# Good news causes bad news



## Phil_expat (Jan 3, 2011)

USA October employment numbers are in! Everyone is surprised at the excellent results. The stock market is up! The bad news: when the market is up the pesos exchange rate goes down! The feds have more reason to lower the stimulus which will cause higher loan interest rates!


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## M.C.A. (Feb 24, 2013)

Dang it...I hope not, sure could use the extra holiday money, so I hope there's more factors that go into this.


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## Asian Spirit (Mar 1, 2010)

mcalleyboy said:


> Dang it...I hope not, sure could use the extra holiday money, so I hope there's more factors that go into this.


If you have the option, the best thing might be to leave it just sit in a local (PH) bank for now and withdrawal when the rates are better and have a late Christmas this year. Either that or if ya know someone at your local bank, have them convert your dollars into British Pounds and then back into Pesos for withdrawal. We have gone that British Pounds route using Western Union and has always been a better deal.


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## cvgtpc1 (Jul 28, 2012)

*But*



Jet Lag said:


> If you have the option, the best thing might be to leave it just sit in a local (PH) bank for now and withdrawal when the rates are better and have a late Christmas this year. Either that or if ya know someone at your local bank, have them convert your dollars into British Pounds and then back into Pesos for withdrawal. We have gone that British Pounds route using Western Union and has always been a better deal.


But when you're doing this kind of thing you're exchanging $100s or $1000s for it to matter right? I love a couple extra 100P in my pocket but are those acrobatics worth it, so I hope it's a bigger deal?


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## Asian Spirit (Mar 1, 2010)

cvgtpc1 said:


> But when you're doing this kind of thing you're exchanging $100s or $1000s for it to matter right? I love a couple extra 100P in my pocket but are those acrobatics worth it, so I hope it's a bigger deal?


I see your point for sure. Actually, I try my best to not get involved in the financial dealing with our $$$ if possible. My wife is quite capable and enjoys getting every last 1/2 cent out of an exchange. It's not the amount for her. More like a hobby of sorts I guess. Anyway, she has messed with all or most of the financial dealings for years and we always come out on top. Who am I to complain---as long as there is enough to have a Champ at Jollibee? Hahaha...


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## cvgtpc1 (Jul 28, 2012)

*Oh*



Jet Lag said:


> I see your point for sure. Actually, I try my best to not get involved in the financial dealing with our $$$ if possible. My wife is quite capable and enjoys getting every last 1/2 cent out of an exchange. It's not the amount for her. More like a hobby of sorts I guess. Anyway, she has messed with all or most of the financial dealings for years and we always come out on top. Who am I to complain---as long as there is enough to have a Champ at Jollibee? Hahaha...



Oh I definitely get how the chase can be more fun than the result or however that expression goes! And I'm sure there'll be a time when I'll worry about getting those extra couple 100P!


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## Asian Spirit (Mar 1, 2010)

cvgtpc1 said:


> Oh I definitely get how the chase can be more fun than the result or however that expression goes! And I'm sure there'll be a time when I'll worry about getting those extra couple 100P!


We definitely need any extra she can wangle when getting cash. I think we are considered a "low income" expat family-Hahaha. It's just that she is so much better at the money management than I have ever been. It's probably raising four daughters that puts us in the deep end of the financial pool. But I have to admit, it's well worth it...


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## Phil_expat (Jan 3, 2011)

Historically 70% of the time when the economy (stock market) is better the exchange rate goes down and visa versa. That was the reason I made this post but this time it is not following that trend! Why this is happening I do not know!


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## M.C.A. (Feb 24, 2013)

*Dollar to Peso exchange rate*



Phil_expat said:


> Historically 70% of the time when the economy (stock market) is better the exchange rate goes down and visa versa. That was the reason I made this post but this time it is not following that trend! Why this is happening I do not know!


Yea... I went to the bank yesterday and the rate was 43.50 Peso's to the dollar so not to bad, sure better than last years rates. so hope this trend continues :fingerscrossed:


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## jon1 (Mar 18, 2012)

I would leverage the current exchange rate as much as possible. Traditionally, it falls before the Holidays and doesn't "recover" until mid-January. Once it falls again, I would start saving up for the next peak and convert as much as possible. I try to do this as often as possible (3-6 months worth of budgets if at all possible). To give my wife incentive to participate in this, I give her a benchmark and anything above that goes directly into her pocket for whatever she wishes..


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## jon1 (Mar 18, 2012)

Here are few graphs gleaned from Historical Exchange Rates | OANDA for the last 3 years. . This kinda gives you a visualization to the cycles that I was talking about..


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## Phil_expat (Jan 3, 2011)

jon1 said:


> Here are few graphs gleaned from Historical Exchange Rates | OANDA for the last 3 years. . This kinda gives you a visualization to the cycles that I was talking about..


There is someone else that use statistic a lot! Predictions can be made but are uncertain because the economy is affected by lots of things like statements from the central bank, terrorist attack or threats even the interest rate changes of the people bank of china. In the recent past I notice that 85% of the time when my stocks was up the exchange rate was down and visa versa now it is 44% of the time. Recently both are up so I am not complaining, my dollar income is up and converting the dollars to pesos is up!


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