# Survey Results: What some Mexicans are Saying



## Longford (May 25, 2012)

One of the things which I believe helps expats assimilate into a more satisfying life in Mexico is gaining an understanding of what Mexicans think, what their opinions are on a wide-range of topics. Spanish-language fluency levels varies in the expat community, though, and it's not always easy to know these things. And then there is the "comfortability" question, where some expats, wanting to be respectful and not knowing where the imaginary line in the sand is over which you don't cross without asking or saying something offensive or Mexicans wanting also to be respectful makes the easy exchange of ideas difficult.

Pew Research Center released, yesterday, the results of this year's "Global Attidudes Project" Mexico survey. It's a survey taken in the homes of respondents in Mexico. I understand and recognize that surveys are simply snapshots in time of the opinions expressed by whatever sized group of people being asked the questions. The Pew surveys are widely respected, however, and I believe they offer some interesting insight to persons who have limited opportunities to speak with Mexicans about current events or who are interested n comparing what they know from discussions in their communities against what's being said in other parts of Mexico.

Much of what's reflected in this year's survey results comes as no surprise to me, but there are some interesting commentaries. I’ve been reading the results of a survey released yesterday by Pew Research Center. Some of what I’m seeing in the survey results and which I offer for discussion purposes - should anyone wish to discuss them:

63% are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the country.
56% have a favorable opinion of the United States.
62% describe the current economic situation in Mexico as bad.
51% expect the economy to improve in the next year.
99% describe crime as a problem. 73% say it’s a “very big problem”
91% believe the corruption of political leaders is a big or very big problem.
86% believe terrorism is a big or very big problem.
79% describe people leaving Mexico for jobs in other countries a big or very big problem.
89% believe pollution is a big or very big problem.
96% describe human rights violations by military and/or police big or very big problems.
56% say they’re afraid to walk in any area within a km. of their home alone at night.
The PRD is thought to be least effective in dealing with unemployment, fighting crime or dealing with corruption, by a wide margin.
60% describe the influence of the media has as good.
51% describe the court system as having a bad influence on the nation.
58% believe the police are a bad influence on the nation.
58% have a favorable opinion of President Calderon.
56% have a favorable opinion of PRI Presidential candidate Enrique Peña Nieto.
54% have an unfavorable opinion of PAN Presidential candidate Josefina Vazquez Mota.
60% have an unfavorable opinion of PRD Presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador.
53% think they would have a better life if they lived in the United States. 14% think it would be worse.
38% would leave Mexico to live in the USA given the opportunity. 50% would do so illegally.
80% support the use of the military to fight drug traffickers.
47% believe President Calderon has been making progress in the fight against drug traffickers.
75% would support the USA training Mexican military and police to fight drug traffickers.
33% support the deployment of USA military on Mexican soil to fight drug traffickers.

Here's a link to the survey, questions and responses: http://tinyurl.com/7cl2k6q


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## FHBOY (Jun 15, 2010)

:clap2: Thx for digging this up - it is very interesting.


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## Isla Verde (Oct 19, 2011)

Longford said:


> 38% would leave Mexico to live in the USA given the opportunity. 50% would do so illegally.


Does this mean 50% of the 38%?


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## tepetapan (Sep 30, 2010)

After checking out the PEW group and finding they are a Washington DC based think tank and their political leanings I went to the link.
One thing intresting, at the bottom half of the fast loading pdf, is that the percentages only changed a couple points throughout the history of the survey. The first reported survey done in 2002, a 4 year gap, and then nearly yearly since 2007. 
Reading the OP´s post made me think at first, "wow" in some cases but going to the link I found nothing much has changed in the thoughts and minds of Mexicans.
The one thing that I wonder about is why PEW, around for over 60 years, decided to start tracking the attitudes and thoughts of their next door neighbor Mexico beginning in 2002....right after Fox was elected.


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## Longford (May 25, 2012)

Isla Verde said:


> Does this mean 50% of the 38%?


Having just checked the survey questions again:

Here's the question, following the one which elicited the 38% answer:

"Q136 Ask if respondent wants to go live in the United States: And would you be inclined to go work and live in the U.S. without authorization?"

So, I think the answer is 50% of the 38%.


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## tepetapan (Sep 30, 2010)

Longford said:


> Having just checked the survey questions again:
> 
> Here's the question, following the one which elicited the 38% answer:
> 
> ...


"Even though many believe life is better for
those who emigrate to the U.S., most Mexicans
(61%) say they would not move to the U.S.,
even if they had the means and opportunity to
do so. Among the substantial minority who
would move, half say they would emigrate
without authorization (19% of the total
population). These attitudes are unchanged
since last year"
page 9 of the survey .. click the link, the op is a bit misleading if you don´t .


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## kazslo (Jun 7, 2010)

I love page 13 - It answers the majority of my concerns when I read surveys - namely who does the data actually represent.



> Results for the survey in Mexico are based on 1,200 face-to-face interviews conducted March 20 to April 2, 2012. The survey is representative of the country’s adult population. It uses a
> multi-stage cluster sample stratified by region and proportional to population size and
> urban/rural population. All interviews were conducted in Spanish.


Very interesting reading. I wonder what the 17% of people who don't support millitary fighting in the drug war suggest be done. Also, 62% say that terrorism is a very big problem. I haven't heard much terrorism talk in Mexico, at least not like it is discussed and feared in the US. Maybe the Mexican population thinks of terrorism as something different than what I consider it to be.


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## TundraGreen (Jul 15, 2010)

tepetapan said:


> "Even though many believe life is better for
> those who emigrate to the U.S., most Mexicans
> (61%) say they would not move to the U.S.,
> even if they had the means and opportunity to
> ...


I don't understand. Except for rounding errors, 61% saying they would not move is the same as 38% saying they would. And 50% of 38% is 19%. So what is misleading?


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## Longford (May 25, 2012)

kazslo said:


> Also, 62% say that terrorism is a very big problem. I haven't heard much terrorism talk in Mexico, at least not like it is discussed and feared in the US. Maybe the Mexican population thinks of terrorism as something different than what I consider it to be.


I hear terrorism talk in Mexico, and by Mexicans in the USA. They sometimes term it a bit differently, though. President Calderon frequently describes the violence using "Terrorist," or "Terrorists." I hear some expats use the same description. I believe using that description for much of the violence taking place is accurate. For how much my opinion matters in the grand scheme of things.


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## conorkilleen (Apr 28, 2010)

Longford said:


> I hear terrorism talk in Mexico, and by Mexicans in the USA. They sometimes term it a bit differently, though. President Calderon frequently describes the violence using "Terrorist," or "Terrorists." I hear some expats use the same description. I believe using that description for much of the violence taking place is accurate. For how much my opinion matters in the grand scheme of things.


I also classify firebombing/grenading public places/government buildings, casinos, kidnapping random people and political figures, random extortion, and forced home invasions as acts of terrorism. Not sure who wouldn't.


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## tepetapan (Sep 30, 2010)

TundraGreen said:


> I don't understand. Except for rounding errors, 61% saying they would not move is the same as 38% saying they would. And 50% of 38% is 19%. So what is misleading?


 It is 38% saying they would move to the USA. Of that group 19% said they would do it illegally. The 38% group who answered YES are now 100% of the people who were asked if they would do it illegally. The 61% who said they would not consider moving were never asked the second question. It is 19% of the 38% who answered YES to the first question. There is no 50%


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## tepetapan (Sep 30, 2010)

.....


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## TundraGreen (Jul 15, 2010)

tepetapan said:


> It is 38% saying they would move to the USA. Of that group 19% said they would do it illegally. The 38% group who answered YES are now 100% of the people who were asked if they would do it illegally. The 61% who said they would not consider moving were never asked the second question. It is 19% of the 38% who answered YES to the first question. There is no 50%


On Page 9 of the survey is says:
"Even though many believe life is better for those who emigrate to the U.S., most Mexicans (61%) say they would not move to the U.S., even if they had the means and opportunity to do so. Among the substantial minority who would move, *half* say they would emigrate without authorization (19% of the total population). These attitudes are unchanged since last year." [emphasis added]


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## tepetapan (Sep 30, 2010)

TundraGreen said:


> On Page 9 of the survey is says:
> "Even though many believe life is better for those who emigrate to the U.S., most Mexicans (61%) say they would not move to the U.S., even if they had the means and opportunity to do so. Among the substantial minority who would move, *half* say they would emigrate without authorization (19% of the total population). These attitudes are unchanged since last year." [emphasis added]


Yes, you are correct. When I read 19% of the total it seems I was not thinking. The pie graph shows it clearly. Almost half of the 38% who would go north would go as an illegal. So it is about 50% of those wanting to go would do so illegally and 19& of the total population.


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## adamathefrog (Dec 4, 2010)

My experience suggests that a fair few of these would get opposite results in Yucatan. It's a big country!


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## Isla Verde (Oct 19, 2011)

adamathefrog said:


> My experience suggests that a fair few of these would get opposite results in Yucatan. It's a big country!


An excellent point, Sr. Rana. It would be interesting to see a breakdown by region of the percentage of the population that would emigrate to the US if given the chance.


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## mickisue1 (Mar 10, 2012)

tepetapan said:


> After checking out the PEW group and finding they are a Washington DC based think tank and their political leanings I went to the link.
> One thing intresting, at the bottom half of the fast loading pdf, is that the percentages only changed a couple points throughout the history of the survey. The first reported survey done in 2002, a 4 year gap, and then nearly yearly since 2007.
> Reading the OP´s post made me think at first, "wow" in some cases but going to the link I found nothing much has changed in the thoughts and minds of Mexicans.
> The one thing that I wonder about is why PEW, around for over 60 years, decided to start tracking the attitudes and thoughts of their next door neighbor Mexico beginning in 2002....right after Fox was elected.


Probably because someone started paying them to do so.

PEW is a highly respected, non-partisan research group in the US. Somebody wanted to track attitudes in MX towards a plethora of issues.

For all we know, it was Fox's party. 

But surveys, especially of this breadth, don't get done for the benefit of the researchers. They get done for the price that will be paid for the information.


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## FHBOY (Jun 15, 2010)

The fact that it has generated so much intelligent discussion is really fabulous. My question is the location of the sampling. As someone pointed out Yucatan citizens may feel differently that Michoacan people. So, like any poll, Pew or otherwise, it is better to accept it as "a view" of the sampling, rather than "the view" of the country. 

What it said to me was that like USAers, Mexicans know that their place is not perfect, yet the impetus to move is not great enough to have them leave their home. I suspect that 90% of the people we know in the USA and Canada have about the same feeling.

Oh and from reading the news and such, the Mexican government defines "terrorism" differently than the USA, they use the term for domestic terrorists primarily. When you think of Oklahoma City, Virginia Tech, Atlanta, the DC shooters etc. they are not too far off. A lot of terrorism, even in the USA, is home grown.


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## mickisue1 (Mar 10, 2012)

Isla Verde said:


> An excellent point, Sr. Rana. It would be interesting to see a breakdown by region of the percentage of the population that would emigrate to the US if given the chance.


Found it: 

2012 Pew Global Attitudes Survey in Mexico Survey Methods

The survey in Mexico is part of the larger Spring 2012 Pew Global Attitudes survey conducted in 21 countries under the direction of Princeton Survey Research Associates International.

Results for the survey in Mexico are based on 1,200 face-to-face interviews conducted March 20 to April 2, 2012. The survey is representative of the country’s adult population. It uses a multi-stage cluster sample stratified by region and proportional to population size and urban/rural population. All interviews were conducted in Spanish.

The margin of sampling error is ±3.8 percentage points. For the results based on the full sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus the margin of error. In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

So, it appears that the polling was done countrywide, with breakdown not available, although the representative sample was as close as they could get to a snapshot of the population of the country.


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## Longford (May 25, 2012)

FHBOY said:


> Oh and from reading the news and such, the Mexican government defines "terrorism" differently than the USA, they use the term for domestic terrorists primarily. When you think of Oklahoma City, Virginia Tech, Atlanta, the DC shooters etc. they are not too far off. A lot of terrorism, even in the USA, is home grown.


I don't think "terrorism" is defined any differently in Mexico than it is in the USA. It is what it is. Mexico has seen more of it than the USA has, however. Much of the violence perpetrated by the drug cartels is meant to terrorize the various segments of the Mexican population. And they've succeeded, for the most part.


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## conklinwh (Dec 19, 2009)

Isla Verde said:


> Does this mean 50% of the 38%?


Yes!


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## conklinwh (Dec 19, 2009)

A lot of these are very interesting. I'm surprised about view of Calderon and use of the military.
Clearly they have geographic breakdowns as reference in a few questions but probably they are smaller sample sizes with a different margin of error.


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## Grizzy (Nov 8, 2010)

Was Mexico the only country surveyed in this manner? I would be curious to read any other countries results on research by this group. 1200 seems a small sampling given the population of the country.


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## tepetapan (Sep 30, 2010)

tepetapan said:


> It is 38% saying they would move to the USA. Of that group 19% said they would do it illegally. The 38% group who answered YES are now 100% of the people who were asked if they would do it illegally. The 61% who said they would not consider moving were never asked the second question. It is 19% of the 38% who answered YES to the first question. There is no 50%


Let me put this out publiclly. I am a bit embarressed of my post. I was and still am in denial. I mean, living full time in Mexico nearly 10 years I KNOW of only one person who made that choice. Plus the fact that it has been reported for about a year that USA is at a zero or negitive immigration from people of Mexico. I guess my mind finds it hard to believe that 1 out of 5 people on the street would even consider crossing to the "other side" illegally with all the anti Mexican laws and feelings up there which is widely reported on TV here in Mexico.


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## adamathefrog (Dec 4, 2010)

tepetapan said:


> Let me put this out publiclly. I am a bit embarressed of my post. I was and still am in denial. I mean, living full time in Mexico nearly 10 years I KNOW of only one person who made that choice. Plus the fact that it has been reported for about a year that USA is at a zero or negitive immigration from people of Mexico. I guess my mind finds it hard to believe that 1 out of 5 people on the street would even consider crossing to the "other side" illegally with all the anti Mexican laws and feelings up there which is widely reported on TV here in Mexico.


This is probably partly down to social circles. Our viewpoint of the society we live in is coloured very heavily by the relatively small group of people we socialise with.

There's also the effect that what people answer in a survey is often very different from what they would do in reality. I suspect half of the UK population would answer "yes" to whether they would consider moving to Australia, just because "moving to Australia" is still considered a positive thing to do in the UK because of the emigration there decades ago.


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## conklinwh (Dec 19, 2009)

tepetapan said:


> Let me put this out publiclly. I am a bit embarressed of my post. I was and still am in denial. I mean, living full time in Mexico nearly 10 years I KNOW of only one person who made that choice. Plus the fact that it has been reported for about a year that USA is at a zero or negitive immigration from people of Mexico. I guess my mind finds it hard to believe that 1 out of 5 people on the street would even consider crossing to the "other side" illegally with all the anti Mexican laws and feelings up there which is widely reported on TV here in Mexico.


This doesn't surprise me in the least. May have different regional and socio economic differences but at least in our small town, I'm not surprised that 19% would go illegally, given no legal option, if had the chance. Last phrase is important. Our little town and at least the surrounding area had a very significant population in the US illegally. Many of those have come back for lack of job reasons but certainly would go back if had the opportunity. In talking with some that had been in the US extensively, the biggest stumbling block appears to be the cartels. They know that they need pay a coyote but now the cartels, especially the Zetas in Nuevo Leon & Tamaulipas have imposed even a higher tax. A person that has done some electrical work for us and speaks fluent English, had a job offer in the US if he could get there. He arranged with a coyote but only made it as far as Ciudad Victoria where the Zetas wanted so much that he had to turn back.
I think that the whole immigration situation a mess but interestingly as a lot in the survey, most people here want to work in the US but return. They really think that something like a guest worker(my words) that would allow them to work in the US and return is the right answer. However, what we now have is a guest worker program that is so corrupt on both ends as to be almost useless.


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## Longford (May 25, 2012)

Grizzy said:


> Was Mexico the only country surveyed in this manner? I would be curious to read any other countries results on research by this group. 1200 seems a small sampling given the population of the country.


Mexico was not the only country surveyed. Here's a link to the PEW Global Attitudes website which provides more details:

http://www.pewglobal.org/


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## FHBOY (Jun 15, 2010)

Longford said:


> I don't think "terrorism" is defined any differently in Mexico than it is in the USA. It is what it is. Mexico has seen more of it than the USA has, however. Much of the violence perpetrated by the drug cartels is meant to terrorize the various segments of the Mexican population. And they've succeeded, for the most part.


You'll get no argument from me on this, we agree. The USA in general sees terrorism as something from "with out" generally and the awareness of terrorism, understandably, was only raised after 9/11. We all knew it existed but it was a foreign abstract and did not intersect most daily lives. I do not believe that the USA people considered terrorism as a crime from "within", 

But, I digress...

:focus:


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## mes1952 (Dec 11, 2012)

I've come to the conclusion that a large majority of Mexicans (at least here in Northern Baja) have no idea of the decline of the U.S. economy and still think it is the land of milk and honey. When I ask Mexicans here why so many Americans have emigrated across the border they can't give me a reason so I don't think the majority read much news or watch TV news. Many of them don't even know current events here in Baja much less anywhere else. Baja seeds to be more ted from the rest of Mexico when it comes to keep abreast of current events.


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## AlanMexicali (Jun 1, 2011)

mes1952 said:


> I've come to the conclusion that a large majority of Mexicans (at least here in Northern Baja) have no idea of the decline of the U.S. economy and still think it is the land of milk and honey. When I ask Mexicans here why so many Americans have emigrated across the border they can't give me a reason so I don't think the majority read much news or watch TV news. Many of them don't even know current events here in Baja much less anywhere else. Baja seeds to be more ted from the rest of Mexico when it comes to keep abreast of current events.


I have a house in an upper middle class/middle class neighborhood in Mexicali and my neighbors are all very savy on what is going on in the US and in Mexico City and locally. They know their property values have dropped at the same time as the housing bubble in California did, for example and hope for it to recover there also. I would imagine you talk with mainly working class friends. Alan


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## mickisue1 (Mar 10, 2012)

FWIW, the economy is on the rise again. Property values (including in S CA, according to my friend in Orange County) are rising again, and even manufacturing companies are hiring. 

The difference, I believe, will be that the smaller companies will be moving ahead in skilled labor jobs, while the giants will continue to offshore.


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## conklinwh (Dec 19, 2009)

mickisue1 said:


> FWIW, the economy is on the rise again. Property values (including in S CA, according to my friend in Orange County) are rising again, and even manufacturing companies are hiring.
> 
> The difference, I believe, will be that the smaller companies will be moving ahead in skilled labor jobs, while the giants will continue to offshore.


The locals here look very differently at the US, but still feel that a viable way to earn more money if can get there. Yes, we have a very small "middle class" in our small town.
The biggest draw is construction and that sort of a mixed bag. Existing home sales has risen because inventory very low. New home construction, at least in NC where I have contacts has not yet licked in.

Also, per article on USA/Chatteria thread, some 70% of new jobs being created are below what the US calls middle class but certainly a step up in income for people here.

I really think that a viable and non-corrupt guest worker program would be of significant value.

BTW, larger companies are really using automation rather than hiring with not much outsourcing. Smaller companies are also starting with less people because of automation. Those jobs aren't coming back and that much less an outsourcing driven statement than would have been in the past..


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## mes1952 (Dec 11, 2012)

I work in the San Diego area and I can definitely tell you that things are not improving much here. Everyone I talk to is working part-time less than 20 hours a week (so they don't get benefits) so the U.S. economy improving depends on what area you are living. I work in temporary retail positions and things are NOT that good. All stores, including Costco, are defininitely less crowded than pre-2008. 
If things are doing so great, why has U.S. immigration decreased substantially (and it's been attributed to the unimproved economy; and 2) why are so many Americans still moving across the border into Baja. I live in a large apartment building and it is always full with mostly younger (age 50 or less) people rather than the typical American retiree. The Baja government is reporting that tourism has improved; perhaps so but it is a different kind of tourist that does not have the $$$ to spend as before. Businesses here in Rosarito continue to report decreased activity and several I know of have folded in the past year due to lack of business. So it is all relative depending on location.


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## Isla Verde (Oct 19, 2011)

mes1952 said:


> . . .
> 
> If things are doing so great, why has U.S. immigration decreased substantially (and it's been attributed to the unimproved economy; and 2) why are so many Americans still moving across the border into Baja. I live in a large apartment building and it is always full with mostly younger (age 50 or less) people rather than the typical American retiree. . . .


If the economy is your area is still not doing well, what does that have to do with younger Americans moving to Baja? Surely they're not moving there to find work .


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## mes1952 (Dec 11, 2012)

They are moving to the TJ area because they can't afford to live in the San Diego area. If you lived in Baja, you would be aware of that. So things are different here from the mainland where younger Americans move to find work in Mexico rather than the U.S.
If you go to the San Ysidro border any day or time you'll find that at least 50% of license plates are California, Nevada or some other state; during rush hour it's more like 70%.
Also many Americans on government assistance, i.e., disability, SSI, Social Security, unemployment, etc. live in TJ where they can cross the border easily to the U.S.


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## mickisue1 (Mar 10, 2012)

conklinwh said:


> The locals here look very differently at the US, but still feel that a viable way to earn more money if can get there. Yes, we have a very small "middle class" in our small town.
> The biggest draw is construction and that sort of a mixed bag. Existing home sales has risen because inventory very low. New home construction, at least in NC where I have contacts has not yet licked in.
> 
> Also, per article on USA/Chatteria thread, some 70% of new jobs being created are below what the US calls middle class but certainly a step up in income for people here.
> ...


It certainly does depend on where you are located...MN saw construction rise to pre-2008 levels last year. There was an article in the local paper about the rise in real estate sales above $1MM, and that homes in that range are selling closer to list price.

One's personal impressions of anything, whether what constitutes "terrible pain" and what constitutes an improving economy are not nearly as accurate as the data that are released monthly by, among other sources, the Labor Department.

People who come from a background of making a big deal about pain will exaggerate their own pain. People who come from a background of sucking it up will minimize. Just as true, surrounding oneself with those who think things stink will cause one to believe more that they do, and vice versa. 

I'm a suck it upper, both for physical and metaphysical pain, so I tend to counter my own tendencies with data, as opposed to my own beliefs.


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