# Euro / Pound currency prediction thread



## SunnySpain

Hi there,

I was wondering if anyone had any thoughts on the future currency exchange between the Euro and the pound.

For quite some time now the Euro has got stronger against the pound, resulting in many expats struggling financially, if not returning to good old blighty.

If its 126 Euros to the pound today, whats do you think the exchange rate will be come January 2009 ?

My hunch is that the Euro is about to lose significant value 140/pound


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## Pasanada

Who knows, Sunny; but it's time the UK considered joining the Euro instead of pussy footing around! We're either Europe, or not!


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## littleredrooster

Thats the 64000 euro question but the latest figures coming out of the UK seem to suggest it is heading more rapidly into recession than prevously expected.
Could be interesting to watch the dollar,especially when the US election is sorted.
Also when recovery eventually begins, it usually starts with the dollar.


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## jojo

SunnySpain said:


> My hunch is that the Euro is about to lose significant value 140/pound



Why do you think that????

I personally wouldnt want to predict anything right now, I'd like to see the pound gain against the euro, but thats cos we're paid in sterling - wishful thinking!!??

Jo


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## Pasanada

As the saying goes, "When America sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold" Has anyone thought of sending over a batch of lempsip to the Americans? LOL


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## jojo

Pasanada said:


> As the saying goes, "When America sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold" Has anyone thought of sending over a batch of lempsip to the Americans? LOL


I'm no polital animal, but I get the feeling that America is finally starting to lose its self appointed "superpower" title, So maybe when it sneezes the rest of the world will just say "bless you!" and not get the cold this time!

Jo


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## dizzy

I am with Jojo, I am not a political animal either - however I think it will be some time before America believes that they are not the superpower even if the rest of the world knows it to be true. Unfortunately, I think we are all going to continue to feel the cold and flu symptoms of the US for some time yet. All we can do is remember that this is a global thing and that it is a part of the natural cycle. Nothing much we can do about it otherthan to watch our pennies and let our pounds/dollars/euros take care of themselves so to speak.


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## Pasanada

I am a political animal, polictics have played some part in my professional life; don't believe the Americans are losing their power, a lot of stuff goes on thats not reported/does not "officially" exist.....lets just leave it at that.


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## markjd

its all well and good saying join the euro pasanada but if you were living in the UK would you be happy for jumped up power crazy idiots forcing there policies on you, its bad enough with the government here already, brussels has so many dictators as it is. although i will be in Spain shortly i will still run a UK limited company and if brussels gets there hands on things we will be worse off.
I was born on a council estate and have worked my business up from nothing, i think the more interference we get from Europe we will end up with higher taxes and contributing more to the lazy who can't be botherted to work and the less well off.
i don't see why if i am succesful i have to share my proffit with the rest, i am all for staying away from the dictators of power crazy Brusselsx


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## owdoggy

markjd said:


> its all well and good saying join the euro pasanada but if you were living in the UK would you be happy for jumped up power crazy idiots forcing there policies on you, its bad enough with the government here already, brussels has so many dictators as it is. although i will be in Spain shortly i will still run a UK limited company and if brussels gets there hands on things we will be worse off.
> I was born on a council estate and have worked my business up from nothing, i think the more interference we get from Europe we will end up with higher taxes and contributing more to the lazy who can't be botherted to work and the less well off.
> i don't see why if i am succesful i have to share my proffit with the rest, i am all for staying away from the dictators of power crazy Brusselsx


Ooh! A couple of worm cans well & truly opened there. Howay markjd, don't beat around the bush ............. tell us what you really think


Doggy (Donning tin hat & flak jacket as we speak)


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## Pasanada

markjd said:


> its all well and good saying join the euro pasanada but if you were living in the UK would you be happy for jumped up power crazy idiots forcing there policies on you, its bad enough with the government here already, brussels has so many dictators as it is. although i will be in Spain shortly i will still run a UK limited company and if brussels gets there hands on things we will be worse off.
> I was born on a council estate and have worked my business up from nothing, i think the more interference we get from Europe we will end up with higher taxes and contributing more to the lazy who can't be botherted to work and the less well off.
> i don't see why if i am succesful i have to share my proffit with the rest, i am all for staying away from the dictators of power crazy Brusselsx


Hi, Mark,

I AM living in the UK! And yes, I do still say we should join the Euro. I own a property in Spain (have done for a number of years), have spent the past 6 months working in the Middle East so know all about the flunctuations between various currencies. As for jumped up power crazy idiots, well, we've had 10 years of labour rule so far......I shan't bang on too much, I know you have the intelligence to work out that "NEW" Labour are really champagne socialists who couldn't give a flying duck about you or I!

I also, like you, come from a council estate, have studied and worked hard to attain what I have today. 

At the end of the day, the UK IS part of the EU, just as Spain is. IF you think Spain is untouched by EU policies, then think again. Life is changing rapidly in Spain as they, like the UK, have to comply with EU regulations. Don't be fooled that Spain is some kind of eutopia, believe me, the Spanish LOVE their red tape which is also compounded by further red tape from Brussels!! Lol


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## SunnySpain

Hi everyone,

Crikey, look what I've started here - lol 


In reply, I personally doubt the UK will ever join the Euro, especially as it seems mosts likely that the Tories are going to be back in power after Gordon Browns short stint in the corridors of power.

Going back to the currency rates, I totally agree that the US Dollaris likely to be the first currency to bounce back strongly and is already doing so against the pound & to some extent the Euro.

What I think its even more interesting however, is how things will pan out between the Euro and the Pound.

For me, the Euro is about to take big hits due to the economic problems of several of its member states, Spain & Italy to name just two. If I am correct in my hunch then I fully expect the Euro to lose significant value against the pound in the next 18 months. 

If its 126/pound today, then I think its highly probable it will be 140/pound by Jan 2009 and then 150/pound by the end of 2009

As I say, if my hunch is correct, this should major implications for many expats or wanna be expats.

Regards, Dave


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## markjd

well perhaps you can explain to me what you would gain by the Uk joining the Euro? i know you are under senior expat on the forum but does this mean you are retired? no offence meant just thought it would be like more Euros for your pension or something like that? 
sunnyspain, i think its going to be difficult to predict, i changed £7000 to euros last week through a money exchange company (moneycorp) i was advised to buy on wednesday as rate was coming down (got at €1.22) and now its at €1.25 something, so no matter if you go to a proffessinoal company it doesn't always work


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## chris(madrid)

Pasanada said:


> the Spanish LOVE their red tape which is also compounded by further red tape from Brussels!! Lol


Brussels still has a lot to learn about red tape


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## SunnySpain

"if you were living in the UK would you be happy for jumped up power crazy idiots forcing there policies on you"

May I ask what policies you are talking about ?


"if brussels gets there hands on things we will be worse off"

Why would you be worse off ?


"I was born on a council estate and have worked my business up from nothing, i think the more interference we get from Europe we will end up with higher taxes and contributing more to the lazy who can't be bothered to work and the less well off"

If you were born on a council estate then surely your parent or parents survived on hand outs derived from taxes. Thus if it was oky doky to receive benefits back then, why do you have a problem with paying taxes to help those less fortunate now

"i don't see why if i am succesful i have to share my proffit with the rest"

The profits made by Oil & Gas companies are the very same profits that allow them to pay for the services of recruitment agents, thus sharing their profit with you. If they felt the same as you then where would you be now ?

Living off hand outs derived from the taxes of others most probably - lol 

Regards, Dave


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## SunnySpain

"sunnyspain, i think its going to be difficult to predict, i changed £7000 to euros last week through a money exchange company (moneycorp) i was advised to buy on wednesday as rate was coming down (got at €1.22) and now its at €1.25 something, so no matter if you go to a proffessinoal company it doesn't always work"

Cor blimey, just think what you could have done with that extra 210 Euros - lol

Best go to the beach, its Bank Holiday after all.

Regards, Dave


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## markjd

i have never lived on handouts from anyone, i have cleaned streets emptied bins fort for my country.
May I ask what policies you are talking about ?
agency workers get pregnant and then get paid more from the agency than they earned out of them. thats one reason got out the general agency business
if you were living in the UK would you be happy for jumped up power crazy idiots forcing there policies on you"
the reason i am moving is because of the government

If you were born on a council estate then surely your parent or parents survived on hand outs derived from taxes. Thus if it was oky doky to receive benefits back then, why do you have a problem with paying taxes to help those less fortunate now
no my parents worked all there lives never had any handouts just got a council house, its not the less fortunate that are a problem, its the people that are allowed to bread like flies not work and eveyone else picks up the tab, same with the family tax credit which people who have children and don't earn enough money get from taxes, why should i subsadise other people so they can have children.

The profits made by Oil & Gas companies are the very same profits that allow them to pay for the services of recruitment agents, thus sharing their profit with you. If they felt the same as you then where would you be now ?

I don't get this if they didn't use specialist companies like mine they would employ there own staff, have to pay them when they don't need them in quiet times, there overheads would be higher the price of oil and gas would be higher and any way they are not sharing there proffit with me they are paying for services provided, they are not sharing there proffit with someone who sits on the backside watching telly all day not propared to work.
I just don't believe i should subsadise the lazy, the people who can't afford to bring up kids but have them any way and expects everyone elso to pay the bill.
I will be glad to see the back of this country, i served my country but it don't count for nothing
hasta la vista baby


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## markjd

to busy working don't make money by sitting on the beach, unless you rent deck chairs HA HA


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## jojo

Pasanada said:


> don't believe the Americans are losing their power, a lot of stuff goes on thats not reported/does not "officially" exist.....lets just leave it at that.



Well thats depressing! I hope you're wrong. (As individuals I'm sure many Americans are fine and dandy I hasten to add!!)


Jo


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## Pasanada

markjd said:


> well perhaps you can explain to me what you would gain by the Uk joining the Euro? i know you are under senior expat on the forum but does this mean you are retired? no offence meant just thought it would be like more Euros for your pension or something like that?


Hee hee!! Mark, you have made me chuckle! 

No, I'm most definitely not a pensioner (despite being a Grandma!), I'm only 37 years old!  So in answer to your question, I do not draw a pension just yet....PHEW!!!

As I stated before, I own a property in Spain which, to protect my investment from unscrupulous builders/agents, I got a small mortgage to ensure ALL checks on the property legality were made. This means converting GBP to Euro's every few months to keep my Spanish bank account topped up.

At the end of the day, we are part of the EU and I believe to make life easier for it's citizens, we should all adopt the same currency. One day, I will be a pensioner, I don't want to be in the position that I see the elderly living in Spain today.

Jojo, I've nothing against the Americans (I have American relatives and have just finished working for the Americans) but if you really want to know what goes on and whats NOT reported by the press, just do a little research. I've studied American foreign policy and the effect it has, particularly in the Middle East for many years. I've also spent many years in Govt service and working with the Military as well as a short stint with the President of Afghanistan; life simply isn't black and white when it comes to the American Administration.


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## SunnySpain

Hi there again,

In reply to Mark - I see, so you served your country by cleaning streets & emptied bins for for your country also - lol

The services you provide must be useful or the companies would not use you, thats true - but my point is that wealth is redistributed from them to you, from you to the people you call lazy et cetera - thats life and everyone has to pay taxes even YOU and I doubt you will find things all that different in Spain

I would like to pick on a point made by Pasanada if I may - some people think that all their worries will go away when they move to sunny Spain, as if its some kind of Utopia - unfortunately Utopia does not exist, whilst I wish you well in your move to Spain, I think its important you understand that Spain has its problems also. The grass may not be greener, just different !

And if you were moving to Andalucia, Almeria or Murcia - the the grass may not even be green - lol

Going back to your comments regarding the government driving you out of the UK due to their policies affecting your life such as single parents receiving benefits for having children - I have news for you, that happens in Spain also, moreover its a phenomenon that exists in a lot of countries.

I am NOT suggesting that you don't become an expat, but rather making it clear (so you know) that the things you talk about exist in Spain also

Good luck anyway and don't forget to pay your taxes - lol

Regards, Dave


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## markjd

The Grass Is A Lot Greener Were I Am Going, Dont See The Point In Moving To Spain And Living Among The English, I May Be An Expat But I Will Be Living An Hour Inland Keeping Away From The Tourists.
Don't Think Its Funny Having Served My Country, I Am Presuming You Never Did As You Thought It Was Funny?
I Am Completely In Touch With What Its Like In Spain But The Important Things Are Your Money Goes Further In The Property Market, Your Taxes Might Be Higher But There Are Plenty Of Offshore Bank Accounts Available Which Is Were I Might Go.


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## Pasanada

markjd said:


> The Grass Is A Lot Greener Were I Am Going, Dont See The Point In Moving To Spain And Living Among The English, I May Be An Expat But I Will Be Living An Hour Inland Keeping Away From The Tourists.
> Don't Think Its Funny Having Served My Country, I Am Presuming You Never Did As You Thought It Was Funny?
> I Am Completely In Touch With What Its Like In Spain But The Important Things Are Your Money Goes Further In The Property Market, Your Taxes Might Be Higher But There Are Plenty Of Offshore Bank Accounts Available Which Is Were I Might Go.


I wouldn't be gloating about hiding your money in an offshore account, tax authorities have the power to see what you have in offshore accounts and in these lean times, banks are now being told to reveal details about their customers.

Good luck in your new life in Spain, I trust your Spanish is excellent!


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## SunnySpain

Hi again,

I trust you know that the fees associated with buying a property in Spain 
are approximately 10% of the value of the property....

Other than that, I ditto what Pasanada said and thus wish you good luck !


Regards, Dave
PS. Does working part time at MacDonaldo suffice to called serving one's country - lol


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## Pasanada

My OH has been serving his country in HM Forces for 26 years; does this count?

Sorry, couldn't resist!!


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## SunnySpain

Now that is pushing it a tad I think Pasanada - lol

Oh go on then, lets include it along with the usual binmen and grocery baggers



Dave


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## Pasanada

Phew!!! As a squaddie, he often feels his country doesn't appreciate his efforts whilst he defends the nations borders!! Lol

PS, not a bin bag nor burger in sight but the odd firehose when those lovely fireman are striking.........another story for another life, I think! LOL


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## SunnySpain

I know exactly what you mean - lol

I have an uncle who served the full 13 years in the Navy and yet there's all these binmen and bottle washers taken the credit for keeping us all safe from the axes of evil and weapons of mas destruction 

Still, don't you worry young lady, no pasa nada - 

Regards, Dave


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## Pasanada

I was close to slitting my wrists seeing our Olympic "hero's" returning to Blighty today; I turned to my OH and asked him "How many REAL hero's returned to our country today after fighting in war's and received a hero's welcome?" He said a damn sight bloody more than Team GB!! But, our service personnel don't bleat on about it, they simply get on with the job and collect the Queens shilling at the end of the month.

Anyway, rant over for the day, just wanted to get that off my chest!


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## SunnySpain

"I turned to my OH and asked him "How many REAL hero's returned to our country today after fighting in war's and received a hero's welcome?" He said a damn sight bloody more than Team GB!! But, our service personnel don't bleat on about it, they simply get on with the job and collect the Queens shilling at the end of the month."

Yeah well thats fair enough, but does your OH know as much as the binmen and wateresses of this world about foreign policy


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## Pasanada

Hmmmmm good question, well put!! Lol

Just asked OH, he says he's ofay with recyclable and wheelie bins, does this count? LOL 

OH says he once read a book about foreign policy but preferred the Beano due to there being better pictures! LMAO


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## SunnySpain

"Just asked OH, he says he's ofay with recyclable and wheelie bins, does this count? LOL"

I could not say for sure , but I think they might count as weapons of mass destruction or at least thats what Steve the waste disposal technician tells me and he's served our country for a good 16 years now (mornings mainly), but then again Steve also once said that 9/11 could have been avoided if there had been a few extra binmen around at the time - lol


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## Pasanada

Hee hee hee hee!!!!  Time for me to pack it in for the night before OH becomes a home help and has to clean up any "accidents" I may have due to my ribs being tickled!!! PMSL


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## SunnySpain

Me tambien

PMSL = Pasanada must sleep lots, maybe....

Buenos noches y hasta manana


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## Pasanada

PMSL - P*****g myself laughing! (I'm not a net geek...honestly!!)

Buenas noches amigo!


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## crookesey

Pasanada said:


> I wouldn't be gloating about hiding your money in an offshore account, tax authorities have the power to see what you have in offshore accounts and in these lean times, banks are now being told to reveal details about their customers.
> 
> Good luck in your new life in Spain, I trust your Spanish is excellent!


You need to do a little reserch before accusing someone of 'gloating' relative to using off-shore accounts. Many off-shore accounts are quite simply Capital Investment Bonds (known as 'Wrappers') where annual withdrawals not exceeding 5% of the initial investment do not trigger a 'chargeable event' because 20 annual withdrawals of 5% = the total withdrawal of the capital.

If say 5 years down the line your investment is showing a profit net of withdrawals and you wish to encash it the formula is as so:

Say £10,000 profit 'top sliced' by dividing it by 5 (the period of years of investment) = £2,000 for which a 'Chargeable Event' certificate would be issued for production to whichever tax regime you belong to. Gross high rate deposit interest accounts are available within 'Wrappers' and you can still take a punt at equities if that is your desire.

A 'Capital Investment Bond' is simply a single premium none qualyfying life assurance contract that pays out 101% of the value of the bond on death thus sheltering it from all multi national information sharing because it is not classed as 'cash' until any profit is encashed. No 'World Wide Wealth Declaration' is required and it can be sheltered from future IHT liabilities by placing it in a trust. 

Don't just presume that 'Off-Shore Accounts' means 'Off-Shore Bank Accounts', because it doesn't. Me thinks that the workings of the international financial services industry will most probably be a mystery to a 37 year old with no experience in that sector (I had no knowledge of such things when I was 37)). It's only when you have capital to 'Legally Shelter' from the tax authorities that such accounts would come to your attention. And most importantly the tax authorities don't advertise the existance of these products to their prey, becuse they want to get their grubby little hands on your hard earned and taxed money.

A little knowledge can be very dangerous, whilst a little more knowledge can be very profitable.


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## crookesey

The Euro has been having a good time strength wise due to other world currency factors, it can only weaken against a strengthening dollar.

I was all for joining the single currency when a Euro stood at 60 pence and there were far fewer EU member states. What would happen if they let the likes of Poland, Bulgaria and Turkey join the single currency god only knows?


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## Stravinsky

Just got 1.23


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## SunnySpain

"I was all for joining the single currency when a Euro stood at 60 pence and there were far fewer EU member states. "

As the Euro currently equates to 79 pence, does this mean you think it would be a bad idea to join the single European currency and if so, why ?


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## carefreebrit

With regard to the original question of exchange rate prediction, my wife is a bit of a conspiracy theorist and thinks the powers that be are trying to get something like one to one so nobody will argue too much and just accept the UK joining the Euro.
I try reading the financial times daily as my money is in sterling and I have to change it regularly [bulgarian lev for now, euros in Spain /Italy next month]. The pound has already fallen quite a bit and the euro is said to be over-valued, so I am hoping that although the pound will drop again, the euro will drop even more so giving a rate of around 1.35 euro per pound.


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## Pasanada

crookesey said:


> You need to do a little reserch before accusing someone of 'gloating' relative to using off-shore accounts.
> A little knowledge can be very dangerous, whilst a little more knowledge can be very profitable.


Oh, I did my research when I was recently earning a tax free salary in the Middle East but thanks for your advice.

Knowledge is power in my book.

HTH


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## SunnySpain

"Oh, I did my research when I was recently earning a tax free salary in the Middle East but thanks for your advice. Knowledge is power in my book."

I concur that Knowledge is Power in my book TAMBIEN, by Michel Foucault


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## Pasanada

Ha ha!!! Very good, Sunny!


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## jojo

Pasanada said:


> Knowledge is power in my book.
> 
> HTH



I agree.....and no knowledge at all means blissful ignorance - and thats me!!!!


Jo


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## crookesey

SunnySpain said:


> "I was all for joining the single currency when a Euro stood at 60 pence and there were far fewer EU member states. "
> 
> As the Euro currently equates to 79 pence, does this mean you think it would be a bad idea to join the single European currency and if so, why ?


Yes it would be bad for many having their many pounds changed into not many Euros. This is not a change to take lightly and IMHO will not happen as it will have to go to a referendum.

I made my point about the possible expansion of the Euro zone into what could be considered third world economy's. We are still strongly linked to the dollar and in so being could be classed as a special case.

Ireland has started to regret it's decision, as has France and Germany, it might not be a question of who comes in but more of who comes out.


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## SunnySpain

"Yes it would be bad for many having their many pounds changed into not many Euros. "

I don't follow your point - In this moment , 4 pounds equate to 5 Euros


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## owdoggy

Pasanada said:


> Knowledge is power in my book.
> 
> HTH


******! That's me out then



Doggy


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## Pasanada

owdoggy said:


> ******! That's me out then
> Doggy


Don't worry, I find it a hindrance more than a help! I wish I was more like Jojo!


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## SunnySpain

I wish I was more Jojo TAMBIEN - LOL


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## crookesey

SunnySpain said:


> "Yes it would be bad for many having their many pounds changed into not many Euros. "
> 
> I don't follow your point - In this moment , 4 pounds equate to 5 Euros


I'm in a similar boat SS as I don't understand what you are asking. £4.00 divided by 0.79 pence = 5.06 Euros. £4.00 divided by 0.60 pence = 6.66 Euros, I have a feeling for more rather than less, selfish I know, but human nature never the less. I don't see where joining a temporarily strong Euro would benefit us, either personal or trade wise. We trade with many nations not connected to the Euro so a weaker Pound will suit us export wise.

Are you saying that the stronger the Euro is makes transferring UK Pounds into Euros a better deal? At the moment the Euro is strong against the UK pound because of a dire financial situation in the UK (not to mention the USA), not because the Euro has become the new kid on the block. It was touted as being a 'Mickey Mouse' currency not that long ago and I might not vote in favour of joining it even if the terms were favourable at the time.

We joined the European community, not the single European currency, so if people within the community want us to abandon the Pound and opt for a new and very untried currency what is wrong with us waiting for a time more favourable to the UK to put it to the people?


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## SunnySpain

Hi again,

I was really just fishing to see what thoughts people have on the subject.

The Euro is clearly stronger than it was, but I ersonally have a hunch that the reverse is about to happen, thus as expats we should in a win win situation as far as changing into Euros from pounds

Although its hardly a win win situation for the expats that have bought properties as they will clearly be worth less in pounds if they sell up

"I don't see where joining a temporarily strong Euro would benefit us, either personal or trade wise. We trade with many nations not connected to the Euro so a weaker Pound will suit us export wise."

Its a good point you make and I doubt we will ever join the Euro, but if we do then its likely to be a good few years before the referendum


Regards, Dave


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## jojo

I dont know if this is significant or just a sales ploy/scare mongering, but we had notification from currency direct this morning of a possible impending lowering of sterling against the euro, and I have noticed that the pound has been down against the euro over the last week

Jo


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## SunnySpain

Its very difficult to say what the exchange rate will be tomorrow, never mind next week, but it seems likely that the pound will gain strength against the Euro in the next 6-12 months - well thats what I think anyway - lol


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## debrajaneorton

Europe really needs to unite both in Euros and power, The USA is a superpower and China will be before long {please don't flame me, my youngest child is chinese} and possibly India but my guess is China will be there before them. The UK is all but a tiny island who cannot rely on the US for ever - we need to get up to speed and unite with Europe if we can't agree on the Euro then there is no hope.........


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## Stravinsky

debrajaneorton said:


> Europe really needs to unite both in Euros and power, The USA is a superpower and China will be before long {please don't flame me, my youngest child is chinese} and possibly India but my guess is China will be there before them. The UK is all but a tiny island who cannot rely on the US for ever - we need to get up to speed and unite with Europe if we can't agree on the Euro then there is no hope.........


Well we tried once and failed dismally.
I think also we should join the € but my only worry is that we'll settle on a rate that aint going to be too kind to us expats


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## jojo

debrajaneorton said:


> Europe really needs to unite both in Euros and power, The USA is a superpower and China will be before long {please don't flame me, my youngest child is chinese} and possibly India but my guess is China will be there before them. The UK is all but a tiny island who cannot rely on the US for ever - we need to get up to speed and unite with Europe if we can't agree on the Euro then there is no hope.........



I disagree, I think it was perhaps silly for Europe to join currencies in the first place. Everyones needs are different and I dont think you will ever be able to "lump" the countries of europe together. France are running the euro-zone at the mo and their needs are not the same as say, Germanys or Spains. So the UK joining isnt really gonna help anyone. 

As for relying on the US, well what are we relying on them for? All they seem to do is drag us into pointless wars, using propaganda and lies, when all theyre after is oil and world domination

Jo


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## debrajaneorton

jojo said:


> As for relying on the US, well what are we relying on them for? All they seem to do is drag us into pointless wars, using propaganda and lies, when all theyre after is oil and world domination
> 
> Jo


 I guess that was what I was trying to say albeit quite dismally, but we do need some allies... anyway I am going off track. 

Re the Euro, I do wonder where it wil settle, hubbie works in the UK and commutes to Spain weekly so at the moment we are getting hammered all round.


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## jojo

debrajaneorton said:


> I guess that was what I was trying to say albeit quite dismally, but we do need some allies... anyway I am going off track.
> 
> Re the Euro, I do wonder where it wil settle, hubbie works in the UK and commutes to Spain weekly so at the moment we are getting hammered all round.



I agree we need allies, I'm just not sure we need to have the same currency! I know what you mean about getting hammered my hubby works in the UK and commutes, so we feel the pound dropping too! 

Jo


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## rjnpenang

Am I correct in saying that the 2 richest countries in Europe are NOT in the European community and do not use the Euro, ie; Norway and Switzerland. Regards Rob


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## Stravinsky

rjnpenang said:


> Am I correct in saying that the 2 richest countries in Europe are NOT in the European community and do not use the Euro, ie; Norway and Switzerland. Regards Rob


Aren't they two of the most expensive to live in?
I've been to both, and the cost of things defies belief!


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## littleredrooster

Stravinsky said:


> Aren't they two of the most expensive to live in?
> I've been to both, and the cost of things defies belief!


True they are both rich which is why they did not wish to share it or subsidise poorer EU countries.
Norway has its oil and vast fishing resources,not limited with EU red tape, and only a small population. The Swiss have their banks (say no more).
Both have a bit of a reputation for being a touch stingy or careful with money.
When I travel through Norway I often wonder where their money goes, as the housing,road maintenance etc appear nothing special and in places are poor.
However both companies and individuals from Norway do make many wise investments in other countries including here in Sweden.


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## Stravinsky

littleredrooster said:


> True they are both rich which is why they did not wish to share it or subsidise poorer EU countries.
> Norway has its oil and vast fishing resources,not limited with EU red tape, and only a small population. The Swiss have their banks (say no more).
> Both have a bit of a reputation for being a touch stingy or careful with money.
> When I travel through Norway I often wonder where their money goes, as the housing,road maintenance etc appear nothing special and in places are poor.
> However both companies and individuals from Norway do make many wise investments in other countries including here in Sweden.


In Norway the Health system is second to none. Apparantly there are no waiting lists. Tax though is close to 50% according to someone I know there.


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## chris(madrid)

littleredrooster said:


> When I travel through Norway I often wonder where their money goes, as the housing,road maintenance etc appear nothing special and in places are poor.


Travel WAY North?. When I was there residents up in the far north (Lofoten Islands UP) got MASSIVE tax rebates on anything related to staying alive. iirc Warm clothing is TAX free - but up North so was fuel. 

The Swiss I know are by no means RICH. Whilst there is MONEY in Switzerland it's NOT distributed wealth. Food was horribly expensive. I know a couple of well paid professionals - They live well imo - but not as maybe one would expect. I lived at the time better in Germany.

For a LONG time the country with the HIGHEST per capita spending power was Luxembourg. This is what matters to most folk. But every time I travelled through there (UK->Germany) I was struck by the fact it felt, well, poor. Nices cars often though. 

The Euro has done one indisputable thing. Affect how Banks make money. Ask a Foreign Exchange dealer.

The Euro-dollar has to some extent united mainland European states in the same way the Dollar united the American States. The level of salary and taxation varies HUGELY ime from State to State - the same as in Euro-states. Rich US states DO subside to some extent POOR US states. I used to travel a lot to one of the more heavily taxed US states. But within reason they all speak one language too.

The big difference is that here they're still sovereign states. This allows the control of revenue and exchequer more closely. Two major factors affecting Euro-states cross border business is how VAT is applied and language. 

For a while I was running a business and dealt a fair amount with Germany (And Romania but they had a German account). It's a JOY to travel somewhere on business(or pleasure) and know you don't need to change currency or even plan it. For those NON-BRITs in Europe - this is a HUGE PLUS. I am aware of the exodus from Spain of certain Euro groups - BUT (I'm told) due to a change in their taxation systems. 

iirc The pound was(still is?) held STRONG for a long time by two major factors. Financial Services and OIL. The UK has supported the US financial presence in Europe for years. With a weak dollar this is not necessarily a solid foundation.

Germany has taken a strong position within the Euro sector for financial services and Spains Banks are no slouches either. When the UKs oil runs out............ 

The UK joined the EEC for a reason. Expats (esp pension) income was not high on the list.


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## littleredrooster

Stravinsky said:


> In Norway the Health system is second to none. Apparantly there are no waiting lists. Tax though is close to 50% according to someone I know there.


I was in the tourist centre of Oslo last Summer and the place was a mess with druggies laid about all over the place,dirty seedy side street bars and the roads and pavements an absolute disgrace, yet crazy prices even for a snack in a grubby-looking cafe.
Close to the Swedish border things are better and prices not so bad.
Despite it being Non EU to EU there are no border controls anywhere and have not been for very many years.
Its easy for people in this area to pick up most of their supplies in Sweden where prices in general are now much in line with UK and Spain. Cigs and petrol cheaper and only spirits and wine any dearer.
Worst thing for residents here in Sweden are the taxes which when all added together come to about 50% of the average income.
They even charge taxes on taxes can you believe?
Although not rich in natural resources the economy has held up and the Sw.kroner done very well over the years since they opted out of the Euro.
House prices have gone up quite a lot over the last 6 year or so but still some bargains.
When I bought 6 year ago the trend was still for people to move nearer towns for their work but that has now reversed.
Picked up a nice place back then for less than 30,000 uk, 5 beds,2 large living rooms,3 full bathrooms,sauna,4 terraces,large kitchen,storerooms etc,all triple glazed,large garage,all recent build plus good plot of land with timber in a quiet pretty spot in the dales.
It is however much more expensive on the pretty west coast close to Norway or closer to the biggest cities.


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## SunnySpain

littleredrooster said:


> I
> House prices have gone up quite a lot over the last 6 year or so but still some bargains.
> When I bought 6 year ago the trend was still for people to move nearer towns for their work but that has now reversed.
> Picked up a nice place back then for less than 30,000 uk, 5 beds,2 large living rooms,3 full bathrooms,sauna,4 terraces,large kitchen,storerooms etc,all triple glazed,large garage,all recent build plus good plot of land with timber in a quiet pretty spot in the dales.
> It is however much more expensive on the pretty west coast close to Norway or closer to the biggest cities.



Norway is expensive for just about everything including property and that goes for the South also. Try property hunting in Stavanger and see what prices are like.

Regards, Dave


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## Stravinsky

SunnySpain said:


> Norway is expensive for just about everything including property and that goes for the South also. Try property hunting in Stavanger and see what prices are like.
> 
> Regards, Dave


Ive spent some time a long while ago in Bergen and that was financially frightening


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## jojo

Well the pounds not looking good this morning!

Jo


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## SunnySpain

jojo said:


> Well the pounds not looking good this morning!
> 
> Jo


Yes, its true. However, the dollar lost ground on the Euro and the Pound before bouncing back strong, so I much expect the same or similar to happen with the pound, although not so much against the dollar this time, but against the Euro, which I strongly suspect is the next currency to be hit.

"He who laughs last, laughs loudest"
"the economy / currency to be hit last, will be hit the worst"

Well thats my prediction for today anyway - lol


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## jojo

SunnySpain said:


> Yes, its true. However, the dollar lost ground on the Euro and the Pound before bouncing back strong, so I much expect the same or similar to happen with the pound, although not so much against the dollar this time, but against the Euro, which I strongly suspect is the next currency to be hit.
> 
> "He who laughs last, laughs loudest"
> "the economy / currency to be hit last, will be hit the worst"
> 
> Well thats my prediction for today anyway - lol


So whats gonna happen if, as predicted the UK interest rate is lowered????

Jo


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## crookesey

jojo said:


> So whats gonna happen if, as predicted the UK interest rate is lowered????
> 
> Jo


If inflation continues to increase it is more likely to go up than down. If however GB instructs them to throw caution to the wind, as happened in the USA months ago with the Fed rate cut to 2%, then we might stand half a chance of coming out of this. Unfortunately the government have squandered the *taxpayers* money, they even flogged off *our * gold reserves at a knock down price of $200 an ounce. I would be very surprised to see more than a 0.25% drop in the BOEBR.

The pound falling sharply comes from the chancellor making a public statement to the effect that the electorate were p----d off with the government and that we were in our worst financial crisis for 60 years. I was 14 months old 60 years ago but know that most folk post war had ****** all to lose, it was a completely different world. So you can thank Mr Darling for making your pounds worth even less against the euro. 

Might I suggest Jo that you pour yourself a large glass of wine and go outside and relax in the late afternoon sun, not forgetting to give Mr Brown and Mr Darling the customary salute?


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## SunnySpain

Good news for all expats, the exchange rate is now 1.13 Euros to the Pound.

Is this the start of the recovery I wonder


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## jojo

SunnySpain said:


> Good news for all expats, the exchange rate is now 1.13 Euros to the Pound.
> 
> Is this the start of the recovery I wonder



I´ve been watching it closely this last week and yes, it appears to be creeping up! I reckon that it will slowly carry on creeping until "something" happens ie UK budget, enterest rate reviews... and then....... well I guess it depends on what happens, it´ll either shoot up or plummet, but I´m confident that it´ll shoot up!!!!?? I´m blonde tho and havent got much of a clue really!?  I think that the UK is gonna have to start to put the interest rate back up now tho, the time is right! and that should strengthen the pound!

Jo


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## SunnySpain

jojo said:


> I think that the UK is gonna have to start to put the interest rate back up now tho, the time is right! and that should strengthen the pound!
> 
> Jo



Hiya Jojo,

Yes, I think you may well be right on that one.

From an expat point of view, I think its important the Pound re-gains its strength
over the Euro, not only for us (current expats), but also for future expats and quite possibly more importantly for the "economy of Spain" itself - as without the influx of expats its hard to see how the current economic climate can improve.

In my view, Spain needs more expats to come over and buy up much of the empty and un-finished properties that are currently surplus to requirements 
in order for the construction industry to start moving again (in the South).

Its just a hunch, but I can see 1.20 Euros to the Pound by the end of May )

Dave - its good to talk


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## Xose

The bad news is that it was around 1.15 less than two months ago. Then I needed to do a transfer and BINGO, 1.07 before you know it

I think the ECB's been messing around not lowering its rates long enough, the UK has no more to lower and most of the bad news from the UK is out, whilst the Eurozone has yet to release more bad news - so signs are good.

Also, the likes of Tesco and British Airways are back on the BUY ratings in the stock market, so a few more UK company ratings like this will do the Pound the world of good. Not to mention some really good first quarter results from the US, where a lot of UK money is invested.

However, more bad news also is that the past week or two has seen silly Bull Market levels (some Spanish banks making 50% on their share price in two weeks) so a correction is seen as inevitable. Some say that correction might be frightening following the not too old negative market attitude and this could fuel a fear drop of as much as 30%. If this happens in Euroland and not on the Footsie, that could be good for the Pound... but that's a big if!

Another much bigger worry is, when the pound eventually does get back to 1.3 plus €, and the Crisis is seen as almost over (a while off yet!) we may well need the extra cash as the new danger is inflation at silly levels to pay for all the cash that's been printed and thrown around to salvage this mess.

Let's hope Mr Brown and Mr Trichet can keep a cool head and maintain the need for people to have cash to spend (just the right amount and not via loans) to keep the system afloat - this way, we may stand a chance at a cool recovery with less inflation and not a big bang recovery with massive inflation to follow.

I'm off to fill the car up and see what the petrol price is today, whilst waiting to see if the Spanish government are going to do anything about the price fixing by the petrol co's - they've been on about it long enough


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## jojo

SunnySpain said:


> Hiya Jojo,
> 
> Yes, I think you may well be right on that one.
> 
> From an expat point of view, I think its important the Pound re-gains its strength
> over the Euro, not only for us (current expats), but also for future expats and quite possibly more importantly for the "economy of Spain" itself - as without the influx of expats its hard to see how the current economic climate can improve.
> 
> In my view, Spain needs more expats to come over and buy up much of the empty and un-finished properties that are currently surplus to requirements
> in order for the construction industry to start moving again (in the South).
> 
> Its just a hunch, but I can see 1.20 Euros to the Pound by the end of May )
> 
> Dave - its good to talk


I know, its very easy to see it from us "expats" viewpoint and I often wonder whether my views are just based on my wishful thinking. The view from the UK of course is that while the pound is fairly weak, it makes UK exports stronger on the world market - that said, the UK doesnt have any major export industries anymore, but there are lots and lots of smaller ones that are "cashing in" on the current situation (my husband for one!!).

But to get the world back on course, the pound needs to be stronger, it needs the investment.

Its almost like a big "bounce". Drop the pound and take it to the bottom to let it bounce back naturally!????

Jo - yes it is good to talk


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## jojo

Xose said:


> I'm off to fill the car up and see what the petrol price is today, whilst waiting to see if the Spanish government are going to do anything about the price fixing by the petrol co's - they've been on about it long enough



That annoys me, the price of crude is down to (recent) record lows, yet petrol seems to be creeping up. Two weeks ago it was 0.82€ and now its 0.87€... why????

Jo


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## SunnySpain

jojo said:


> That annoys me, the price of crude is down to (recent) record lows, yet petrol seems to be creeping up. Two weeks ago it was 0.82€ and now its 0.87€... why????
> 
> Jo



Yes, it is annoying, but it was 1.37 Euros a litre not that long ago, but for sure there's something not quite right or possibly corrupt shall we say


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## Tallulah

Xose said:


> Also, the likes of Tesco and British Airways are back on the BUY ratings in the stock market, so a few more UK company ratings like this will do the Pound the world of good. Not to mention some really good first quarter results from the US, where a lot of UK money is invested.



Xose,

I notice that the much awaited results of this morning have just been posted on Citigroup and General Electric in the US and both have come in above expectations. Could well be we're seeing the start of recovery in the US then. Unfortunately, even the Spanish powers that be have made noises about 2012 for Spain for recovery, so we may have to bide our time a little longer here, and any "up's" as you say may well be dangerous for jumping in and seeing it as the start of a recovery just yet. I think the term used by Sky Finance pundits for these (false) up's is "mugs bait" ?!?! 

Regards,
Tallulah.x


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## jojo

I cant help feeling tho that every time the pound looks like its going up against the euro, the governemtn and media conspire to produce some bad news which knocks it back down again. Its happened sooooo many times recently, I´m just waiting to see if they do it again!!

Jo


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## Xose

My_Name_is_Tallulah said:


> Xose,
> 
> I notice that the much awaited results of this morning have just been posted on Citigroup and General Electric in the US and both have come in above expectations. Could well be we're seeing the start of recovery in the US then. Unfortunately, even the Spanish powers that be have made noises about 2012 for Spain for recovery, so we may have to bide our time a little longer here, and any "up's" as you say may well be dangerous for jumping in and seeing it as the start of a recovery just yet. I think the term used by Sky Finance pundits for these (false) up's is "mugs bait" ?!?!
> 
> Regards,
> Tallulah.x


Boas nena 
Impressive. Must be one hell of a course this Certified and Chartered Housewive "licenciatura" of yours. I'm well impressed.

Yes, you're 100% right. The number of day traders that have been burnt or bankrupt as a result of these goings on is huge. So much so that they even banned short trading for a while, you might have heard a few weeks back the stops were now off, US and Europe, and short traders can start to ruin companies again. Not the idea of short trading of course but I've seen some Agency activity that you would not believe. Poor old CNMV in Spain doesn't know where to start - but they are useless and couldn't regulate a chimp tea party much less the stock exchange in Spain - so yes, definetely stay off the Ibex sauce for quite a while yet unless you really know your onions and have a lot of money to stay dormant for a few years.

Salud y Pasta,
Xose


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## jojo

My_Name_is_Tallulah said:


> Xose,
> 
> I notice that the much awaited results of this morning have just been posted on Citigroup and General Electric in the US and both have come in above expectations. Could well be we're seeing the start of recovery in the US then. Unfortunately, even the Spanish powers that be have made noises about 2012 for Spain for recovery, so we may have to bide our time a little longer here, and any "up's" as you say may well be dangerous for jumping in and seeing it as the start of a recovery just yet. I think the term used by Sky Finance pundits for these (false) up's is "mugs bait" ?!?!
> 
> Regards,
> Tallulah.x


Tallulah, you´re frightening me!!! Should you be running for prime minister, rather than wasting your time on this housewife [email protected]????

Jo xx


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## Tallulah

jojo said:


> Tallulah, you´re frightening me!!! Should you be running for prime minister, rather than wasting your time on this housewife [email protected]????
> 
> Jo xx



Best job in the world Jojo!!! Besides, behind every great man.....and all that!

Tallulah.x


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## Tallulah

Xose said:


> Boas nena
> Impressive. Must be one hell of a course this Certified and Chartered Housewive "licenciatura" of yours. I'm well impressed.
> 
> Yes, you're 100% right. The number of day traders that have been burnt or bankrupt as a result of these goings on is huge. So much so that they even banned short trading for a while, you might have heard a few weeks back the stops were now off, US and Europe, and short traders can start to ruin companies again. Not the idea of short trading of course but I've seen some Agency activity that you would not believe. Poor old CNMV in Spain doesn't know where to start - but they are useless and couldn't regulate a chimp tea party much less the stock exchange in Spain - so yes, definetely stay off the Ibex sauce for quite a while yet unless you really know your onions and have a lot of money to stay dormant for a few years.
> 
> Salud y Pasta,
> Xose


Home! Vaiche ben? 

I have to admit I don't have any trading experience, but with all that's going down with the crisis, I like to have a look at Intereconomia and the like TV channels as they're a fairly good window as to what is going on. 

I did quite enjoy Million Dollar Trader (UK TV) recently though, but have to say that I felt very sorry for the young lady who was extremely nervous from start to finish and I fear that with my little pot, I would be exactly the same. Just about getting my head around bulls, bears and candles now!!

I have noticed as per your recent post that UK news is getting better and European news is getting worse, so perhaps America and it's big brother the UK  will come out first and we sterling dependants will reap the benefits.
Here's hoping.

Sorte,
Tallulah.x


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## SunnySpain

My_Name_is_Tallulah said:


> Best job in the world Jojo!!! Besides, behind every great man.....and all that!
> 
> Tallulah.x



And you have cookies - tambien


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## Tallulah

SunnySpain said:


> And you have cookies - tambien



We have wicked tea parties over here on the dark side......fancy a cuppa?!


Tallulah.x


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