracy I'm a banana!


You appear to have been transformed into a curved, yellow fruit
I'm afraid that although the current arrangements and balance of power within the EU and eurozone may not be to your or my liking, they are democratic in the sense that we accept the term in Europe.
What the ECB or EU like the IMF and other supra- national bodies are not is accountable.
That's different.
And if the other E U states didn't want to be beholden to German banks perhaps they shouldn't have rushed to borrow the cheap money they were offering.


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## Chopera (Apr 22, 2013)

Dionysus said:


> ...
> 
> It is a balancing act, OPEC wants to control the price of oil, they need it to be at $80/barrel, or so. US companies can turn a profit at anywhere around ~$40/barrel (some even at $20-30). If OPEC closes the spigot, then oil will go up in cost and benefit OPEC countries. However, US producers can profit after ~$40.00, so they will start to produce the unconventionals again. Saudi Arabia's plan may, in the end, backfire. Throw the Sunni/Shia politics into the mix, and it can get ugly quick, OPEC will dissolve, and it will be every country on its own.


In the long run Saudi Arabia's plan will backfire because even if the shale producers do go bust, the reserves will still be there, waiting to be exploited when it becomes profitable to do so (which is more or less what you are saying). In fact I doubt Saudi Arabia has a plan at all, it just doesn't have a choice. I was under the impression OPEC was dead anyway, given the Saudis are doing this against the wished of the other members.


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## olivefarmer (Oct 16, 2012)

I think it is fair to say that Saudi Arabia is flooding the market with oil in its fight for the house of Saud. In other words it is a fight against Satanic State. Shia and shi,ite.

If/when /satanic state's oil production is eliminated , then the price might be able to go up.


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## therese1 (Jan 28, 2016)

Sirtravelot said:


> As a German, I'm fully aware of the "democracy" in Germany.
> 
> I'm aware and the CDU is trying to stop Merkel's refugee policy to no avail, even with the support of the CSU.
> 
> ...


One of the reasons I fancy Spain is to escape the very Ukippy agenda currently being pursued in UK mainstream media. Wry smiles all round to hear the Ukippers bleating about foreigners, even in Spain, even when they're de facto foreigners.

I like Merkel's attitude to refugees and admire Germany for the stance taken.

Interesting that rape has emerged as a migrant issue. Our European women and children previously so safe from sex crimes and general sexual harassment.


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## Alcalaina (Aug 6, 2010)

therese1 said:


> One of the reasons I fancy Spain is to escape the very Ukippy agenda currently being pursued in UK mainstream media. Wry smiles all round to hear the Ukippers bleating about foreigners, even in Spain, even when they're de facto foreigners.
> 
> I like Merkel's attitude to refugees and admire Germany for the stance taken.
> 
> Interesting that rape has emerged as a migrant issue. Our European women and children previously so safe from sex crimes and general sexual harassment.


Well said.

I read recently that the former leader of the neofascist English Defence League, Tony Robinson, is launching a UK branch of the far right German anti-immigration party Pegida.

Personally I find these right-wing thugs much more scary than immigrants.


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## mrypg9 (Apr 26, 2008)

Alcalaina said:


> Well said.
> 
> I read recently that the former leader of the neofascist English Defence League, Tony Robinson, is launching a UK branch of the far right German anti-immigration party Pegida.
> 
> Personally I find these right-wing thugs much more scary than immigrants.


I agree with your general sentiments...but I think accuracy is called for on both 'sides', as it were.
Tommy (not Tony) Robinson seems to have some kind of problem defining where he stands. A year or so ago he publicly turned his back on the EDL and denounced its extremism. Now he's back on board again....He is quite articulate and wiped the floor with a very patronising, supercilious Jeremy Paxman on 'Newsnight' a couple of years ago.
The EDL is not strictly speaking a fascist organisation. Neither is Pegida a political party, as far as I'm aware. It's closely aligned with AfD , Alternativ fur Deutschland, a far-right anti-EU party which is gaining a lot of support all over Germany. It is totally different from the EDL or Pegida and has amongst its leading members many respected intellectuals and professionals. 
The EDL is an anti-immigration nationalist group which seems to attract men with tattoos, no hair and no neck and blonde hard-faced women who shout a lot.
If governments all over Europe had recognised people's legitimate concerns about EU open border immigration as well as the current huge numbers of migrants from outside the continent and had embarked on a serious, open discussion, we might not be in the sorry position we're in now, where it seems that Schengen will be no more and liberal states like Sweden and Denmark are taking measures to regulate the huge number of migrants attempting to enter their countries.
I think the problem resides in the fact that after Enoch Powell's explicitly racist anti-immigration speech in 1968, 'progressive' politicians have linked being anti-immigration with being racist and have acted and spoken accordingly.
In the first month of this year alone, Germany has accepted over 20000 migrants. Last year it took in more than a million. It simply can't absorb any more logistically, never mind culturally. 
I see that Sweden is deporting 80000 migrants and Germany plans to deport up to half of those it had admitted.
No way can EU states find decent accommodation and jobs for the millions who may still be on their way. That's not racism, it's fact.

And I think the women who were mobbed and assaulted in Cologne might not agree with your last sentence.


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## Isobella (Oct 16, 2014)

Alcalaina said:


> Personally I find these right-wing thugs much more scary than immigrants.


Does it have to be either/or I would be scared of any group who treats women like sex objects. Do right wing groups fondle women more than left wing ones

Perhaps fondle is the wrong word, maybe grope is better?


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## mrypg9 (Apr 26, 2008)

Isobella said:


> Does it have to be either/or I would be scared of any group who treats women like sex objects. Do right wing groups fondle women more than left wing ones
> 
> Perhaps fondle is the wrong word, maybe grope is better?


The Socialist Workers Party dealt with complaints of rape against one of its leading members, 'Comrade Delta', by holding an internal party enquiry which eventually exonerated the 'comrade' of any blame. They didn't want to involve 'bourgeois' police and courts.
So you can find instances of sexual misconduct in all Parties, criminal or 'immoral', as the recent death of Cecil Parkinson reminds us.
So no, it's not either/or and neither is it black/white. Some young men with Muslim cultural backgrounds do seem to have difficulties in coming to terms with the freedoms won by western women. 
Only a very blinkered and prejudiced 'progressive' person could fail to have foreseen that.
I must say though I have some sympathy with Jess Phillips MP's comments about Birmingham's Broad Street. We once had a conference in Birmingham and had to stay in a Jury's Inn on Broad Street when other hotels were fully booked. I looked out of the front doors at about eleven on a Saturday night and couldn't believe my eyes. 
Thousands of half-clad, pissed-up young people, police, paramedics, all in one great shouting, heaving mass. Unbelievable....


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## Elyles (Aug 30, 2012)

There is actually a credible psychiatric diagnosis under sexual paraphilias called froteurism. Referring to fondling, groping or rubbing against people in public. I have never diagnosed one but know they exist. Also referred to as sickos.


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## baldilocks (Mar 7, 2010)

Elyles said:


> There is actually a credible psychiatric diagnosis under sexual paraphilias called froteurism. Referring to fondling, groping or rubbing against people in public. I have never diagnosed one but know they exist. * Also referred to as sickos*.


or "desperate!"


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## mrypg9 (Apr 26, 2008)

therese1 said:


> One of the reasons I fancy Spain is to escape the very Ukippy agenda currently being pursued in UK mainstream media. Wry smiles all round to hear the Ukippers bleating about foreigners, even in Spain, even when they're de facto foreigners.
> 
> I like Merkel's attitude to refugees and admire Germany for the stance taken.
> 
> Interesting that rape has emerged as a migrant issue. Our European women and children previously so safe from sex crimes and general sexual harassment.


Merkel has backpeddled. Her 'stance' is now to assess migrants and deport those who do not meet the criteria for remaining in Germany.
She has been forced to do this because of public opinion, the sheer weight of numbers and the inability of the social services of many German towns to cope with the large number of migrants that they have been obliged to accept.
Realism triumphed over idealism.


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## baldilocks (Mar 7, 2010)

mrypg9 said:


> Merkel has backpeddled. Her 'stance' is now to assess migrants and deport those who do not meet the criteria for remaining in Germany.
> She has been forced to do this because of public opinion, the sheer weight of numbers and the inability of the social services of many German towns to cope with the large number of migrants that they have been obliged to accept.
> *Realism triumphed over idealism*.


It may take some time but it usually does!


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## Alcalaina (Aug 6, 2010)

Isobella said:


> Does it have to be either/or I would be scared of any group who treats women like sex objects. Do right wing groups fondle women more than left wing ones
> 
> Perhaps fondle is the wrong word, maybe grope is better?


Then you'll be scared of half the human race then. Viewing women as anything other than sex oblects is a very recent phenomenon even in so-called civilised societies. For example, marital rape has only been illegal in the UK since 1991.


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## mrypg9 (Apr 26, 2008)

Alcalaina said:


> Then you'll be scared of half the human race then. Viewing women as anything other than sex oblects is a very recent phenomenon even in so-called civilised societies. For example, marital rape has only been illegal in the UK since 1991.


All true. But you can't ignore the fact that the independence and freedom that women have won over the centuries has not been matched by similar advances in many other cultures. 
The particular culture that western societies is encountering at the moment is principally that of Muslim states. Consider that an estimated 60 to 80% of migrants are young men and it's undeniable that tensions will arise.
Ignoring these prejudiced attitudes towards women of a different culture led to the unnecessarily prolonged sexual exploitation and abuse of young girls in many parts of the Midlands and Northern UK. This, it has been acknowledged, was largely due to misguided fear of being thought 'racist'. Pretending that an extra, unwanted dimension isn't being added to what you rightly point out is a fragile acceptance in some quarters of female equality is, like shutting down discussion of immigration in general for fear of 'racism' adding to the problem and creating that which you wish to avoid.
Women are being abused and have been abused by western men in western societies is a sad fact. That women in western societies are now being abused by Muslim immigrant men is also a fact.
What on earth do we think these young men are? Monks and eunuchs?


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