# Dollar / Peso



## Gatos (Aug 16, 2016)

Tomorrow _might_ be a good time to pull some pesos out of the ATM from your dollar based account using your Visa debit card.


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## Dray2 (Apr 14, 2012)

I just withdrew from an HSBC ATM about an hour ago. The conversion rate online said 19.62 pesos to a dollar. The ATM gave me 18.56 to a dollar. I was pretty satisfied with that.


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## Gatos (Aug 16, 2016)

Dray2 said:


> I just withdrew from an HSBC ATM about an hour ago. The conversion rate online said 19.62 pesos to a dollar. The ATM gave me 18.56 to a dollar. I was pretty satisfied with that.


The ATM gave you 18.56 OR 19.56 ??

Today you would have received 19.25 from a Visa dollar based debit card. Tomorrow you might receive something closer to 19.60 or so (The Visa rate is based on the previous day's exchange rate).

https://usa.visa.com/support/consumer/travel-support/exchange-rate-calculator.html/


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## joaquinx (Jul 3, 2010)

I would buy more pesos, but my mattress is already lumpy from the last buy.


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## Gatos (Aug 16, 2016)

The roof of our house is a matrix of vigas. Makes for a lot of good places to stash those silver Libertads we have been stacking.

Unless you have no faith in the Bank of Mexico (personally I think that would be unfounded) you can get as much as 4.87% on a one year CETE. If you already have the Pesos here, might as well earn some interest on them...


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## eastwind (Jun 18, 2016)

It was a total coincidence, but I was doing a wire of money to mexico yesterday and got 18.73 pesos per dollar spent. I thought that was good until I read this thread...


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## chicois8 (Aug 8, 2009)

20 + today........

Peso drops below 20 to US dollar in banks


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## Howler (Apr 22, 2013)

chicois8 said:


> 20 + today........
> 
> Peso drops below 20 to US dollar in banks


I was just there a couple of weeks ago and didn't notice any reactions or attitudes about it at 18 to a dollar.

Is this new round of falling value causing any new public commentary or on the news?


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## eastwind (Jun 18, 2016)

Some observers have noted a correlation with US presidential election polling. Assuming that correlation implies causation is still always a mistake, however, even though the press makes that mistake pretty much every time it possibly can.


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## AlanMexicali (Jun 1, 2011)

https://www.yahoo.com/news/analysts...o-202534473.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=fb


Price of crude oil dropped from $48 to $43.64 from Sept. 8th. corresponding to the drop of the peso.

Oil Price: Latest Price & Chart for Crude Oil - NASDAQ.com

The article states the opposite that despite the rise in crude oil prices the peso has dropped lately. More main stream news propaganda. IMO


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## Gatos (Aug 16, 2016)

I wish I were more economics savvy. I wonder how much of what is going on in the world is due to the suggested demise of the petrodollar ? What happens when all the oil producers deal in their local currencies and there is no need for the intermediate conversion to dollars ? You would think the demand for dollars would dry up...

This morning the Visa exchange rate calculator I posted last week has the dollar/peso at 19.61. It is a little interesting that that website posted the exact same rate (19.25) since last Thursday or so. Perhaps someone was on holiday.

Finally - I was reading this morning that Mexico has hedged its 2017 oil production at $38 USD.


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## AlanMexicali (Jun 1, 2011)

AlanMexicali said:


> https://www.yahoo.com/news/analysts...o-202534473.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=fb
> 
> 
> Price of crude oil dropped from $48 to $43.64 from Sept. 8th. corresponding to the drop of the peso.
> ...



Oil Price: Latest Price & Chart for Crude Oil - NASDAQ.com

XE.com - USD/MXN Chart


Look at the 1 year rise and fall of crude oil prices chart and compare it to the peso per dollar 1 year chart. They follow each other almost daily.

How the Trump vs. Clinton fight is involved I don´t know how anyone reporting this gets their evidence from. Maybe pure speculation and bad investigative reporting or USA´s entitlement ilk again feeling much more important than they really are in the World?


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## joaquinx (Jul 3, 2010)

It's a bit more complicated than oil. Look at other country's currency fluctuation.


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## DiverSailor123 (Sep 17, 2016)

Wow! Hahahaha The whole world trades with Cuba Except the USA .... I can name others.. 



AlanMexicali said:


> bad investigative reporting or USA´s entitlement ilk again feeling much more important than they really are in the World?


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## joaquinx (Jul 3, 2010)

DiverSailor123 said:


> Wow! Hahahaha The whole world trades with Cuba Except the USA .... I can name others..


Name others so I can follow your thinking.


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## Howler (Apr 22, 2013)

eastwind said:


> Some observers have noted a correlation with US presidential election polling. Assuming that correlation implies causation is still always a mistake, however, even though the press makes that mistake pretty much every time it possibly can.


Yeah, I had read or heard that, too. While there, I was surprised at just how unpopular Pte. Peña-Nieto had become... Something else that was being circulated with derision was that "he" wanted to cut (a) zero(es) off the pesos again, which would provoke another major exchange of "old" pesos for "new" ones. That one sounded more like rumor to me... anybody else heard or seen anything reliable on that one?


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## Howler (Apr 22, 2013)

*Purchasing Power?*

As I have watched the peso drop over the past couple of years from a near constant $12 to the current exchange rate... I wonder about buying or renting real estate and making other major purchases (cars, etc.). Do you find yourselves in a better situation dealing with dollars, or in pesos when making such transactions?

Also, as the peso devalues, how long does it seem to take for overall prices to adjust upward to compensate?


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## Gatos (Aug 16, 2016)

Howler said:


> As I have watched the peso drop over the past couple of years from a near constant $12 to the current exchange rate... I wonder about buying or renting real estate and making other major purchases (cars, etc.). Do you find yourselves in a better situation dealing with dollars, or in pesos when making such transactions?
> 
> Also, as the peso devalues, how long does it seem to take for overall prices to adjust upward to compensate?


We have not seen anyone express any interest in dollars in any sizable transaction.

When we purchased our house we exchanged at around 13.64 or. When we purchased our new car earlier this year we exchanged at 18.64 or so. I exchanged some pesos today for 19.60 or so. 

So - for us it has been kind of cost averaging. I don't look back at any purchase as a mistake - I did the best I could at the time. 

We have a very well-to-do close Mexican friend who stopped by last evening to announce she has just purchased a new home (closing 3 weeks out). She wants to put her spare pesos into real-estate at the moment. At the same time she also expressed genuine concern with current US goings-on...

Regarding prices - prices can be very volatile at the big box stores (Costco/Walmart/Home Depot). Not so much at the local ferreteria or restaurants. Gas prices are fixed here and are not supposed to move anymore this year.


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## TundraGreen (Jul 15, 2010)

Howler said:


> As I have watched the peso drop over the past couple of years from a near constant $12 to the current exchange rate... I wonder about buying or renting real estate and making other major purchases (cars, etc.). Do you find yourselves in a better situation dealing with dollars, or in pesos when making such transactions?
> 
> Also, as the peso devalues, how long does it seem to take for overall prices to adjust upward to compensate?


When I purchased a house almost 7 years ago now, I thought about whether I should worry/think about the peso-dollar exchange rate. I decided I was looking for a place to live and not a currency speculation vehicle so I just ignored the exchange rate and bought when I found something I wanted. At the time the rate was about 10 to the dollar. Since then the value of the house has inflated a little in pesos, but nowhere near enough to compensate for the decrease in the value of the peso. However, I have no interest in selling nor ever will unless something changes my current plans to stay here in perpetuity. So who cares what the value is. It is a problem for my kids someday, not for me.

As far a prices for goods in Mexico responding to variations in the exchange rate. I would say it depends a lot on the individual item. Some things never adjust for the change. The biggest effect I have seen recently was in June when Jalisco got approval to ship avocados to the US. Before that, I believe most of the US avocados came from Michoacan. When Jalisco starting shipping them to the US, the local price doubled and the quality halved. The price has come down somewhat since then but it is still harder to find good avocados than it was before the US market started absorbing the Jalisco avocados.


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## Gatos (Aug 16, 2016)

TundraGreen said:


> When I purchased a house almost 7 years ago now, I thought about whether I should worry/think about the peso-dollar exchange rate. I decided I was looking for a place to live and not a currency speculation vehicle so I just ignored the exchange rate and bought when I found something I wanted. At the time the rate was about 10 to the dollar. Since then the value of the house has inflated a little in pesos, but nowhere near enough to compensate for the decrease in the value of the peso. However, I have no interest in selling nor ever will unless something changes my current plans to stay here in perpetuity. So who cares what the value is. It is a problem for my kids someday, not for me.
> 
> As far a prices for goods in Mexico responding to variations in the exchange rate. I would say it depends a lot on the individual item. Some things never adjust for the change. The biggest effect I have seen recently was in June when Jalisco got approval to ship avocados to the US. Before that, I believe most of the US avocados came from Michoacan. When Jalisco starting shipping them to the US, the local price doubled and the quality halved. The price has come down somewhat since then but it is still harder to find good avocados than it was before the US market started absorbing the Jalisco avocados.


First off - we are fortunate to have our own (huge) avocado tree 

We really like our current house. Although it has no central heat or A/C it is certainly the best made house we have ever lived in - and we have lived in some pretty pricey places over the years. We are in no rush to put the house on the market, but when we do it will likely take three years to sell it (we are a little bit in the boonies). At some point we would like to move into a condo along the Q Roo coast where we can get away from the daily chores and just work on our tans.

When we left the US we were paying $14K in property taxes, $13K in health insurance, perhaps $3-4K for car insurance. We owned so we didn't need windstorm but that might have been another $5K/year (with deductible). Water was maybe 200-300/month. Electric (in season) was 400-500/month. So just look at all the money we are saving


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## Howler (Apr 22, 2013)

TundraGreen said:


> The biggest effect I have seen recently was in June when Jalisco got approval to ship avocados to the US. Before that, I believe most of the US avocados came from Michoacan. When Jalisco starting shipping them to the US, the local price doubled and the quality halved. The price has come down somewhat since then but it is still harder to find good avocados than it was before the US market started absorbing the Jalisco avocados.


My wife's family lives in Martinez de la Torre in Veracruz. We noticed the same thing when they changed their emphasis from cane to citrus... the locals complained of high prices & lower quality - and the owners & empacadores complained about how much their employees sometimes stole from them in the sorting process. Go figure!

Good answers from everyone else about making purchases... was wondering though, do you ever get hit on to make purchases or to pay certain contracts in dollars instead of pesos? For awhile it seemed I was always approached or answered with prices & amounts in dollars until I stopped asking. I started depending on my wife to ferret out such information without my "****** status" tainting the communication. Still it gets frustrating for her, too, when the other party sees us both with dollar signs. 

Sound familiar?


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## Gatos (Aug 16, 2016)

When we purchased the house we attempted to pay the owners partially in dollars. No dice.

When we purchased our car we suggested we could pay in dollars (the dealership purchases a lot of stuff from the US). No dice.

When we had our PV system installed we asked if we could pay in dollars - the inverter came from Austria... No dice.

People seem to be very aware of perceived improprieties in business transactions in Mexico at the moment. 

About a year ago we had what amounts to a general contractor (and crew) do some work for us. When it came time to pay for the day's work - he asked if we could pay him in dollars. We declined.


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## TundraGreen (Jul 15, 2010)

Howler said:


> My wife's family lives in Martinez de la Torre in Veracruz. We noticed the same thing when they changed their emphasis from cane to citrus... the locals complained of high prices & lower quality - and the owners & empacadores complained about how much their employees sometimes stole from them in the sorting process. Go figure!
> 
> Good answers from everyone else about making purchases... was wondering though, do you ever get hit on to make purchases or to pay certain contracts in dollars instead of pesos? For awhile it seemed I was always approached or answered with prices & amounts in dollars until I stopped asking. I started depending on my wife to ferret out such information without my "****** status" tainting the communication. Still it gets frustrating for her, too, when the other party sees us both with dollar signs.
> 
> Sound familiar?


Maybe it depends on where you live. There are very few foreigners in my neighborhood. I know of a couple but never see them. I think there are so few of us, that the sellers in the Mercado where I shop would never think to treat us differently. As far as prices in dollars, I have never seen it. It is hard enough to get change when paying in pesos. I buy a birote (small baguette, I think it is called a bolillo elsewhere in Mexico) every morning and the lady and I are always having to remember who owes who how much. She often can't make change for 5 pesos so either I owe her a few centavos or she owes me.


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## Gatos (Aug 16, 2016)

As I typed my last post I was listening (with one ear) to the TV which is tuned to RT on my Roku box. They are talking about currencies and the guy asks the guest - but what about currencies such as the Mexican Peso ? It is at all time highs against most every currency in the world EXCEPT the US dollar. (And he went on to enumerate all the other currencies). The guest said - yes - you should look for the dollar / peso relationship to start changing to fall in line with the rest of the world. I have no idea - but it was nice to hear.


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## Howler (Apr 22, 2013)

Gatos said:


> As I typed my last post I was listening (with one ear) to the TV which is tuned to RT on my Roku box. They are talking about currencies and the guy asks the guest - but what about currencies such as the Mexican Peso ? It is at all time highs against most every currency in the world EXCEPT the US dollar. (And he went on to enumerate all the other currencies). The guest said - yes - you should look for the dollar / peso relationship to start changing to fall in line with the rest of the world. I have no idea - but it was nice to hear.


Hmmm... does that sound like it will go back to around $12 to a dollar again (soon)?

After I typed up my other questions about dollar vs. peso transactions, I realized that it had not been the case so much the past several years since the squeeze was put on in-country currencies exchanges. No, prices weren't marked in dollars for us; but when I'd ask about real estate, in particular, it was always quoted back to me at an inflated price in dollars. Then in some of the most out-of-the-way mercados, the same thing, even though I only had pesos.

I guess at the time, the dollar was a favorable investment hedge against the peso's value. Leave it to the criminal element to spoil it for everyone else...


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## joaquinx (Jul 3, 2010)

Howler said:


> No, prices weren't marked in dollars for us; but when I'd ask about real estate, in particular, it was always quoted back to me at an inflated price in dollars. Then in some of the most out-of-the-way mercados, the same thing, even though I only had pesos.
> 
> .


Since the value of the US dollar is very stable, people often quote the price of valuable items in dollars such as houses and condos. Although the price is in dollars, it is Mexican law that the seller must accept pesos unless the buyer agrees to a dollar exchange. Remember, if you pay in pesos for an item quoted in dollars, it is very important that you agree on the exchange rate and if it is paid for in installments, be sure to agree if the exchange rate is fixed or can it float with the market.


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## dwwhiteside (Apr 17, 2013)

A few months ago we purchased some granite for counter tops in house we were building. When they quoted us the price, in pesos, they said that the prices they quoted were for that day only since the prices are dollar based. So, since I still have a bank account in the US with dollars, I asked if they would give me the price in dollars and I would pay in dollars. No, they could not do that. Even though to prices, in pesos, would fluctuate daily, I could not pay them in dollars.

There is a very close correlation between the price of oil, in dollars and the price of pesos in dollars. When oil gets cheaper so do pesos. My guess is that the peso will rise again in relation to the dollar when oil goes up again.


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## joaquinx (Jul 3, 2010)

dwwhiteside said:


> There is a very close correlation between the price of oil, in dollars and the price of pesos in dollars. When oil gets cheaper so do pesos. My guess is that the peso will rise again in relation to the dollar when oil goes up again.


Oil, government spending, US Fed decisions, investors, European Central Bank, and, lastly, Federal Open Market Committee. (there could be more)


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## Howler (Apr 22, 2013)

joaquinx said:


> Oil, government spending, US Fed decisions, investors, European Central Bank, and, lastly, Federal Open Market Committee. (there could be more)


Nope, nothing simple about it... especially for the those affected most by it!


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## Gatos (Aug 16, 2016)

dwwhiteside said:


> A few months ago we purchased some granite for counter tops in house we were building. When they quoted us the price, in pesos, they said that the prices they quoted were for that day only since the prices are dollar based.


Earlier this year we purchased a new Japanese car in Mexico. The price changed weekly to reflect the dollar / peso relationship (and it obviously wasn't going down).


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## Howler (Apr 22, 2013)

*Still sinking...*

Here's something from today's news in reference to this thread... maybe more "fuel for the bonfire"?

Fears for Mexico&apos;s economy grow as the peso nears the 20 to the dollar mark - LA Times

I smells quite hypocritical to me to observe the politically whipped-up anti-immigrant/Mexican sentiment that seems in vogue the US right now... only to worry, suddenly, about the impact of the sinking value of the peso. But I guess that's easy to do from the "ivory towers" found NOB.

Don't get me wrong, as much as I'm lambasting such hypocrisy in the US, I am well aware that the poor peso is also a victim of the political corruption found SOB. Lord help the everyday Mexican if / when the US economy "sneezes" or "catches cold"...


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## DiverSailor123 (Sep 17, 2016)

Its been said for as long as I have been going back and forth to Mexico that if, The USA sneezes, Mexico all but dies of pneumonia ...Lets be honest here. When 2 of Mexico largest forms of income are, Tourist Dollars ( USA) and Dollars wired from the USA by Illegal workers, that is NOT a Strong Independently Secure Economy.. 



Howler said:


> Don't get me wrong, as much as I'm lambasting such hypocrisy in the US, I am well aware that the poor peso is also a victim of the political corruption found SOB. Lord help the everyday Mexican if / when the US economy "sneezes" or "catches cold"...


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## joaquinx (Jul 3, 2010)

DiverSailor123 said:


> Its been said for as long as I have been going back and forth to Mexico that if, The USA sneezes, Mexico all but dies of pneumonia ...Lets be honest here. When 2 of Mexico largest forms of income are, Tourist Dollars ( USA) and Dollars wired from the USA by Illegal workers, that is NOT a Strong Independently Secure Economy..


Sure, let's forget about exports of agricultural goods, automobiles, and other manufactured items. I am surprised that you didn't mention oil as every other "expert" has.


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## DiverSailor123 (Sep 17, 2016)

I got my info from Mexico City News..... so go argue with them.. and yes they listed Petroleum among the big money makers as well.. 

JSYK .... 4,000,000 tourist arrive on Cozumel ( Cruise Ships Alone ) each year and spend on average $74 ..WOW the island of the Sparrows known all over the WORLD for Scuba Diving ((Thanks Jacques Cousteau)) has possibly its largest yearly income from Cruise Boat People.. $296,000,000.00 that would be a lot of Limes and Avocado's hahahahaha There is close to 100 Dive Shops ..That's One small island .. a small island that keeps over 100 Restaurant's going full time and close to 700 Taxis...So what might we hazard to guess the Big Locations bring in hahahaha




joaquinx said:


> Sure, let's forget about exports of agricultural goods, automobiles, and other manufactured items. I am surprised that you didn't mention oil as every other "expert" has.


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## Orfin (Sep 26, 2016)

Seems Mexico is having similar currency issues that most serious Oil producing countries are having.

They have their economies heavily tied to Crude oil sales and when crude oil dips, so does their economy. 
Especially bad in the countries with state owned oil resources and production. 
But even in countries with non state owned oil resources and production, they still end up with foriegn currency reserve shortages when their oil exports bring in less foriegn cash or US oil dollars. Most countries trade oil internationally in US dollars and they integrate those US dollars into their economy especially to buy imports. So begins the foriegn currency shortage in the banking system and they become desperate enough to fork over more local currency just to get their hands on foreign currency to keep their import markets alive. 
Countries with very little internal production centers and over-reliance on imports, suffer the most when their oil dollars dwindle. Like Venezuela, Nigeria and others in Africa. Their currencies are in bad shape for value.
Mexico is full of Manufacturing and other industries for export that all bring in Foriegn reserve currency and thats a big plus. Tourism and agruculture are significant sources of foreign currency, but the cost of livng and population size wil determine how much their pot is worth. Mexico has a bigger pot than Nigeria in Africa, but also a larger cost of living than Nigeria. Nigeria has similar or bit higher population but a much lower cost of living and can do well with a smaller economic pot over a lower cost of living. 
So, Mexico isn't as bad off as Nigeria in the same oil crisis issue but Mexico currency is taking a big hit percentage wise when compared to Nigeria's crisis, and thats because it takes more currency to simply survive in Mexico than Nigeria. Inflation in Nigeria is up but still the dollar value increase there is outpacing inflation to favor export markets if they ever get enough exports off the ground where they wallow in import dependency. They even have to import gasoline when they produce huge crude oil flows.
I expect either Inflation to follow in Mexico or the Peso currency to come back up in value. But either way ,i think the dollar value gains will outpace any inflation or currency rebound that comes. US economy will have to take a hit for the dollar gains to fall out. Election season in a real controversial contention can affect the US market. 

Venezuela should be better off than Nigeria but venezuela is the worst. Venezuela played currency manipulation games in hopes of offsetting the currency problems, but that only can work if you have real goods produced locally and at least at a level to sustain all local needs and maybe some export. Venezuela was so fat on oil money it never imagined needing to be self sufficient even to feed themselves, when it could just import from cheaper countries with the oil cash bounty. They also systematically worked their currency system for many years, to try to make their currency strong and thus their cost of living went high. Now they are broke, impotent and still with a high price-tag on their empty shelves. So nobody cares to involve with them market wise. Why pay premium in a broken market? 
Mexico is well off considering the oil crisis overall effect around the world. Even Saudia Arabia who pulled the world into the oil dip, has paid a price and lost some in the game. 
Dollar value compared across several countries -and the dollar value is going up.
Mexico, philippines, Nigeria, are taking dips in value. Many others took dips and have since stabilized in the dips to favor the dollar. The US dollar economy steadily boosted during the oil crisis around the world, kind of like how China was doing great during the great recession of 2009. Oil dollar scarcity around the world makes better trade deals for USA when they tender their US dollars for imported raw materials or goods. People are willing to give more for less dollars. Even the almighty british Pound took a hit not too long ago. 
I still think Mexico is doing alright economy-wise compared to others, and just like China keeps their currency value low to boost export sales, mexico will only benefit from a lower currency value especially since they have such huge tourism and various exports to trade. Currency is nothing, the value is in what you have to offer. Thats why Japan loves the ¥102 -$1 exchange rate and finds it quite healthy for their economy while others fear for their economic lives when their currency hits P20-$1. Japan's love for the ¥102-$1 exchange rate is directly porportional to the value of the products they sell to the world. Top value reflected in their product and not their currency. The countries hurting right now with their currency are those who are misdirected into thinking the value is actually held in the currency. The US dollar is still backed by a huge productivity base so vast that it accounts for Mexico's productivity base and A huge part of China's productivity base.. USA shipped all its manufacturing to Mexico, China and other places, yet still has the biggest economy on earth backed by productivity and premium innovations. China is closing the economic gap but in a haggered and beat up state.


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## DiverSailor123 (Sep 17, 2016)

Don't get too excited folks.. The MNP only went from 19.91 to 19.53


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## joaquinx (Jul 3, 2010)

DiverSailor123 said:


> Don't get too excited folks.. The MNP only went from 19.91 to 19.53


From recent posts, the price of oil went up or Clinton won the debate. We keep watching.


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## Gatos (Aug 16, 2016)

I think this US election nonsense is simply a distraction.

If I were hosting a debate I would throw out questions like;

- What effect do you think the demise of the petrodollar will have on the US economy ?

- What do you think of the world's banks evolving away from the SWIFT system ?

- Do you think we can modernize Africa (1.2 billion people) the way we have China (1.3 billion people) and thus prolong the status quo ?

But no - they talk about emails and tax returns.

Just today there is a news story that Goldman is dropping its price target for oil from $50 to $43 - and another story that the price of oil is already so low that the lack of exploration is about to cause a price spike.


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## Gatos (Aug 16, 2016)

Oil is DOWN 2.9 % today and the peso is UP 2.55 % !?!

Must be Sr. Carstens....


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## chicois8 (Aug 8, 2009)

I am trying to find where that info is coming from. I looked at the charts today and here is the oil close:

Brent down 2.22%
Crude down 2.18%
Mexico peso open today 19.39
Mexico peso close today 19.40 which is up only 0.06% 

am I reading something wrong?


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## DiverSailor123 (Sep 17, 2016)

My Info was off the Asian Market..


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## Gatos (Aug 16, 2016)

chicois8 said:


> I am trying to find where that info is coming from. I looked at the charts today and here is the oil close:
> 
> Brent down 2.22%
> Crude down 2.18%
> ...


Sorry - not the most sophisticated source but - yahoo finance..

MXN/USD up 2.55 % as I write
CL=F down 2.18 %
The USD/MXN previous close was 19.84. The current spread is 19.38-1940.

Ok ?


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## Orfin (Sep 26, 2016)

How did i forget to mention the huge foriegn reserve stash mexico is supplied by US drug addicts.
Its hard to get a read on Mexico currency if solo based on what the legal market is doing ,when they have one of the most lucrative illegal export markets to keep foreign reserve of dollar up. 
Mexico is a class of it's own by virtue of catering to US sub culture. 

Ecuador and Panama use US dollar as their currency. I wonder at what point they decided they had enough US$ circulating to just let their currency turn to toilet wipe and fire kindling? Or was it a special deal with the US government? They don't mint the currency and cannot control it, and thats why shameless US$ counterfeits are all over the place there. 

I'm no expert on this but i suspect that if Mexico laid off for a few months on the drug trade crack down, it could offset any decline of US dollar supply and the illicit revenue would prop up the value of it's currency or just expand the overall economy size. 

Mexico has a real wild card and thats actually an added factor to being able to weather economic changes. It would take a huge dent in the US economy to unfurl Mexico but then the rest of the world would just follow in a global domino effect.


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## DiverSailor123 (Sep 17, 2016)

Drug money has little positive effect on the surrounding area.. These types are not into a lot of philanthropy .. Pablo Escobar estimated he lost $100,000.00 USD a month to the rats in his warehouses digestive practices.



Orfin said:


> How did i forget to mention the huge foriegn reserve stash mexico is supplied by US drug addicts.
> Its hard to get a read on Mexico currency if solo based on what the legal market is doing ,when they have one of the most lucrative illegal export markets to keep foreign reserve of dollar up.
> Mexico is a class of it's own by virtue of catering to US sub culture.
> 
> ...


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## Gatos (Aug 16, 2016)

And at this moment - the peso is virtually unchanged for the day and crude is up nearly 5% !!

Another interesting development today - the Mexican bank auction - you can now get 4.98% interest for a 6 month CETE - up 0.24%.

I believe tomorrow the Bank of Mexico has their big meeting.


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## joaquinx (Jul 3, 2010)

OPEC just agreed to cut production. We need to watch the price of oil closely.


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## DiverSailor123 (Sep 17, 2016)

Why? OPEC exported 33,237,000 bpd in August .. so that's just +or- 4.5% and anyone / country needing additional income just kicks it up 1.5M bpd.. this isn't 1973... Numerous members wanted to cut production an even 2M bpd.. Argentina needs cash..:evil:


joaquinx said:


> OPEC just agreed to cut production. We need to watch the price of oil closely.


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## Gatos (Aug 16, 2016)

It is probably because the US finally sold off the strategic reserves at the lower price... Time to refill - raise prices.

Edit : It has been quite a while - but I though I read that the world's oil surplus was really pretty slim - something like days worth of need.


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## joaquinx (Jul 3, 2010)

DiverSailor123 said:


> Why? OPEC exported 33,237,000 bpd in August .. so that's just +or- 4.5% and anyone / country needing additional income just kicks it up 1.5M bpd.. this isn't 1973... Numerous members wanted to cut production an even 2M bpd.. Argentina needs cash..:evil:


Apparently to raise prices, which went up, and to ease the oil glut.

More here -> Reuters on OPEC


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## DiverSailor123 (Sep 17, 2016)

Yes oil can be interesting but my REAL Interest is if we will see these two crooks _"Neither Stumpf nor Tolstedt will get a bonus for this year."_ go to jail...
Really No Bonus? I bet these two crooks are missing GW Bush right now hahhaahaha


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## joaquinx (Jul 3, 2010)

DiverSailor123 said:


> Yes oil can be interesting but my REAL Interest is if we will see these two crooks _"Neither Stumpf nor Tolstedt will get a bonus for this year."_ go to jail...
> Really No Bonus? I bet these two crooks are missing GW Bush right now hahhaahaha


Madoff went to jail, so there is a chance. Stumpf lost his bonus and parachute. I don't know about Teolstedt. But if Clinton gets elected, there is a chance. If Trump gets elected, both will get the Presidential Medal of Freedom.


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## DiverSailor123 (Sep 17, 2016)

I agree ... Trump is a Total azzhat.. We retired to here.. we came for the weather and to live on the salt water .. We thought we would be here until the very end.. Maybe NOT! We sold or little house on Cozumel years ago, then later looked around at buying on the beach near Progresso.. but ended up here.. Here is SW Fla. and about 60% Republicans.. 1/3 are crooks cheats and liars and the rest are just plain stupid! Sooooooooooooo we are looking at selling and moving to Mexico.. Could be Coz could be Progresso area..


joaquinx said:


> Madoff went to jail, so there is a chance. Stumpf lost his bonus and parachute. I don't know about Teolstedt. But if Clinton gets elected, there is a chance. If Trump gets elected, both will get the Presidential Medal of Freedom.


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## Gatos (Aug 16, 2016)

http://http://www.jornada.unam.mx/ultimas/2016/09/29/sube-bdem-tasa-a-4-75

I'm not sure of the affect on the peso - but it might be time to consider CETES at this point (I've been averaging in for a while now). The next auction for 1 year CETES is Oct 11th. I'm no expert but I'll guess they with return something like 5.4% ! A person could live on that sort of return....


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## Gatos (Aug 16, 2016)

As I write this the dollar/peso is down to - 18.95....

Could it be a Trump factor ?


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## joaquinx (Jul 3, 2010)

Could be! I thought it would break 19 after the debate. Someone is jumping the gun since the market doesn't open until 4pm.


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## Gatos (Aug 16, 2016)

4pm est.


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## joaquinx (Jul 3, 2010)

Gatos said:


> 4pm est.


Central time. 5pm in NYC


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## Gatos (Aug 16, 2016)

joaquinx said:


> Central time. 5pm in NYC


Sorry - you are correct. Obviously I don't trade currencies for a living.

It is interesting that Yahoo Finance was showing live quotes earlier. Can only guess that they base it on London or pre-market ??


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## joaquinx (Jul 3, 2010)

Gatos said:


> Sorry - you are correct. Obviously I don't trade currencies for a living.
> 
> It is interesting that Yahoo Finance was showing live quotes earlier. Can only guess that they base it on London or pre-market ??


XE was showing the same at 3pm. I got a call into a friend who trades rather heavily.

Bloomberg says that it is a reaction to the Trump tapes and it is the Asian market that traded when they opened for Monday. 

Bloomberg


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## Howler (Apr 22, 2013)

Gatos said:


> As I write this the dollar/peso is down to - 18.95....
> 
> Could it be a Trump factor ?


Yes, I've been watching this phenomenon for the past couple of months, too. If he (Trump) REALLY blows it tonight in the debate :tape2: it will be interesting to see how the peso reacts.

This must be great for those who know how to trade in currencies!


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## Howler (Apr 22, 2013)

*The "Peso Barometer"*

I just checked headlines & the peso again before deciding to turn in after the debate & analyses... I found the following headline that seems to support this thread:

Mexican peso climbs, stocks edge up as Trump's chances seen reducing | Reuters

Although Trump seemed to discipline himself surprisingly well in the debate, I think overall the latest "scandal" will be too much to overcome. In spite of that, his most ardent supporters won't care or won't believe it - and it won't make any difference in how they've already decided to vote. I would have called it close to a draw with both parties artfully dancing around each others' assertions & accusations. Still, the peso's value may be a better barometer for Trump's performance:

The peso on XE rose to $19.0383 per dollar (as of 2:30 am EDT). Hmmmm... :attention:

(G'night y'all!)


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