# South China Sea War - Tensions High



## Asian Spirit (Mar 1, 2010)

China has made it clear that it will not honor the ruling of the international tribunal regarding the territorial dispute case filed by the Philippines. Considering such strong stance, many fear that the tensions in the South China Sea region will see a...

Read More Here
(source: Morning News Asia)


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## Datchworth (Jul 5, 2015)

The Chinese claim at its fullest extent is a seemingly ludicrous 1600 km down to Malaysia from the nearest point on the Chinese coast. For comparison the Falkland Islands, claimed by Argentina from Britain, lie about 500 km from Argentina. Then there's also the Scarborough Shoal, very near to the Philippines.
Many of their claims might seem ridiculous, but apparently they support them with maps from 1935 and it's taught in schools. In the light of that will praising the Chinese President get the Philippines anywhere? I doubt it.


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## hogrider (May 25, 2010)

Datchworth said:


> The Chinese claim at its fullest extent is a seemingly ludicrous 1600 km down to Malaysia from the nearest point on the Chinese coast. For comparison the Falkland Islands, claimed by Argentina from Britain, lie about 500 km from Argentina. Then there's also the Scarborough Shoal, very near to the Philippines.
> Many of their claims might seem ridiculous, but apparently they support them with maps from 1935 and it's taught in schools. In the light of that will praising the Chinese President get the Philippines anywhere? I doubt it.


Might get them a Chinese built railway.


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## Tukaram (Dec 18, 2014)

hogrider said:


> Might get them a Chinese built railway.


That might be a good trade


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## Datchworth (Jul 5, 2015)

In Africa the Chinese build railways to bring out minerals to ship back to China. The only difference here is that the significant quantities of oil and gas which might be offshore, and which they want to get hold of, are in a disputed area!

They might offer to build a railway and other infrastructure and heavy industry projects to try to weaken the Philippine's will to ally with the US and to soften up their negotiating position, if it ever comes to that. Rather than fall for this tactic the Philippines should either just live without their railway, or find another country to help with fewer strings attached. And live without their steel plants, especially as the world steel price is consistently low. 

Looking at their various island and atoll projects ongoing in the S China Sea it's obvious their aim is to control the area. They know they will be opposed by the US but the prospect of confrontation may even be spurring them on as their treatment over 100 years ago by the then Great Powers still rankles. They don't like the present Great Power's presence in their back yard and are expanding their navy accordingly.

On the face of it it seems not to be good for their much vaunted economy to pick a fight with the US. But having strong trading links does not necessarily avoid conflict between nations - as Britain and Germany showed in 1914.

Clashes in the S China Sea would have serious local, regional and worldwide effects. For a start, doesn't the Philippines rely heavily on rice imports?


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## Asian Spirit (Mar 1, 2010)

Datchworth said:


> In Africa the Chinese build railways to bring out minerals to ship back to China. The only difference here is that the significant quantities of oil and gas which might be offshore, and which they want to get hold of, are in a disputed area!
> 
> They might offer to build a railway and other infrastructure and heavy industry projects to try to weaken the Philippine's will to ally with the US and to soften up their negotiating position, if it ever comes to that. Rather than fall for this tactic the Philippines should either just live without their railway, or find another country to help with fewer strings attached. And live without their steel plants, especially as the world steel price is consistently low.
> 
> ...


Industries in China make and sell probably close to 80% of the junk that people in other countries buy and use. So yes, a conflict with them would effect the world economy within hours of the outbreak of hostilities. If it were a long term conflict the world would rebound and pick up the slack in manufacturing. 

The Philippines does buy a lot of rice from China but Vietnam also produces an exportable amount each year too. If local farmers here would grow and produce brown rice there would be no need for imports.

I don't see China stopping their progress in the Spratlys unless or until there is a credible threat of war or something sparks a large conflict. In any major conflict there would be many countries allied against China so they could not possible prevail. Hopefully they are smart enough to realize that.
I do think there will be some form of armed conflict in time but just hope it is very limited and short lived. I think we may soon see a greater risk of conflict as the judgment of the international court will soon be out.


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## fmartin_gila (May 15, 2011)

Jet Lag said:


> I think we may soon see a greater risk of conflict as the judgment of the international court will soon be out.


Since China has already said that will not abide by a judgement against them, that will be when we will find out how strong some alliances are. This is coming at a bad time considering the Dead Duck(same as Lame Duck) situation in the states and his backing down as he has done in some instances in the past. I would almost expect the Phils abandonment by the US under the circumstances. I would hope not, but...

Fred


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## Datchworth (Jul 5, 2015)

Yes, fMartin, Obama is a lame duck... then next year Clinton may stand firm but who knows about Trump? I watched an interview with his foreign policy adviser on the BBC a few days ago and am sill none the wiser about what Trump thinks about America's role abroad. 

China may also be upping the ante in the S China Sea as it knows that its economy is not doing so well these days. If growth slipped further down, even only to 2% pa, there would probably be some internal unrest and the S China Sea or Taiwan would be convenient places for China to increase the bullying to distract the population. Convenient, as in the case of their S China Sea claim, it is, according to Wikipedia, taught from school textbooks at age 13. Argentine governments have used the Falklands claim over many years to deflect attention away from their mishandling of the economy.

Also there is an increasing risk of military miscalculations in the whole area - not just in the Spratlys, but around all the various reefs and atolls under dispute.

I think it is soon going to be a world hot spot whether China's economy keeps growing well or not. The question is are we going to have just a few incidents or widespread conflict in the area? Vladimir Putin will be very happy that the US has to commit more military resources away from his back yard!


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## Asian Spirit (Mar 1, 2010)

*China Eyeing Air Defense Zone*

China is eyeing an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over the disputed South China Sea (West Philippine Sea) and is just waiting for... Read More
(source: Rappler)
*--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------*
Already on their way:

India Sends Stealth Warships to South China Sea

On May 18, four ships of the Indian Navy’s Eastern Fleet set out for a two and a half month long operational deployment to the South China Sea and North Western Pacific, according to a recent press statement by the Indian Ministry of Defense.

“In a demonstration of its operational reach and commitment to India’s ‘Act East’ policy, the Indian Navy’s Eastern Fleet, under the command of Rear Admiral SV Bhokare, Flag Officer Commanding Eastern Fleet, sailed... Read More
(source: The Diplomat)


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## Datchworth (Jul 5, 2015)

It's usually the Cavalry that's coming, not the Indians! It will indeed be interesting to see who will stand with the US if it hots up and how stable any alliance will be.


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## pijoe (Jul 21, 2015)

The U.S. hands down has naval superiority. China would be crazy to try anything at this point as their type 94 submarines are noisy junk that we could sink all day long. The Chinese are counting on continued developments to the 94 platform to be able to pose a nuclear threat directly to the United States at some time in the not so distant future. Armed conflict with China right now would put their plans back by a decade or more.


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## fmartin_gila (May 15, 2011)

Datchworth said:


> Also there is an increasing risk of military miscalculations in the whole area - not just in the Spratlys, but around all the various reefs and atolls under dispute.


This is the part that bothers me the most. With so many different Entitys involved in the different areas of the SCSea there is the distinct possibility of some mishap or miscalculation occuring whether intentional or not and this could escalate in a very big hurry. There may be no other options timewise but for us as individuals to hunker down and stay put as far under the radar as possible.

Fred


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## Asian Spirit (Mar 1, 2010)

*US Vows Action*

Chinese construction on a South China Sea islet claimed by the Philippines would prompt
“actions being taken” by the United States and... Read More

(source INQ News)


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## Scott E (Jun 1, 2015)

Datchworth said:


> It's usually the Cavalry that's coming, not the Indians! It will indeed be interesting to see who will stand with the US if it hots up and how stable any alliance will be.


A direct hit by a strong Typhoon may clear out the Spratleys !! Just wait


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## UltraFJ40 (May 20, 2014)

Scott E said:


> A direct hit by a strong Typhoon may clear out the Spratleys !! Just wait


With many of these low lying atolls being evacuated due to rising sea levels, how are these Chinese made islands going to fare? Here in South Florida, the need to dredge and pump sand back to the beach is an ongoing occurrence due to erosion and I don't see it getting anything but worse as time passes.

Mother Nature will certainly have the final word.


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