# State of Spanish Property Market



## carlnotts (Sep 13, 2012)

Is the Spanish housing market bottoming out?

A recent report kind of suggests it might be but also states that vendors and estate agents are still advertising property at over priced & unrealistic levels.

The report is based on real transaction prices not valuations or estimates like other data is.

It looks at data supplied by the Government; Notaries & NIS who base there figures on valuations rather than actual SOLD price & would like people to believe that prices have only fallen by 26.8% since the peak of 2007.

Take a look and see what you think?

The full report can be found at Spanish Property Insight guide to buying, owning and selling property in Spain under News & Views


----------



## Megsmum (Sep 9, 2012)

Mmmmmm


----------



## carlnotts (Sep 13, 2012)

cambio said:


> Mmmmmm


I would tend to agree, I guess we have to see what happens when the so called Bad Bank is created and what that does with all the toxic real estates it takes from the other banks, will it flood the market & try to sell off the real estate at very very low prices if it does it will affect the resale market yet again.


----------



## mrypg9 (Apr 26, 2008)

As someone pointed out on another thread, sales are up, prices are down.

All these forecasts rely on past data, what has already occurred and predict from that.
One is tempted to be cynical of any forecast related to underlying trends and events in the real economy....the proverbial seaweed might be as useful.

I would hazard a guess that the chief category of buyers in past months are Brits taking advantage of the rise in sterling. That may well bottom out if the UK economy continues to flatline or sterling falls against the euro.

Globalisation and the European free capital market have brought about a situation where what happens in one EU state can be influenced by events in another. So...if as seems likely prices in Spain will fall back to their level of eight to ten years ago and the £ continues to hold its own against the euro, then sales to British buyers may well rise.

But given the regularity these days with which the unexpected and unpredicted occurs in the realm of national economic affairs, who can saywhat will happen with any degree of accuracy?

Now..where's that piece of seaweed


----------



## Megsmum (Sep 9, 2012)

mrypg9 said:


> As someone pointed out on another thread, sales are up, prices are down.
> 
> All these forecasts rely on past data, what has already occurred and predict from that.
> One is tempted to be cynical of any forecast related to underlying trends and events in the real economy....the proverbial seaweed might be as useful.
> ...


:clap2::eyebrows:


----------



## NickZ (Jun 26, 2009)

A couple of things to consider.

Who is selling these days? Anybody selling has a need to sell. That conditions everything from prices to the types of homes being sold.

Who is buying? Between the economy,price trends and credit conditions you have to think the sort of people buying isn't the "normal" group.

Times like this you can't draw broad conclusions on anything. I bet today there are homes that would sell for high prices. The same way there are homes nobody would offer a ham sandwich for.


----------



## carlnotts (Sep 13, 2012)

Some organisations state that August 2012 has been their busiest month for sales since the crash.

Taylor Wimpey España for one claim that August saw 53% of sales going to the British market with some 11% to the Russian market, based on new homes and not resales of course.

I think it may also of helped that the Spanish government lowered VAT to 4% this year which I believe rises to a new level of 10% at the beginning of 2013.

When you look around estate agents windows are full of resale property for sale, some affordable, some grossly over exaggerated where the vendor is still clinging onto the inflated price of the boom years.


----------



## jojo (Sep 20, 2007)

I'm always dubious of companies with a vested interest make reports of success etc. I've seen it so many times - even in the UK I had an agent who, when trying to get me to go with their company bragged on about how many sales, how the market was/is so busy and buoyant - nonsense!!

I think if you want to live and buy in Spain then you have to do it when you can. Waiting for the right time, when its impossible to know, is just wasting time

Jo xxx


----------



## Guest (Oct 16, 2012)

Depends where you are looking to buy ?

Catalonia seems to be very different to the rest of Spain. No bargains here. Only head scratching prices. Is there a recession on here ?


----------



## Alcalaina (Aug 6, 2010)

Danny&Claire said:


> Depends where you are looking to buy ?
> 
> Catalonia seems to be very different to the rest of Spain. No bargains here. Only head scratching prices. Is there a recession on here ?


Why do you think they are so keen to become independent from Spain?


----------



## Alcalaina (Aug 6, 2010)

Found this interesting data which shows that 6% of property sales in Spain last year were to foreigners. Brits are the biggest category (one in five) but still account for only 1.16% of the total. It's easy to overestimate the role of British expats in the Spanish economy.

la compra de viviendas por extranjeros repunta en 2011 y ya supone el 6% de las ventas — idealista.com/news/


----------



## bob_bob (Jan 5, 2011)

If your in your late forties/early fifties, have cash and are convinced that a place is Spain is for you long term then now is the time to buy. Theres a whole generation of people now inheriting property and have a lump of cash to spend.

I'm not talking about buying then hoping to find work, more buying as a holiday home and later on a retirement home.


----------



## mrypg9 (Apr 26, 2008)

Alcalaina said:


> Why do you think they are so keen to become independent from Spain?


For economic factors, yes...but also for long-standing and deeply rooted nationalistic and cultural reasons.


----------



## Alcalaina (Aug 6, 2010)

mrypg9 said:


> For economic factors, yes...but also for long-standing and deeply rooted nationalistic and cultural reasons.


Of course, but the economic factors have turned a minority into a possible majority - we will find out next month if the Spanish government allows the referendum!


----------



## mrypg9 (Apr 26, 2008)

Alcalaina said:


> Of course, but the economic factors have turned a minority into a possible majority - we will find out next month if the Spanish government allows the referendum!


If Catalunya becomes independent, surely other regions will wish to follow the same route.

Economic factors are indeed important and can sometimes sway the balance but cultural and national feelings will always trump economic worries.

If there is a real threat that Spain will fragment I fear my prediction of hard right/military governance will become reality.....


----------



## jojo (Sep 20, 2007)

mrypg9 said:


> If Catalunya becomes independent, surely other regions will wish to follow the same route.
> 
> Economic factors are indeed important and can sometimes sway the balance but cultural and national feelings will always trump economic worries.
> 
> If there is a real threat that Spain will fragment I fear my prediction of hard right/military governance will become reality.....


If it became independent, would it still be in the EU???? and would it still carry its portion of Spains EU debts???

Jo xxx


----------



## Alcalaina (Aug 6, 2010)

jojo said:


> If it became independent, would it still be in the EU???? and would it still carry its portion of Spains EU debts???
> 
> Jo xxx


It would have to apply for EU membership and meet the membership criteria just like any other country. However the Catalan president is hoping there might be some sort of special fast-track arrangement with the EU, which would also apply to Pais Vasco and Scotland if they became independent.

The current bluster about independence is mainly to get fiscal autonomy, i.e. to be able to raise and retain all its own taxes. They made a proposal for this, which Madrid turned down because obviously Madrid needs the tax revenue (Catalonia is the wealthiest region of Spain), so it's all getting quite exciting.


----------



## NickZ (Jun 26, 2009)

Wasn't Slovakia in the EU when it divorced?


----------



## olivefarmer (Oct 16, 2012)

I think the flood gates are open now following Scotland even though I hope and think they won't be successful. Salmond gets a guaranteed continuation of ego trip as Westminster does all it can to sweeten the voters inn the next 2 years .

Belgium separating? Spain? Where will it end!.


----------



## carlnotts (Sep 13, 2012)

bob_bob said:


> If your in your late forties/early fifties, have cash and are convinced that a place is Spain is for you long term then now is the time to buy. Theres a whole generation of people now inheriting property and have a lump of cash to spend.
> 
> I'm not talking about buying then hoping to find work, more buying as a holiday home and later on a retirement home.


I couldn't agree more, although anyone doing this has to be so carful as the resale market is still in my opinion (and it is only my opinion) still greatly over exaggerated, I guess we will have to see what happens when the banks release there stock


----------



## mrypg9 (Apr 26, 2008)

NickZ said:


> Wasn't Slovakia in the EU when it divorced?



No. Czech Republic and Slovakia entered separately in 2004 with other states formerly part of the socialist bloc.

The 'Velvet Divorce' was in the early 1990s, around 1991, I think.

Although economic factors are often the tipping point, they are rarely if ever the prime factor in these independence movements.


Scotland, Slovakia,Catalunya, the Baltic states, the former Yugoslav Republics, Ukraine and so many others all had deeply rooted nationalist movements which had huge popular support. That's why many eventually gained independence, some with considerable violence and bloodshed.

Cultural and national sentiment is played down or disregarded by some on the left and it's true that it is often economic factors that are the last straw, as it were. 
But ignoring the strength of popular nationalist feeling, often whipped up by far-right demagogues, is dangerous.

Opportunistic far-right politicians such as Marine Le Pen and Geert Widers feed on such sentiment and some are now in a position to participate in or influence state governments. 

I really fear that nationalism and separatism will spread in the coming decade...yes, because of the economy but chiefly because of cultura, religious or ethnic reasons


----------



## xgarb (May 6, 2011)

This is on telly in the UK at the moment

A Place in the Sun: Summer Sun, Winter Sun - Series 1 - Channel 4

No doubt generating interest in UK buyers with the big price reductions on the houses they are featuring.


----------



## NickZ (Jun 26, 2009)

mrypg9 said:


> But ignoring the strength of popular nationalist feeling, often whipped up by far-right demagogues, is dangerous.
> 
> Opportunistic far-right politicians such as Marine Le Pen and Geert Widers feed on such sentiment and some are now in a position to participate in or influence state governments.
> 
> I really fear that nationalism and separatism will spread in the coming decade...yes, because of the economy but chiefly because of cultura, religious or ethnic reasons


I'd argue it's spreading because of politicians who forget they work for the people.

Last week an Italian politician was on how Italy had committed to foreign military missions and there fore these had to be funded. At the cost of the Italian people. What he really meant was that people like him had committed to these missions and he'd rather cut health care etc then these missions. 

It's almost a daily message that the people need to save Europe. Suffering in the process. At some point it's only natural that the people being asked to starve start wondering what they gain.


----------



## 3RGJ (Oct 10, 2012)

xgarb said:


> This is on telly in the UK at the moment
> 
> A Place in the Sun: Summer Sun, Winter Sun - Series 1 - Channel 4
> 
> No doubt generating interest in UK buyers with the big price reductions on the houses they are featuring.


Your quote re the above, You are quite right, this is a fascinating programme and I just wonder to those of you living in Spain if this is a true account!!!!!!!!!!. I make sure I tune into this new series every day as it allows me to make decisions that are pending. Take care. 3RGJ.


----------



## jojo (Sep 20, 2007)

3RGJ said:


> Your quote re the above, You are quite right, this is a fascinating programme and I just wonder to those of you living in Spain if this is a true account!!!!!!!!!!. I make sure I tune into this new series every day as it allows me to make decisions that are pending. Take care. 3RGJ.


 I havent seen the latest round of this series, but the older porgrammes I have seen bore no resemblance to living in Spain at all IMO - The programme was designed to look thru "rose tinted spectacles" and didnt cover the hardships, the bad weather, the economic climate, the rules and regulations or the day to day life at all

Jo xxx


----------



## 3RGJ (Oct 10, 2012)

Hi Jo - This new series is designed specifically designed to ignore all the hardships and seems as you say "rose tinted spectacles" and even allows for buyers to believe they can get decent rentals on the properties they buy. Still it is very interesting all the same. I will continue to watch and update you if you wish.........? 3RGJ


----------



## mrypg9 (Apr 26, 2008)

NickZ said:


> I'd argue it's spreading because of politicians who forget they work for the people.
> 
> Last week an Italian politician was on how Italy had committed to foreign military missions and there fore these had to be funded. At the cost of the Italian people. What he really meant was that people like him had committed to these missions and he'd rather cut health care etc then these missions.
> 
> It's almost a daily message that the people need to save Europe. Suffering in the process. At some point it's only natural that the people being asked to starve start wondering what they gain.


My point was that the RESPONSE to all this is resurgent nationalism. Since when have people not complained about some -not all, don't let's exaggerate - politicians not 'serving the people'?

I don't really like terms like 'the people'.'the masses' 'the working class' and so on.
It assumes two things which are not true...1, that these are homogenous groups of like-thinking people and 2 that they have a collective consciousness. They don't.

Times are bad, almost as bad as the thirties. But if 25% are unemployed, 75% are, however poorly paid and precarious their situation may be. 

No-one has been 'asked to starve'. Are you 'starving'? I'm not. Far too many people world-wide are without the means to sustain a decent life. Most of them are not in Europe.

It is in the interests of politicians on the left and on the right to talk up and talk down respectively the gravity of the situation. Things are bad enough without people in need being used as a political tool to further the aims of radicals of left or right.

There are obviously people in the UK and Northern Europe, most of them far from being millionaire status, who in retirement have enough cash to purchase property in Spain. There are very many Spaniards still spending in shops, bars and restaurants.

I'm no way minimising the gravity of the current crisis. I repeat...I fear the emergence of hard-right even military backed governments in Greece and Spain. 
I cannot understand why our so-called leaders can't see the sheer wrongness of their obsession with free market economics.
But we need to take a cool look at society as a whole.
It will be interesting to see the impact of the forthcoming general strikesin Spain and the UK.
I suspect minimal, in both cases. I was asked to speak at a Trades Union conference in the UK next month to discuss the impact of the Coalition's cuts on women, the disabled etc.
It has been cancelled through lack of interest.
Union ballots for strike action have been conspicuous for their poor turnout.
People generally seem resigned and apathetic. 
Apart of course from those taking advantage of the current situation to snap up cheap property...


----------



## Evelina (Nov 5, 2012)

Danny&Claire said:


> Depends where you are looking to buy ?
> 
> Catalonia seems to be very different to the rest of Spain. No bargains here. Only head scratching prices. Is there a recession on here ?


There are bargains in Catalonia - is not as many as in the rest of Spain. For example I'm trying to sell /SNIP/ and I haven't kept the price up; I just want to sell because last year I got divorced and I need to be in UK.


----------



## señorgringo (Apr 5, 2012)

Danny&Claire said:


> Depends where you are looking to buy ?
> 
> Catalonia seems to be very different to the rest of Spain. No bargains here. Only head scratching prices. Is there a recession on here ?


I trade for a living and let me tell you all this: Nobody in economics (or government) ever successfully calls a bottom or a top. Just doesn't happen. Buy when prices reach your comfort level and you find a house you want to spend a part of your life in. The rest is just b.s. and statistics - and like the former the latter often reeks badly.


----------



## señorgringo (Apr 5, 2012)

bob_bob said:


> If your in your late forties/early fifties, have cash and are convinced that a place is Spain is for you long term then now is the time to buy. Theres a whole generation of people now inheriting property and have a lump of cash to spend.
> 
> I'm not talking about buying then hoping to find work, more buying as a holiday home and later on a retirement home.


Yeah, i don't get this either. As a market trader I have learned one thing in my life - people for some reason LOVE to buy the top and sell the bottom. Basic herd instinct.

Look guys - I dont' care if Spain is broke. As long as I like the sun, the people, the food, etc. and as long as the country is politically relatively stable (we shall see - I know) it's a great time to buy. Of course if we have civic unrest that equation changes a bit - but once again it probably depends on where you live.


----------



## mike kelly (Aug 12, 2009)

jojo said:


> If it became independent, would it still be in the EU???? and would it still carry its portion of Spains EU debts???
> 
> Jo xxx


yes, and what about eu citizens living in catalonia? what would their legal status be? would we be become sin papeles?


----------



## señorgringo (Apr 5, 2012)

Time to move to Madrid then ;-) (shudder)


----------



## mike kelly (Aug 12, 2009)

señorgringo said:


> Time to move to Madrid then ;-) (shudder)


not so easy when you already own property in BCN. One question I haven't seen answered anywhere is - what currency would an independent Catalonia have?


----------



## Viajero (Nov 21, 2012)

I think its close to bottoming out. I am in Cataluna and my husband is a broker in Barcelona. He has various properties in Cataluna and Ibiza and they've dropped in value significantly. Agencies here have cut staff by over 50% and many sales are stagnent. For example, we are trying to sell a place in the Gothic Quarter (highly desirable) and despite it's prime location and nice size - we've already dropped the price 50k from the beginning of the year (which value also dropped significantly since 2008) on top of that. It's been on the market since August.

I've seen quite a few apartments in Barcelona still priced for 2007. I am not sure of their success rate, but I imagine they are the people who are not selling out of need- or in denial. Any broker here will tell you it is really tough. What makes it worse are the banks, who compete against their own clients. So an owner refers a client to his/her bank for a mortgage, and the banks undercut by telling the client that they have a list of properties that they will sell for less if they buy for the bank. Fantastic. If you don't have a foreign investor with cash ready to buy, it's almost impossible. It will be interesting to see what happens in the up coming months...


----------



## gus-lopez (Jan 4, 2010)

Well if Cataluña voted for independence it would be voting itself out of the EU as well. It requires unanimous agreement for a new country to enter & Spain won't vote for that will it ? 
Spain has already warned off Scotland (informally) that they won't be in the EU if independence is voted for. 

Spain warns Scotland EU membership not guaranteed

In the event of a yes vote theoretically everyone who is of the ' new' nation living elsewhere, could be deported back to their  new country as they are no longer EU citizens & would have to apply for non-eu residencia. 

If either was in the EU then the use of the Euro is obligatory.


----------



## NickZ (Jun 26, 2009)

Half the EU doesn't use the Euro. It's likely the Greeks will get fed up sooner or later and leave the Euro.

It's also highly unlikely any body would be kicked out of the EU. Do people really think companies would be happy being told there is a border and customs agent at the border now?


----------



## mike kelly (Aug 12, 2009)

gus-lopez said:


> Well if Cataluña voted for independence it would be voting itself out of the EU as well. It requires unanimous agreement for a new country to enter & Spain won't vote for that will it ?
> Spain has already warned off Scotland (informally) that they won't be in the EU if independence is voted for.
> 
> Spain warns Scotland EU membership not guaranteed
> ...


I'm interested in how EU citizens living in an independent Catalonia would fare.


----------



## mike kelly (Aug 12, 2009)

NickZ said:


> Half the EU doesn't use the Euro. It's likely the Greeks will get fed up sooner or later and leave the Euro.
> 
> It's also highly unlikely any body would be kicked out of the EU. Do people really think companies would be happy being told there is a border and customs agent at the border now?


It is possible that all new EU states will have to have the euro as their currency. That could apply to Catalonia but only if it became a new member of the EU. If it is outside the EU, what currency will it have? It surely cannot have the Euro if it is not an EU member?


----------



## NickZ (Jun 26, 2009)

mike kelly said:


> It is possible that all new EU states will have to have the euro as their currency. That could apply to Catalonia but only if it became a new member of the EU. If it is outside the EU, what currency will it have? It surely cannot have the Euro if it is not an EU member?


To have the Euro you need to pass the various tests to enter the Euro. You also have to accept the limits.

I doubt many of the current candidate countries meet all the Euro requirements.

Euro convergence criteria - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

If we believe Wiki even the UK wouldn't come close to meeting the Euro standards.


----------



## PedroM (Jan 11, 2011)

Fotocasa's stats are are very reliable in an industry where its extremely difficult to get the truth. 

The prices will only stop falling when there are as many buyers as there are sellers. The banks and the increasing unemployed Spanish will be forced to offload their properties. Who is going to buy them? International property funds will step in but only when we are near the bottom. With Spain's problems that's a few years off at best.


----------

