# Worst case scenario?



## infomaniac (May 27, 2013)

After 12 months of looking we have finally found a house we want to buy. (Our cheeky offer has been rejected but hopefully we can beat them down ;-) ) 

Sooo...all good (ish). However I have still got a really niggly feeling about what will happen re Brexit. Theoretically Spain could throw out anyone who arrived after art 50 was triggered,though I imagine that's pretty unlikely. Apparently Rajoy is keen to do an early deal with the UK which sounds quite promising, and we have resigned ourselves to the fact that we may have to fund our own healthcare after pension age, but what do you all think is the worst that could happen?


----------



## infomaniac (May 27, 2013)

Oops I've posted this in the wrong place-can anyone tell me how to move it please?


----------



## xabiaxica (Jun 23, 2009)

I've moved it


----------



## Alcalaina (Aug 6, 2010)

I agree with you that nobody is likely to get thrown out. Worst case scenario - as well as not getting free health care, you may have to find a lot more money to prove you are financially secure, whatever the figure is for non-EU residents (€25k per person??). But if you get your residency while you are still EU citizens that may not be applied. Who knows.


----------



## Madliz (Feb 4, 2011)

There are a lot of Brits in Spain. There are a lot of Spaniards in the UK. It's not in either country's interest to change things.


----------



## Robors2 (Jun 12, 2015)

Madliz said:


> There are a lot of Brits in Spain.


I am sure British government would love to see all the pensioners back in UK.


----------



## Blanco53 (Mar 6, 2017)

Madliz said:


> There are a lot of Brits in Spain. There are a lot of Spaniards in the UK. It's not in either country's interest to change things.


That's as may be, but Spain and the UK won't be able to do a separate deal. The only deal on the table will be between the EU27 and the UK.

Given the state that the Tories have got the NHS in, I can't see what incentive Mayhem and her cronies would have in agreeing to a deal. Let's face it she could cut the cost to the NHS of 1.2 million Brits currently living in the EU. and the 3.6 EU nationals living in the UK......why wouldn't she?


----------



## Megsmum (Sep 9, 2012)

People are not, imho, going to be thrown out of Spain. Rules of residency may well change and probably to come in line with other Non EU subjects. Those of us who live here legally, with the correct paperwork will more than likely be ok. However, we are all only surmising, no one knows what will happen, not even the politicians. As for what is the worst thing that can happen, personally, I think most people are worried about healthcare post Brexit and whether or not the UK will continue to fund pensioners care, they may continue to fund existing pensioners but not people coming here post actual Brexit which simply brings them into line with everyone else living outside the EU. Equally they will probably stop the annual pension increases. Unlike others, I'm not sure the government will make decisions based on either common sense or financial sense, I believe they will make decisions based on what Brexit Voters want to hear and see in the headlines 

" Pensioners living in their villas in Spain or in their French gites are no longer funded by the hard working people of the U.K." 

That's how we will be portrayed by a government who clean doesn't care about us and a press who are equal to badger baiters, trying too whip up tensions


----------



## gus-lopez (Jan 4, 2010)

infomaniac said:


> After 12 months of looking we have finally found a house we want to buy. (Our cheeky offer has been rejected but hopefully we can beat them down ;-) )
> 
> Sooo...all good (ish). However I have still got a really niggly feeling about what will happen re Brexit. Theoretically Spain could throw out anyone who arrived after art 50 was triggered,though I imagine that's pretty unlikely. Apparently Rajoy is keen to do an early deal with the UK which sounds quite promising, and we have resigned ourselves to the fact that we may have to fund our own healthcare after pension age, but what do you all think is the worst that could happen?


Rajoy might be but will he still be PM after the return of Sanchez to the PSOE & the vote of 'no confidence' in him? Some are even betting that Sanchez , who was sacked by the party hierarchy, & wasn't even able to stand as a candidate until the last minute & then overturned what was supposed to be a shoe-in for Susanna, could actually be PM within 2 months. & Mrs May appears to be intent on replicating Susannas feat .


----------



## Blanco53 (Mar 6, 2017)

gus-lopez said:


> Rajoy might be but will he still be PM after the return of Sanchez to the PSOE & the vote of 'no confidence' in him? Some are even betting that Sanchez , who was sacked by the party hierarchy, & wasn't even able to stand as a candidate until the last minute & then overturned what was supposed to be a shoe-in for Susanna, could actually be PM within 2 months. & Mrs May appears to be intent on replicating Susannas feat .


I think you're missing the point. Regardless of who the Spanish PM is, the deal that will impact upon immigrants from the UK current living in the EU will be between the EU27 and the UK.

As much as Spain may want to do deal with the UK, they will be bound by the position adopted by the EU 27 as a whole.


----------



## mrypg9 (Apr 26, 2008)

gus-lopez said:


> Rajoy might be but will he still be PM after the return of Sanchez to the PSOE & the vote of 'no confidence' in him? Some
> 
> even betting that Sanchez , who was sacked by the party hierarchy, & wasn't even able to stand as Sanchez a candidate until the last minute & then overturned what was supposed to be a shoe-in for Susanna, could actually be PM within 2 months. & Mrs May appears to be intent on replicating Susannas feat .


Sanchez wasn't 'sacked' He resigned. The Party General Secretary cannot be 'sacked'. 
His campaign for re-election to PSOE leadership actually began well before that of Susana Diaz.
Neither was Susana ever seen as a 'shoe in'. Quite the reverse, actually.
Have you looked at the polls here in Spain lately? PSOE has indeed gained a few points since Pedro reclaimed his post but in spite of everything Rajoy is ahead and Podemos is snapping at PSOE's heels.
I'm a militante de PSOE and a Susanista so was disappointed at the result of the vote. My local Party, like most of the PSOE local Parties in Andalucia, voted for Susana.
But we lost.


----------



## Alcalaina (Aug 6, 2010)

Blanco53 said:


> I think you're missing the point. Regardless of who the Spanish PM is, the deal that will impact upon immigrants from the UK current living in the EU will be between the EU27 and the UK.
> 
> As much as Spain may want to do deal with the UK, they will be bound by the position adopted by the EU 27 as a whole.


That's true, during the negotiating stage. But once the UK has left the EU they would be presumably be free to make a deal, just as they have done with Latin-American countries?


----------



## Alcalaina (Aug 6, 2010)

mrypg9 said:


> Sanchez wasn't 'sacked' He resigned. The Party General Secretary cannot be 'sacked'.
> His campaign for re-election to PSOE leadership actually began well before that of Susana Diaz.
> Neither was Susana ever seen as a 'shoe in'. Quite the reverse, actually.
> Have you looked at the polls here in Spain lately? PSOE has indeed gained a few points since Pedro reclaimed his post but in spite of everything Rajoy is ahead and Podemos is snapping at PSOE's heels.
> ...


Susana was part of the group behind the scenes that forced him to resign, along with Felipe Gonzalez. She believed the leadership was hers by right. A substantial number of PSOE members think Susana is Rajoy's puppet, "muy derechista" and would have switched allegiance to Podemos or IU had she become leader.

Pedro got 30% of the vote in Andalucia. Interesting that she got more endorsements than votes, don't you think?

https://www.paralelo36andalucia.com/el-secreto-de-que-susana-diaz-tenga-mas-avales-que-votos/


----------



## Overandout (Nov 10, 2012)

Alcalaina said:


> That's true, during the negotiating stage. But once the UK has left the EU they would be presumably be free to make a deal, just as they have done with Latin-American countries?


Unlikely I would say. Any agreement signed by the "27" and UK would almost certainly contain a stipulation that no member state may enter into any bilateral agreements on the same topics with the UK...

Otherwise each member would just agree to whatever, then make a bilateral agreement later.


----------



## mrypg9 (Apr 26, 2008)

Alcalaina said:


> Susana was part of the group behind the scenes that forced him to resign, along with Felipe Gonzalez. She believed the leadership was hers by right. A substantial number of PSOE members think Susana is Rajoy's puppet, "muy derechista" and would have switched allegiance to Podemos or IU had she become leader.
> 
> Pedro got 30% of the vote in Andalucia. Interesting that she got more endorsements than votes, don't you think?
> 
> https://www.paralelo36andalucia.com/el-secreto-de-que-susana-diaz-tenga-mas-avales-que-votos/


Well, I signed an aval for Susana and voted for her as did most of my Estepona fellow militantes...she won our vote. Nobody twisted our arms as has been implied.

I found our local Pedro supporters aggressive and totally unconcerned with any opinion the actual voters might have. They preferred to be pure rather than to gain power, a view shared by many Corbynistas.
If by some miracle Corbyn wins on Thursday I give it a month before his hard-left supporters start calling him 'traitor' 
'Twas ever so....

I think Corbyn's amazing claw back is due mainly to the incredibly inept Tory campaign rather than much of a real surge for Labour but I do think that it's also due to the fact that people have had the opportunity to see that Corbyn doesn't have horns and a tail. 
Problem is, they've also seen a fair bit of Dane Abbott.....


----------



## Alcalaina (Aug 6, 2010)

mrypg9 said:


> Well, I signed an aval for Susana and voted for her as did most of my Estepona fellow militantes...she won our vote. Nobody twisted our arms as has been implied.
> 
> I found our local Pedro supporters aggressive and totally unconcerned with any opinion the actual voters might have. They preferred to be pure rather than to gain power, a view shared by many Corbynistas.
> If by some miracle Corbyn wins on Thursday I give it a month before his hard-left supporters start calling him 'traitor'
> ...


Well, looks like Pedro has decided to abstain in the vote of no confidence, so we're back to square one...

Moción de censura: El PSOE decide abstenerse en la moción de Iglesias contra Rajoy | España | EL PAÃ�S

But I do think he'll give Rajoy a tougher ride than Susana would have.

She was on TV last night all indignant that central government weren't going to give Andalucia the funds promised when she agreed to push for an abstention in the investiture vote. Doesn't she realise that you can't trust the PP to honour their promises, especially now she's surplus to their requirements?


----------

