# Expats are leaving Spain, official figures show



## Editor (Aug 20, 2009)

Official figures back up anecdotal evidence that expats are leaving Spain, especially in resort areas like the Costa Blanca which is popular with British and German nationals. The data from the National Institute of Statistics (INE) shows that the number of foreign citizens living in Spain fell by 128,372 in 2015, a fall of 9%. […]

Click to read the full news article: Expats are leaving Spain, official figures show...
Please come back to discuss the story here in this thread.


----------



## xabiaxica (Jun 23, 2009)

I'd say that this is more likely due to an adjustment of padrón figures. 

Yes expats have been leaving, but not in big sudden numbers.

Many many leave without coming off the padrón, & it can take up to 5 years for this to be known for sure by aytos, & for them to be removed from the padrón by default, when they don't respond to contact by the ayto asking for them to confirm their presence

Quite a lot have also come off the padrón who should never have been there in the first place since they aren't resident - & Madrid has threatened massive fines for aytos found to have 'ghost' residents who only have holiday homes in the town.


----------



## Alcalaina (Aug 6, 2010)

Anecdotal evidence from this forum shows that there are as many people wanting to move to Spain as ever. Property sales statistics back this up.


----------



## Williams2 (Sep 15, 2013)

I just wanted to point out that I'm still holding out in Asturias, ok our numbers have declined somewhat over the past month but we
can still give a good account of ourselves.
Perhaps nows the time for having a quick roll call of those British Expats still holding their positions in Spain ?


----------



## Lynn R (Feb 21, 2014)

I don't know any expats of any nationality who have left Spain during the last 12 months. I know one British one who wants to leave (and has been trying to sell his house for over 6 years) and that is because his wife died and he thinks he'd be happier back in the UK.

I know one British man who owns a holiday home here but lives in Thailand, he has put his house on the market this week, because of Brexit according to him. I can't imagine what difference he thinks Brexit would make to someone in his position as surely any changes will affect those who are resident here first and foremost, but I didn't discuss it with him.


----------



## xabiaxica (Jun 23, 2009)

Lynn R said:


> I don't know any expats of any nationality who have left Spain during the last 12 months. I know one British one who wants to leave (and has been trying to sell his house for over 6 years) and that is because his wife died and he thinks he'd be happier back in the UK.
> 
> I know one British man who owns a holiday home here but lives in Thailand, he has put his house on the market this week, because of Brexit according to him. I can't imagine what difference he thinks Brexit would make to someone in his position as surely any changes will affect those who are resident here first and foremost, but I didn't discuss it with him.


I know of a couple of families who have gone - but quite a few more who have come to Jávea or are coming in the next few weeks


----------



## Alcalaina (Aug 6, 2010)

The "expert" in the article says the 2015 exodus (6% of Brits and 7% of Germans) is largely due to Modelo 720 which required people to declare their overseas assets.


> He pointed out that the worldwide asset declaration obligation was introduced to clamp down on corruption and fiscal evasion by locals. “But the main victims have been EU expats, who are either leaving Spain, choosing not to come in the first place, arranging their affairs to avoid being fiscal residents, or simply dropping off the radar,” Stucklin explained.


Has anyone seen evidence that the main victims have been EU expats? It certainly doesn't appear so from this article. 
Modelo 720: Así son los contribuyentes que ocultan a Hacienda su patrimonio extranjero | Economía | EL PAÃ�S


----------



## sat (Jul 20, 2008)

In my experience from the past few years of buisness, I have found that some people whose partners have died and are now on their own have started to live here less, and instead using Spain as more of a holiday home rather than a permanent home. Being nearer to family etc.
And that more people have actually been moving here than actually leaving.....in fact I have a job already booked for next summer!!!!


----------



## xabiaxica (Jun 23, 2009)

Alcalaina said:


> The "expert" in the article says the 2015 exodus (6% of Brits and 7% of Germans) is largely due to Modelo 720 which required people to declare their overseas assets.
> 
> 
> Has anyone seen evidence that the main victims have been EU expats? It certainly doesn't appear so from this article.
> Modelo 720: Así son los contribuyentes que ocultan a Hacienda su patrimonio extranjero | Economía | EL PAÃ�S


I know of a few who left because of 720, but they left long before 2015.

I've not come across any foreigners who have been 'caught' but I guess they might not shout it from the hills. If you look at it logically, just by population numbers, more Spanish nationals are likely to have been caught than foreigners.

I did get pretty sick of claims that it was 'aimed at expats' when it was first introduced, which it so obviously wasn't. I'm surprised that an 'expert' is still flogging that :deadhorse:


----------



## webmarcos (Dec 25, 2012)

Alcalaina said:


> Anecdotal evidence from this forum shows that there are as many people wanting to move to Spain as ever. Property sales statistics back this up.


Yep. House sales up 19.5% in June compared to the previous year. Mainly in the big cities though..



> However, growth is largely restricted to five major cities and their surrounding areas: Madrid, Barcelona, Alicante, Malaga and Valencia. Total sales for the first half of the year were 207,593.


Spanish housing market: Spain’s housing market continues to show steady signs of recovery | In English | EL PAÍS


----------



## Alcalaina (Aug 6, 2010)

webmarcos said:


> Yep. House sales up 19.5% in June compared to the previous year. Mainly in the big cities though..
> 
> Spanish housing market: Spain’s housing market continues to show steady signs of recovery | In English | EL PAÍS


Sure. I was just pointing out that you can always find statistics to back up a theory if you look hard enough.

However, _anecdotally,_ we are currently seeing quite a few Northern Europeans putting in offers for properties in the village that have been empty for years. Mainly (like us) buying holiday homes for eventual retirement.

The elderly Brits who couldn't hack pueblo life have all gone now.


----------



## Lynn R (Feb 21, 2014)

Alcalaina said:


> The "expert" in the article says the 2015 exodus (6% of Brits and 7% of Germans) is largely due to Modelo 720 which required people to declare their overseas assets.
> 
> 
> Has anyone seen evidence that the main victims have been EU expats? It certainly doesn't appear so from this article.
> Modelo 720: Así son los contribuyentes que ocultan a Hacienda su patrimonio extranjero | Economía | EL PAÃ�S


No, I haven't seen any. As far as I've seen in the press only one person has been fined so far (I did post on here about it at the time) and he was a Spanish pensioner who had failed to declare money held overseas for over 20 years.

http://www.abc.es/economia/abci-age...nto-bienes-exterior-201512022128_noticia.html




I cannot see why there should have been an "exodus" of Brits and Germans in 2015 becaus eof the Modelo 720, because it had been in force for 3 years by then so surely people who were worried about previous non-declarations catching up with them would have left before then?


----------



## mono (Jan 22, 2016)

Maybe they took a while to sell their houses


----------



## xabiaxica (Jun 23, 2009)

mono said:


> Maybe they took a while to sell their houses


by which time they'd have realised that modelo 720 is nothing to be feared


----------



## baldilocks (Mar 7, 2010)

For us the doom and gloom is the other way round. We know of three new Brit families moving into the village with (we hear) two more houses having been sold to Brits. We hope we aren't going to get the drunken bar smashing crowd back. One Brit couple may have now parted and be going their separate ways (she is a husband-beater - makes a change!).

On the other hand we have a Dutch couple and a French couple (again fairly new) who keep themselves so much to themselves as to be almost secretive.


----------



## Megsmum (Sep 9, 2012)

baldilocks said:


> For us the doom and gloom is the other way round. We know of three new Brit families moving into the village with (we hear) two more houses having been sold to Brits. We hope we aren't going to get the drunken bar smashing crowd back. One Brit couple may have now parted and be going their separate ways (she is a husband-beater - makes a change!).
> 
> On the other hand we have a Dutch couple and a French couple (again fairly new) who keep themselves so much to themselves as to be almost secretive.


we are quite safe here, the average person does not even know we exist!!!!!!!!! Long may it stay that way


----------



## Khrissy (Jan 7, 2016)

Never fear, we're on our way to boost the expat population by the grand total of two! Ferry booked for 6th September. Can't wait. Save some sun for us, there's been precious little of it in Blighty!


----------



## Rabbitcat (Aug 31, 2014)

baldilocks said:


> For us the doom and gloom is the other way round. We know of three new Brit families moving into the village with (we hear) two more houses having been sold to Brits. We hope we aren't going to get the drunken bar smashing crowd back. One Brit couple may have now parted and be going their separate ways (she is a husband-beater - makes a change!).
> 
> On the other hand we have a Dutch couple and a French couple (again fairly new) who keep themselves so much to themselves as to be almost secretive.



Don't get me started about inconsiderate neighbours

We have loud talking ones next door. Some nights I can hardly hear myself drilling


----------



## Lynn R (Feb 21, 2014)

Any expats who left Spain and returned to the UK because of the Modelo 720 and associated penalties could be finding they've jumped out of the frying pan and into the fire, if these proposals are adopted.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...oposal-fine-tax-evaders-up-to-200-amount-owed


----------



## baldilocks (Mar 7, 2010)

Lynn R said:


> Any expats who left Spain and returned to the UK because of the Modelo 720 and associated penalties could be finding they've jumped out of the frying pan and into the fire, if these proposals are adopted.
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...oposal-fine-tax-evaders-up-to-200-amount-owed


It is more likely people leaving because Hacienda have been checking up on who is living here with an income that isn't being taxed or hasn't registered for tax purposes. The offer last year to be lenient if people came clean about their incomes over the previous six years scared a lot into leaving rather than own up, even if it was a good deal to do so.


----------



## Megsmum (Sep 9, 2012)

or could it be as simple as, they did not like it, missed family etc and went back to the UK. Living abroad is not for everyone, it does not have to be for suspicious reasons people leave


----------



## Lynn R (Feb 21, 2014)

cambio said:


> or could it be as simple as, they did not like it, missed family etc and went back to the UK. Living abroad is not for everyone, it does not have to be for suspicious reasons people leave


Naturally, a certain proportion of people who moved here have always gone back for just the type of reasons you have mentioned. However, the numbers in recent years who have returned have been higher than the normal "turnover". In part due to the purging of records of people on the padrón who were no longer actually here, to get them up to date, plus extra numbers left during the financial crisis due to lack of work or the fall in exchange rates affecting those on fixed incomes, then the ones who did leave because of the Modelo 720 being introduced, although I don't think that accounted for huge numbers.


----------



## baldilocks (Mar 7, 2010)

We may see a good few more leave with the Brexit worry - the £/€ rate drop reduces quite a few people's income and the concern that they may no longer get health care plus loose cannons in government making stupid, unsubstantiated statements about Spaniards in UK will only be allowed to stay for five years, etc. These are all likely to spur those who opt for go voluntarily rather than wait to be pushed.


----------



## Megsmum (Sep 9, 2012)

Lynn R said:


> Naturally, a certain proportion of people who moved here have always gone back for just the type of reasons you have mentioned. However, the numbers in recent years who have returned have been higher than the normal "turnover". In part due to the purging of records of people on the padrón who were no longer actually here, to get them up to date, plus extra numbers left during the financial crisis due to lack of work or the fall in exchange rates affecting those on fixed incomes, then the ones who did leave because of the Modelo 720 being introduced, although I don't think that accounted for huge numbers.


i see, so Spain tightening its procedures is a part cause. 



baldilocks said:


> We may see a good few more leave with the Brexit worry - the £/€ rate drop reduces quite a few people's income and the concern that they may no longer get health care plus loose cannons in government making stupid, unsubstantiated statements about Spaniards in UK will only be allowed to stay for five years, etc. These are all likely to spur those who opt for go voluntarily rather than wait to be pushed.


Agree, some will not feel confident at all. We are here until we cannot be here if you understand my thought process, which many do not
Healthcare healthcare healthcare is our only issue and not one we can afford to do without


----------



## rspltd (Jul 5, 2016)

I don't believe that Spain has a clue how many people live within it's borders. it has open borders to the rest of the EU and most people who enter from there come from other Schengen areas and so are not recorded. No records are taken of people when they leave (- other than the airlines checking documentation). I suspect these figures are of the same validity as other recent polls where it is obvious that the pollsters asked a few people and extrapolated the results and hope they were right.


----------



## Lynn R (Feb 21, 2014)

I don't know about foreigners leaving Spain - I went to the Extranjeria in Torre del Mar this morning to change my details because i've recently renwed my passport, and I have NEVER seen it so busy in all the times I've been there either on my own behalf or with someone else. 

The office opens at 9.00 am, I arrived at 8.25 am to find there was already a long queue and a lot of people arrived after I did. Luckily I managed to get a numbered ticket although not many of those who arrived after me did. I was seen at 10.30 and then had to go away and get a Modelo 720 downloaded and printed off (apparently they are not handing out those forms in the Extranjeria office any more) then take it to the bank and pay (I was gettiing a new "tarjeta" at the same time as the print on mine was hardly legible) then go back to the Extranjeria to get the new certificate. It took all damned morning!

There were some Brits and many more nationalities too, and the vast majority were either getting new NIEs or registering as residents, so obviousy new arrivals.

So anybody who will have to go to that office in the near future, be warned, get there early and you are likely to have a long wait.


----------



## VFR (Dec 23, 2009)

This family may soon be coming here as they are not very happy with their lot in the UK. 


Benefits family turns down 5-bed home - because it doesn't have a dining room


----------

