# US COLA Military Pension/ Social Security increase 8.7% (update 13 Oct)



## M.C.A. (Feb 24, 2013)

*Yes, Social Security's cost-of-living adjustment for 2023 is expected to be higher than average*

Social Security recipients could see an 8 to 10% increase in their monthly payments next year due to a cost-of-living adjustment, experts say. 

In 2022, Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) recipients saw a 5.9% increase to their benefits, the largest since 1982, due to an annual cost-of-living adjustment based on inflation rates. 
Social Security provides people with an income when they retire or can’t work due to disability. Those who are retired can typically start receiving their Social Security benefits as early as age 62. 
In recent weeks, some people on social media have claimed that Social Security payments will increase as much as 10% in 2023. 
Ruby and other VERIFY readers also asked the team if Social Security recipients will see a bigger increase than normal in their checks next year. 

*THE QUESTION*
Is the Social Security cost-of-living adjustment for 2023 expected to be higher than average? 
*THE SOURCES*

Social Security Administration (SSA)
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 
Mary Johnson, Social Security and Medicare policy analyst for The Senior Citizens League
AARP

*THE ANSWER*









Yes, the Social Security cost-of-living adjustment for 2023 is expected to be higher than average.

*WHAT WE FOUND*
The Social Security Administration (SSA) adjusts benefit amounts every year to account for inflation through a cost-of-living adjustment (COLA). The agency will announce the 2023 COLA in October of this year, a spokesperson told VERIFY.

The COLA is calculated based on the percentage increase in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), an inflation gauge measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). It measures the average change over time in the prices that workers are paying in a “basket of consumer goods and services.”
The SSA explains on its website that the COLA is equal to the percentage increase in the CPI-W from the third quarter average of the previous year to the same average from the current year. If there is an increase, it’s rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent. That same increase is applied to monthly Social Security payments. 

*More from VERIFY: No, Social Security recipients aren’t getting new $1,400 stimulus checks*
To determine the COLA for 2023, SSA will compare the CPI-W for July, August and September of 2021 to the same period in 2022. 

In July 2022, the CPI-W increased 9.1% annually, BLS data show. Data is not yet available for August or September. 
Data from SSA show that the highest COLA on record was 14.3% in 1980. But, over the past decade, the COLA has averaged just below 2%. 

More recently, it increased from 1.3% in 2021 to 5.9% in 2022. The last time the COLA was close to this percentage increase was in 2009, when it was 5.8%.

Though SSA hasn’t yet announced the COLA for 2023, experts estimate that benefits could increase by the largest amount since 1981. The COLA was 11.2% that year.

David Certner, legislative counsel and director of legislative policy for government affairs at AARP, says Social Security recipients can expect a COLA of 8-10% for 2023, though these estimates are preliminary and depend on consumer price data through September. 

Mary Johnson, the Social Security and Medicare policy analyst for the Senior Citizens League, predicts that the 2023 COLA will be 9.6%. That would average out to about $160 more per month for retired workers. That number could vary slightly depending on how inflation trends over the next several months, she said.

COLAs for the SSI program, which provides monthly payments to adults and children with a disability who have limited incomes and resources, are generally the same as those for Social Security, though they usually take effect the month after Social Security benefit increases, SSA says on its website. 

Verify Link


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## DonAndAbby (Jan 7, 2013)

July was 8.5 and August was 8.3, so it is unlikely the q3 average could go over 9. 8.4ish would be good though. That will be a nice bump for the kids and I!.


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## M.C.A. (Feb 24, 2013)

Latest COLA estimate is now 8.3%

Full story


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## bidrod (Mar 31, 2015)

M.C.A. said:


> Latest COLA estimate is now 8.3%
> 
> Full story


The article actually says 8.7% but counting what Sept ends up being could be 8.5-9%

Chuck


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## M.C.A. (Feb 24, 2013)

bidrod said:


> The article actually says 8.7% but counting what Sept ends up being could be 8.5-9%
> 
> Chuck


You're right Chuck, I posted the wrong data and yours is correct, the extra money sure will be a welcomed relief for our family of 7, I've got two more years before I can begin drawing my SS.


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## AppalachianBiker (10 mo ago)

Promises, promises..........from the U.S. Government? I'd rather trust an arsonist having a fire sale. The last COLA was consumed by an increase in the Medicare deduction increase. What's said in the press to feel good isn't always what's gets committed to paper once the television coverage stops.

They will find a way to negate the impact because it's too costly to their (politicians) power base. So with poor economic policy from a despot ruler, we're paying everyday for inflation with the HOPE that we will recoup some of our losses but in reality the increase might help us keep up with this inflation in 2023 but it does nothing for time or money lost.

I await the announcement that inflation, which is transitory according to Biden's minions, that soaring healthcare costs will be forcing an increase in the Medicare deduction taken from every social security check.

You heard it here first.

I try to be optimistic but I'm bludgeoned with daily doses of reality. Praying.


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## M.C.A. (Feb 24, 2013)

AppalachianBiker said:


> Promises, promises..........from the U.S. Government? I'd rather trust an arsonist having a fire sale. The last COLA was consumed by an increase in the Medicare deduction increase. What's said in the press to feel good isn't always what's gets committed to paper once the television coverage stops.
> 
> They will find a way to negate the impact because it's too costly to their (politicians) power base. So with poor economic policy from a despot ruler, we're paying everyday for inflation with the HOPE that we will recoup some of our losses but in reality the increase might help us keep up with this inflation in 2023 but it does nothing for time or money lost.
> 
> ...


I never got a COLA raise during the long and painful Obama Administration and if I did it was very small and was taken away with cost increases to my Survivors Benefit (Military) Life Insurance also run by the Government and I think the extra tax form that was generated mid way his term, the form that checks to see if you have $10,000 USD or more in a foreign bank and also if you own property, business or a condo, I had to update this form recently along with my newer US Passport and ACR card ID.

But the last COLA I received in January from Biden was okay, I didn't notice a loss to my Survivors Benefit Plan.


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## DonAndAbby (Jan 7, 2013)

AppalachianBiker said:


> Promises, promises..........from the U.S. Government? I'd rather trust an arsonist having a fire sale. The last COLA was consumed by an increase in the Medicare deduction increase. What's said in the press to feel good isn't always what's gets committed to paper once the television coverage stops.





M.C.A. said:


> But the last COLA I received in January from Biden was okay, I didn't notice a loss to my Survivors Benefit Plan.


The 5.9 % we got last year, in my case, was completely consumed by Medicare. That was a bit of a fluke but it was real.

This was my first year paying medicare. For your premium, they look at your income and if you make too much, you pay a higher premium. The income looked at is 2 years ago. In 2020, my income was over the limit because I sold my house in the U.S. One time profit. No exceptions for that. So I am paying $238 a month for medicare. Next year, it will go back to the normal premium, which is ~$170 now.


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## M.C.A. (Feb 24, 2013)

DonAndAbby said:


> The 5.9 % we got last year, in my case, was completely consumed by Medicare. That was a bit of a fluke but it was real.
> 
> This was my first year paying medicare. For your premium, they look at your income and if you make too much, you pay a higher premium. The income looked at is 2 years ago. In 2020, my income was over the limit because I sold my house in the U.S. One time profit. No exceptions for that. So I am paying $238 a month for medicare. Next year, it will go back to the normal premium, which is ~$170 now.


I'm not quite there yet with Medicare I'm only 60 and haven't begun to withdraw SS and from what I've learned Medicare isn't covered here either but they do cover Tricare in some clinics or hospitals now (military health care plan).

That's a real bait and switch, an increase and it gets taken away by taxes and Medicare. I also need to plan for SS because both I and my wife will be drawing shortly and I already receive a Military pension and so it could also put us in a higher tax bracket.


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## DonAndAbby (Jan 7, 2013)

M.C.A. said:


> I'm not quite there yet with Medicare I'm only 60 and haven't begun to withdraw SS and from what I've learned Medicare isn't covered here either but they do cover Tricare in some clinics or hospitals now (military health care plan).


Yeah, I had to bite the bullet and pay medicare, for now, until I decide for sure that I will not move back to the U.S. That is still on the table. If you don't start it when you turn 65, and want to start later, there is a big penalty, per year of delay, for not starting on time.


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## Zep (Jun 8, 2017)

Well now they will run out of money sooner.


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## DonAndAbby (Jan 7, 2013)

DonAndAbby said:


> July was 8.5 and August was 8.3, so it is unlikely the q3 average could go over 9. 8.4ish would be good though. That will be a nice bump for the kids and I!.


I knew that SS used CPI-W but I still wrongly used CPI when writing the above.

I'm a nerd so I just did some calcs using data from CPI-W. See the picture of 3 projections. The top box shows that if September CPI-W comes in at 8.3, the COLA will be 8.7. In second box, if Sept. comes in at 8.5. the COLA will be 8.8. In the bottom box, if Sept. comes in at 8.9, the COLA will be 8.9.

August went up to 8.7. Seems unlikely that Sept. will drop from 8.7 to 8.3. So my new guess is that the COLA will be the second box, 8.8.


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## AppalachianBiker (10 mo ago)

I'm 65, soon to be 66. I'm receiving my SSI "pension" promised to me during my 47 years in the work force. I use Medicare and more frequently than I ever thought I would. I pay for a supplemental plan to cover deductibles and another to learn the cost of prescriptions. For the level of care I'm getting with very few bills I'm pretty happy.

My problem with the BIG PICTURE is that it's great to promise people more money because of a COLA increase. They're spending money now and have been and the increase will come next year just to keep up. The extra money being spent now will not be recouped. Additionally, I see help wanted signs everywhere so who's paying in while we're taking out ? Where did Congress get the money to run 4 years of Russian collusion and impeachment trials. Government does not create wealth in the way a business does. They take the away and redistribute to garner favor and expand their power. Illegal immigrants typically do not pay into the system but they take in the form of healthcare, education, food assistance etc and free phones. Who is subsidizing all of that ?
They just PRINT more money further diluting the value of the dollars we worked to get and that in it's self fuels inflation. Reticent of a snake or rat devouring itself starting at it's tail. That isn't sustainable and neither is the way this government is doing things.

COLA is great as long as there's a steady stream of people paying in. Congress "borrows" from the SSI fund all the time. They never ever pay back the loans. SSI once upon a time could not be used for any other purpose until CONGRESS passed a law allowing them to raid the fund. 

I ask all of you, what's the end game ?


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## M.C.A. (Feb 24, 2013)

AppalachianBiker said:


> I'm 65, soon to be 66. I'm receiving my SSI "pension" promised to me during my 47 years in the work force. I use Medicare and more frequently than I ever thought I would. I pay for a supplemental plan to cover deductibles and another to learn the cost of prescriptions. For the level of care I'm getting with very few bills I'm pretty happy.
> 
> My problem with the BIG PICTURE is that it's great to promise people more money because of a COLA increase. They're spending money now and have been and the increase will come next year just to keep up. The extra money being spent now will not be recouped. Additionally, I see help wanted signs everywhere so who's paying in while we're taking out ? Where did Congress get the money to run 4 years of Russian collusion and impeachment trials. Government does not create wealth in the way a business does. They take the away and redistribute to garner favor and expand their power. Illegal immigrants typically do not pay into the system but they take in the form of healthcare, education, food assistance etc and free phones. Who is subsidizing all of that ?
> They just PRINT more money further diluting the value of the dollars we worked to get and that in it's self fuels inflation. Reticent of a snake or rat devouring itself starting at it's tail. That isn't sustainable and neither is the way this government is doing things.
> ...


To sustain SS they might increase the age for beneficiary's that's what I remember reading.


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## AppalachianBiker (10 mo ago)

They also must get people to actually work. The work ethic in America is on the wane.


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## Gary D (Oct 28, 2013)

AppalachianBiker said:


> I'm 65, soon to be 66. I'm receiving my SSI "pension" promised to me during my 47 years in the work force. I use Medicare and more frequently than I ever thought I would. I pay for a supplemental plan to cover deductibles and another to learn the cost of prescriptions. For the level of care I'm getting with very few bills I'm pretty happy.
> 
> My problem with the BIG PICTURE is that it's great to promise people more money because of a COLA increase. They're spending money now and have been and the increase will come next year just to keep up. The extra money being spent now will not be recouped. Additionally, I see help wanted signs everywhere so who's paying in while we're taking out ? Where did Congress get the money to run 4 years of Russian collusion and impeachment trials. Government does not create wealth in the way a business does. They take the away and redistribute to garner favor and expand their power. Illegal immigrants typically do not pay into the system but they take in the form of healthcare, education, food assistance etc and free phones. Who is subsidizing all of that ?
> They just PRINT more money further diluting the value of the dollars we worked to get and that in it's self fuels inflation. Reticent of a snake or rat devouring itself starting at it's tail. That isn't sustainable and neither is the way this government is doing things.
> ...


Congress borrowing from the SSI is an urban myth and it not true, try googling it.


Social Security History


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## AppalachianBiker (10 mo ago)

I'll take your word for that and retract my statement and you'll never catch me on Google (yep, I'm one of THEM) and use other search engines. I also use a VPN and pertinent emails do not go through Gmail. I use and off shore totally encrypted end to end email service from a country with STRONG privacy laws. I trust absolutely no one in our government.


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## AppalachianBiker (10 mo ago)

Here’s What the Government Did With Your Social Security Money | Casey Research


It's time to start actively working on a plan for the coming Social Security cuts




www.caseyresearch.com


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## Gary D (Oct 28, 2013)

AppalachianBiker said:


> Here’s What the Government Did With Your Social Security Money | Casey Research
> 
> 
> It's time to start actively working on a plan for the coming Social Security cuts
> ...


And this is what is said about Cayes Research,

"Casey Research is a Scam company that gets your Banking information for an initial low priced service, then won't cancel the charges after you call to cancel"

I guess next should be the definition of "gullible".


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## M.C.A. (Feb 24, 2013)

The Government finds ways to cut our pensions and SS, when I retired in 2003 from the US Navy, I was under the High Three Program so the last 3 years of my service monthly pay were averaged out for my final pay, and just a couple years before I enlisted it was 50% but I actually ended up with more like 35% of my base pay. It appears they are doing something similar to our Social Security benefits:

*The age for collecting full Social Security retirement benefits will gradually increase from 65 to 67 over a 22-year period beginning in 2000 for those retiring at 62*. The earliest a person can start receiving reduced Social Security retirement benefits will remain age 62. US Social Security website

*Retirement Age Has Already Been Increased*

The retirement age for full Social Security benefits has already been increased from 65 to 67 for anyone born in 1960 or later. This increase was enacted in 1983 as part of comprehensive legislation to strengthen Social Security’s financing at a time when the program faced an imminent financial crisis. The increase in the full retirement age has been phased in slowly based on a person’s year of birth.

This retirement age increase significantly cuts benefits for anyone retiring before their new full retirement age. For example, when the full retirement age was 65, workers retiring at age 62 received an initial benefit that was 20 percent less than their full benefit amount. When the full retirement age reaches 67, workers retiring at age 62 will receive a 30 percent cut in benefits.

Despite these benefit cuts, more than half of all people applying for Social Security retirement start benefits before their full retirement age. The maximum reduction is incurred by starting checks at age 62 —– 27 percent of men and 31 percent of women start their benefits at age 62. If the full retirement was increased to 70, as proposed by some, a retiree at 62 would receive only 55 percent of his or her full monthly benefit. This reduction amount would vary depending upon the specific language of any eventual legislation. In any case, the reduction at age 62 would be nearly half should the full retirement age be increased to 70. Brookings link


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## AppalachianBiker (10 mo ago)

Global recession prediction seems 'very valid': Market expert


Sep. 16, 2022 - 6:00 - TJM Institutional Services managing director James Iuorio says the real 'damage' won't show up in CPI data for another six months.




rumble.com





Even more happiness coming ?


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## M.C.A. (Feb 24, 2013)

AppalachianBiker said:


> Global recession prediction seems 'very valid': Market expert
> 
> 
> Sep. 16, 2022 - 6:00 - TJM Institutional Services managing director James Iuorio says the real 'damage' won't show up in CPI data for another six months.
> ...


The Peso to Dollar exchange rate seems great ( 57 pesos now) lol... until I get to the cashier and notice just how much higher the cost of the product is.

And in our region, we have tiny purple onions only, so no large yellow or white onions available, I've noticed this in our markets and major grocery chains. The price of broccoli and cauliflower is very high, I just avoid it for now.


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## Gary D (Oct 28, 2013)

M.C.A. said:


> The Peso to Dollar exchange rate seems great ( 57 pesos now) lol... until I get to the cashier and notice just how much higher the cost of the product is.
> 
> And in our region, we have tiny purple onions only, so no large yellow or white onions available, I've noticed this in our markets and major grocery chains. The price of broccoli and cauliflower is very high, I just avoid it for now.


We were recently in the UK for 15 weeks, the increases in prices in the supermarkets on our return are quite noticeable from when we left


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## M.C.A. (Feb 24, 2013)

Gary D said:


> We were recently in the UK for 15 weeks, the increases in prices in the supermarkets on our return are quite noticeable from when we left


Thanks for sharing Gary, yea... I panicked on my last grocery run because I'm used to a set amount "budget" but when everything was rung up it was way out of my budget until I had my son calculate the exchange rate and it was still a little higher than I wanted but within our budget.


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## fmartin_gila (May 15, 2011)

Doesn't make much difference in the long run. Last year the politicians were touting the 5.9% increase but not mentioning the 22% increase in the medicare deduction. There was a time in the past (don't remember which years) when we got no COLA 3 years running. Don't remember if medicare increased or not. We always seem to come out on the short end.

This recipient paid into the fund for 51 years and I feel I have received good value as I started collecting in 2001 at age 62 and am not done yet. Having a small private pension does help to mitigate the constant loss of buying power of the SS receipts but that too will be less effective over time as it does not change.

Fred


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## M.C.A. (Feb 24, 2013)

*Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) Information for 2023*
Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits for approximately 70 million Americans will increase 8.7 percent in 2023.

SSA full link

SSA Press release


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## art1946 (Nov 30, 2017)

I have already spent my increase. hahahhahaha

art


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## fmartin_gila (May 15, 2011)

art1946 said:


> I have already spent my increase. hahahhahaha
> 
> art


Art, We all have. The way the COLA is figured, there is no way it can keep up with inflation so we are always running behind. Guess I'm just thankfull for what I do have. Any time one thinks they are in a bad way, always remember that there is someone somewhere worse off than you are.

Fred


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