# Theory on Tokai Earthquake



## Singapore Saint

Japan Tokai Earthquake Predicted July 2012 | Britton LaRoche | Blogs | Community | GarageGames.com

Came across this guy a month or so ago who is trying to pin earthquake activity to eclipses. He's saying that conditions will be set for a 20-30% chance of the Tokai earthquake happening on 8th July, which will follow a build up of activity, especially during the 2-4 weeks after last week's eclipse.

We're only 8 days after the eclipse, but last night's was the most violent one I've felt since I arrived here, which follows on from several 5.0+ over a 2-3 day period a week or so ago.

I've no idea whether this guy is just a beardy-weirdy scientist with too much food stored in his beard, or whether he is actually on to something, but at least it's making me replace (i.e eat) all of the chocolate and other goodies in the emergency kit and I might start planning which pub I'm going to take shelter in if he's right..


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## larabell

I've heard stranger explanations, for sure. But, according to the NASA reference, there are Saros 140 eclipses every 18 years or so... what happened to the rest of them? Also, while the Sun-Earth-Moon alignment is only perfectly straight when there's an eclipse (somewhere... not just in Japan), it's not like the planets somehow go orthogonal the rest of the time. There's probably not that much additional pull during an eclipse than what already happens twice every month.

Still, I recall wondering about the relationship myself many years ago so it's interesting to see someone putting some effort into analyzing the data. At first glance it seems to be a serious theory and not just another crackpot prediction. Thanks for posting.

As for last night's quake... if you monitor the JMA site from time to time you'll see that quakes in the 5.x range are fairly commonplace in Japan -- this one just happened to be in Chiba which is why it felt stronger here. We didn't even get an alarm (either from DoCoMo or from the cable company) but it was enough to trip three of my four quake-sensing safety lights (and wake me up, obviously).

BTW, batteries and water are probably more important than chocolate. I don't recall chocolate being in short supply last March .


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## Rube

There was a quake last night? Didn't notice. 

Since I've been here they have been talking about the big one but didn't even see the huge one coming so I don't put too much faith into their predictions anymore. Kind of like saying it's going to rain sometime in the next year.


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## larabell

Monday night, actually... 5.2 in Chiba-ken:

Japan Meteorological Agency | Earthquake Information

I agree with your assessment. I've read experts say that Sanriku-oki pushed out the timetable for the next big Kanto quake, some that say it increased the odds and some who say we really don't know enough about the mechanism or have enough data to make a reliable call one way or the other. I'm more inclined to believe the latter.

But, if I'm reading the referred-to web page right, they're claiming they called 3/11 within a week or so and only a few hundred kilometers off. I didn't mount a search on the archive sites to see if they really said that *before* it happened but, if they did, that's a pretty close coincidence.

Of course, with the amount of raw data available today, the chances of finding at least one phenomenon that correlates to large earthquakes is almost 100%, even if the so-called "correlation" is a complete coincidence. I'm skeptical because these guys selected only a specific kind of eclipse and ignored the rest. But we'll see come July...


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## Singapore Saint

I was talking to someone about this theory the other day and she said Web Bot had also predicted a major world catastrophe for July 10th, which she thinks is the earthquake. I hadn't heard of Web Bot, but apparently it tracks keywords searches online to predict major events..

I commented that Web Bot wouldn't be able to predict the earthquake and she looked me straight in the eye and said "well, earthquakes aren't acts of nature, everyone knows that they are controlled by the HAARP antenna in Alaska..."

I've decided I should now be a professional poker player, as how I managed to keep a straight face is completely beyond me!


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## Rube

I don't know, that HAARP stuff isn't that nuts, wouldn't be surprised in a hundred years or so they could actually do it.


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## rhornal

I'm thinking it's all related to sunspots. Or, I'm thinking that somewhere out there is another theory that relates it all to sunspots. And, i'm hoping that the big one doesn't happen until summer's over.


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## nevaeh

So, place your bets?  I vote for July 11.

If you're into conspiracy theories HAARP is an interesting one indeed.

Anyway, lately I am slightly freaking out about the earthquake possibilities... Weird dreams and all sorts. I think I'm just nuts, so no need for anyone else to worry. 

I've done all I can to prepare: emergency bag at the door, walked home from work to learn the way and got life insurance


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## Rube

They often do similations of what would happen and basically, if you live in an old section of town with small wood buildings you're screwed, toast, mashmellow. They know that something like 90% of the deaths will come from those sections. The rest of us basically have very little too fear but it's always a good idea to prepare a little. We use water coolers at home for years now but since the last big quake and the run on water we've increased our supply from 40 liters to 60 liters at all times.


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## larabell

Apparently, when most people think of "prepare", the image in their minds is one of fleeing the city or living in the local park after their house collapses. The chances of that are pretty slim living in Tokyo (unless, as Rube says, you're in one of those wood shanty districts when the quake happens).

It's more important to prepare for the complete breakdown of the carefully balanced "just in time" distribution system. Combine that with the fact that few people really "prepare" for a quake beyond gathering a few supplies in a backpack (which is OK, it's just not the only thing you should be doing). The result is that as soon as some huge event happens, everyone who's not prepared starts socking away supplies at the same time. That's why we saw bread, water, toilet paper, and batteries disappear off store shelves for weeks after 3/11 -- even though, as far as I know, nobody in the Tokyo area died as a result of the initial quake.

The situation is obviously different if you choose to live near the coast. And no matter where you live, there are likely to be breakdowns in both communication and transportation. But those are just minor inconveniences for most people. And while it's always good to have life insurance if there are others who depend on you -- your chances of needing it because of a quake if you're living in Tokyo are pretty slim. It's the man-made problems after the quake that are more likely to affect you.


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## Rube

A person died in kanagawa at a costco when the roof to the ramp leading up to the parking lot collapsed. I think the total number of people in the area was 3 or 4. Might have been in Chiba or Saitama though. 

I actually joined that place, but it only lasted a few minutes. After they told us to check our bags in before shopping to prevent shoplifting I returned their card and got my money back. They told me, rules are rules and it's what keeps their store alive, not the customers.


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## Singapore Saint

Last weekend this guy predicted a 6+ in Taiwan within the next 3 days and there was a 5.9 i think within a few hours. Although he has also predicted the Tokei Earthquake 2-3 times over the last 1-2 yrs..

The reason why it doesn't happen with all eclipses is that the path of the eclipse needs to pass over a point where at least 3 plates meet, which this one did, not just 2 as usually happens. I don't know, I read some of his posts and it seems to be happening as he'd expect, but at the same time he's almost in danger of crying wolf.

At least it has made us review our plans, make sure that we know what we're going to do, which pub we're going to head to etc. We didn't live here in March last year but heard someone say that all that was left in the supermarkets was beer, **** and porn... Made me wonder what the problem was, that's a normal weekly shop isn't it?


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## larabell

Yeah... I seem to recall beer not being a problem. I'm not sure I'd want to rely on beer to keep me hydrated, though, since the alcohol is a diuretic ).

One thing that struck me as unusual was that when I was at the convenience store trying to scare up some bread for the wife, I noticed that the bread shelf wasn't entirely empty. There was pretty much a whole box of this one particular kind of stawberry-looking snack cake -- and nothing else. I probably should have made note of the brand or taken a picture. You can't possibly find a better dis-recommendation for your product than having it be the last item left on the shelf after a disaster and still nobody will touch it.

Also, it helps to think outside the box. A day after I struck out on bread, a friend of mine told me she had been buying bread from a small corner bakery a few blocks further down the street and when I checked it out, sure enough... the guy was just pulling several loaves of fresh bread from the oven. Of course, I know I can't rely on that bakery in the event of a huge local disaster but the point is that you also don't have to rely on just-in-time distribution to the chain stores -- pretty much every neighborhood in Tokyo has mom-and-pop shops that supply basic staples and it might be worth getting to know where they are and what they sell (and maybe doing a bit of business there from time-to-time) before the next big one hits.


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