# Podemos leads in voters intention poll



## Pesky Wesky (May 10, 2009)

Leading parties blame meteoric rise of Podemos on corruption | In English | EL PAÍS



> According to the Metroscopia survey, whose results must be confirmed by an official study by the Center for Sociology Studies (CIS) next week, Podemos would secure 27 percent of votes, 1.5 percentage points higher than the Socialists and seven points more than the ruling PP, which would get no more than 20.7 percent.


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## mrypg9 (Apr 26, 2008)

If these figures remain constant then Spain would have a Cortes which could be unworkable.
No one Party would hold the balance of power.
Over 70% would vote for other Parties on these figures, obviously, but it looks as if no Party will win sufficient support to form a strong stable government.
Severe turbulence ahead...


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## larryzx (Jul 2, 2014)

For those who are not aware Spain has a system of Proportional Representation. One votes not for a candidate, as in UK, but for a party. The number of candidates elected reflects the percentage of votes received. Thus 20% of the votes means 20% of the seats for that party. So if there are 30 seats total, that party gets 6 seats. The candidates chosen are the top six on the party's list of candidates.

Thus, unlike in UK where UKIP may get 20% support, the 'first past the post' system mean there is little chance of then getting any, or not more that a few, actual seats. In Spain as Mrypg says, it would result in a fractionalised, unworkable, coalition, governing party, not favourable to stable government.


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## mrypg9 (Apr 26, 2008)

larryzx said:


> For those who are not aware Spain has a system of Proportional Representation. One votes not for a candidate, as in UK, but for a party. The number of candidates elected reflects the percentage of votes received. Thus 20% of the votes means 20% of the seats for that party. So if there are 30 seats total, that party gets 6 seats. The candidates chosen are the top six on the party's list of candidates.
> 
> Thus, unlike in UK where UKIP may get 20% support, the 'first past the post' system mean there is little chance of then getting any, or not more that a few, actual seats. *In Spain as Mrypg says, it would result in a fractionalised, unworkable, coalition, governing party, not favourable to stable government.*




Not much different in actual outcome to the current situation in the UK..


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## Pazcat (Mar 24, 2010)

Good luck to them I say.

Is there a more complete run down of their manifesto somewhere other than just some bullet points?

Not entirely sure on all of the proposals I have heard from them but I can certainly see why they are popular.


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## Alcalaina (Aug 6, 2010)

Pazcat said:


> Good luck to them I say.
> 
> Is there a more complete run down of their manifesto somewhere other than just some bullet points?
> 
> Not entirely sure on all of the proposals I have heard from them but I can certainly see why they are popular.


It's still work in progress. The regional _círculos_ were given a two-month period to debate the finer details and this ends on 15 November. The idea is that policy should be determined by the members rather than the leaders.

REGLAMENTO DETALLADO DE LA ASAMBLEA CIUDADANA SÍ SE PUEDE - Podemos


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## Pazcat (Mar 24, 2010)

Thanks for the info Alcalaina!


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## Lynn R (Feb 21, 2014)

An interesting comment on Podemos from a rather unexpected source (unexpected by me at any rate, I would have imagined the banks regarding them with disfavour!):-

Ana Bot?n cree que Podemos persigue el crecimiento econ?mico de Espa?a como otros partidos | Espa?a | EL MUNDO


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## mrypg9 (Apr 26, 2008)

Lynn R said:


> An interesting comment on Podemos from a rather unexpected source (unexpected by me at any rate, I would have imagined the banks regarding them with disfavour!):-
> 
> Ana Bot?n cree que Podemos persigue el crecimiento econ?mico de Espa?a como otros partidos | Espa?a | EL MUNDO


On the contrary. If I were a banker or wealthy person I would encourage them. It's always a good tactic to syphon off discontent to somewhere ultimately harmless. Russell Brand and Vivienne Westwood, both multi-millionaires and he with a book to promote were prominent in the Anonymous riots in London yesterday. The upper classes must be quaking in their Gucci loafers...

When 15M hit the headlines over three years ago I said it was merely an updated repeat of 1968 . I said that such a disparate movement would be incapable of serious political change.
I was called cynical as well as that I was plain wrong, that this was the birth of a movement that would change Spanish society forever....
So now we have a couple of new political Parties seemingly sprung from nowhere. It's hardly surprising that Podemos and Ganemos have won such support when you look at the state of the current established parties and the corruption they have spawned and condoned.
But making promises that you have no possible means of fulfilling is a dangerous ploy.
I wonder how things will look in four years time.


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## Pazcat (Mar 24, 2010)

mrypg9 said:


> But making promises that you have no possible means of fulfilling is a dangerous ploy.


Doesn't seem to bother most major political parties that are already in power or have held it nor does it seem to worry the public who repeatedly vote the same pack of corrupt promise breakers in.
Time will only tell if Podemos can be a success and make things work but nobody will ever know if they don't break the shackles of familiarity first.


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## mrypg9 (Apr 26, 2008)

Pazcat said:


> Doesn't seem to bother most major political parties that are already in power or have held it nor does it seem to worry the public who repeatedly vote the same pack of corrupt promise breakers in.
> Time will only tell if Podemos can be a success and make things work but nobody will ever know if they don't break the shackles of familiarity first.


Well, that's right. But having a policy which currently states that some debts are 'bad' and can be reneged on is, if kept as part of a raft of policies, rather worrying.
Reneging on debt of any kind is a sure way of reducing Spain's borrowing capacity to nil. Would you lend money if you thought you might never get it repaid?
What should surely be done is for the state to take advantage of current low interest rates to kick-start the economy by investing in jobs and putting money in people's pockets.
A cut both in income tax for the low paid and IVA paid for by increased wealth taxes and higher taxes on HNWIs would also be a good idea. It's doable and would surely be welcomed by the majority.


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## Chopera (Apr 22, 2013)

Lynn R said:


> An interesting comment on Podemos from a rather unexpected source (unexpected by me at any rate, I would have imagined the banks regarding them with disfavour!):-
> 
> Ana Bot?n cree que Podemos persigue el crecimiento econ?mico de Espa?a como otros partidos | Espa?a | EL MUNDO


I'm hearing stories that even the right-wing Guardia Civil types with pictures of Franco above their fire places are so fed up with the current political system that they're now supporting Podemos.

I think the Spanish have reached breaking point and the entire political structure of the country is going to change one way or another. Podemos at least offer a peaceful way forward and maybe that's enough for most people.


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## Lynn R (Feb 21, 2014)

mrypg9 said:


> Well, that's right. But having a policy which currently states that some debts are 'bad' and can be reneged on is, if kept as part of a raft of policies, rather worrying.
> Reneging on debt of any kind is a sure way of reducing Spain's borrowing capacity to nil. Would you lend money if you thought you might never get it repaid?


Iceland seem to have managed to avoid utter collapse (and I don't mean the shop!).


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## mrypg9 (Apr 26, 2008)

Chopera said:


> I'm hearing stories that even the right-wing Guardia Civil types with pictures of Franco above their fire places are so fed up with the current political system that they're now supporting Podemos.
> 
> I think the Spanish have reached breaking point and the entire political structure of the country is going to change one way or another. Podemos at least offer a peaceful way forward and maybe that's enough for most people.


A 'peaceful' way is all very well. A realisable, practical peaceful way would be even better.
But one sure way of not ensuring peace is to promise things you can't deliver. That to me is just one of the potential pitfalls of idealist groups like Podemos.
I would guarantee that if they were to achieve real power, within three months there would be violence on the streets even worse than that already experienced.
And it might not be from the usual suspects.
A quick look back at _les evenements_ in 1968 France could be illuminating.
And what it was that brought an end to the 'revolution' and put De Gaulle back in power.


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## mrypg9 (Apr 26, 2008)

Lynn R said:


> Iceland seem to have managed to avoid utter collapse (and I don't mean the shop!).


There's no real comparison between the two countries - Iceland and Spain.

My personal feelings are actually - and this may surprise you - quite violently revolutionary. I have a mental list of people I'd like to see put up against a wall and shot. I might have a comfortable lifestyle now but I will never forget my mum's hard life. The same kind of people that kept us down then are still doing the same to others now.
But.....'we' have no real power *at the moment* for real change. Like it or not, the power currently lies with the money markets. It always has really. So whilst the goal must be a real social democracy with the yawning gap between the haves and have-nots reduced and with democracy in the workplace this can only be brought about within the current system until there is enough grip on the 'levers of power' to make real changes.


Was it the Fabians who believed you should first grow the trees before you can pick the plums? If so I guess I'm a Fabian but a reluctant one.


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## Chopera (Apr 22, 2013)

mrypg9 said:


> Well, that's right. But having a policy which currently states that some debts are 'bad' and can be reneged on is, if kept as part of a raft of policies, rather worrying.
> Reneging on debt of any kind is a sure way of reducing Spain's borrowing capacity to nil. Would you lend money if you thought you might never get it repaid?
> What should surely be done is for the state to take advantage of current low interest rates to kick-start the economy by investing in jobs and putting money in people's pockets.
> A cut both in income tax for the low paid and IVA paid for by increased wealth taxes and higher taxes on HNWIs would also be a good idea. It's doable and would surely be welcomed by the majority.


We already allowed bad debts to be reneged on when the banks were bailed out. In return rules were introduced in Spain to prevent banks from repossessing the homes of families with no income whatsoever.


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## Alcalaina (Aug 6, 2010)

mrypg9 said:


> Well, that's right. But having a policy which currently states that some debts are 'bad' and can be reneged on is, if kept as part of a raft of policies, rather worrying.
> Reneging on debt of any kind is a sure way of reducing Spain's borrowing capacity to nil. Would you lend money if you thought you might never get it repaid?
> What should surely be done is for the state to take advantage of current low interest rates to kick-start the economy by investing in jobs and putting money in people's pockets.
> A cut both in income tax for the low paid and IVA paid for by increased wealth taxes and higher taxes on HNWIs would also be a good idea. It's doable and would surely be welcomed by the majority.


Not sure how closely you are following their activities but the proposal to default on the debt has been replaced by planned debt restructuring.

Podemos tones down its proposals at founding assembly | In English | EL PAÍS


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## Lynn R (Feb 21, 2014)

mrypg9 said:


> There's no real comparison between the two countries - Iceland and Spain.


And yet, here is an article saying that the southern European countries could do well to consider similar solutions to the Icelandic one. Sounds pretty good to me.


Iceland's debt-relief lessons for eurozone | Business | The Guardian


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## mrypg9 (Apr 26, 2008)

Alcalaina said:


> Not sure how closely you are following their activities but the proposal to default on the debt has been replaced by planned debt restructuring.
> 
> Podemos tones down its proposals at founding assembly | In English | EL PAÍS


No, I hadn't seen that. It's more acceptable. The initial enthusiasm has obviously diminished when faced with practicalities.

What is remarkable though is that neither in Spain nor the UK are there any 'leaders' with charisma, experience, skill and with real knowledge of those 'hardworking people and their families' that Osborne prattles on about.
Am I being overly nostalgic when I lament the passing of the Bevans, the Morrisons, the Bevins, the Croslands, the Castles.....and even the Tory 'big beasts...

Say what you like about Merkel...she has been a competent safe 'pair of hands' and has put the interests of her people first.
Which is what she was elected to do.


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## Chopera (Apr 22, 2013)

mrypg9 said:


> A 'peaceful' way is all very well. A realisable, practical peaceful way would be even better.
> But one sure way of not ensuring peace is to promise things you can't deliver. That to me is just one of the potential pitfalls of idealist groups like Podemos.
> I would guarantee that if they were to achieve real power, within three months there would be violence on the streets even worse than that already experienced.
> And it might not be from the usual suspects.
> ...


They all promise things they can't deliver, especially now that Spain has the euro and no monetary control over its economy. In the ten years I've been in Spain every single political leader has been completely and utterly useless, and the entire political system intrinsically corrupt. Podemos may well turn out to be a complete disaster, but what's the alternative right now?


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## mrypg9 (Apr 26, 2008)

Lynn R said:


> And yet, here is an article saying that the southern European countries could do well to consider similar solutions to the Icelandic one. Sounds pretty good to me.
> 
> 
> Iceland's debt-relief lessons for eurozone | Business | The Guardian


It depends entirely who the creditors are. Iceland's banks got away with reckless behaviour and British, Dutch and other local authorities, pension funds and small investors paid the price.

Debt cancellation is not a good policy in all cases. Governments need to borrow at the lowest rate possible to fund social schemes. 
Surely the main problem for Spain, Greece and Portugal is membership of the Eurozone?


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## mrypg9 (Apr 26, 2008)

Lynn R said:


> And yet, here is an article saying that the southern European countries could do well to consider similar solutions to the Icelandic one. Sounds pretty good to me.
> 
> 
> Iceland's debt-relief lessons for eurozone | Business | The Guardian


Did you read the comments under that piece? There were some interesting ones.
Like this:

_*Oh dear oh dear yet more selective stats in order to promote the agenda that there is a free lunch.
First, Iceland had to introduce import and capital controls. For any EU country doing that requires them to leave the EU.
Secondly, Iceland's GDP has still shrunk 31% since 2008
Whereas Greece, the most dramatic peripheral EZ economy,has shrunk 14% over the same period
Iceland GDP | 1960-2014 | Data | Chart | Calendar | Forecast | News
Greece GDP | 1960-2014 | Data | Chart | Calendar | Forecast | News 
Last night on Newsnight was instructive. An academic economist that had never held a real job telling us sovereign debt doesn't matter. On the other side of the table a man who makes money with money saying debt does and there is no free lunch. Guess who's right*_

And a couple of similar comments. As I said, it's Eurozone membership that is the problem. Something that will hopefully be borne in mind by Podemos policy wonks.


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## Chopera (Apr 22, 2013)

mrypg9 said:


> Did you read the comments under that piece? There were some interesting ones.
> Like this:
> 
> _*Oh dear oh dear yet more selective stats in order to promote the agenda that there is a free lunch.
> ...


It's eurozone membership that prevents Podemos from having any monetary control over the economy. They can say what they like about debt restructuring but it's not their decision to make. Normally I'd say that's a problem, but in this case it's partly why I'm quite relaxed about Podemos potentially making any hair-brained economic decisions - Frau Merkel has the final say on that, whether they like it or not.


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## mrypg9 (Apr 26, 2008)

Chopera said:


> It's eurozone membership that prevents Podemos from having any monetary control over the economy. They can say what they like about debt restructuring but it's not their decision to make. Normally I'd say that's a problem, but in this case it's partly why I'm quite relaxed about Podemos potentially making any hair-brained economic decisions - Frau Merkel has the final say on that, whether they like it or not.


I made that point not long ago when they first put out a few policy statements.
But as their platform is largely one of overturning the stranglehold the EU has over the national economy there could be a lot of disappointed supporters.

I'm not too sure about their proposals for labour law reform either. There are times when you have to shed a few jobs to save more.
I doubt that Podemos has many leading members with hands-on experience of running a business.

I sometimes think that the problem with the Left in the UK is that it attracts few businesspeople, very many of its members and MPs having had jobs paid from the public purse or only political experience.
But then the Tories have too many members and MPs who see things from the business point of view, especially the financial sector.

Whenever there was an election, the Labour candidate made a point of visiting Sandra's business with tv cameras etc....she was the only Labour member who owned a SME.


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## Lynn R (Feb 21, 2014)

I see the dead hand of "the market" is already pulling the strings:-

Riesgo pol?tico para la deuda | Econom?a | EL MUNDO

I really don't see that it makes an ounce of difference whether a country is in the EU or out of it when it is other forces which control a country's fate in this day and age.

Nobody ever elected JP Morgan, as far as I remember.


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## mrypg9 (Apr 26, 2008)

Lynn R said:


> I see the dead hand of "the market" is already pulling the strings:-
> 
> Riesgo pol?tico para la deuda | Econom?a | EL MUNDO
> 
> ...


When I first got involved in politics and Harold Wilson was PM the betes noires were the 'gnomes of Zurich'. The money markets have indeed always pulled the strings.

The markets now include more 'ordinary' investors though in the shape of our pension and other savings funds. It's not just fur coat wearing cigar-'smoking plutocrats with a blonde tart on their arms.

EU and especially EZ membership does make a difference though in that it restricts individual states' control,over many aspects of economic, social and judicial policy.


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## mrypg9 (Apr 26, 2008)

Would you like your pension fund, ISA or whatever, to invest in the Treasury bonds of a country if there was a possibility that a radical government might refuse to honour debt?
Really, J P Morgan is doing its job, no more, no less.


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## Lynn R (Feb 21, 2014)

mrypg9 said:


> Would you like your pension fund, ISA or whatever, to invest in the Treasury bonds of a country if there was a possibility that a radical government might refuse to honour debt?
> Really, J P Morgan is doing its job, no more, no less.


I know, I know - I'm just venting a sort of impotent fury because whatever the political will of the people might turn out to be, whether it be right or left wing, counts for nothing and we might as well stop pretending we live in a democracy.


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## Chopera (Apr 22, 2013)

mrypg9 said:


> Would you like your pension fund, ISA or whatever, to invest in the Treasury bonds of a country if there was a possibility that a radical government might refuse to honour debt?
> Really, J P Morgan is doing its job, no more, no less.


In general I'd say if you don't want your economic policies to be dictated by the "bond vigilantes" then don't get into the situation where your economy is dependent on selling them bonds. i.e. don't run up huge amounts of debt. However in Spain's case her debt has shot up largely because of severe economic mismanagement by the EU, and the dire structuring of the euro.


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## Chopera (Apr 22, 2013)

Lynn R said:


> I know, I know - I'm just venting a sort of impotent fury because whatever the political will of the people might turn out to be, whether it be right or left wing, counts for nothing and we might as well stop pretending we live in a democracy.


I think this might be why there tends to be a movement away from nation states towards federations at the moment. It's turning out that central governments don't really have that much power anyway, and don't connect with local regions that well either, so what are they for? It's interesting that Iglesias has said that while he personally wants Cataluña to remain part of Spain he respects their right to decide. Of course Iglesias doesn't actually call all the shots in Podemos, but if they do get in the wider constitutional implications could dwarf the economic ones if Spain does split.


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## mrypg9 (Apr 26, 2008)

Lynn R said:


> I know, I know - I'm just venting a sort of impotent fury because whatever the political will of the people might turn out to be, whether it be right or left wing, counts for nothing and we might as well stop pretending we live in a democracy.


Which is why I feel like chucking a brick through a branch window of RBS....

The only reason I hope for an afterlife is so I can know how much longer people are going to put up with this seemingly eternal and unchangeable short-changing of ordinary people.


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## mrypg9 (Apr 26, 2008)

Chopera said:


> In general I'd say if you don't want your economic policies to be dictated by the "bond vigilantes" then don't get into the situation where your economy is dependent on selling them bonds. i.e. don't run up huge amounts of debt. However in Spain's case her debt has shot up largely because of severe economic mismanagement by the EU, and the dire structuring of the euro.


But isn't Spain's debt largely personal and corporate?
An don't all economies however healthy sell bonds to fund various social projects and expenditures?
I agree about mismanagement, though. Couldn't the bail=out money have been partly used to ease the burden of the 'little' debtors? Not just for the banks?

How much control though has the individual over the management of our savings?

I've just read Ferguson's 'The Ascent of Money'....an interesting introduction so a subject I find it hard to get to grips with. It seems the blame for all this can be traced to the Medicis of Florence and the Fuggers of Augsberg...


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## Chopera (Apr 22, 2013)

mrypg9 said:


> But isn't Spain's debt largely personal and corporate?
> An don't all economies however healthy sell bonds to fund various social projects and expenditures?
> I agree about mismanagement, though. Couldn't the bail=out money have been partly used to ease the burden of the 'little' debtors? Not just for the banks?
> 
> ...


Spain's public debt is still within limits because it was very low before the crisis started, but it has been going up quite alarmingly:










Yes the main problem in Spain is private debt, although Spain has benefited from the fact that nearly everyone has a tracker mortgage at not much above the euribor rate. I'd guess that most Spaniards are paying less than 2% interest on their mortgages right now, so the private debt problem is not as bad as it could be. This hurt the banks (who illegally tried to put floors/suelos on some mortgages) and they did get a bailout. So in some way the individual is getting help, but it doesn't change the fact the banks have got away with the most disgusting behaviour.

I managed a few chapters of "The Ascent of Money" - his description of fractional reserve banking stuck with me in particular, and really helped my get a clearer idea about the nature of money (although I still find "money theory" a complete mind twister)


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## mrypg9 (Apr 26, 2008)

Chopera said:


> Spain's public debt is still within limits because it was very low before the crisis started, but it has been going up quite alarmingly:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Spanish debt shot up with unemployment and the necessity to pay paro, I guess.

Yes, I started 'The Ascent of Money' a year ago, put it down and only took it up again recently...it did explain a few things like fractional reserve banking as you mentioned, also credit default swaps, mortgage backed securities and such complicated financial instruments.
I'm now working my way through Thomas Piketty's 'Capital in the Twenty-First Century' which I got six months ago for my birthday and have yet to get a third of the way through as I have to read some chapters three times to ensure I understand what I've read...more or less.
A very absorbing and informative book, that. Highly recommended.


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