# Hmm - is there some sort of manipulation going on ?



## MangoTango (Feb 8, 2020)

I have heard it mentioned before and perhaps I even suspected it myself but...

Every month, on the 3rd of the month, the US Treasury gives my wife's social security payment to the Bank of Mexico - who then deposits it into our Mexican bank.

Well that occurred again yesterday, and today the dollar is once again 1.5% stronger than it was yesterday (she probably would have gotten a few thousand more pesos deposited). 

Have a look at Yahoo Finance. The symbol to look at is USD/MXN. The five day (5D) chart is particularly interesting.

Might have to rethink these auto-deposits (and do them myself the day after the Treasury does there's)...


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## Stevesolar (Dec 21, 2012)

Hi,
it might be due to currency traders/banks closing out their forward exchange contracts on this particular date every month.
Cheers
Steve


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## eastwind (Jun 18, 2016)

I looked back at the last few months and didn't really see a pattern. There was certainly a big dip for Feb 3, but in the last six months the other 3rd's didn't seem to show similar big dips. Some of the 3rds were down but the 2nd and 4th were down days too, so it was just part of the trend.

I found out the hard way that wiring dollars to a bank account and letting the receiving bank do the currency conversion is an invitation to screw the client that at least some banks gladly accept. (For example, I wired a large sum to to a contractor's account at Scotiabank to pay for a renovation and they used a rate of exactly 20.000 when the prevailing exchange rate was around 22.40). 

In subsequent payments I have wired 'fixed foreign currency' and my own bank (Schwab) did the conversion and gave me a rate within 10 or 20 centavos of the 'middle' rate for that day rather than clipping me for 240). The contractor got exactly the number of pesos requested, and I paid the least for them that I could, and so we were both happier, except doing the wire that way requires talking on the phone to Schwab (they call you to confirm the details) so it's more hassle, but definitely worth it.

If you were going to have the money go to a US account, would you need to wire it all every month just as soon as you could or could you collect a few months and batch your wire requests? How much would your US bank charge you for wires? (Schwab reimburses the wire fee if you have enough money in a retirement account with them). Do you have other money (e.g. IRA distributions) that you could combine with the social security into one larger wire? 

What's best for you depends a lot on your individual circumstances and what banks you do business with.


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## MangoTango (Feb 8, 2020)

eastwind said:


> I looked back at the last few months and didn't really see a pattern. There was certainly a big dip for Feb 3, but in the last six months the other 3rd's didn't seem to show similar big dips. Some of the 3rds were down but the 2nd and 4th were down days too, so it was just part of the trend.


I made a generalization when I said the SS wires occurred on the 3rd of every month. It does vary.
The real algorithm calls for it to occur on the 3rd or the last prior bank (US I believe) business day.

So in January 2021 the 3rd was a Sunday, the Friday prior was the 1st (a holiday) so the transfer occurred on Dec 31st.
Have a look at the data leading up to that. (And if you can look at the chart and not simply the daily hi/lo).

As for the thought that dealers close their forex books (by coincidence) on the same day these transfers happen - then I think you would see the trend with other currency pairs (which I don't see).

This is not a piece of scientific research - just a simple observation.


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