# pound/euro



## jojo (Sep 20, 2007)

The pound is rising against the euro!! or the euro is falling against the pound! Whichever way, its up to 1.15 this morning, great news for us who are paid in sterling - lets hope it lasts????!!!!!?? :clap2:

Jo xxx


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## lynn (Sep 25, 2008)

It's fantastic isn't it! I read this report which implied that the pound could get stronger against the euro this year, as it reckons the UK is bouncing back from recession quicker than the US or Europe:
UK 'to grow faster' than other major economies - Telegraph

I know that no-one has a crystal ball, but lets hope it continues in the right direction!!!!


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## Pesky Wesky (May 10, 2009)

jojo said:


> The pound is rising against the euro!! or the euro is falling against the pound! Whichever way, its up to 1.15 this morning, great news for us who are paid in sterling - lets hope it lasts????!!!!!?? :clap2:
> 
> Jo xxx


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## nigele2 (Dec 25, 2009)

jojo said:


> The pound is rising against the euro!! or the euro is falling against the pound! Whichever way, its up to 1.15 this morning, great news for us who are paid in sterling - lets hope it lasts????!!!!!?? :clap2:
> 
> Jo xxx


I hope so - well until it hits UK exports. I guess it may help Spain to export more.
Some say that the weak Euro is mainly down to the Greek economic problems and a lack of optimism in Germany.

And that the pound is strong for reasons as Lynn says. And the drop in UK unemployment won't have done any harm.

But it annoys me that sentiment might change tomorrow for no obvious reason. Seems just someone at the Bank of England or wherever makes a statement and the markets react. 

Anyone care to hazzard a guess as to what the pound/Euro might be before end of March? I don't have a monthly transfer so within 3 months can pick and choose when but I get it wrong as much as I get right. So infuriating to see it a cent up 24 hours later


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## jojo (Sep 20, 2007)

nigele2 said:


> I hope so - well until it hits UK exports. I guess it may help Spain to export more.
> Some say that the weak Euro is mainly down to the Greek economic problems and a lack of optimism in Germany.
> 
> And that the pound is strong for reasons as Lynn says. And the drop in UK unemployment won't have done any harm.
> ...


You can bet your life that when I have to do a transfer it will go up straight afterward - or if I leave it cos I think it will go up - it goes down!!!!!

I'm just waiting for Mervyn King to bring it all back down again - he always does!


Jo xxx


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## Hombre (Sep 10, 2009)

nigele2 said:


> I hope so - well until it hits UK exports. I guess it may help Spain to export more.
> Some say that the weak Euro is mainly down to the Greek economic problems and a lack of optimism in Germany.
> 
> And that the pound is strong for reasons as Lynn says. And the drop in UK unemployment won't have done any harm.
> ...


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## nigele2 (Dec 25, 2009)

Hombre thank you for your detailed analysis. I feel so much better now 

Just for the record I do care about exports. Exports mean jobs and I have family unemployed. But I get your drift.


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## jojo (Sep 20, 2007)

nigele2 said:


> Hombre thank you for your detailed analysis. I feel so much better now
> 
> Just for the record I do care about exports. Exports mean jobs and I have family unemployed. But I get your drift.


low pound meaning cheap exports doesnt necessarily mean jobs - thats what "they" want you to think - lets face it, Germany and its strong euro didnt do them any harm - well, not thay'll admit to!! It actually means inflation cos we import more than we export

For selfish reasons I want more money for my pound and it also makes me feel that there is confidence building in the UK - now that could mean more jobs!!!!

Jo xxx


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## morlandg (Jun 8, 2008)

If you 2 guys would let me know when you decide to make your transfers.........so I can wait until the next day!!!
Graham


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## mrypg9 (Apr 26, 2008)

The £ should rise even more after the 26th January when the figures for Q4 are posted. The drop in unemployment, record retail sales and stronger than expected growth should boost the £ further. added to this the problems of the PIIGS in the Eurozone....
The next important event should be the outcome of the election. Interestingly, this week's 'Economist' is not happy with Cameron's plan to cut spending as from Day One as the danger of a double-dip would be significantly more likely, in their opinion.
'The Economist' also supported Brown's fiscal stimulus against Cameron's 'do nothing' proposals.
Interestingly, Obama's TARP bank rescue programme will end up costing US taxpayers less than 1% of GDP. The partial nationalisation of some of the UK's major banks could actually bring the UK taxpayer a profit....


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## mrypg9 (Apr 26, 2008)

jojo said:


> low pound meaning cheap exports doesnt necessarily mean jobs - thats what "they" want you to think - lets face it, Germany and its strong euro didnt do them any harm - well, not thay'll admit to!! It actually means inflation cos we import more than we export
> 
> For selfish reasons I want more money for my pound and it also makes me feel that there is confidence building in the UK - now that could mean more jobs!!!!
> 
> Jo xxx


For selfish reasons I want to see the high interest rates that accompany inflation
Germany remains the world's leading exporter (just) in spite of high unit wage costs because of its high value-added. Why do you and I drive BMWs and Mercedes and not Fiats or SEATs? 
I think we should all be learning Chinese as we laze on our sun-loungers this summer. Beware the yellow peril (is it OK to say that?)


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## jojo (Sep 20, 2007)

mrypg9 said:


> For selfish reasons I want to see the high interest rates that accompany inflation
> Germany remains the world's leading exporter (just) in spite of high unit wage costs because of its high value-added. Why do you and I drive BMWs and Mercedes and not Fiats or SEATs?
> I think we should all be learning Chinese as we laze on our sun-loungers this summer. Beware the yellow peril (is it OK to say that?)


Hhmmm, I think the chinese bubble is about to burst, theres a lot of dissatisfaction with their quality of workmanship and there are a few companies pulling out (even chinese companies apparently)?????

I think your wish for higher interest rates may well happen anytime now which could be good for a rising pound too!!!???


Jo xxx


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## Hombre (Sep 10, 2009)

mrypg9 said:


> The £ should rise even more after the 26th January when the figures for Q4 are posted. The drop in unemployment, record retail sales and stronger than expected growth should boost the £ further. added to this the problems of the PIIGS in the Eurozone....
> The next important event should be the outcome of the election. Interestingly, this week's 'Economist' is not happy with Cameron's plan to cut spending as from Day One as the danger of a double-dip would be significantly more likely, in their opinion.
> 'The Economist' also supported Brown's fiscal stimulus against Cameron's 'do nothing' proposals.
> Interestingly, Obama's TARP bank rescue programme will end up costing US taxpayers less than 1% of GDP. The partial nationalisation of some of the UK's major banks could actually bring the UK taxpayer a profit....


I refer to item a) in my previous post


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## Hombre (Sep 10, 2009)

mrypg9 said:


> For selfish reasons I want to see the high interest rates that accompany inflation
> Germany remains the world's leading exporter (just) in spite of high unit wage costs because of its high value-added. Why do you and I drive BMWs and Mercedes and not Fiats or SEATs?
> I think we should all be learning Chinese as we laze on our sun-loungers this summer. Beware the yellow peril (is it OK to say that?)


I drive a 10 year old Twingo.


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## Stravinsky (Aug 12, 2007)

Hombre said:


> I drive a 10 year old Twingo.


Is that a car?


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## jojo (Sep 20, 2007)

Stravinsky said:


> Is that a car?


Its a chocci bar - a mouldy one !!!

Jo xxx


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## mrypg9 (Apr 26, 2008)

a) have a clue what we're talking about on this subject

HOMBRE

If we adhered to that principle of not commenting because we were clueless about any topic,, a great silence would encompass the globe..


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## mrypg9 (Apr 26, 2008)

Hombre said:


> I drive a 10 year old Twingo.


I drive an even olderr BMW but it will keep going for years yet because of Deutsche Technik!!
We sold the Merc to pay the rent


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## jojo (Sep 20, 2007)

mrypg9 said:


> a)
> 
> If we adhered to that principle of not commenting because we were clueless about any topic,, a great silence would encompass the globe..


My posts would certainly be non existant LOL!!! 

Jo xxx


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## Hombre (Sep 10, 2009)

jojo said:


> Its a chocci bar - a mouldy one !!!
> 
> Jo xxx


It's a bloody car !! and it's our car. And it's paid for. Our daughter bought us a sat nav for Christmas. Our son laughed, and commented "the furthest they go is Mercadona ".


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## mrypg9 (Apr 26, 2008)

I honestly don't think we'll ever need to buy another non 4x4 car, our BMW really will go on for years yet.
I don't know anything about engines but it does seem that VW, Audi, MB and BMW have a certain 'je ne sais quoi' and are reliable, durable and look good.
Or have we just been lucky??


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## sparkplug (Nov 23, 2009)

Hombre said:


> I drive a 10 year old Twingo.


Did you get it out of a christmas cracker?


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## Rofa (Dec 3, 2009)

Worth having a look at this. Not a joke - the notes at the bottom should be read re long term trends. However comparing values of the Pound and the Euro to the Dollar tells us what we all already know.

Big Mac Index | OANDA


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## lynn (Sep 25, 2008)

Rofa said:


> Worth having a look at this. Not a joke - the notes at the bottom should be read re long term trends. However comparing values of the Pound and the Euro to the Dollar tells us what we all already know.
> 
> Big Mac Index | OANDA


Yes, I've seen this Big Mac theory before! Although it first appears whimsical, if you actually think about it, it's a really good way of illustrating whether currencies are over or under valued. The euro is shown to be way too over valued. They should use this to teach kids some of the basic concepts of currency exchange (and I guess a lot of adults too!)


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## jojo (Sep 20, 2007)

It seems to be slipping back a bit today, probably something to do with the bank stuff and Obama???????

Jo xxx


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## Joppa (Sep 7, 2009)

jojo said:


> It seems to be slipping back a bit today, probably something to do with the bank stuff and Obama???????


Well more specifically, profit-taking after a big rise this week, disappointing retail sales in December (only up 0.3% against expected 1.2%) and caution over next week's raft of economic data from UK including 4th quarter GDP on Tuesday (Has UK emerged out of recession? Concensus is still a decline of 0.2%).


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## jojo (Sep 20, 2007)

hhhmmmm - 1.16!!!!!!!!

Jo xxx


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## Joppa (Sep 7, 2009)

jojo said:


> hhhmmmm - 1.16!!!!!!!!
> 
> Jo xxx


I think around 1.1740 (0.8520) is a resistance level, being a recent high last visited in June last year, and if there is a decisive break through it, there is a good chance of sterling breaching 1.20 (0.8330). 
Euro is dragged down by the parlous state of Greek finance, followed by Portugal and Spain. Unless these economies do something decisive to reduce huge budget deficit, euro weakness will continue, I think. But will their governments risk forestalling recovery by savage cuts in spending? Greek government is apparently going cap in hand to the Chinese asking them to buy their bonds.


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## mrypg9 (Apr 26, 2008)

Joppa said:


> I think around 1.1740 (0.8520) is a resistance level, being a recent high last visited in June last year, and if there is a decisive break through it, there is a good chance of sterling breaching 1.20 (0.8330).
> Euro is dragged down by the parlous state of Greek finance, followed by Portugal and Spain. Unless these economies do something decisive to reduce huge budget deficit, euro weakness will continue, I think. But will their governments risk forestalling recovery by savage cuts in spending? Greek government is apparently going cap in hand to the Chinese asking them to buy their bonds.


It seems likely that Portugal will lose its sovereign rating.....
The strong US recovery and the weaker but real UK recovery has also helped boost the £ against the euro and the US $.


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## Joppa (Sep 7, 2009)

mrypg9 said:


> It seems likely that Portugal will lose its sovereign rating.....
> The strong US recovery and the weaker but real UK recovery has also helped boost the £ against the euro and the US $.


Sterling has dropped a little this afternoon, after the ratings agency, Standard and Poor's, said that UK banking sector is no longer the most stable (surprise, surprise), and that unwinding of huge debts will weigh heavily on recovery prospect. But I think pound will continue its upward path, as the reality of euro zone problems is still to be fully uncovered, unlike the UK. Bad news have already been priced into the market (sterling is still 20% down on 2007), while nobody knows how bad it can get in euro area.


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