# New Zealand population set for major change over next 50 years



## Editor

In terms of work, jobs, wages and population New Zealand is likely to see significant changes in the next half century, according to a major report from its national statistics organisation. The labour force will grow much more slowly in the next 50 years than in the last 50, by itself reducing the projected rate [...]

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Please come back to discuss the story here in this thread.


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## mikesurf

New Zealand is becoming a nation of retirees with migrants making up most of the work force. Most young people want to leave NZ for better wages and job prospects. If most people want NZ to continue to be a boring little insignificant country this could be the ideal result.


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## topcat83

mikesurf said:


> New Zealand is becoming a nation of retirees with migrants making up most of the work force. Most young people want to leave NZ for better wages and job prospects. If most people want NZ to continue to be a boring little insignificant country this could be the ideal result.


Sorry - I didn't understand the last sentence at all. How does it relate to work & population? Especially as New Zealand certainly isn't (IMHO) a 'boring little insignificant country'. We have some world class industries here (look at 'Weta Workshop' in Wellington as an example), and have been world leaders in some important trends such as women's rights and our stance against nuclear weapons and energy.

It should also be pointed out that the situation here with the work force is no different to in the UK - see Census 2011: fewer than half of people living in London are white - Telegraph and Census 2011: The areas where English is not spoken - Telegraph


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## mikesurf

topcat83 said:


> It should also be pointed out that the situation here with the work force is no different to in the UK


My point exactly, but I don't live in the UK either.


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## topcat83

mikesurf said:


> My point exactly, but I don't live in the UK either.


So if you don't live in the UK and you don't live in New Zealand, where _do_ you live? And why do you keep on revisiting the NZ forum? 
It's obvious that you're unhappy about the place so shouldn't you just move on?


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## inhamilton

Aaaah ... the old brain drain myth.

Earlier this year, the NZ herald ran a piece outlining common myths about the NZ population.
No baby boom and fewer sheep: Myths busted - National - NZ Herald News

Amongst them were :

*Almost half of all Kiwis will soon be non-European: FICTION*
By 2026, 16 per cent will be Maori, 16 per cent Asian and 10 per cent Pacific - but 70 per cent will still be European or be mixed race.

*There's a brain drain: FICTION*
On average over the past 15 years we've lost 300 labourers a year, and net losses of most other unskilled groups, but we've gained 1570 professionals a year because of our skills-based immigration policy.

So ... if you think about it, the brain drain fiction thing makes sense. Any kiwi can move to Australia. Consequently there are a lot of unemployed and unskilled going to work in the mines, for example. Truck drivers working the interstate roads ... and so on. Whereas, anyone (generally) wanting to immigrate to NZ has to be skilled. So NZ is losing some people (skilled and unskilled) to Australia, but at the same time are picking up as many people (immigrants) who are almost solely skilled. That sounds like a skills upgrade for NZ to me.

In regards to most young people wanting to leave the country. Surely, if that were the case, there would be far more than a net 35,000 loss to Oz out of a population of 4,500,000 per year. In any case, most of the new immigrants are young people too and in most years there are far more people coming in than going out. And forgive me if I'm wrong, but I thought migrants were New Zealanders too. I don't understand Mikesurfs point about migrants working and filling any skills shortages that was supposed to be read as a negative??? Sounds like a positive to me, as is NZ's comparative insignificance and lower population density.


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## mikesurf

I agree with you however my point is that New Zealand lacks any cultural identity due to the mix of races that make up the population. The only culture NZ has is the Maori culture while all other races just cling on to their own individual cultures making it a mishmash. 

With regards to new skilled migrants coming in, yes skilled migrants are continually coming in but most of those migrants will leave in a few years or wait until they get citizenship and go to Australia, and so the cycle continues. Surely this can't be good for a country as a whole?


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## inhamilton

mikesurf said:


> With regards to new skilled migrants coming in, yes skilled migrants are continually coming in but most of those migrants will leave in a few years or wait until they get citizenship and go to Australia, and so the cycle continues.


In regards to your suggestion that 'most' migrants leave soon after arriving, or as soon as they get citizenship, the fact that there are around 1 million people living in NZ who were born overseas proves otherwise. I also read a survey earlier this year that said of those Brit expats (as an example) that had been here for 5 years, something like 90% were still here after 10 years.


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## topcat83

mikesurf said:


> I agree with you however my point is that New Zealand lacks any cultural identity due to the mix of races that make up the population. The only culture NZ has is the Maori culture while all other races just cling on to their own individual cultures making it a mishmash.


No different to the UK then.... 

The bottom line is that New Zealand's culture _is_ multicultural - we are a country of immigrants.
Even the Maori have only been here about 700 years ( they arrived some time between the 12th & 14th century). Abel Tasman arrived in 1642 then James Cook in 1769. 
The first true immigrants didn't start arriving until the early 1800s - so less than 250 years ago. And even they were a mixed lot, with English, French, Chinese and Dutch. 
To me what makes the NZ culture is the diversity, and the fact that so many New Zealand born do contain some Maori in their bloodline too. I always look at the children of my close friends to see this - one has Norwegian, Maori & Japanese ancestry, another has Irish, Maori & Vietnamese, yet another has Samoan and Chinese, and another three (my cousins!) have Maori & Kenilworth.
We have other friends who can trace tehir European ancestry back to the first immigrant ships in the 1800s.
So - what is any culture if not a 'mish-mash' of what has gone on before?



> With regards to new skilled migrants coming in, yes skilled migrants are continually coming in but most of those migrants will leave in a few years or wait until they get citizenship and go to Australia, and so the cycle continues. Surely this can't be good for a country as a whole?


Not 'most' - some. I've just got my citizenship and I have no intention of moving to Australia.

And you still haven't answered the question I posed in my previous post. 

if you don't live in the UK and you don't live in New Zealand, where do you live? And why do you keep on revisiting the NZ forum?
It's obvious that you're unhappy about the place so shouldn't you just move on?


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## Andrew East

topcat83 said:


> No different to the UK then....
> 
> The bottom line is that New Zealand's culture _is_ multicultural - we are a country of immigrants.


Isn't every developed country a country of immigrants? it's only the more remote, primitive or closed cultures that aren't. 

Having a diversity of ethnicities doesn't make a country mutlicultural _per se_, but tolerance and acceptance of differences does, as does well applied anti racial discrimation legislation. Peaceful co-existence is the name of the game.

I'm pleased to see so many Indian people calling New Zealand home, India is now the second largest source of migrants to New Zealand New Zealand sees an increase in number of Indians arriving for work and study The more the better I think, come one come all and help to make NZ great.


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## mikesurf

yes I see your point but don't you think that a country needs a single cultural identity? I have no issues with migrants helping build a country and helping with skills shortages etc. I live in France so I am also a migrant but I think I put back a fair bit as I employ quite a few locals to help run my business. I guess everyone has their own experiences in NZ but my experience was that most of my work colleagues were either on their way overseas or were planning a move some time soon. I know you will say that most migrants stay but that was not my experience. I always felt that NZ did not feel solid in itself but I guess that is because it is still a new country.

I also think you might be right maybe I should move on from this forum, however I had spent several years there and I was interested to hear other peoples experiences and have a say, I thought that was what forums were about?


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## topcat83

mikesurf said:


> yes I see your point but don't you think that a country needs a single cultural identity? I have no issues with migrants helping build a country and helping with skills shortages etc. I live in France so I am also a migrant but I think I put back a fair bit as I employ quite a few locals to help run my business. I guess everyone has their own experiences in NZ but my experience was that most of my work colleagues were either on their way overseas or were planning a move some time soon. I know you will say that most migrants stay but that was not my experience. I always felt that NZ did not feel solid in itself but I guess that is because it is still a new country.
> 
> I also think you might be right maybe I should move on from this forum, however I had spent several years there and I was interested to hear other peoples experiences and have a say, I thought that was what forums were about?


You're right about what forums are about - and I'd say that this current post of yours is an excellent one because it does what forums are about - it gives a point, then justifies it, which leads on to discussion.

However, I suppose my point about 'moving on' still stands though, as it sounds like your time in NZ was not the happiest time of your life and therefore I'd say that revisiting it by coming to forums like this will keep on opening up old wounds.

I'd also say that the UK no longer has a single cultural identity, and I'm not sure I was very keen on the 'old class-based' culture that used to (still does in the Government?) prevail. In many ways I find the NZ culture very 'British', but as it used to be but without the rigid class structure. I find that very comfortable.


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## MrsRose

mikesurf said:


> I agree with you however my point is that New Zealand lacks any cultural identity due to the mix of races that make up the population. The only culture NZ has is the Maori culture while all other races just cling on to their own individual cultures making it a mishmash.


There are probably very few industrialized countries that have a unique cultural identity apart from any foreign influence. The US is arguably the biggest mishmash of cultures in the world... not necessarily a bad thing so long as peoples are committed to peacefully sharing, enjoying, and respecting the various cultures that often collide with one another. 
I haven't been to NZ yet (only a few months to go! ) but I can tell just by what I've read, and by my interactions and discussions with Kiwis on this forum that there are major cultural differences...even between two mishmashy countries such as NZ and the US. 

"The Kiwi lifestyle" is what it's referred to, I believe.


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